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Nigeria loses N1.76tn after missing OPEC quota

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Nigeria’s oil sector lost an estimated N1.76tn in potential crude oil revenue due to its failure to meet the production quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from January 2025 to January 2026.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission revealed that the country’s crude oil production fell below the OPEC-set target of 1.5 million barrels per day in nine months in 2025 and repeated the same in the first month of 2026, even as global crude prices remained moderately strong.

According to the figures, Nigeria produced 1.54 mbpd in January 2025, exceeding its quota by about 40,000 barrels per day. Production also slightly exceeded the quota in June and July, with daily outputs of 1.51 mbpd, translating to surpluses of approximately 10,000–30,000 barrels per day.

However, production in February (1.47 mbpd), March (1.40 mbpd), April (1.49 mbpd), May (1.45 mbpd), August (1.43 mbpd), September (1.39 mbpd), October (1.40 mbpd), November (1.43 mbpd), and December (1.42 mbpd) fell below the benchmark.

The monthly shortfalls against the OPEC quota ranged from 10,000 barrels per day in April to 110,000 barrels per day in September, with the largest deficit recorded in September.

In February, average production stood at 1.47 mbpd. Over 28 days, this amounted to 41.16 million barrels, compared to the 42 million barrels expected under the quota, leaving a shortfall of 840,000 barrels. Output dropped further to 1.4 mbpd in March. Total production for the month was 43.4 million barrels instead of 46.5 million barrels, resulting in a deficit of 3.1 million barrels.

According to the data, crude production averaged 1.43 million barrels per day in April. Across 30 days, this translated to 42.9 million barrels, leaving a gap of 2.1 million barrels from the 45 million-barrel target for the month.

The fifth month recorded approximately 1.45 million barrels per day. Over the 31 days of May, Nigeria produced 44.95 million barrels against a quota requirement of 46.5 million barrels, leaving a deficit of 1.55 million barrels.

In August, production slipped to about 1.48 million barrels per day, yielding 45.88 million barrels compared to the expected 46.5 million barrels, creating a shortfall of 620,000 barrels. In September, production fell to 1.39 mbpd — the lowest in the year. Over 30 days, output reached 41.7 million barrels instead of 45 million barrels, leaving a shortfall of 3.3 million barrels.

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Similarly, in October, average production of 1.44 million barrels per day resulted in 44.64 million barrels compared to 46.5 million barrels expected. The shortfall was 1.86 million barrels.

November recorded an average output of 1.46 mbpd; total production was 43.8 million barrels versus 45 million barrels under the quota. The deficit was 1.2 million barrels. In December, production hovered around 1.47 million barrels per day. Over the 31 days, Nigeria produced 45.57 million barrels instead of 46.5 million barrels, resulting in a gap of 930,000 barrels.

Cumulatively, these nine months produced a gross shortfall of approximately 18.7 million barrels.

However, January, June, and July recorded slight surpluses above the quota. After deducting the combined surplus from those three months, the net annual production deficit stood at 16.85 million barrels.

In January 2026, crude production stood at an average of 1.459 mbpd, resulting in a daily shortfall of 41,000 barrels per day. This translated to a shortfall of about 1.27 million barrels for the month. Consequently, from January 2025 to January 2026, Nigeria’s OPEC shortfalls accumulated to 18.12 million barrels.

According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, traded at elevated levels in the early part of the year before easing in the second quarter.

Bonny Light crude sold at an average of $80.76 per barrel in January 2025, declining to $77.08 in February and $74.44 in March. Prices dropped further in April to $69.07 and reached a low of $65.90 in May, reflecting softer global oil market conditions.

Prices recovered in June to $73.50 and remained largely stable in the third quarter, averaging $73.18 in July, $70.55 in August, and $70.20 in September, before falling again to $66.15 in October, the latest month for which CBN data were available.

Using the simple average of the 10 monthly Bonny Light prices published by the CBN, crude prices averaged $72.08 per barrel over the period under review. Multiplying 18.12 million barrels by $72.08 gives an estimated lost revenue of $1.31bn. At the prevailing exchange rate of N1,353 per dollar, this translates to approximately N1.76tn.

This loss came despite Nigeria’s total oil production for 2025 reaching 530.41 million barrels, generating gross revenue of about N55.5tn at the same average price and exchange rate.

Analysts noted that this figure represented gross inflows and did not account for production costs, joint venture cash calls, production-sharing contract cost recoveries, domestic obligations, or oil theft.

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According to them, the underperformance against the OPEC quota highlights structural challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, including operational disruptions, infrastructure constraints, security issues in the Niger Delta region, and fluctuations in production efficiency across different fields.

For comparison, Nigeria produced 1.54 mbpd in January 2025, exceeding the quota by 38,700 barrels per day, while the largest deficit occurred in September, when production averaged 1.39 mbpd, leaving a shortfall of about 110,000 barrels per day. These fluctuations underline the volatility that continues to affect Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.

The shortfall also provides context for the 2026 oil benchmark, which is more conservative. The government has set a projected daily oil (crude and condensate) production of 1.84 million barrels, a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, and an average exchange rate of N1,400 per dollar, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in global oil markets and domestic production challenges. However, the January 2026 figure is not a good start for the 2026 budget.

An energy expert, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, said meeting oil production targets would depend far less on ambitious projections and far more on practical, on-the-ground actions.

Iledare told The PUNCH that the government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity.

According to Iledare, Nigeria earned about N55tn from crude oil in 2025, up from roughly N50tn in 2024. “While this is an improvement, it still fell short of what the Federal Government expected for the year,” he said.

The don noted that the main issue was not oil prices but production. He explained that the government planned to produce 766.5 million barrels in 2025 but managed to produce only about 599.6 million barrels, meaning close to 167 million barrels were not produced, and the revenue that could have come with them was lost.

“Looking ahead to 2026, meeting oil production targets will depend far less on ambitious projections and far more on practical, on-the-ground actions. The government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity,” he stated.

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He added that supporting investment in maintenance and infill drilling — while ensuring policy consistency — will be critical to converting planned barrels into actual barrels.

The expert called on the Independent Petroleum Producers Group to lead the charge by reopening shut-in wells. “In this regard, the IPPG holds a key role in near-term production expansion. With appropriate economic and policy incentives, re-entry into shut-in wells in the onshore and shallow-water basins could deliver meaningful production gains within the year,” Iledare explained.

A professor of economics, Segun Ajibola, said crude production volume is dependent on several factors, many of which are beyond the immediate control of the government.

According to him, the government can deploy resources towards oil exploration, but the overall impact depends on technical cooperation by partners, joint ventures, developments in the global oil market, and environmental conditions, among others.

Ajibola maintained that the Nigerian situation is complex, as the key agency in charge, the NNPC, has been enmeshed in controversies over the period.

Meanwhile, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced about 1.46 million barrels of crude oil per day in January 2026, though output rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.46 mbpd in January.

Despite the marginal improvement, production remained below the 1.5 mbpd quota, marking the sixth straight month the country has missed its OPEC target, spanning August 2025 to January 2026.

However, the new Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, pledged to increase oil production. The NUPRC boss said her vision for the upstream sector rests on three pillars: production optimisation and revenue expansion; regulatory predictability and speed; and safe, governed and sustainable operations.

According to her, the agenda aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and the administration’s plan to grow Nigeria’s crude oil production to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030.

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CBN, NCC to combat SIM-related fraud

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The Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigerian Communications Commission on Monday signed a memorandum of understanding to tackle SIM-related fraud and strengthen consumer protection across Nigeria’s digital ecosystem.

The agreement, signed at the CBN headquarters in Abuja, aims to improve coordination between the financial and telecommunications sectors, focusing on combating electronic fraud linked to mobile numbers, enhancing payment system integrity, and protecting consumers.

Speaking at the event, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said the pact was a “practical statement of national interest”, noting that the increasing reliance on digital channels for payments and financial services required stronger collaboration between both regulators.

He said, “This MoU is not merely an administrative document; it is a practical statement of national interest,” adding that the agreement would reinforce the stability and integrity of Nigeria’s payment system while supporting innovation and consumer safety.

Cardoso explained that the deal would strengthen coordination on approvals, technical standards, and innovation trials, including sandbox testing, to ensure that financial services remain reliable and scalable.

He noted that the partnership would also improve the response to rising electronic fraud, stressing that “addressing these threats requires joined-up action, shared intelligence, clearer escalation paths, stronger operational readiness across regulated entities, and consistent public education”.

A key component of the agreement is the rollout of the Telecom Identity Risk Management Portal, a data-sharing platform designed to detect fraud linked to recycled, swapped, or blacklisted phone numbers.

According to Cardoso, the platform would enable real-time verification of mobile number status across banks and fintech firms, providing an additional layer of protection for consumers and the financial system.

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He said strict compliance with data protection laws, including encryption and consent protocols, would guide the use of the platform.

Also speaking, the Executive Vice Chairman of the NCC, Aminu Maida, described the agreement as a major step in strengthening Nigeria’s digital economy.

He said, “The signing of this Memorandum of Understanding marks an important milestone in the regulatory stewardship of Nigeria’s digital economy,” adding that collaboration between both institutions was “not optional; it is imperative.”

Maida noted that the initiative would give financial institutions better visibility into the status of phone numbers used in transactions, including whether a line had been swapped, recycled, or flagged for fraudulent activity.

“This ensures that our financial services industry is better equipped with timely and relevant information to effectively combat e-fraud, particularly those perpetrated using phone numbers,” he said.

He added that the agreement would also improve consumer protection, assuring Nigerians that issues such as failed airtime recharges would be resolved more quickly under the new framework.

Earlier, the Director of Payment System Supervision at the CBN, Dr Rakiya Yusuf, said the partnership between both regulators had evolved over the years from separate oversight roles into a more integrated collaboration focused on securing Nigeria’s digital and financial systems.

She traced the relationship back to earlier efforts to align mobile payment regulations and telecom licensing frameworks, including the 2018 MoU that enabled telecom operators to participate in mobile money services through special purpose vehicles.

She also highlighted joint interventions such as the resolution of the USSD pricing dispute and the introduction of a N6.98 per session fee, as well as recent efforts to address failed transactions through a proposed 30-second refund framework.

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Under the new agreement, two joint committees will be established to drive implementation. These include the Joint Committee on Payment Systems and Consumer Protection and the Joint Committee on the telecom risk management platform.

The agreement is expected to deepen digital financial inclusion, reduce fraud risks, and strengthen trust in Nigeria’s rapidly expanding digital economy.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the CBN and the NCC unveiled a joint framework to tackle the growing problem of failed airtime and data transactions, which have left consumers frustrated after payments are processed but service delivery is not provided.

The 20-page draft, published on the CBN’s website, was developed by the CBN’s Consumer Protection & Financial Inclusion Department and the telecom regulator, with input from banks, mobile operators, payment providers, and other stakeholders.

The regulators seek to clarify accountability, standardise complaint-resolution timelines, and create a coordinated system for addressing grievances across the financial and telecommunications sectors.

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Electricity reforms: Rivers, Kano, 19 others delay takeover

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Twenty-one states, including Rivers and Kano, are yet to assume regulatory control of their electricity markets nearly three years after the enactment of the Electricity Act 2023, even as 15 states have already transitioned to independent market oversight.

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission disclosed that the states that have completed the transition have established their own electricity regulatory frameworks and are now responsible for market development, investment attraction, tariff oversight, and customer protection within their jurisdictions.

According to the commission, the shift follows the decentralisation provisions of the Electricity Act 2023, which empower subnational governments to regulate electricity generation, transmission and distribution within their territories after completing the necessary legal and administrative processes.

NERC noted that 15 states have so far completed the transition to state-level regulation. These include Enugu, Ekiti, Ondo, Imo, Oyo, Edo, Kogi, Lagos, Ogun, Niger, Plateau, Abia, Nasarawa, Anambra and Bayelsa.

However, the remaining 21 states yet to assume regulatory control are Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara.

Industry analysts said the slow pace of transition in some states could delay the expected benefits of decentralisation, including improved power supply, localised tariff structures, and accelerated investments in embedded generation and mini-grid projects.

Under the new framework, once a state completes its transition, the state electricity regulator takes over licensing of intrastate electricity operations, enforcement of technical standards, tariff setting for local distribution, and protection of electricity consumers within the state.

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NERC, in turn, retains oversight only on interstate and national grid-related activities.

The commission emphasised that state regulators are expected to drive local electricity market growth by encouraging private sector participation, promoting renewable energy deployment, and ensuring service quality standards for distribution companies operating within their jurisdictions.

The timeline released by the commission shows that the earliest transitions occurred in October 2024, when Enugu and Ekiti states assumed regulatory authority, followed by Ondo shortly after. The pace accelerated in 2025, with several states, including Oyo, Edo, Lagos and Ogun, completing their transitions. The most recent additions include Nasarawa, Anambra and Bayelsa between January and February 2026.

It was observed, however, that some of the 15 states have not set up their regulatory commissions.

Power sector stakeholders argue that states yet to transition risk missing opportunities to attract investments in off-grid electrification projects, particularly in underserved rural communities.

They also note that state-level regulation could help address longstanding distribution challenges by enabling more flexible tariff structures, targeted subsidies, and enforcement mechanisms tailored to local conditions.

With less than half of the states having completed the transition, many argued that the effectiveness of the Electricity Act reforms will largely depend on how quickly the remaining states establish their regulatory institutions and operational frameworks.

Apparently overwhelmed by the country’s power woes, the Federal Government recently pushed the challenge to the 36 states, asking them to take over power generation, transmission, and distribution.

The Federal Government said this was the only solution to the power crisis in the country.

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The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said at an energy summit in Lagos that the Electricity Act’s impact includes decentralisation and liberalisation.

“In a country as big as Nigeria, with almost a million square kilometres of landmass, over 200 million people, millions of businesses, thousands of institutions (health and educational institutions), 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory, and 774 local governments—centralisation cannot work for us. The responsibility of providing stable electricity can never be left in the hands of the Federal Government.

“At the centre, you cannot, from Abuja, guarantee stable power across the country. So, this is one thing that the Act has achieved—decentralisation. That has now allowed all the states or the subnationals to play in all segments of the power sector value chain—generation, transmission, distribution, and even service industries supporting the power sector,” he stated.

He called on the remaining 21 states to set up their electricity market.

“I believe other states will follow suit in operationalising the autonomy granted, with full collaboration of the national regulator. We are working actively with these states to ensure strong alignment between the wholesale market and the retail market.

“In this regard, we believe the active involvement of the state governments, particularly in the off-grid segment, is critical, given the series of roundtable engagements held with governors by the Rural Electrification Agency, as well as ongoing efforts to closely track the distribution companies’ performances within their respective jurisdictions,” Adelabu emphasised.

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Nigeria buys 61.7m barrels US crude oil amid bulk exports

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Nigeria imported about 61.7 million barrels of crude oil from the United States between January 2024 and January 2026, underscoring the country’s growing reliance on foreign feedstock to support domestic refining despite being a major oil producer.

This is despite the fact that Nigeria exported over 300 million barrels of crude in the first 10 months of 2025 and 55.39 million barrels in January and February 2026.

Data obtained from the US Energy Information Administration showed that crude exports from the United States to Nigeria surged during the period, marking a sharp reversal from nearly a decade of negligible crude trade flows between both countries.

Before 2024, American crude shipments to Nigeria were virtually non-existent. The only notable supply recorded within the period was in March 2016, when exports averaged just 19,000 barrels per day, translating to about 0.589 million barrels for the entire year.

However, the trade pattern changed significantly in 2024, coinciding with the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery, which industry observers said has emerged as the primary buyer of US crude to supplement domestic supply constraints.

The EIA reports its data in thousands of barrels per day, meaning the daily figures must be multiplied by the number of days in each month to derive the total monthly volume.

For 2024, data available for January to June indicated that Nigeria imported a total of 15.701 million barrels from the United States within six months. In January, imports averaged 125,000 barrels per day, translating to 3.87 million barrels. February recorded 110,000 barrels per day or 3.19 million barrels, while March fell to 51,000 barrels per day, amounting to 1.58 million barrels.

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Imports rose again in April to 67,000 barrels per day, representing 2.01 million barrels, before dropping to 35,000 barrels per day in May, equivalent to 1.08 million barrels. June recorded the highest inflow for the year at 132,000 barrels per day, which translated to 3.96 million barrels.

The volume increased further in 2025, which accounted for the largest share of the two-year imports. Between February and December 2025, Nigeria imported 41.06 million barrels of US crude.

According to the EIA, the year started with 111,000 barrels per day in February and climbed steadily in the following months.

Imports peaked in June 2025 at 305,000 barrels per day, the highest monthly rate in the dataset, delivering about 9.15 million barrels within 30 days. Another strong inflow was recorded in August at 201,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 6.23 million barrels.

However, the supply slowed sharply towards the end of the year. Imports dropped to 12,000 barrels per day in November, translating to just 0.36 million barrels, before slightly rising to 23,000 barrels per day or 0.71 million barrels in December.

For 2026, data available for January showed that Nigeria imported 159,000 barrels per day, amounting to 4.93 million barrels.

A breakdown of the figures showed that the combined total for 2024, 2025 and January 2026 stood at 61.685 million barrels, which rounds up to 61.7 million barrels.

The development highlights a paradox in Nigeria’s oil sector, where the country exports large volumes of crude oil but still struggles to supply enough feedstock to domestic refineries.

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For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on importing refined petroleum products such as petrol and diesel due to limited refining capacity. The commissioning of the Dangote refinery in 2024 shifted the pattern, with the country now importing crude oil for local processing instead of finished fuels.

Aliko Dangote once said the imports from the United States were largely driven by the need to bridge the gap between domestic crude supply and the refinery’s operational requirements.

The Dangote facility, one of the world’s largest single-train refineries, requires substantial daily feedstock to run at optimal capacity, needing over 19 million barrels monthly.

Sources told our correspondent that the Dangote refinery imports crude from Ghana and other African countries even as the country sells crude to other countries.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that Nigeria exported an estimated 306.7 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025, despite concerns over feedstock shortages faced by domestic refineries.

The figures indicated that while the country produced about 443.5 million barrels during the 10-month period, averaging roughly 1.45 million barrels per day, a significant portion of the output was shipped overseas.

Cumulatively, exports between January and October represented about 69 per cent of total production, leaving roughly 137 million barrels for domestic use.

Similarly, Nigeria exported 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in the first two months of 2026 even as the Dangote refinery continues to struggle with inadequate domestic feedstock supply.

According to CBN data, the country shipped out 31.31 million barrels in January and 24.08 million barrels in February.

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In January, crude production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day with exports at 1.01 mbpd. In February, production fell to 1.31 mbpd while exports averaged 0.86 mbpd. Total crude production for the two months stood at 81.94 million barrels, meaning that 26.55 million barrels were left behind for local refineries in the first two months of 2026.

On several occasions, the Dangote refinery complained of low crude supply despite the naira-for-crude arrangement, forcing it to source feedstock from the United States and other countries, including Ghana.

Also, the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria lamented that some modular refineries under its umbrella shut down intermittently due to inadequate crude supply.

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