Business

Petrol war: Importers outpace domestic refineries with 62% supply in 2025

Published

2 months ago

January 19, 2026

Petrol importation remained the dominant source of fuel consumed in Nigeria in 2025, accounting for 62.47 per cent of the country’s total Premium Motor Spirit consumption.

This trend persisted despite the commencement of operations, steady ramp-up in production and distribution of petrol by domestic refineries, notably the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, alongside state-owned refineries and several modular facilities, as revealed in the latest midstream and downstream sector factsheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

According to the newly released NMDPRA factsheet on the state of the midstream and downstream petroleum sector, as analysed by our correspondent on Sunday, total national petrol consumption by Nigerians stood at approximately 18.97 billion litres in 2025, with oil marketing companies accounting for 11.85 billion litres through imports, highlighting the market’s continued dependence on foreign supply.

This means that nearly two-thirds of petrol consumed by Nigerians in 2025 was sourced from imports, while domestic refineries contributed about 7.54 billion litres, representing 37.53 per cent of total consumption, the regulator stated.

These totals were derived by applying the daily average consumption to the number of days in each month. The data, which are based on volumes trucked into the domestic market, underscore Nigeria’s continued dependence on fuel imports, even as the Dangote refinery, currently the country’s only operational large-scale refinery, ramped up supply during the year.

Meanwhile, the volume of petrol imports is expected to decline significantly in 2026 if the Federal Government proceeds with the planned implementation of a 15 per cent import tariff on Premium Motor Spirit, slated to take effect in the first quarter of 2025, in line with a policy memo approved by President Bola Tinubu.

For decades, Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer, relied almost entirely on imported petrol following the prolonged underperformance of its state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. This dependence deepened after the refineries became largely dormant, forcing the country to meet domestic demand through imports financed with scarce foreign exchange and, for years, supported by a costly petrol subsidy regime.

The structure of the market began to shift in late 2024 with the commencement of operations at the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, widely regarded as a potential turning point for Nigeria’s downstream sector. The refinery, alongside smaller modular refineries and limited output from state-owned facilities, was expected to significantly cut import volumes, improve energy security, and stabilise fuel supply across the country.

However, regulatory data from the regulatory Authority show that while domestic refining and distribution improved steadily in 2025, imports remained dominant. The NMDPRA attributes this to factors including the gradual ramp-up of refining operations, crude supply arrangements, logistics constraints, and demand fluctuations following the full deregulation of petrol pricing.

2025 represents the first full year of large-scale domestic Premium Motor Spirit supply, limiting year-on-year comparisons, particularly as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery only commenced petrol distribution in the final quarter of 2024.

Regulatory data showed that between October and December 2024, total petrol consumption stood at 4.77 billion litres, out of which imports accounted for 3.61 billion litres, while domestic refineries supplied about 1.17 billion litres.

Against this backdrop, the latest midstream and downstream factsheet provides one of the clearest regulatory snapshots yet of Nigeria’s petrol market in a post-subsidy environment, highlighting both the gains made in domestic supply and the structural challenges that continue to sustain the country’s reliance on imported fuel.

A breakdown of the factsheet showed that Dangote refinery accounted for virtually all domestic PMS supply in 2025, supplying an average of between 17 million and 32 million litres per day, depending on the month, and a total of 7.534.9 billion litres for the entire year.

Based on its supply framework with the regulator and the Federal Government, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery was expected to deliver about 600 million litres of petrol monthly, translating to an annual benchmark of 7.2 billion litres.

However, NMDPRA data showed that the refinery supplied 7.54 billion litres in 2025, representing a shortfall of about 336 million litres, or roughly 4.7 per cent below the annual target, despite improved output towards the end of the year.

In December 2025, domestic supply rose sharply to 32 million litres per day, the highest monthly average for the year, while total domestic deliveries reached 992 million litres, signalling gradual stabilisation of operations.

The factsheet showed that total petrol consumption fluctuated significantly throughout the year, rising from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December, reflecting seasonal demand, logistics dynamics, and pricing conditions.

A month-on-month breakdown showed that Nigeria’s petrol consumption showed wide fluctuations throughout 2025, rising from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December, representing an overall increase of about 23.7 per cent over the year.

Total consumption declined sharply by 11.6 per cent, from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.41 billion litres in February, before rebounding by 11.8 per cent in March to 1.58 billion litres. Demand rose further in April to 1.66 billion litres, a 5.0 per cent increase, and peaked in May at 1.69 billion litres, up 1.8 per cent.

This was followed by a steep 14.6 per cent drop in June to 1.44 billion litres. Consumption recovered modestly in July (1.46 billion litres, up 1.6 per cent) and August (1.50 billion litres, up 2.5 per cent), before falling to its lowest level of the year in September at 1.31 billion litres, a 12.4 per cent decline.

Demand then surged by 33.8 per cent in October to 1.76 billion litres, dipped by 9.7 per cent in November to 1.59 billion litres, and climbed strongly by 24.4 per cent in December to 1.97 billion litres, the highest monthly level recorded in 2025.

Petrol imports by oil marketing companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited tracked these consumption movements and remained the dominant source of supply throughout the year.

Imports rose from 765.7 million litres in January to 770 million litres in February, an increase of 0.6 per cent, before jumping by 15.5 per cent in March to 889.7 million litres. Volumes dipped slightly by 3.2 per cent in April to 861 million litres, but surged sharply in May to 1.20 billion litres, representing a 39 per cent increase and accounting for about 71 per cent of total consumption for the month.

Imports declined by 18.3 per cent in June to 978 million litres, rose again by 14.4 per cent in July to 1.12 billion litres, and fell by 26.9 per cent in August to 818.4 million litres. September imports dropped further by 16.3 per cent to 685.1 million litres, before climbing by 30.8 per cent in October to 895.9 million litres.

November recorded a sharp spike to 1.56 billion litres, a 74.4 per cent increase, making imports equivalent to almost 98 per cent of total consumption that month. Imports eased in December to 1.31 billion litres, down 16.3 per cent, but still represented about two-thirds of monthly demand.

Similarly, domestic refinery supply, largely from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, showed a gradual but uneven improvement over the year. Supply rose from 592.1 million litres in January to 694.4 million litres in February, an increase of 17.3 per cent, and edged up further to 709.9 million litres in March, up 2.2 per cent. Output declined in April by 9.1 per cent to 645 million litres, and fell further in May by 11.1 per cent to 573.5 million litres.

The downward trend continued in June and July, with supply dropping to 543 million litres (down 5.3 per cent) and 511.5 million litres (down 5.8 per cent), respectively. Domestic supply rebounded in August by 20.0 per cent to 613.8 million litres, dipped slightly in September by 11.1 per cent to 545.6 million litres, and eased further in October to 530.1 million litres, down 2.8 per cent.

Output improved again in November to 585 million litres, a 10.4 per cent increase, before surging sharply in December to 992 million litres, representing a 69.6 per cent month-on-month rise and the strongest domestic supply performance of the year.

A further breakdown showed that in January, imports accounted for about 48 per cent of daily petrol consumption, while domestic refineries supplied around 37 per cent. Import dependence widened significantly in May, with marketers meeting about 71 per cent of daily demand, while domestic refineries contributed just 34 per cent. However, by December, domestic supply rose to about 50 per cent of daily consumption, narrowing the gap with imports, which accounted for roughly 66 per cent, reflecting the highest level of domestic participation recorded in 2025.

Imports consistently exceeded domestic supply in most months. In May, for instance, marketers imported 1.20 billion litres, representing about 71 per cent of total consumption for that month, while domestic refineries supplied just 573.5 million litres.

In contrast, December recorded the narrowest gap, with imports of 1.31 billion litres against the domestic supply of 992 million litres, as Dangote ramped up output and daily consumption rose to 63.7 million litres.

A further breakdown of the data showed that in January 2025, Nigeria recorded a daily average petrol consumption of 51.5 million litres, translating to 1.60 billion litres for the month. Of this volume, petrol importing marketers supplied an average of 24.7 million litres per day, amounting to 765.7 million litres. In comparison, domestic refineries delivered an average of 19.1 million litres daily, or 592.1 million litres in total.

In February, daily average consumption moderated to 50.4 million litres, with total monthly demand of 1.41 billion litres. Imports accounted for an average of 27.5 million litres per day, or 770 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 24.8 million litres daily, amounting to 694.4 million litres.

For March, average daily consumption rose slightly to 50.9 million litres, bringing total demand to 1.58 billion litres. Petrol imports averaged 28.7 million litres per day, totalling 889.7 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 22.9 million litres daily, or 709.9 million litres for the month.

In April, consumption increased further to a daily average of 55.2 million litres, with total demand of 1.66 billion litres. Importers supplied 28.7 million litres per day, amounting to 861 million litres, while domestic refinery output averaged 21.5 million litres daily, totalling 645 million litres.

Data for May showed average daily consumption of 54.4 million litres, translating to 1.69 billion litres for the month. Imports rose sharply to an average of 38.6 million litres per day, or 1.20 billion litres, while domestic refinery supply declined to 18.5 million litres daily, amounting to 573.5 million litres.

In June, daily average consumption fell to 48.0 million litres, with total demand of 1.44 billion litres. Petrol imports averaged 32.6 million litres per day, totalling 978 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 18.1 million litres daily, or 543 million litres.

For July, average daily consumption declined slightly to 47.2 million litres, bringing monthly demand to 1.46 billion litres. Importers supplied 36.1 million litres per day, amounting to 1.12 billion litres, while domestic refineries delivered 16.5 million litres daily, totalling 511.5 million litres.

In August, daily consumption improved to 48.4 million litres, with a total demand of 1.50 billion litres. Imports averaged 26.4 million litres per day, or 818.4 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 19.8 million litres daily, amounting to 613.8 million litres.

September recorded the lowest consumption levels of the year, with daily average demand at 43.8 million litres and total consumption of 1.31 billion litres. Import volumes averaged 22.1 million litres per day, totalling 685.1 million litres, while domestic refinery supply stood at 17.6 million litres daily, or 545.6 million litres.

In October, consumption rebounded sharply to a daily average of 56.7 million litres, translating to 1.76 billion litres for the month. Imports averaged 28.9 million litres per day, amounting to 895.9 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 17.1 million litres daily, totalling 545.6 million litres.

For November, average daily consumption eased to 52.9 million litres, with total demand of 1.59 billion litres. Importing marketers supplied an average of 52.1 million litres per day, totalling 1.56 billion litres, while domestic refinery output averaged 19.5 million litres daily, amounting to 585 million litres.

In December, petrol consumption surged to its highest level of the year, averaging 63.7 million litres per day and reaching 1.97 billion litres in total. Imports accounted for an average of 42.2 million litres per day, or 1.31 billion litres, while domestic refineries recorded their strongest performance of the year, supplying an average of 32.0 million litres daily, totalling 992 million litres.

Since the Dangote Petroleum Refinery began phased commercial operations in late 2024, its officials and some industry stakeholders have repeatedly asserted that the facility has the capacity to satisfy Nigeria’s petrol needs and reduce, if not eliminate, the need for imports.

Built with an ambitious 650,000‑barrel‑per‑day capacity, the plant has been positioned by its backers as a potential game‑changer for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector

In a statement outlining the refinery’s production profile, Anthony Chiejina, Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, said the plant was already producing above current national demand. He stated:

“Our refinery is currently loading over 45 million litres of PMS and 25 million litres of diesel daily, which exceeds Nigeria’s demand.”

Chiejina added that the refinery’s output was supporting nationwide supply stability and reducing dependency on imported products, with improved local production helping to moderate foreign exchange outflows and strengthen the naira.

Recently, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, revealed that marketers had been sourcing all their petrol supplies from Dangote and that “nobody is importing now,” even during high‑demand periods such as the Christmas season. He said:

“Well, since Dangote has reduced his price, and we have not complained of a shortage of products. There is no importation. So all the supplies we are getting now are from Dangote.”

Also, in earlier remarks reported in 2025, the Dangote group chairman, Aliko Dangote, asserted that the refinery had sufficient refined products in storage to meet domestic needs, saying:

“Right now, we have more than half a billion litres in storage. The refinery is producing enough refined products, gasoline, diesel, and kerosene to meet all of Nigeria’s needs.”

However, these claims remain contested. While some marketers and refinery officials describe importation as unnecessary under current supply arrangements, others note that domestic refining capacity has not yet consistently matched national consumption, and that imports continue to play a role in bridging supply gaps.

Commenting in an earlier report, renowned energy economist Professor Wumi Iledare, noted that Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol has declined but has not been eliminated. He also warned against claims that fuel importation has ended following increased domestic supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

In a personal note titled “Dangote Refinery, Petrol Imports, and Market Reality,” Iledare said recent assertions that Nigeria no longer imports petrol reflect “understandable optimism” but overstate the economic reality of the downstream oil market.

“Recent claims that petrol importation into Nigeria has ended because Dangote Refinery now meets domestic demand reflect understandable optimism, but they overstate economic reality.

Dangote Refinery has significantly improved domestic supply conditions and reduced Nigeria’s marginal reliance on imported petrol. However, neither Dangote Refinery nor petroleum marketers determine national supply outcomes,” he said.

Iledare, who also serves as Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Abuja, acknowledged that the Dangote Refinery has significantly improved domestic supply conditions and reduced Nigeria’s marginal dependence on imported petrol.

However, he stressed that neither the refinery nor the petroleum marketers determines national supply outcomes. According to him, Nigeria’s downstream petrol market operates within an oligopolistic, import-parity–anchored framework, where prices and supply stability are shaped by the option to import, rather than the physical presence of imported cargoes.

“Nigeria’s downstream petrol market operates within an oligopolistic, import-parity–anchored framework, where prices and supply stability are disciplined by the option to import, not merely the act of importing.

Even when no petrol cargoes are landing, the credible threat of imports remains the market anchor. Importation also continues to serve as a risk-management tool for stock security, demand surges, logistics disruptions, and refinery operational risks,” Iledare said, adding that importation continues to function as a risk-management tool for stock security, demand surges, logistics disruptions, and refinery operational risks.

The energy economist further noted that the Petroleum Industry Act entrenches liberalisation and competition in the downstream sector, leaving no room for discretionary declarations that petrol imports have ended.

“The PIA does not permit discretionary declarations that imports have ended. Sustainable price stability and energy security arise from market discipline, infrastructure efficiency, foreign exchange liquidity, and regulatory credibility, not announcements,” he said.

Iledare argued that the appropriate policy narrative should focus on reduced marginal import dependence, rather than import elimination, warning that imprecise language could undermine policy credibility.

“The correct policy framing, therefore, is reduced marginal import dependence, not import elimination. Precision in language matters because credibility in energy policy is built on economic fundamentals, not celebratory headlines,” he added.

In his expert opinion, the Chief Executive Officer of petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said the new data indicates that Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has grown significantly over the past three years, rising from less than five per cent in 2022 to about 40 per cent in 2025.

Olatide, who disclosed this in a telephone conversation on Sunday, described the development as a major milestone in the country’s long-standing quest to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.

“In 2022, local refining was less than five per cent. But three years later, it has increased to around 40 per cent according to NMDPRA. I think that is good, significant, and a big milestone,” Olatide said.

He explained that while the progress was commendable, Nigeria must push further to achieve meaningful macroeconomic stability. According to him, domestic refining must account for at least 70 per cent of national fuel consumption, with imports limited to 30 per cent.

“Local refining needs to be 70 per cent while import takes 30 per cent. That is the point where this would have direct influence on our economy, create more jobs, stabilise our naira, and deliver other benefits,” he stated.

Olatide noted that 2025 marked a turning point for the sector, largely driven by improved refinery performance and policy shifts aimed at boosting local supply.

He expressed optimism that subsequent industry reports would reflect further improvements. “By and large, I think in the year 2025, we have had a massive improvement and surge in local refining. Hopefully, subsequent reports will go up from the local refining angle, because that is what we need for economic stability,” he added.

He also identified crude oil availability as a critical constraint, particularly for the Dangote Refinery, which plays a dominant role in Nigeria’s refining landscape. Olatide said increasing crude allocation to the refinery could significantly reduce fuel imports.

“I hope in the new year, Dangote would have further access to crude, up from 30 to 40 per cent. More access to crude will really help, and then importation will reduce. The reason importation is still competing is largely because of pricing,” he explained.

Despite the positive outlook, Olatide raised concerns over conflicting production figures being reported by industry stakeholders. He pointed to recent claims by the new Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Refinery, David Bird, who said the refinery was loading about 1,000 trucks daily, equivalent to roughly 50 million litres of petroleum products.

“If you put those figures together, it suggests Dangote alone is doing about 60 to 70 per cent of our daily consumption,” Olatide said.

However, he noted that official figures from the NMDPRA paint a different picture. “NMDPRA is saying local refineries, including Dangote, are doing between 37 and 40 per cent. So clearly, there are conflicts in the reporting.”

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Business

Court freezes N448m assets in Keystone Bank debt recovery suit

Published

9 hours ago

April 1, 2026

Newsbreak365_Admin

The Federal High Court in Lagos has ordered the freezing of funds and assets valued at N448,263,172.41 in a debt recovery suit instituted by Keystone Bank Limited against five defendants.

The order was made on March 26, 2026, by Justice Chukwujekwu Aneke following an ex parte application moved by Keystone Bank’s counsel Mofesomo Tayo-Oyetibo (SAN), against Relic Resources, Olufunmilayo Emmanuella Alabi, Uwadiale Donald Agenmonmen, The Magnificent Multi Services Limited, and Raedial Farms Limited.

In his ruling, Justice Aneke granted a Mareva injunction restraining the defendants, whether by themselves, their agents, privies, or assigns, from withdrawing, transferring, dissipating, or otherwise dealing with funds, shares, dividends, and other financial instruments standing to their credit in any bank or financial institution in Nigeria, up to the sum in dispute.

The court further directed all banks and financial institutions within the jurisdiction to forthwith preserve any funds belonging to the defendants upon being served with the order.

The said institutions were also ordered to depose to affidavits within seven days of service, disclosing the balances in all accounts maintained by the defendants, together with the relevant statements of account.

In addition, the court granted a preservative order restraining the defendants from disposing of, alienating, or otherwise encumbering any movable or immovable property, including any future or contingent interests, up to the value of the alleged indebtedness.

The court also granted leave for substituted service of the originating and other court processes on the second and third defendants by courier delivery to their last known addresses.

The matter was adjourned to April 9, 2026, for mention.

According to the originating processes before the court, the suit arises from a N500 million overdraft facility granted by the claimant to the first defendant on March 28, 2023, for a tenure of 365 days at an interest rate of 32 per cent per annum.

The claimant averred that the facility, initially secured by a $200,000 cash collateral and subsequently by a mortgaged property located at Itunu City, Epe, Lagos, expired on March 27, 2024, leaving an outstanding indebtedness of N448,263,172.41 as at October 31, 2024.

In the affidavit in support of the application, the claimant alleged that the facility was diverted for personal use by the third defendant and channelled through the fourth and fifth defendant companies.

It further contended that the first defendant is no longer a going concern and has failed, refused, and neglected to liquidate the outstanding indebtedness despite several demands made between May and October 2025.

The claimant also expressed apprehension that the defendants may dissipate or conceal their assets, thereby rendering nugatory any judgment that may be obtained in the suit, and consequently urged the court to grant the reliefs sought in the interest of justice.

After considering the application and submissions of learned silk, Justice Aneke granted all the reliefs sought and adjourned the matter to April 9, 2026, for further proceedings.

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Business

Sanwo-Olu unveils Lagos 2026 economic blueprint, vows inclusive growth

Published

9 hours ago

April 1, 2026

Newsbreak365_Admin

The Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, on Tuesday unveiled the 2026 edition of the Lagos Economic Development Update, reaffirming his administration’s commitment to driving inclusive growth and ensuring that economic progress translates into tangible benefits for all residents of the state.

The unveiling of this year’s outlook, held in Ikeja, provides an in-depth analysis of the state’s economic trajectory, capturing global, national, and local developments shaping Lagos’ growth outlook.

Represented by his deputy, Obafemi Hamzat, the governor described the report as more than a policy document, noting that it serves as a strategic compass for guiding economic direction and strengthening decision-making.

He added that despite global economic headwinds — including post-pandemic recovery challenges, inflationary pressures, and exchange rate fluctuations — the state has remained resilient through deliberate policies, fiscal discipline, and sustained investment in critical infrastructure.

“It is with a deep sense of responsibility and optimism that I join you today to officially launch the third edition of the Lagos Economic Development Update — LEDU 2026.

“This platform has evolved beyond a mere policy document; it has become a compass guiding our economic direction, shaping decisions, and reinforcing our commitment to building a resilient, inclusive, and prosperous Lagos,” he said.

He noted that while the global economic environment has remained unpredictable, Lagos has stayed on course through “clarity, discipline, and foresight,” anchored on the T.H.E.M.E.S+ Agenda.

According to him, the state had strengthened its fiscal framework, improved revenue generation, and invested in infrastructure critical to long-term growth.

Sanwo-Olu further highlighted progress recorded since the inception of LEDU, including the expansion of the state’s economic base driven by innovation, entrepreneurship, and digitalisation; improved efficiency in revenue systems; and sustained infrastructure development spanning roads, ports, energy, and urban planning.

He added that continued investment in human capital remains central, as “people are the true engine of growth.”

Speaking on the theme of this year’s report, “Consolidating Resilience, Advancing Competitiveness, Delivering Shared Prosperity,” the governor said it reflects Lagos’ current economic priorities.

He explained that consolidating resilience involves strengthening institutions and fiscal discipline, while advancing competitiveness requires boosting productivity, innovation, and investment.

Delivering shared prosperity, he added, means ensuring growth translates into jobs, expanded opportunities, and improved livelihoods for residents.

Looking ahead, he reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to economic diversification, private sector-led growth, data-driven governance, sustainable urban development, and social inclusion.

He also stressed the importance of partnerships with the private sector, development institutions, civil society, and the international community in achieving the state’s development goals.

“As we launch this edition of LEDU, I urge all stakeholders to engage actively, strengthen collaboration, and align with our shared vision.

“We have built resilience; now we must translate it into sustained competitiveness and ensure that growth delivers tangible prosperity for every Lagosian,” he said.

Also speaking, the state Commissioner for Economic Planning and Budget, Ope George, said Lagos has demonstrated remarkable resilience in navigating both global and domestic economic challenges.

“Lagos is not just responding to economic shocks — we are building systems that make us stronger because of them,” he said, noting that deliberate policies, disciplined fiscal management, and strategic investments have reinforced the state’s position as a leading subnational economy in Africa.

He added that the state would continue to prioritise economic diversification, private sector growth, sustainable urban development, and social inclusion, stressing that growth must be measured not only by numbers but also by its impact on people’s lives.

In his goodwill message, Chief Consultant at B. Adedipe Associates Limited, Biodun Adedipe, described the LEDU initiative as a credible framework for tracking economic performance and refining development strategies.

He noted that Lagos remains central to Nigeria’s economy, adding that its continued growth signals broader national progress.

“If Lagos works, a significant share of Nigeria’s commerce works,” he said, expressing optimism about the state’s economic future.

Meanwhile, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, Tayo Adeloju, urged the state government to prioritise affordable housing as a critical driver of shared prosperity.

He noted that high housing costs could limit upward mobility for low-income earners, stressing that making housing more accessible would enhance living standards and support inclusive growth.

Adeloju added that sustained fiscal discipline, improved service delivery, and a broader productive base would further strengthen Lagos’ position among Africa’s leading megacity economies.

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Business

Airlines in pricing limbo amid 180% Jet A1 price surge

Published

10 hours ago

April 1, 2026

Newsbreak365_Admin

Airfares have remained stagnant in Nigeria despite the rising cost of aviation fuel by 184 per cent in the last two months, occasioned by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

However, sources in different airlines who did not want their names in print, considering the sensitivity of the matter, told The PUNCH on Tuesday that the “pressure of competition” among local carriers kept the airfares low.

Aviation fuel, which was sold at N900 per litre in January, increased to N1,121 per litre as of 26 February 2026 and now sells for N2,557 per litre.

Aviation fuel is the highest consuming commodity of airlines’ finances, taking about 40 per cent of airlines’ resources. This is closely followed by aircraft maintenance.

Despite the spike in fuel prices and the financial burden on airlines, competition has been keeping the airlines in check against upping their ticket prices. Between January and March 30, the product has increased by 184 per cent; yet, airfares still sell for between N106,286 and N147,000 across major routes in the domestic market.

A search on the booking portal of Ibom Air, for instance, shows the Lagos-Abuja flight for April 4 goes for N114,600, while Uyo to Abuja on the same airline and date also sells for the same N114,500.

For United Nigeria Airlines’ portal, the Kano-Lagos flight from April 1 to April 7 sells for N142,500 for a one-way ticket, while the Lagos-Port Harcourt flight for the same date goes for the same N142,500 on the airline’s portal.

Besides, the Lagos-Abuja flight for April 4 on Aero Contractors goes for N106,286, while the Asaba-Abuja flight on the same airline sells for N102,179.

However, Air Peace is the most expensive on the local scene, with Lagos to Abuja air tickets for April 3 bookings selling for N147,000, while the return ticket – Abuja to Lagos – also goes for the same rate.

The airline source said that instead of the fares going up, the operators had kept them at the same price as two months ago, yet they were struggling to remain in business.

The source also attributed the situation to the number of scheduled indigenous operators, in spite of low passenger traffic.

As of the time of filing this report, there are about 15 scheduled operators, while another two airlines in February and March, Enugu Air and Binani Airlines, respectively, secured Air Operators’ Certificates from the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority, which would enable them to operate.

Nigeria’s passenger traffic has been on a steady decline in recent years. The industry recorded 15.6 million passenger movements on domestic and international routes in 2024, 15.8 million in 2023 and 16.2 million in 2022.

One of the sources said, “It’s the pressure of competition. Instead of going up, the pressure on pricing is downwards because of the number of players and the pricing they have entered the market with. It’s simply competitive pressure that keeps airfares stagnant.”

He, however, said that his airline was reviewing the current situation and would come up with a position in the coming weeks.

Data obtained from major fuel marketers in Nigeria indicated that aviation fuel currently goes for N2,557 per litre at Sokoto Airport, making it the airport with the most expensive sales of the product in Nigeria.

This is followed by Kano, which sells the product at N2,554 per litre, while both Port Harcourt and Asaba report rates of N2,543 per litre.

Besides, the product goes for N2,538 per litre at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja; Enugu airport, N2,535 per litre; and Warri airport, N2,530 per litre.

For Anambra airport, the product goes for N2,529 per litre; for Asaba airport, N2,528 per litre, with Lagos recording the cheapest rate of aviation fuel at N2,500 per litre.

While operators refused to comment on the development despite calls and text messages, industry experts expressed their views. Aviation analyst Olumide Ohunayo warned that even if airlines make fare adjustments, they may not be sufficient to offset the mounting losses triggered by the sharp rise in aviation fuel prices, describing the situation as unsustainable for operators.

Ohunayo, who spoke amid growing concerns over escalating ticket costs, said airlines are caught in a difficult position where even significant fare increases may still fall short of covering operational expenses.

He said, “No matter the increase that they can make now, they may not be able to recoup their losses as a result of the fuel increase. When you compare the prices with other nations, you will discover that the fuel price in Nigeria is on the high side.”

He highlighted the rapid spike in fuel prices within a short period, noting that the trend has placed enormous pressure on airline operations.

The industry expert expressed concern that, unlike other countries, Nigeria has yet to implement measures to ease the burden on both operators and consumers.

He said, “It was about N1,000 in January, N1,500 in February, and it has now moved to over N2,500 in March. And this is the same country where Dangote is exporting this same fuel to Europe, and you will then begin to imagine what incentives are given to cushion this development.

“Other countries are bringing in their reserves to reduce the effects on the citizenry, and they have also reduced their taxes, in some cases up to 50 per cent. An example of that is Australia.”

Ohunayo questioned the response of the Nigerian government, urging authorities to act swiftly to prevent further strain on the aviation sector.

He called for targeted interventions, including temporary tax reliefs for airlines, to help cushion the impact of rising costs, saying, “What is the Nigerian government doing to reduce the effect of this on Nigerians? So, I feel that no matter the eventual increase from airline operators, it still cannot be enough.

“There must be a way to support operators during this period, maybe by reducing their taxes for three months. There must be a way for the government to come in. Why are the operators the ones bearing the highest cost?”

A retired pilot, Muhammad Badamosi, has said airlines may be reluctant to further increase airfares despite rising operational costs, citing fears of losing passengers to road transport amid the current economic realities.

He said, “Yes, I think it’s the fear of losing passengers because Nigerians currently do not have money, and many may have to resort to road travel. Yes, we understand that that is taking a toll on the operators, but it is what it is. That is the condition Nigeria currently finds itself in.”

Badamosi explained that while airlines are under pressure to adjust fares in response to rising aviation fuel costs, they are also constrained by the risk of pricing themselves out of the market.

According to him, the situation has created a difficult balance for operators, who must navigate between sustaining their businesses and retaining customer patronage.

“For instance, I used to visit Kaduna once every two months, but now I have cut it down to three times a year. My frequency used to be six times a year; now I go there three times a year.”

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