The passing of former President Muhammadu Buhari has created a vacuum in the All Progressives Congress, sparking concerns about how the party or other political parties will inherit the ex-leader’s millions of voters in the North in the coming election, ISMAEEL UTHMAN and MUHAMMED LAWAL write
With the departure of former President Muhammadu Buhari, who had cult-like following and controlled millions of votes in the northern part of the country, the All Progressives Congress, which was the party of the former president, stands at the threshold of losing a reasonable percentage of Buhari’s supporters. Before his death, many of Buhari’s loyalists, including former ministers who served with him and former governors, had distanced themselves from the APC. This is as the Congress for Progressive Change bloc of the party was also reported to be planning defection.
While the APC is the original benefactor of Buhari’s popularity, the opposition parties are also hoping to profit from the “12 million votes” of the ex-president after his death.
Buhari, who contested five presidential elections between 2003 and 2019, lost three times before finally clinching victory in 2015 and securing re-election in 2019.
In the 2003 presidential election, Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party polled 12,710,022 votes but received 6,605,299 votes in 2007. The ex-president, who contested under the Congress for Progressive Change in 2011, garnered 12,214,853 votes. However, he won his election in 2015 under the APC, polling 15,424,921 and 15,191,847 votes for his re-election in 2019. He consistently won Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Kaduna, Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Gombe and Niger in all the elections to maintain his magical 12 million votes.
In a recent interview, a former Secretary to the State Government, Babachir Lawal, argued that the emergence of the APC only added three million votes to Buhari’s election in 2015, suggesting that the late president had his 12 million votes intact.
Similarly, a civil liberty advocate, Senator Shehu Sani, in an interview with Sunday PUNCH, also said the majority of the northern people considered Buhari a messiah, hence they consistently voted for him and considered anybody opposing him as being against northern interests.
He said, “Buhari’s support is different from the kind of support other politicians have in the North today. His support is a kind of cult following. When Buhari was a presidential candidate, any other northerner vying for that position was seen to be a devil. When Buhari was the president, any person criticising him was seen to be anti-North or anti-Buhari. At the peak of his popularity, Buhari became like a deity, and criticising him was viewed by the common people as a form of blasphemy.”
A former military Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar (retd.), acknowledged Buhari’s strong political base, saying, “With the passing away of Buhari, politics in Nigeria will certainly change — I hope for the better.”
However, the shepherd is now dead and the sheep are scattered. The development has brought about an imminent power struggle, as political forces across party lines are already positioning themselves as Buhari’s true friends, allies, and supporters so that the ex-general’s followers will identify with them during election time.
Before his death, both the APC and the opposition coalition led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar were battling for the ex-general’s support ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Political analysts argue that a key strategy for the APC to control Buhari’s followers is to retain the CPC bloc of the party, though some of them have joined the African Democratic Congress.
According to the analysts, leaders of the defunct CPC were seen by thousands of northern voters as Buhari’s disciples; hence, they may tend to follow them during elections. Sunday PUNCH notes that notable members of the defunct CPC who are still in the APC include former Senate President Ahmed Lawan, ex-governors of Nasarawa and Katsina states, Tanko Al-Makura and Aminu Masari, former Minister of Education Adamu Adamu, and ex-member of the House of Representatives, Farouk Aliyu, among others.
But many of the old CPC members who served with Buhari have left the APC. Leading the team are the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal; former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami; and immediate past governor of Kaduna, Nasir El-Rufai. The late president’s ex-ministers, Rotimi Amaechi and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, who were not part of the CPC bloc, have also joined the ADC.
Sunday PUNCH learnt that tensions have begun to surface between the APC and the ADC, with both parties vying to attract Buhari’s political base. Sources told our correspondents that the APC was already worried about Buhari’s demise and how it is going to impact Tinubu’s election in 2027.
Of the 8,794,726 votes Tinubu got in the 2023 presidential election, 5,346,686 came from the northern region. His close rival, Atiku, polled 5,229,473 in the North. Tinubu won six northern states of Jigawa, Zamfara, Kogi, Niger, Benue and Borno. Political analysts argue that with Buhari’s demise, APC might find it difficult to mobilise voters, especially in the face of the purported resentment against the Tinubu’s administration in the region.
An insider at the APC national secretariat who spoke with one of our correspondents stated that the party leaders’ major worry was how not to lose “too much” of Buhari’s followers to the coalition.
“It is a discussion among the leaders. Before the secretariat was shut, the implication of Buhari’s death was a major discourse. Even till now, our major concern is how not to lose too much of the ex-president’s followers to the coalition.”
But the Chairman of the North-Central APC Forum, Saleh Zazzaga, allayed the fear, saying there had not been “proper election” when Buhari was polling 12 million votes, suggesting that the former president might receive fewer votes if he contested now.
“The time that President Buhari secured 12 million votes, there had not been a proper election. In the past elections, the margin of the winner was usually eight million votes. President Tinubu did not win by this margin because there was an election.
“Those that have the capacity are with the APC, and they are going nowhere. Someone like Al-Makura, who is the current leader of the CPC bloc, is with President Tinubu, and he is going to add value to the 2027 journey,” he said in an interview with Sunday PUNCH.
Also commenting on Buhari’s political influence, the President of Arewa Youth Consultative Council, Zaid Ayuba, said the late president’s votes could become extinct, as politics was measured by presence.
He noted that when there was no clear direction, people tended to follow their own interests.
Ayuba said, “Politics is a game of interest. When one is alive, they play politics; immediately one is no more, the interest will always be divided. The 12 million votes belonging to the late president can no longer be controlled.
“Even if he were alive, those 12 million votes could not be channelled in one direction. This is because people are now politically aware. The level of political socialisation in the North has grown beyond how it is perceived. People align with what suits their interests. This means that loyalty and likeness are submitted to anybody they relate with.”
While acknowledging that the North was a staunch supporter of Buhari, Ayuba noted that the people felt betrayed by his performance, which he said put an end to the purported millions of votes the ex-general was controlling.
“Buhari enjoyed massive solidarity from the North in the past, where people saw him as a messiah. In 2019, some people felt he underdelivered, and from that moment, their entire perception changed. This made the 12 million votes a past glory. Currently, no man or politician can puff their chest and say they can deliver this number of votes.
“Northern Nigeria may decide to submit their bloc votes to wherever they feel, especially if the appeal is in relation to regional solidarity. By 2027, a lot of preaching will happen in the North, and people will begin to come out,” he stated.
Asked whether Al-Makura could gather enough support for Tinubu if picked as the APC’s next national chairman, Ayuba said the former Nasarawa State governor did not have Buhari’s political influence in the North.
According to him, Al-Makura was only known in two states in the North.
He said, “If Al-Makura emerges as the National Chairman of the APC, his influence remains in Nasarawa State and Abuja. The moment one crosses these two places, nobody knows him, especially political players, let alone voters. Only Buhari enjoyed the massive political solidarity.
“People were usually surprised whenever he was on the ballot, asking where votes were coming from. Now that he is no longer alive, politically, things have fallen apart. The centre has broken, and there is nobody in the North that can boast of three to four million votes again. There is nobody that can shake the political reign of this region like the late president.”
Similarly, Sani said Tinubu would win his second term in the North despite Buhari’s death. According to him, Tinubu has no strong opposition to his re-election in the region.
“I have no doubt that President Tinubu will win his 2027 election. Because I have not seen any credible, strong, and viable opposition that can counter his support base in northern Nigeria,” he said.
When contacted to comment on how Buhari’s death would impact the 2027 presidential election in the North, a former minister and one of the leaders of the ADC said he couldn’t speak on record because some people would believe he was disrespecting Buhari in death.
The ex-minister, who is one of Buhari’s loyalists, said, “I cannot speak on record because we are still mourning our late principal. If I grant any interview now, many of our people will think I am disrespecting Baba in his grave.
However, his death is a huge loss to us, but we believe thousands, if not millions, of those who usually voted for him identify us as his disciples, and we will not disappoint them. We will galvanise Baba’s followers and ensure that they make the right choice in 2027.”
He promised that all the political structures of the late president would be maintained.
“Truly, Baba has gone with his 12 million votes and we cannot have that again. But the talakawas and other structures who always rallied round Baba will not be discarded; we will maintain them,” he said.
Abia State Governor, Alex Otti, has expressed confidence that he will complete his eight-year tenure in office.
Otti stated this on Tuesday in his office while receiving members of the Old Students Association of the Federal School of Arts and Science, Aba, who visited him and expressed confidence that he would be re-elected to complete his projects in the state.
The governor said, “About 2027, we don’t let it distract us, but you have a point. Primaries will happen within the month and then elections will be next year. But we know that Abia people are not stupid.
“They know what is good for them. Because of that, we also know that it’s all about politics. And I’m not too sure that there is someone that would want to throw away what is good.
“This place is God’s own state. So, at the time that it pleased God, He makes changes here. And God doesn’t have unfinished business, or unfinished project.
“So, we are confident that we will complete the project that we have been asked to do by Abians.”
Otti commended the old students for their decision to renovate one of the hostels in their alma mater, describing the move as laudable.
“I want to also thank you for your decision to fix one of the hostels. It is a very laudable action that you have done, because you could have as well ignored it. I’m sure there are a lot of members of your school that may not even be coming for these meetings.
“So, I want to congratulate you and encourage you to continue, because your story cannot be told without this school,” Otti said.
The governor thanked the association for choosing Abia for its bi-annual meeting, noting that the decision was commendable.
He also disclosed that his decision to support Professor Bart Nnaji’s Aba Power project was to ensure steady power supply in the state, commending Nnaji’s resilience.
Otti said an agreement had been signed and that the state was at the point of payment to acquire the Umuahia ring-fenced area of the Enugu Electricity Distribution Company, adding that when completed, the remaining eight local government areas, including Umuahia and its environs, as well as Abia North Senatorial District, would be linked to Geometric Power.
“So, there’s excess power. Of course, with an additional turbine, it will be able to generate 188 megawatts. So, the whole idea is to take excess power from Aba to the other eight local governments in Abia Central and Abia North.
“We’ve also set up the Abia State Electricity Regulatory Agency. And so right now, everything about regulation is within the state. So, we will be detached from the national electricity grid,” Otti said.
Earlier, the President of the Old Students Association of the Federal School of Arts and Science, Aba, Tony Ejieji, commended the governor’s performance, noting that members were in the state for their bi-annual meeting.
He said the state had become peaceful and safe, hence their decision to host the meeting there, which had previously been held in Lagos.
Ejieji also praised the governor’s infrastructural projects across the state and urged him to sustain the momentum.
He added that members of the association were renovating one of the hostels in their alma mater and commended developments at the Geometric Power Plant in Aba and other projects in Aba and Umuahia.
The meeting was attended by the Commissioner for Tertiary Education and other government officials.
A former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, on Tuesday met with the Kano State Chairman of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, Hussaini Mairiga, in a move to resolve the lingering crisis within the party.
Mairiga confirmed the meeting in an interview with The PUNCH on Tuesday, noting that it involved key stakeholders of the party at the state level.
According to him, the engagement was aimed at addressing disagreements over the party’s structure and leadership in Kano State.
Following the meeting, Mairiga, in a statement, announced that the crisis had been resolved and expressed support for Kwankwaso’s leadership.
He said, “We had a fruitful discussion with Sen. Kwankwaso and other critical stakeholders of our great party. All lingering issues have been amicably resolved in the interest of unity and progress.
“As a party, we have agreed to move forward together, and we recognise Sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as our leader in Kano State.”
Mairiga further urged party members to remain calm and committed to the ideals of the NDC, stressing that unity was key to achieving success in future elections.
“I call on all our members to remain steadfast and work collectively for the growth of the party. This resolution marks a new beginning for the NDC in Kano,” he added.
The development follows days of tension within the Kano chapter of the party after Kwankwaso’s defection to the NDC alongside Peter Obi, a move that sparked concerns over control of the party structure.
The crisis deepened after the state chairman had earlier rejected alleged moves to cede leadership of the party to the former governor, insisting that the existing executives would not surrender control.
He had also disclosed that attempts to integrate Kwankwaso into the party initially stalled due to disagreements over leadership arrangements, with both sides holding separate meetings that failed to produce a consensus.
The situation further escalated amid claims that the party’s planned state congress was suspended, fuelling suspicions among some members over possible moves to restructure the party leadership in Kano.
Fresh cracks have emerged within Nigeria’s opposition bloc ahead of the 2027 presidential election, with deep divisions over the push for a single consensus candidate following the defection of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso to the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
Associates of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar said on Monday that plans by a broad opposition coalition to rally behind a consensus presidential candidate to challenge President Bola Tinubu in 2027 remain intact, despite recent political realignments.
(L-R) Aisha Binani, Peter Obi, Seriake Dickson and Rabiu Kwankwaso at the meeting on Sunday. Photo Credit: X / Seriake Dickson
They also dismissed concerns that the exit of Obi and Kwankwaso from the African Democratic Congress would weaken the opposition’s chances, insisting the coalition project is still viable.
Atiku, who resigned from the Peoples Democratic Party on the eve of his 79th birthday in 2025, had moved to the ADC as part of a broader strategy to unite opposition forces.
Obi and Kwankwaso — presidential candidates of the Labour Party and the New Nigeria People’s Party in 2023 —later joined him in the party in 2026.
However, political intrigues have since forced both men out of the ADC, leaving Atiku increasingly isolated within the coalition framework.
Speaking with The PUNCH in confidence, an ally of Atiku who declined to be named said, “It would have been better he gets the ticket first before we talk about whether he is committed to a single term of four years or not. For me, this is too early.”
A long-serving member of Atiku’s camp also rejected the idea of a single-term presidency, describing it as premature and distracting.
“This is like putting the cart before the horse. Atiku is presently interested in the growth and supremacy of the party, the ADC. Without the party, no individual ambition will survive. Talks such as the single term tenure, are mere distractions,” the source said.
Waxing philosophical, he likened the ADC to a moving train that would continue to attract new entrants despite recent exits.
“The party has to grow first and become formidable. The party is like a train. At some point, passengers will alert and others will get in. Obi and Kwankwaso have decided to get off the train but that has not stopped others from getting in. The destination is the 2027 election.
“Obi and Kwankwaso were not forced off the train. They got off themselves,” he added, noting that the coalition plan to unseat Tinubu remains alive.
“For us, nothing has changed. The coalition idea is still relevant today,” he said.
But key opposition figures and parties have distanced themselves from the single-candidate proposal, exposing widening fault lines.
Reacting, the National Leader of the NDC, Seriake Dickson, said the issue was not yet ripe for discussion.
He said, “We are not ready to discuss anything on the opposition fielding a single presidential candidate for tne 2027 election for now. When the right is right, the media will be one of the first to know about it.”
Similarly, National Chairman of the Peoples Redemption Party, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, stressed that while opposition parties remain open to alliances, their primary goal is to unseat the current administration.
“When we know who is in the team, we will devise ways in which we can either on our own or together collaborate. The key issue, the only goal in mind of the opposition, all of them, is to change this administration because it needs to go. Nigeria cannot survive another four years under this administration.
“Whatever we have to do legally, whatever we have to do to win this election either as a party or an alliance of parties, we will do. We will do it not because we want to take up offices but because we have to salvage this country and we’re very serious about this.
“So we are willing to enter into any arrangement that reinforces the strength of the opposition and so that we can change this government and make sure that President Tinubu and his government don’t come back and destroy this country,” he stated.
The Accord Party has also rejected claims linking it to any coalition plan for a single presidential candidate, distancing itself from a recent Ibadan summit where such discussions reportedly took place.
Meanwhile, a faction of the ADC led by Nafiu Bala Gombe similarly disowned the choice of a consensus presidential candidate, insisting the party would pursue an independent path.
“We are not in support of it and we as the Authentic members of the African Democratic Congress. So whatever resolution was taken in that place, we are not in support of it.
“The ADC is an existing party. It doesn’t exist yesterday, the day before yesterday, last week or last month. ADC has been in existence for almost 20 years now. We are fielding a candidate, and Inshallah, all the elective offices at all levels will support it.
“In my view, the Ibadan Summit can best be described as the reunion of former members of Peoples Democratic Party, aligning with aggrieved or disgruntled individuals who have been ignored from the party.
“So, for the record, I want to assure you that the African Democratic Congress was not involved in the summit, and should not be linked to any outcome or resolution coming from that summit. I understand.”
Labour Party also dismissed talks of a joint presidential ticket, saying the party has other plans.
“As it stands today, we are focused on getting substantive leadership for Labour party in our next convention.
“That is the position of the party for now. If there is a need for us in future to be in coalition with other political parties, we will inform Nigerians,” LP Spokesman, Ken Asogwa told our correspondent.
Abia State Governor, Alex Otti, echoed the same position.
He said, “Unfortunately, we are not part of that arrangement. We are hold our national convention. So, we are not bound by whatever happened at that summit.”
Despite the divisions, loyalists of Obi and Kwankwaso are pushing for a unified opposition ticket to emerge from the South, intensifying debates over zoning and coalition strategy.
The National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement Worldwide, Dr Yunusa Tanko, and the National Publicity Secretary of the Obi–Kwankwaso Movement, Justin Ijeh, argued that equity demands the presidency remain in the South.
Tanko said, “Yes, we are concerned about the zoning. That was why we’ve been asking for the presidency to be zoned to the southern part of this country considering the simple fact that the presidency has been zoned to the south.
“As you speak right now, what we have is a southern presidency. So once you have a southern president, it simply means that even if there is going to be a replacement for the existing president, it should come from the south for them to complete their tenure.
“I think it is only fair to do that. And that was why Mr Peter Obi has also agreed that he’s going to do only four years.”
He added that Obi would likely emerge as consensus candidate if adopted.
“Oh of course. That is because he’s the most popular candidate in the country at the moment. I’m being humble about it and I thank God for it. He’s the most popular especially among the youth. Anywhere he goes, he is adored.
“Let me give you an instance. We were on our way to Ibadan the other day and we passed through the international and local airport. You need to see the kind of love and euphoria people showered on him. It was amazing.
“The whole hall was agog with Nigerians shouting ‘Obi, Obi, Obi.’ It was so emotional for him and for some of us who are following him. So that is to tell you the kind of love and support Nigerians are ready to give this man,” he noted.
Ijeh also defended zoning as a pragmatic tool for national balance.
“While it is not embedded in the Nigerian constitution, and while competence and character are the gold standard for leadership ideally, zoning is a pragmatic approach to balanced representation and equity in a multipolar society like Nigeria.
“It has been practiced as a convention since the return of democratic rule. Certain politicians however may choose to play to the gallery about it when their personal interests and ambitions are not favoured by it.
“In the current calculus for Nigeria given our very recent political trajectory, it only makes sense for the zoning principle to be applied and for the presidency to remain in the South, in keeping with that convention. Anything else sets the country up for divisive complications in the near term future and nobody needs that.”
The latest controversy follows the formal defection of Obi and Kwankwaso to the NDC in Abuja, where both leaders urged party members to avoid internal litigations and focus on national development.
Obi, addressing supporters, said their move was driven by the search for a stable political platform free from internal crises, accusing the current administration of fuelling divisions within opposition parties.
Their exit from the ADC has since reshaped opposition dynamics, triggering fresh debates over coalition strategy, zoning, and the possibility—or feasibility—of presenting a single presidential candidate against Tinubu in 2027.
