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Blackout fears grow over gas plant maintenance

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Seven power plants across Nigeria are expected to experience gas supply constraints as Seplat Energy shuts down a major facility for scheduled maintenance, raising fears of potential electricity shortfalls and looming blackouts, the Nigerian Independent System Operator has warned.

In a notice issued on Thursday, NISO alerted electricity market participants and consumers that the maintenance, slated for February 12 to 15, 2026, would temporarily reduce gas availability to some thermal power plants. The system operator emphasised that critical national infrastructure and essential services would be prioritised should load management measures be required during the period.

Power stations projected to be directly affected include Egbin, Azura, Sapele, and Transcorp Power Plants, while NDPHC Sapele, Olorunsogo, and Omotosho plants are likely to experience indirect constraints due to network-wide gas balancing effects.

The planned maintenance affects gas supply into the NNPC Gas Infrastructure Company Limited (NGIC) pipeline network and is expected to temporarily reduce thermal generation capacity on the national grid. At least seven power stations are projected to face direct and indirect constraints during the exercise.

In a separate press statement issued by NISO management and the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC Ltd, Andy Odeh, the system operator confirmed that gas availability to seven grid-connected power plants would be curtailed during the four-day exercise.

Earlier assessments by NISO indicate that the maintenance could result in a generation shortfall of about 934.96 megawatts, representing roughly 19.67 per cent of the combined available thermal and hydro generation capacity of 4,753.10MW on the grid.

The notice read in part: “The Nigerian Independent System Operator hereby informs the general public and all electricity market participants of anticipated gas supply constraints affecting some major thermal power generating stations connected to the national grid.

“This situation arises from a formal notification received on the scheduled maintenance shutdown of a major gas supply facility from 12 to 15 February 2026 (both days inclusive). Full gas supply is expected to be restored on 16 February 2026.

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“During the maintenance period, gas availability to certain power plants that depend on this supply network will be temporarily reduced. This will result in a temporary reduction in available thermal generation capacity across the national grid. This reduction underscores the need for careful system operation to maintain grid stability and reliability.”

NISO, which recently assumed the role of independent system operator under Nigeria’s restructured electricity market framework, said it would deploy real-time operational measures to preserve grid integrity throughout the maintenance window.

“In line with its statutory mandate, NISO will deploy appropriate real-time operational measures to safeguard the integrity and security of the national grid throughout the maintenance window,” the statement added.

“Any load shedding, if required, will be implemented in a structured, transparent, and equitable manner in close coordination with distribution companies. Priority will be accorded to critical national infrastructure, essential services, and security installations,” it emphasised.

The operator assured stakeholders that all decisions taken during the period would follow established grid security and reliability standards. “NISO assures all stakeholders and electricity consumers that every action taken during this period will be strictly guided by established operational procedures, grid security requirements, and reliability standards.

“The National Control Centre will intensify real-time system monitoring and contingency planning, while also ensuring fair load allocation based on available generation capacity,” the statement added.

Nigeria’s electricity grid remains heavily dependent on thermal power plants, which account for over 70 per cent of installed generation capacity and run primarily on natural gas supplied through pipelines and upstream processing facilities concentrated in the Niger Delta.

While Nigeria has abundant gas reserves—the largest in Africa—persistent supply bottlenecks, pipeline vandalism, payment arrears, and infrastructure maintenance have repeatedly disrupted electricity generation.

Industry data show that even when installed capacity exceeds 13,000MW, actual available generation often hovers between 4,000MW and 5,000MW due to gas shortages, transmission constraints, and plant outages.

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Egbin, for instance, remains the largest single thermal power station in Nigeria with an installed capacity of 1,320MW. Azura-Edo contributes 461MW, while Transcorp’s Ughelli plant has over 900MW installed capacity. Any reduction in gas supply to these facilities typically has an immediate ripple effect across the national grid.

In a related statement titled “Notice of Scheduled Maintenance on Major Gas Plant and Facilities,” the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited confirmed the routine maintenance on its gas production facilities from February 12 to 15.

Seplat, a joint venture partner of NNPC Ltd and a key supplier of gas into the NGIC pipeline network, described the exercise as part of standard safety and asset integrity protocols.

“The public is hereby informed that Seplat Energy Plc, a Joint Venture partner of NNPC Ltd and a key supplier of gas into the NNPC Gas Infrastructure Company Limited pipeline network, has scheduled routine maintenance on its gas production facilities from 12th to 15th February 2026.

“This planned activity forms part of standard industry safety and asset integrity protocols designed to ensure the continued reliability, efficiency, and safe operation of critical gas infrastructure. Periodic maintenance of this nature is essential to sustain optimal system performance, strengthen operational resilience, and minimise the risk of unplanned outages,” the statement said.

The company acknowledged that the maintenance would temporarily reduce gas supply into the NGIC network, with possible knock-on effects on electricity generation.

“During the four-day maintenance period, there will be a temporary reduction in gas supply into the NGIC pipeline network. As a result, some power generation companies reliant on this supply may experience reduced gas availability, which could modestly impact electricity generation levels within the timeframe,” it added.

NNPC Ltd and Seplat said they were working to ensure the exercise is completed as scheduled, while mitigation measures are being put in place. “NNPC Ltd and Seplat Energy are working closely to ensure that the maintenance is executed safely and completed as scheduled.

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In parallel, NNPC Gas Marketing Limited is engaging alternative gas suppliers to mitigate anticipated supply gaps and maintain stability across the network. Upon completion of the maintenance exercise, full gas supply into the NGIC system is expected to resume promptly, enabling affected power generation companies to return to normal operations.”

The Executive Director of PowerUp Nigeria, Mr Adetayo Adegbemle, faulted the handling of the planned maintenance, describing it as evidence of poor long-term planning in the power sector. Reacting to the announcement of anticipated gas constraints, Adegbemle said the development reflects a systemic failure to build buffers into critical infrastructure planning.

“This announcement shows our inability to plan ahead. Nothing says we should not have storage facilities that would hold us for days while this maintenance is being done,” he said. He argued that with better foresight, the impact of routine maintenance on electricity generation could be significantly reduced.

“I want to believe it is just our Nigerian way of approaching all issues that is accounting for this. We really need to change our thinking and approach to issues. We need to chase excellence in all we do,” Adegbemle added. He stressed that as Nigeria continues to depend heavily on gas-fired power plants, investments in gas storage and strategic reserves would help shield electricity consumers from avoidable supply shocks during scheduled maintenance or unexpected disruptions.

For millions of Nigerians, however, the technical language of “gas balancing effects” and “maintenance windows” may translate simply into darker homes, noisier generators, and higher fuel expenses over the four-day period.

As the country pushes reforms under the Electricity Act and seeks to attract investment into generation and gas infrastructure, the latest development reinforces a recurring lesson: Nigeria’s power stability remains inseparably tied to the reliability of its gas supply chain.

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Nigerian states’ revenues rise 93%, but education spending drops — World Bank

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The World Bank says Nigeria’s 36 states recorded a 93 per cent increase in revenues between 2023 and 2025 but education received a declining share of the sector’s expenditure.

The bank disclosed this in its latest Nigeria Development Update, which examined how increased public revenues have influenced spending priorities across the federation.

The report was made available to the News Agency of Nigeria by the World Bank in Washington D.C.

According to the report, states’ aggregate revenues rose by approximately 93 per cent in real terms, while expenditure increased by 92 per cent during the period.

The report attributed the improvement partly to exchange-rate reforms, petrol subsidy removal, stronger revenue administration and increased allocations from the federation account.

It said states also benefited from refunds, settlement of longstanding federal obligations, intervention funds, and stronger Value Added Tax collections.

However, education’s share of total state expenditure declined from 14.9 per cent in 2021 to 12.1 per cent in 2025, according to the report.

Health expenditure remained broadly stable at approximately seven per cent, while social protection’s share increased from 1.4 per cent to 4.4 per cent.

The bank said capital expenditure increased significantly, accounting for 61 per cent of state spending, compared with 46 per cent previously.

Transport infrastructure recorded the largest increase, alongside substantial spending on housing, agriculture and other economic investments.

The report quoted Mathew Verghis, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, as saying that increased revenues provided the opportunity to improve infrastructure, education, healthcare, and water services.

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He said greater spending efficiency, accountability and improved service delivery were essential to ensuring that additional public resources benefited Nigerians.

The bank acknowledged improvements in states’ fiscal reporting, transparency and internally generated revenue.

It, however, stressed that stronger investment in human capital was necessary to translate economic reforms into sustainable employment and improved living standards.

The report also projected average economic growth of 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028, subject to sustained reforms and improved service delivery.

It urged federal and state authorities to ensure that increased public revenues translated into tangible improvements in Nigerians’ welfare.

NAN

Source: punchng.com

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Nigeria promotes investment without building production capacity – UNILAG don

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A professor of Comparative Political Economy at the University of Lagos, Adelaja Odukoya, has asserted that Nigeria’s economic policies promote investment without sufficiently strengthening domestic production.

Odukoya argued that the contradiction had weakened the country’s productive foundations, with policies encouraging investment and entrepreneurship while failing to create the technological capacity, productive employment and processing industries needed to drive sustainable development.

Odukoya spoke at the maiden edition of the Adeleke University Toyin Falola Annual Lecture, held on Thursday at the Performing Arts Theatre, Adeleke University, Ede.

The lecture had as its theme, “History, Power and Accumulation: Reimagining Africa in the Globally Disorderly Order.”

Odukoya identified several contradictions in the way the Nigerian state manages economic activity.

He said, “The state promotes investment without creating conditions for technological transfer. It encourages entrepreneurship without generating sufficient productive employment.

“It expands primary-product exports while leaving processing capacity undeveloped. It constructs infrastructure without establishing strong linkages with domestic production.”

According to him, the contradictions explain why increased economic activity and accumulation do not necessarily translate into development.

“Accumulation is not synonymous with development,” Odukoya stated.

He argued that genuine development should be measured by the expansion of productive, technological, institutional and human capabilities.

“A country could attract investment, export minerals and agricultural commodities and record economic activity while still failing to build the domestic industries and technological capabilities required for long-term development,” he said.

His argument was echoed by Prof Toyin Falola, who said Africa’s vast natural resources would continue to reinforce dependency unless governments developed the industrial, technological and institutional capacity to transform them into productive power.

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Falola said Africa’s resource problem was not simply one of historical exploitation, but also the continent’s failure to convert its resource endowments into power.

“The issue, however, is not just to repeat the history of exploitation. It is more important to know how Africa turns its great resources into power,” Falola said.

He argued that Africa could not afford to remain a spectator as global economic and geopolitical arrangements continued to change, stressing that resource ownership without the capacity to add value would not guarantee influence.

Falola said the continent required a combination of knowledge, government policy and industrial capacity to change its economic position.

“There must be universities that generate new knowledge; there must be governments that translate this knowledge into policies; there must be industries that add value to the continent’s natural resources,” he said.

He added that Africa needed more than improved infrastructure and stronger economies if it wanted to exercise greater influence in the global system.

“The future of the continent will require more than just better infrastructure, improved economies, and more effective political institutions,” Falola said.

Source: punchng.com

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Import waivers, insecurity end two-year agric trade surplus

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Import waivers meant to ease hunger and insecurity on farms have led to a deficit, ending a two-year run of surpluses, as Nigeria’s agricultural trade balance swung from a N740.27bn surplus in the first half of 2025 to a N56.13bn deficit in H1 2026, according to agriculture and trade experts.

Recent foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that agricultural exports fell by 33.28 per cent, or N985.14bn, to N1.98tn in H1 2026 from N2.96tn in H1 2025.

Agricultural imports fell by only 8.50 per cent, or N188.74bn, to N2.03tn from N2.22tn over the same period. The gap between the two movements produced a N796.40bn swing in the trade balance.

Nigeria recorded a N365.74bn deficit in H1 2023, when imports of N926.25bn far exceeded exports of N560.51bn. The balance then turned to a N194.92bn surplus in H1 2024 before it widened to N740.27bn in H1 2025.

In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, Agribusiness experts, including the Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Agricultural and Allied Group, Tunde Banjoko, explained that recent government policy led to the shift.

Banjoko said, “Some waivers were given for products like palm oil and rice, and the import tariffs were drastically reduced. It became more favourable for people to import than to patronise local producers.”

He said the waivers on food commodities hurt domestic producers, even though lower tariffs on tractors and manufacturing equipment helped them.

According to Banjoko, “The effect is that our imports will rise above our exports. Second, we will discourage local production. Thirdly, we will be reducing employment, because some factories will shut down if they are not able to compete.”

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Banjoko also said weak funding for processors compounds the problem. He said foreign direct investment flows mainly into the capital market rather than into production and processing, so local processors cannot scale.

He urged the Federal Government to speed up the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones programme. “We should speed up such projects where we can produce enough for our country and start exporting, not look for shortcuts by reducing prices,” Banjoko added.

Meanwhile, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, identified two major factors behind the deficit. He said the first was the Federal Government’s decision to allow some food imports to tackle runaway inflation.

Yusuf said, “The first is the decision of the government to allow for some food imports as a result of the challenges of food inflation, which at a point was getting almost completely out of hand.”

He added that insecurity worsened the supply gap and cut export capacity, stating, “Insecurity led many farmers to leave their farms. Many of them have ended up in IDP camps, and quite a number have completely abandoned farming.”

He added that farmers cannot export without output. Yusuf said, “You can only export when you have the output.”

Yusuf also said high input costs and falling produce prices have discouraged farming. He said, “Most of these inputs are imported, so the exchange rate situation has seriously affected the cost of inputs, and the prices of produce have gone down.”

He urged the Federal Government to cut the cost of fertiliser, agrochemicals, machinery and improved seedlings. He also called for a minimum guaranteed price for agricultural produce.

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Yusuf said, “The government can establish a threshold below which, if prices fall, it will give farmers some compensation. That is the way it is done in many other economies.”

Source: punchng.com

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