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Govt eyes N1.49tn electricity export revenue

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The Federal Government is projecting nearly $1bn (about N1.49tn) in annual revenue from electricity exports to 15 West African Countries under the Economic Community of West African States sub-region from June 2026.

The earnings are based on what a full 600 megawatts export capacity is capable of generating at the prevailing regional tariff, as Nigeria pushes toward full participation in the West African power market following a landmark grid synchronisation exercise carried out this month.

The Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, hinted at the new revenue stream at a press conference on Wednesday in Abuja, where he announced that Nigeria successfully conducted a grid synchronisation test with 15 West African countries for four hours on November 8, 2025.

He said the development positions Nigeria to fully exploit its strategic role as the regional power hub under the West African Power Pool, especially as generation companies ramp up compliance with free-governor control, an operational discipline crucial to regional grid stability.

On November 8, 2025, Nigeria successfully conducted a grid synchronisation test connecting the national electricity grid with the interconnected West African Power Pool system.

The synchronisation exercise, conducted between 05:04 am and 09:04 am, involved the Nigerian grid, which includes the Niger Republic and parts of Benin and Togo, and the rest of West Africa’s interconnected systems covering Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Mali.

The minister said for four uninterrupted hours, power flowed seamlessly across national borders, operating at a single stable frequency and proving that West Africa is now technically capable of functioning as a unified power bloc. This exercise represents the first time in history that Nigeria has operated in a unified, stable, and fully harmonised configuration with the rest of the sub-region.

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But beyond the latest achievement, the minister said the government is working toward achieving permanent grid synchronisation by June 2026, with a second 48-hour test run planned once ongoing discussions with regional operators are concluded.

The Executive Director, Market Operations at the Nigerian Independent System Operator, Edmund Eje, said Nigeria currently allocates 600MW for its bilateral power trade agreements each day. According to data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, Nigeria continues to offer the cheapest electricity tariffs in West Africa.

NERC figures show that the average approved end-user tariff in Nigeria is about $0.07 per kilowatt-hour (approximately N100.27/kWh), representing just 35.71 per cent of the average $0.19/kWh charged by several other countries in the sub-region.

If exported power is billed at this regional tariff, government officials estimate that delivering the full 600MW allocation could generate close to $1bn in annual revenue.

A breakdown of the figures shows that exporting 600MW, equivalent to 600,000 kilowatts, at the prevailing tariff of $0.19 per kilowatt-hour would fetch about $114,000 every hour. This translates to roughly $2.73m daily and an estimated $998.6m in annual revenue.

The projection assumes uninterrupted export of the contracted volume once a permanent grid synchronisation is completed at a tentative date of June 2026. Officials say the revenue could provide a critical buffer for the power sector, help reduce liquidity shortfalls, and accelerate expansion of regional energy markets.

The government, however, assured electricity consumers that exporting power to West African countries will not compromise supply to the domestic market. Speaking further in his address, Adelabu noted that the milestone also marks the most successful synchronisation attempt since 2007, when a trial collapsed after seven minutes.

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He said, “The benefits of synchronisation with other WAPP countries would extend directly to the Nigerian people. A more stable grid improves the performance of essential services such as hospitals, water supply, transport systems, digital infrastructure, and public institutions.

“As ongoing transmission expansion projects, including the North-Core line, the Ajegunle 330 kV Substation, the Kaduna–Kano transmission upgrades, and the Gwagwalada–Gurara connection, are completed, synchronisation will help deliver more reliable power to homes and industries nationwide. While expectations must remain realistic, this achievement provides the structural foundation for the improvements Nigerians have long awaited.”

The minister added that Nigeria’s transmission wheeling capacity has risen to 8,500 megawatts, creating a more stable backbone for future export commitments. However, despite this available capacity, low demand from the electricity distribution companies has kept actual generation at around 5,000MW, leaving about 3,500MW stranded within the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry. The industry achieved an all-time generation peak of 5,801.44MW earlier this year.

He said, “Today, the minimum grid capacity we can even communicate is 8,500MW of capacity. If our generation reaches 8,000MW today, the grid can comfortably and conveniently transmit it. We are even sure that it is higher than that, but it is put at a conservative level, at 8,500 MW.

“We have the capacity and the facility to generate more power in Nigeria, and investment is still open to interested power sector investors. As long as there is demand in the other 14 countries of West Africa, Nigeria can easily export energy to those countries.”

Earlier, at the NISO Maiden Stakeholders’ Engagement themed “Building a Resilient and Competitive Electricity Market – The Role of NISO,” Managing Director Abdul Mohammed said the successful grid synchronisation represents more than a technical achievement.

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NISO Executive Director for Systems Operation, Nafisatu Ali, said that 60 per cent of Nigeria’s power-generating plants have now adopted the operating regime of free governor control, significantly boosting the country’s readiness for cross-border electricity trade.

She explained that since the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission issued the directive on governor control, compliance has steadily improved.  “Before now, compliance was very low, about 20 per cent. But as of the last check two days ago, at least 60 per cent of generators have implemented the three-governor system,” Ali said.

She noted that this advancement was evident during the recent grid synchronisation test, when a generator tripped in Côte d’Ivoire, and Nigerian generators responded automatically, maintaining stability.

“The intention is to achieve 100 per cent compliance. This system has already improved grid resilience, ensuring automatic responses whenever there is a tripping event,” she added.

The Free governor control is a critical operational regime in power systems that allows generating units to automatically respond to changes in grid frequency. When a generator trips or demand suddenly spikes, FGC enables other units to adjust output instantly, stabilising the grid without manual intervention.

With the system in place, Nigerian Gencos can respond automatically to frequency disturbances, reducing grid instability and strengthening investor confidence in the country’s electricity market.

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FG urged to expand grazing reserves nationwide

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Livestock and agriculture stakeholders have called on the Federal Government to fast-track the phased development of grazing reserves beyond the three pilot locations to at least one reserve in each of the six geopolitical zones. They welcomed the initiative as a step in the right direction.

The call followed the Federal Government’s commencement of a phased grazing reserve development programme, beginning with pilot sites at Wawa-Zange in Gombe State, Wase in Plateau State and Kawu in the Bwari Area Council of the Federal Capital Territory.

The Ministry of Livestock Development had said it was working with other ministries, state governments and the private sector to ensure the reserves have “good public schools for the pastoralists, for their children to attend… access roads and… public healthcare.”

In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, stakeholders, including the National Secretary of the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria, Aliyu Gotomo, described the move as overdue but cautioned that the scope remained limited.

“Generally, the development of grazing reserves is the most essential thing that is required for pastoralism development. And I think it’s a welcome development that they have started. At least we have started somewhere,” Gotomo said.

He added that properly developed reserves with water, veterinary services and access roads would reduce transhumance and insecurity. “If these things are provided, the major movement from one state to the other in search of greener pastures will be reduced. So, all the conflicts from farmer-herder and other insecurity issues will also be alleviated,” he said.

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However, Gotomo urged the government to expand the programme. He said, “Considering about 417 grazing reserves across the states, I think the number is very, very small. They could have started at least with one in each of the political zones,” stressing that the scale did not match “the population of livestock we have in Nigeria and the number of people engaged in pastoralism.”

He also called for deeper engagement with pastoralists, local governments and traditional rulers to ensure ownership and sustainability.

“The actual beneficiaries, the native pastoralists, should be properly engaged… The local government areas and traditional rulers should also be involved so that proper maintenance and sustainability can be adhered to,” he added.

Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Agriculture and Allied Group, Tunde Banjoko, also welcomed the initiative but echoed concerns about regional balance and transparency.

“I think the idea of phased grazing by the Federal Government is a very good initiative. I also believe it will reduce the frequent clashes we are having with farmers,” Banjoko said, adding that it would improve quality and returns for farmers and attract private investment.

He warned, however, that concentration of reserves in limited areas could create new tensions.

“Out of the 417 grazing reserves, except for two in the South-West, I’m not sure there’s any in the South-South or South-East. So, what is the alternative for them?” he asked.

Banjoko urged the government to ensure national spread: “We need to also provide more alternatives in the South-South, South-West and South-East so that we can reduce these frequent clashes in this region as well.”

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He further called for openness in implementation. “People want to see the pictures; people want to see how far they have gone. If there’s enough transparency, then the private sector will come in,” he added, while stressing the need for strong regulations, stakeholder engagement and traceability systems in livestock management.

President of the Commercial Dairy Ranchers Association of Nigeria, Muhammadu Abubakar, said the pilot phase should serve as a model for nationwide rollout.

“The government embarking on a phased grazing reserve development is a good idea. At least the first three should serve as a model,” Abubakar said.

The CODARAN chief noted that the pilots would allow the government to test and refine the approach before scaling up.

“That is where you can experiment with the workability… Look at the downs and the ups and then make amends. Then you will have a model that you just pick and plug in other reserves,” he said.

Abubakar expressed confidence in the public-private approach, noting that challenges would become clearer as implementation progresses.

“When that takes off, we from the private sector will be involved, and then we’re likely going to point out areas that should be corrected or amended,” he added.

The stakeholders agreed that while the pilot programme marks a positive start, expanding the reserves across all zones and carrying communities along would be critical to reducing conflicts and modernising Nigeria’s livestock sector.

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Bread prices: No significant drop in flour price, variables — Bakers

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Premium Breadmakers Association of Nigeria, PBAN, has refuted a viral social media post claiming that the price of flour has plummeted to between N35,000 to N40,000 per 50kg bag. The post further accuses bread makers of “wickedly” refusing to reduce the prices of bread to reflect the drop.

A statement by Emmanuel Onyoh, General Secretary, PBAN, said that the claims are false, and a calculated attempt to incite the Nigerian public against “hardworking bakers who are struggling to stay afloat.”

According to the statement, “The Reality of Flour Pricing as of today, December 16, 2025, the price of a 50kg bag of wheat flour is between N55,000 and N62,000(depending on the brand and where you’re buying from) significantly higher than the fabricated figures circulating online. While some flour millers recently announced a marginal price reduction of approximately N2,000, this is a “drop in the ocean” compared to the overall production deficit”.

“Mathematically, a N2,000 reduction on a bag of flour translates to about N20 saving on the family sized loaf. This small margin is immediately swallowed by the skyrocketing costs of other essential inputs such as yeast, improver, margarine and preservative”.

The General Secretary also revealed what he called “The “Hidden” Costs of Your Daily Bread” . He said, “Needless to say, that besides flour, there are other various ingredients required for operational cost and processes in bread. PBAN members are currently battling a “perfect storm” of economic pressures that make a price reduction impossible at this time,”

He also emphasized the cost of electricity and the diesel required to power industrial ovens and generators, adding that 90% of baking machinery are imported. The replacement cost of equipment

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and repairs had increased tremendously in the past few years.

“We are facing unprecedented expenses in fueling and maintaining distribution vehicles to get bread to your neighbourhoods amidst deteriorating road networks. In compliance with the new National Minimum Wage of N70,000, our wage bills have increased significantly. We choose to pay our staff fairly rather than shut down. Bakers are currently burdened by a “spectrum of taxes” from federal, state, and local government agencies, many of which are overlapping and punitive.

“The Premium Breadmakers Association of Nigeria,PBAN, as a responsible association that is mindful of the shrink on disposable income of consumers, we have advised our members to maintain same quality standard and consider introducing bread variants in sizes that falls/fits into various consumer strata.

“We assure the general public that our members shall not hesitate to reduce the prices of bread the moment the cost dynamics and the Nigerian economy reflect a genuine and sustainable downward trend.

“Our primary goal remains the provision of quality, safe, and affordable bread that meets the highest regulatory standards,” he assured.

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FG recorded N30tn revenue shortfall in 2025 – Edun

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The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, opened up on Tuesday that the Federal Government recorded a significant revenue shortfall in the 2025 fiscal year.

He noted that while the Federal Government projected N40.8tn revenue for this year, it ended up making only N10.7tn.

Edun made the disclosure while appearing before the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper.

He recalled that the Federal Government had projected a revenue target of N40.8tn in 2025 to fund the N54.9tn “budget of restoration,” designed to stabilise the economy, secure peace and lay the foundation for long-term prosperity.

However, the minister said current fiscal performance shows that total revenue for the year is likely to end at about N10.7tn.

According to him, the sharp shortfall is largely attributable to weak oil and gas earnings, particularly Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax from oil and gas companies, alongside persistent underperformance across several revenue subheads.

“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7tn compared to the N40.8tn projection,” Edun told lawmakers.

The minister’s disclosure on Tuesday is in sharp contrast to the declaration by President Bola Tinubu in September that the Federal Government had already met its revenue target

“Today I can stand here before you to brag: Nigeria is not borrowing.

We have met our revenue target for the year and we met it in August,” Tinubu had told members of  The Buhari Organisation who visited him at the Presidential Villa in Abuja.

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However, speaking on Tuesday, the finance minister admitted that revenue shortfall harmpered the implementation of the N54.9tn 2025 budget.

He explained that although the Federal Government also raised about N14.1tn through borrowing, the combined inflows still fell far short of what was required to fully fund the 2025 budget.

Despite the revenue gap, Edun said the government had continued to meet critical obligations through what he described as prudent treasury management.

He noted that salaries, statutory transfers, as well as domestic and foreign debt service obligations, had been paid as and when due through “skillful, imaginative and creative handling” of available resources.

Providing further insight into expenditure performance, the minister said capital releases to ministries, departments and agencies in 2024 stood at N5.2tn out of a budgeted N7.1tn, representing 73 per cent performance.

He added that total capital expenditure, including multilateral and bilateral-funded projects, reached N11.1tn out of N13.7tn, or 84 per cent.

The minister cautioned that expenditure plans heavily tied to oil revenues must remain flexible, warning against committing the government to spending obligations based on projections that have consistently failed to materialise.

“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” he said.

Also speaking at the session, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, said the MTEF and FSP were developed through extensive consultations with key stakeholders, including government agencies, the private sector, civil society organisations and development partners

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Bagudu acknowledged that revenue assumptions remained a subject of intense debate within the Economic Management Team, explaining that while some members favoured conservative projections informed by historical performance, others argued for ambitious targets to compel revenue-generating agencies to improve efficiency and collection.

He disclosed that although the government retained an oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day for policy planning, a more cautious assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day was adopted for revenue calculations in the 2026 budget framework.

Earlier, the Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, James Faleke, called for a more critical and realistic approach to budget preparation, warning against bloated budgets that often face serious implementation challenges.

Nigeria’s revenue performance in 2025 has been undermined by a combination of structural and cyclical factors.

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