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Crude earnings fall by N3.18tn amid output surge

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Nigeria’s crude oil exports declined by N3.18tn in the first half of 2025 despite an increase in production volumes, the latest foreign trade statistics report from the National Bureau of Statistics has shown.

It was observed that while the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported a 12.7 per cent rise in crude oil output during the period, export earnings from crude fell by more than 11 per cent year-on-year.

Between January and June 2025, crude oil exports totalled N24.92tn, down from N28.10tn in the same period of 2024. This represents an 11.3 per cent decline in value, or a loss of N3.18tn.

Further analysis of the foreign trade data from the NBS by The PUNCH showed that in the first quarter of 2025, crude exports stood at N12.96tn, compared to N15.49tn in Q1 2024. The difference of N2.53tn amounts to a 16.3 per cent fall. By the second quarter, the decline was less steep: exports dropped from N12.61tn in Q2 2024 to N11.97tn in Q2 2025, a reduction of N642bn or 5.1 per cent.

The contribution of crude oil to total exports also weakened. In Q1 2024, crude accounted for 80.8 per cent of Nigeria’s exports, but by Q1 2025 this had dropped to 62.9 per cent, a decline of nearly 18 percentage points. The downward trend continued in Q2, with crude making up 52.6 per cent of exports, compared to 71.2 per cent in Q2 2024 — a decline of about 18.6 percentage points.

By contrast, non-crude oil exports surged. In H1 2025, they more than doubled to N18.43tn, compared with N8.79tn in H1 2024 — a growth of 109.6 per cent or an additional N9.64tn. Non-oil exports alone rose from N3.74tn to N6.21tn, an increase of N2.47tn or 66 per cent.

Overall trade also expanded. Total exports in H1 2025 reached N43.35tn, up from N36.89tn in H1 2024, reflecting a 17.5 per cent increase. Imports, on the other hand, rose by a slimmer margin of 6.9 per cent, from N28.72tn in H1 2024 to N30.71tn in H1 2025.

This contributed to an improved trade balance, which grew by 54.6 per cent, from N8.17tn in H1 2024 to N12.64tn in H1 2025. The PUNCH further observed that crude oil’s dominance in Nigeria’s export profile is being eroded, with its share sliding from 76.2 per cent in H1 2024 to 57.5 per cent in H1 2025.

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The development highlights a paradox in Africa’s largest oil producer where rising output has not translated into stronger export performance, raising questions about domestic absorption, global oil demand, and pricing conditions. The data suggest that while Nigeria is pumping more crude, weaker global prices, rising domestic utilisation, or both, may be weighing on export receipts.

Earlier in March 2025, The PUNCH reported that Nigeria’s 2025 budget could come under pressure as crude oil prices slipped below the government’s benchmark projection of $75 per barrel. The situation, compounded by a dip in average daily crude production, was also expected to impact local refineries, including the Dangote plant and others.

While global factors such as falling oil prices may have contributed to the decline in export earnings, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has been supplying crude to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery under a naira-for-crude arrangement — a move analysts say could be diverting some volumes away from international markets.

Earlier in June 2025, The PUNCH reported that the Federal Government sold crude oil valued at N219.38bn to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in the first four months of 2025.

The government also earned $1.59m from crude oil exports in April 2025, during the period it suspended sales of domestic crude allocations to the Dangote refinery and local refiners. These details were contained in internal documents from the NNPCL, submitted at the Federation Account Allocation Committee meetings.

266.9m barrels crude

Nigeria pumped a total of 266.9 million barrels of crude oil between January and June 2025, according to figures obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission by The PUNCH. The data show that the country recorded higher output across all six months compared to the same period in 2024, when production stood at 236.7 million barrels.

In January 2025, crude production rose to 47.7 million barrels, higher than the 44.2 million barrels recorded in January 2024. February output also increased to 41 million barrels, up from 38.3 million barrels in the same month of the previous year.

The upward trend extended into March, where production climbed to 43.4 million barrels, a gain of more than 5 million barrels compared to 38.2 million barrels in March 2024. April saw output reach 44.6 million barrels, rising by nearly 6 million barrels from the 38.7 million barrels recorded in April the previous year.

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May’s figures showed a further improvement, with Nigeria producing 45 million barrels compared to 39.1 million barrels in May 2024. The highest year-on-year increase came in June, when production hit 45.2 million barrels, up from 38.1 million barrels a year earlier, a difference of about 7.1 million barrels.

Overall, the first half of 2025 saw crude production rise by 30.2 million barrels compared with the same period in 2024, representing a growth rate of 12.7 per cent. When condensates are included, total liquid output for the period reached 303.2 million barrels, compared to 275 million barrels recorded in the first half of 2024.

Industry watchers say the steady increase in crude production reflects improved operating conditions in the oil sector, though they caution that challenges such as pipeline vandalism, theft, and underinvestment continue to pose risks.

However, the NUPRC earlier revealed a 50.2 per cent reduction in crude oil losses during the first seven months of 2025. In a recent statement by the Head of Media and Strategic Communications at NUPRC, Eniola Akinkuotu, it was noted that between January and July 2025, the country lost 2.04 million barrels of crude oil, averaging 9,600 barrels per day, which is the lowest level since 2009 when losses were recorded at 8,500 barrels per day.

The current figures represent a 94.57 per cent drop from the losses experienced in 2021. The statement read, “Between January and July 2025, crude oil losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 barrels per day over the seven-month period. This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry.

“By comparison, the entire 2024 calendar year recorded 4.1 million barrels lost at a daily average of 11,300 barrels. Remarkably, in just the first seven months of 2025, losses were cut by 50.2 per cent, with only 2.04 million barrels lost over the period.

“The figures for the period ending July 2025 also represent a dramatic 94.57 per cent drop in crude oil losses compared to the full year of 2021, when Nigeria lost a staggering 37.6 million barrels at a daily average of 102,900 barrels.”

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According to the statement, the progress was made possible by a combination of effective regulatory measures and collaboration with security agencies, oil operators, and local communities.

The NUPRC’s metering audit, aimed at ensuring accurate measurements of production and exports, has played a pivotal role in reducing discrepancies. NUPRC’s success is also attributed to the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act in 2021, which has significantly contributed to the downward trend in oil losses.

Also, the commission has adopted both kinetic and non-kinetic strategies to tackle the issue, continuing to work closely with stakeholders in the oil sector to ensure the country’s resources are better protected.

Earlier in June 2025, the Executive Coordinator of the Independent Petroleum Producers Group, Oyeleke Banmeke, said that crude oil theft in Nigeria has reduced significantly compared to figures recorded about two to three years ago.

Banmeke commended the current administration of President Bola Tinubu for improvements in security along the country’s oil-producing corridors, particularly in the Niger Delta.

Speaking earlier on the likely impact of crude oil prices on government revenue, an Energy Professor at the Lagos State University, Dayo Ayoade, said the drop in crude production prices would affect the budget adversely, though it would bring down fuel prices.

Ayoade also said that the government must do its best to achieve two million barrels per day, or the refineries will have to resort to imports, which may impact the fuel prices.

Similarly, Professor Adeola Adenikinju of the Department of Economics at the University of Ibadan argued that the decline in crude oil prices is like a two-edged sword. He said it would lower the prices of refined products, such as PMS.

“But macroeconomically, it’s going to have implications, especially for government revenue, simply because the two critical assumptions, you know, that would change the budget were the oil price and oil volume. So, if oil prices go down and persist, then that will mean that budget implementation will be very difficult,” he said.

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Nigeria needs 25m tonnes of maize annually – FG

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The Federal Government says Nigeria requires no fewer than 25 million tonnes of maize annually to meet national demand and strengthen food security.

The Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Security, Sen. Aliyu Abdullahi, disclosed this on Friday in Abuja during a Quarterly Citizens and Stakeholders’ Engagement meeting.

Abdullahi said the government had intensified efforts to meet the demand by boosting local production and reducing dependence on food imports.

“Our focus is on expanding local production so affordable and nutritious food becomes accessible to every Nigerian,” he said.

He added that ongoing interventions were already influencing market trends, noting that prices of essential food commodities had declined nationwide.

“Our efforts are paying off. Prices of major food commodities have dropped by about 50 per cent across the country.

“These efforts reflect our commitment to improving food security and citizens’ well-being. We are addressing high input costs to sustain an affordable food supply,” Abdullahi said.

He said strategic investment in agricultural value chains was positioning Nigeria to become a major force in the global agricultural market.

“We have prioritised rice, maize and wheat value chains, creating opportunities for millions of smallholder farmers and other stakeholders,” he said.

Abdullahi said the ministry was aligning policies with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda to achieve food sovereignty.

“The goal is clear: Nigeria must produce what it consumes and consume what it produces,” he said.

According to him, the ministry is implementing reforms aimed at transforming the nation’s agricultural landscape and expanding production across priority crops.

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He urged stakeholders to collaborate closely with state agriculture ministries to accelerate productivity nationwide.

“Together we can transform Nigeria’s food system and ensure sustainable agricultural growth for the benefit of all Nigerians,” Abdullahi said.

He described the engagement meeting as part of the ministry’s commitment to transparency, open governance and inclusive collaboration.

“This platform underscores the importance of stakeholder engagement in shaping sound policies and ensuring effective implementation,” he said.

Abdullahi added that the initiative would strengthen collaboration aimed at ensuring food remains available, accessible and affordable across the country.

The meeting featured representatives of the media, civil society organisations, farmers’ groups, agro-allied businesses, development partners, donor agencies and government institutions.

NAN

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Nigerians lose millions in dashed Umrah dreams due to US-Iran war

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Hundreds of Nigerian Muslims preparing for this year’s Umrah pilgrimage have been stranded after the escalating United States/Israel-Iran war disrupted flight operations across the Middle East, forcing airlines to cancel services and leaving intending pilgrims and travel agents counting millions of naira in losses.

Saturday PUNCH gathered that many of the affected pilgrims had already obtained visas and paid for flights and accommodation in Mecca and Medina before airlines began suspending services across parts of the Middle East due to the conflict.

Some of the intending pilgrims, who spoke to our correspondent, said they were scheduled to depart Nigeria between March 4 and 6 for the holy pilgrimage but were unable to travel after several airlines cancelled or suspended operations in the region.

Umrah is a lesser Hajj performed by Muslims all year round in Saudi Arabia, but it usually draws large numbers of Islamic faithful during Ramadan.

Millions of Muslims usually perform Umrah during the last 10 days of Ramadan.

Available records show that over 122 million Muslims performed Umrah during the 2025 Ramadan period.

However, the scale of strikes by Iran on US military bases and other target areas in the Middle East has forced many airlines to suspend flights in Gulf states.

On February 28, US President Donald Trump and Israel declared war on Iran, killing the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after missiles struck his office in Tehran.

Dubbed ‘Operation Epic Fury,’ both the US and Israeli militaries launched strikes against targets in Iranian cities, triggering explosions and columns of smoke.

This followed months of simmering tensions and a total collapse of diplomacy and negotiations between the US and Iran over the development of nuclear weapons by the Islamic Republic.

Speaking from the Mar-a-Lago Situation Room on Friday, Trump framed the offensive as a pre-emptive necessity to neutralise Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Tehran also launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks across several countries in the Middle East and nearby regions, targeting US bases, allied facilities and strategic infrastructure.

Iran’s retaliation, codenamed, ‘Truthful Promise 4,’ also saw dozens of missiles launched toward Israel.

Tehran has attacked military bases and assets in about 10 countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Iraq and Oman.

The war resulted in the closure of critical airspace routes such as Doha and Dubai, while Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE all announced at least partial closures of their skies after the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.

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Similarly, many airlines, including Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, Air France, Turkish Airlines, EgyptAir and Ethiopian Airlines, cancelled services in the region due to the tensions.

Umrah plans disrupted

The cancellation of services by the airlines disrupted the Umrah plans of many Nigerian Muslims who had made the necessary arrangements for the trip.

Saturday PUNCH gathered that a local government chairman in Ilorin, Kwara State, and two other government officials were affected by the cancellation of airline services.

The intending pilgrims, according to one of them who spoke with Saturday PUNCH on condition of anonymity, were to leave Nigeria on March 4 with Emirates Airline.

The government official disclosed that they had secured accommodation at Poinciana Hotel in Mecca and another facility in Medina.

According to him, a sum of 12,500 Riyal was paid by each of them for a hotel in Mecca for their entire stay, while those who intended to lodge in Medina had paid 7,000 Riyal per night.

“It is a painful experience that we couldn’t proceed with the Umrah trip because of the war. We had paid for everything – visa fee, accommodation, flight and other expenses. We are four in a group that wanted to go for the Umrah. A local government chairman is among us, alongside two other government officials.

“My hotel accommodation in Mecca cost 12,500 Riyal, equivalent to about N5m. Some other people that I know have also paid 7,500 Riyal per night for a room in a Medina hotel, and they booked for four nights.

“We have invested millions of naira in the trip, and our visa will expire on April 8,” he said.

The official added that the travel agent who packaged the trip for them had sought a refund from Emirates Airline, but was told they could only reschedule their trip, with the airline declining the refund request.

“Our agent has spoken with the hotel management in Mecca and Medina, but nothing concrete has come out. We were told that even if we are refunded, it would not be the full amount we paid,” he added.

Similarly, a popular butcher in Osogbo, Osun State, Rasaq (surname withheld as requested), lamented that he had spent over N13m on the Umrah trip for himself and his wife.

According to Rasaq, he and his wife were to leave for Saudi Arabia on Qatar Airways from the Murtala Muhammed Airport in Lagos on March 3 before the airline cancelled services in the Middle East.

“We were to lodge at a hotel in Medina and everything had been paid for. We were set for the trip; it cost us about N13m, including visa fees, hotel accommodation and flight tickets.

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“Apart from me and my wife, two other people were going with us. We were supposed to travel in a group, but everything has been messed up for us. It is painful. Our agent is talking to Qatar Airways for a refund,” he said.

However, the agent told Saturday PUNCH that the airline could only reschedule the intending pilgrims’ flight based on his discussion with the company.

The agent, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said, “It is true that we are seeking a refund from the airline, but I am not sure it will work out. The cancellation of services in the Middle East by the airline is as a result of the war, not because of any issue from the airline.

“When things like this happen, what airlines generally do is ask the clients to reschedule their trip, and a new air ticket will be issued for them. I am also in touch with the hotel management in Medina, but I cannot disclose everything.”

This is as an Islamic cleric in Ibadan, Oyo State, Alhaji Jamiu Babatunde, told Saturday PUNCH that his planned trip was disrupted after his flight booking was cancelled.

“I was supposed to travel when Ramadan reaches the 20th day using Qatar Airways, but I received a message that my ticket had been cancelled and reopened.

“I planned to travel with my family. It was a promise I made two years ago and we had worked towards it. Now we are stranded and not sure it will be possible again this year,” he lamented.

Similarly, Ibadan-based businessman Abdullahi Abubakar said the uncertainty had also affected his business preparations ahead of the Sallah celebration.

“Beyond the spiritual aspect, I usually use the Umrah trip to buy goods to stock my shop for Sallah.

“Before now, my problem was raising the money to complete payment, but now with the situation in the region, I don’t know what to do.”

Another intending pilgrim in the Agege area of Lagos, Mrs Ramat Abdullahi, said she had decided to postpone her trip due to safety concerns linked to the regional crisis.

“This would have been my first time performing Umrah, but with the situation in the region, I decided to postpone the journey until next year,” she said.

Speaking with Saturday PUNCH, an Islamic cleric and founder of Almuhsinoon Islamic Centre, Manchester, UK, Munir Hussein, who has been facilitating Umrah trips for Muslims, said four of his team members in Nigeria could not make it to this year’s Umrah as a result of the war.

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“I was meant to leave here (UK) on Monday, but we couldn’t go because the UK government issued a travel alert. Four members of my team are also in Nigeria; they were to leave on March 6, but that is no longer possible. Everything was set for our trip, but here we are.

“The airlines we were to use are asking us to reschedule, so there will not be any refund from their end. Hotels are offering zero refunds. Our losses are in many dimensions, including visa, flight, accommodation and food that had been fully paid,” he added.

Oyo businessman trapped in Mecca

Speaking with Saturday PUNCH via telephone from Makkah, an Oyo State-based businessman, Alhaji Ishola Abdulmalik, said the tensions in the Middle East had disrupted his usual Ramadan travel schedule.

“I come to Saudi Arabia every year when Ramadan is five days old and usually return to Nigeria around the 15th day to participate in my town’s annual Ramadan programme as the chairman of the organising committee. I then return to Saudi Arabia on the 25th day of Ramadan and come back home on Sallah day.

“This year, I cannot follow that routine because of the situation. Although I am stranded here because travelling has become difficult, there is no tension in Saudi Arabia. There are no restrictions and we are observing our worship normally,” he said.

Abdulmalik explained that Saudi Arabia had not shut its airspace and commercial flights were still arriving in the kingdom, but disruptions at major international transit hubs had made it difficult for many pilgrims to travel.

“I can’t leave not because Saudi Arabia has closed its airspace, but because disruptions at major connection hubs have affected travel arrangements,” Abdulmalik added.

He also revealed that some Nigerian pilgrims whose flights were cancelled were struggling to cover accommodation costs.

“There are people here, including a couple from Niger State, whose Qatar Airways flight was cancelled and they couldn’t afford to continue paying for their hotel. I had to help them settle it.

“There are others that some of us who are a little buoyant have had to support by contributing among ourselves to pay their hotel bills,” he said.

Both Emirates Airline and Qatar Airways have yet to respond to messages sent to their emails as of the time of filing this report.

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World’s Top 100 Biggest Economies in 2026

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1. 🇨🇳 China – $43.49 Trillion
2. 🇺🇸 United States – $31.82 Trillion
3. 🇮🇳 India – $19.14 Trillion
4. 🇷🇺 Russia – $7.34 Trillion
5. 🇯🇵 Japan – $6.92 Trillion
6. 🇩🇪 Germany – $6.32 Trillion
7. 🇮🇩 Indonesia – $5.36 Trillion
8. 🇧🇷 Brazil – $5.16 Trillion
9. 🇫🇷 France – $4.66 Trillion
10. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom – $4.59 Trillion
11. 🇹🇷 Turkey – $3.98 Trillion
12. 🇮🇹 Italy – $3.82 Trillion
13. 🇲🇽 Mexico – $3.55 Trillion
14. 🇰🇷 South Korea – $3.49 Trillion
15. 🇪🇸 Spain – $2.94 Trillion
16. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia – $2.85 Trillion
17. 🇨🇦 Canada – $2.81 Trillion
18. 🇪🇬 Egypt – $2.53 Trillion
19. 🇳🇬 Nigeria – $2.39 Trillion
20. 🇵🇱 Poland – $2.12 Trillion
21. 🇹🇼 Taiwan – $2.07 Trillion
22. 🇦🇺 Australia – $2.06 Trillion
23. 🇻🇳 Vietnam – $1.94 Trillion
24. 🇮🇷 Iran – $1.93 Trillion
25. 🇹🇭 Thailand – $1.92 Trillion
26. 🇧🇩 Bangladesh – $1.90 Trillion
27. 🇵🇰 Pakistan – $1.76 Trillion
28. 🇵🇭 Philippines – $1.59 Trillion
29. 🇦🇷 Argentina – $1.58 Trillion
30. 🇲🇾 Malaysia – $1.56 Trillion
31. 🇳🇱 Netherlands – $1.56 Trillion
32. 🇨🇴 Colombia – $1.24 Trillion
33. 🇿🇦 South Africa – $1.06 Trillion
34. 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates – $1.00 Trillion
35. 🇸🇬 Singapore – $988.8 Billion
36. 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan – $973.4 Billion
37. 🇷🇴 Romania – $949.3 Billion
38. 🇧🇪 Belgium – $925.7 Billion
39. 🇩🇿 Algeria – $915.8 Billion
40. 🇨🇭 Switzerland – $909.1 Billion
41. 🇮🇪 Ireland – $836.7 Billion
42. 🇸🇪 Sweden – $809.5 Billion
43. 🇨🇱 Chile – $740.4 Billion
44. 🇮🇶 Iraq – $739.1 Billion
45. 🇺🇦 Ukraine – $730.8 Billion
46. 🇦🇹 Austria – $705.0 Billion
47. 🇵🇪 Peru – $682.8 Billion
48. 🇨🇿 Czech Republic – $677.7 Billion
49. 🇳🇴 Norway – $621.1 Billion
50. 🇭🇰 Hong Kong – $618.1 Billion
51. 🇮🇱 Israel – $600.5 Billion
52. 🇵🇹 Portugal – $556.4 Billion
53. 🇪🇹 Ethiopia – $530.8 Billion
54. 🇩🇰 Denmark – $529.3 Billion
55. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan – $511.0 Billion
56. 🇬🇷 Greece – $485.1 Billion
57. 🇭🇺 Hungary – $478.5 Billion
58. 🇲🇦 Morocco – $457.5 Billion
59. 🇰🇪 Kenya – $430.3 Billion
60. 🇦🇴 Angola – $417.2 Billion
61. 🇶🇦 Qatar – $410.6 Billion
62. 🇫🇮 Finland – $384.9 Billion
63. 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic – $353.7 Billion
64. 🇧🇾 Belarus – $319.5 Billion
65. 🇹🇿 Tanzania – $317.9 Billion
66. 🇪🇨 Ecuador – $315.9 Billion
67. 🇬🇭 Ghana – $314.6 Billion
68. 🇳🇿 New Zealand – $309.1 Billion
69. 🇬🇹 Guatemala – $297.1 Billion
70. 🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire – $289.1 Billion
71. 🇲🇲 Myanmar – $286.4 Billion
72. 🇰🇼 Kuwait – $285.9 Billion
73. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan – $282.2 Billion
74. 🇧🇬 Bulgaria – $279.2 Billion
75. 🇸🇰 Slovak Republic – $266.9 Billion
76. 🇴🇲 Oman – $245.9 Billion
77. 🇻🇪 Venezuela – $231.4 Billion
78. 🇷🇸 Serbia – $225.6 Billion
79. 🇨🇩 Dem. Rep. of the Congo – $225.5 Billion
80. 🇵🇦 Panama – $211.0 Billion
81. 🇭🇷 Croatia – $207.4 Billion
82. 🇺🇬 Uganda – $205.3 Billion
83. 🇳🇵 Nepal – $194.9 Billion
84. 🇹🇳 Tunisia – $193.6 Billion
85. 🇨🇲 Cameroon – $183.3 Billion
86. 🇨🇷 Costa Rica – $178.0 Billion
87. 🇱🇹 Lithuania – $173.1 Billion
88. 🇵🇷 Puerto Rico – $166.3 Billion
89. 🇰🇭 Cambodia – $160.0 Billion
90. 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan – $159.0 Billion
91. 🇵🇾 Paraguay – $145.1 Billion
92. 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe – $144.9 Billion
93. 🇯🇴 Jordan – $138.0 Billion
94. 🇸🇩 Sudan – $135.9 Billion
95. 🇺🇾 Uruguay – $135.1 Billion
96. 🇱🇾 Libya – $132.8 Billion
97. 🇸🇮 Slovenia – $128.1 Billion
98. 🇬🇪 Georgia – $123.0 Billion
99. 🇧🇭 Bahrain – $118.1 Billion
100. 🇱🇺 Luxembourg – $108.6 Billion

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Nigeria 🇳🇬 ranks 19 biggest economies in the world, based on PPP (Purchasing Power Parity)

Source: IMF via Voronoi by Visual Capitalist

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