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Nigeria imports 15bn litres of petrol despite Dangote refinery output

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Nigeria imported about 15.01 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) between August 2024 and the first 10 days of October 2025, representing nearly 69 per cent of the total national petrol supply during the 15-month period. This is despite the fact that the Dangote refinery started petrol production in September 2024.

Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority show that total PMS supply for the period stood at 21.68 billion litres, with 6.67 billion litres, or 31 per cent, coming from domestic refining. The data, titled Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply – August 2024 to October 2025), captured supply trends over 15 months, highlighting the gradual rise in local production and a corresponding drop in imports.

According to the breakdown, imported petrol averaged 44.60 million litres per day in August 2024 and rose to 54.30 million litres per day in September 2024, marking the peak of import dependence during the period. This was a time when the Dangote refinery began PMS supply to the local market.

It was noted that imports began to decline steadily, falling to 24.15 million litres per day by January 2025, 19.26 million litres per day in September 2025, and 15.11 million litres per day within the first 10 days of October 2025.

The decline in petrol imports showed that the Dangote refinery is gradually taking a significant share of the market, but this comes with stiff competition from petrol importers, who repeatedly accused Aliko Dangote of stifling competitors with consistent price reductions.

As domestic refining grew consistently through the period, local production, which stood at 6.43 million litres per day in September 2024, increased to 22.66 million litres per day in January 2025 before stabilising around 20 million litres per day in subsequent months. By October 2025, the Dangote refinery was producing an average of 18.93 million litres per day, exceeding imports for that month.

The data also showed notable supply fluctuations across the months as total daily PMS supply peaked at 60.73 million litres in September 2024 before dropping to 44.08 million litres in April 2025 and further to 34.04 million litres by October 2025. The variations reflected shifts in both import availability and refinery operations.

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This is an indication that daily consumption has dropped significantly from an average of 60.73 million litres per day in September 2024 to 51.57 million litres in July 2025, 41.86 million in August, 34.86 million in September and 34.04 million per day in the first 10 days of October 2025.

Recall that the Federal Government totally deregulated the petrol sector in September last year, stopping the controversial fuel subsidies which the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited was paying on imported petrol.

A month-by-month analysis revealed that the highest domestic output was recorded in January 2025, with a daily average of 22.66 million litres, while the lowest was in August 2024, when no local production was recorded because Dangote had yet to commence production at that time.

The highest total supply was in September 2024 at 60.73 million litres per day, followed by October and November 2024, when total daily supply averaged 56.01 and 55.75 million litres, respectively. By the end of the review period, cumulative petrol imports had reached 15,009.85 million litres, while domestic production amounted to 6,672.44 million litres, giving a combined total of 21,682.29 million litres supplied over the 445 days between August 2024 and October 1-10, 2025.

The figures underline the ongoing transition in Nigeria’s petrol supply structure, showing a gradual but measurable increase in the contribution of domestic refining. However, the data also confirmed that imports continued to dominate the national supply mix for most of the period.

It could be recalled that while marketers insisted on importation, the Dangote refinery has been exporting petrol to other countries, including the United States. The 650,000 refinery has consistently boasted of its capacity to meet local fuel demands while exporting to foreign countries.

Aliko Dangote’s plan for building the refinery was to end Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel despite being an oil-producing nation. However, marketers have continued to import petrol into Nigeria, competing heavily with the refinery.

Recently, the Dangote refinery challenged marketers to bring their trucks for fuel loading, boasting that it has over 310 million litres of petrol in its ranks. The Vice President of the Dangote Group, Devakumar Edwin, stated that marketers were allowed to bring any trucks for loading at the gantry, as the refinery had enough fuel for the local market and for exports.

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“I have more than 310 million litres of PMS as of today inside my tanks, apart from the production which is coming out every day. Bring your tankers. We will load. Any number of tankers you bring, we’ll load. It’s a challenge I’m throwing today. No one can come and tell me I’m not loading. We can load any number of tankers you bring. So, you can see whether I have the capacity to produce or not. We have more than 310 million litres as of now,” he stressed.

The Dangote refinery had in September exported more fuel to foreign nations when Saudi Aramco and others in the Middle East Gulf closed refineries for maintenance.

A senior officer at the Dangote refinery told our correspondent that the $20bn Lekki-based plant exported large volumes of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), aviation fuel, and diesel to other countries in August.

The official, who spoke in confidence as he was not authorised to speak with the press, said, “We export PMS, diesel and aviation fuel.”

Our correspondent gathered that the Dangote refinery had supplied two long-range cargoes of fuel to the Mideast Gulf region between June and July. According to Argus Media, a heavy refinery turnaround season in the Mideast Gulf was expected to exacerbate an already tight gasoline market in the fourth quarter, prompting key regional suppliers to boost imports.

In February, the Dangote refinery said it sold two cargoes of aviation fuel to Saudi Aramco. Aliko Dangote announced that the refinery achieved a significant milestone by successfully exporting the two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer.

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Dangote said the refinery was reaching the ambitious goals it set for itself as it ramps up production.

“We are reaching the ambitious goals we set for ourselves, and I’m pleased to announce that we’ve just sold two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco,” he said in February, adding that since its production began in 2024, the refinery has steadily increased its output.

Some months ago, he disclosed that the oil refinery had begun exporting PMS to other countries of the world. According to him, between June and July 2025, the refinery exported up to one million tonnes of petrol.

“Today, Nigeria has actually become a net exporter of refined products. From the beginning of June to date (July 22), we have exported about one million tonnes of PMS within the last 50 days,” he said.

The NMDPRA also testified that the Dangote refinery supplies an average of 20 million litres of petrol into the local market.

“Without a shadow of a doubt, the operation of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery has changed the supply dynamics, with an average daily contribution of up to 20 million litres, undoubtedly with potential for a future ramp-up,” NMDPRA Chief Executive, Farouk Ahmed, said recently in Lagos.

The data underscores Nigeria’s ongoing transition from heavy reliance on imported petrol to a more balanced supply structure driven by domestic refining. While the country still depends significantly on foreign fuel, the steady growth in local production, particularly from the Dangote refinery, signals a gradual shift toward self-sufficiency.

However, the competition between importers and the refinery, coupled with market pricing challenges, suggests that achieving full local dominance will take time. With refining capacity expanding and consumption patterns adjusting, Nigeria appears to be entering a new phase in its downstream petroleum landscape, one defined by increased domestic output, reduced imports, and the potential to finally end decades of fuel dependence.

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Hardship: Labour pushes N154,000 minimum wage

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The National Public Service Negotiating Council of the Organised Labour has formally demanded a N154,000 minimum wage, a 120 per cent upward review of salaries and allowances for public workers in Nigeria.

The new demand, according to the union, is to mitigate what it described as the “life of servitude” currently being experienced in the country.

The demand was contained in a letter addressed to the Office of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation, dated March 12, 2026, with reference number JNPSNC/Gen/Cor/Vol 1/163.

The demand was titled “Urgent need for the upward review of salaries and allowances of workers in the Nigerian public service and commendation for the approval of gratuity payment to retiring workers.”

The letter was jointly signed by the National Chairman of JNPSNC, Benjamin Anthony, and the National Secretary, Olowoyo Gbenga.

The JNPSNC premised its demand on the outcome of an exhaustive meeting of the council held on Monday, March 9, 2026, at the AUPCTRE National Secretariat, Wuse Zone 4, Abuja, Federal Capital Territory.

The letter read, “The National leadership of Joint National Public Service Negotiating Council writes to respectfully but firmly call the attention of your esteemed office to the urgent necessity for an upward review of salaries and allowances of all serving Public Servants in the Nigerian Public Service.

“Despite their immense contributions, public service workers continue to face severe economic hardship due to the rising cost of living and the declining purchasing power of their earnings.”

The council noted that over the years, Nigeria has experienced unprecedented economic pressures characterised by high inflation, increased fuel prices, rising transportation costs, and escalating prices of food items, housing, healthcare, and education.

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“The above realities have significantly eroded the real value of workers’ salaries and have made it increasingly difficult for many public servants to maintain a decent standard of living.

“It is important to note that the last major adjustments in workers’ remuneration have not sufficiently kept pace with the current economic realities.

“Many workers are now struggling to meet basic financial obligations, which has inevitably affected the morale, motivation, and overall productivity within the Public Service.”

The council stated that the national leadership of the Joint National Public Service Negotiating Council, therefore, strongly advocates an immediate and comprehensive review of the existing salary structure and allowances to reflect current economic conditions and ensure fairness, equity, and sustainability in workers’ remuneration.

“An upward review of workers’ salaries and allowances is a desideratum,” it stated.

It further noted that workers in the Nigerian Public Service had continued to demonstrate remarkable patience, professionalism, and commitment to their duties despite the prevailing economic difficulties.

However, it stressed that concrete steps must now be taken to safeguard their welfare and dignity.

In light of the foregoing, the council called on the office of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation to urgently initiate the necessary processes for the upward review of salaries and allowances of public servants in Nigeria.

The council asked the Office of the Head of Service to initiate immediate negotiations and direct the National Salaries, Income and Wages Commission and relevant committees to begin immediate discussions with the Joint National Public Service Negotiating Council to negotiate for an upward review of salaries and allowances.

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“Consequently, new salary templates should be developed such that the minimum salary payable to an officer on Grade Level 01 Step 1 shall be N154,000 per month for Federal Public Servants (120% increase in Salaries and allowances).

“Harmonise Wages: ensure that the upward review is applied across all Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs), and strongly encourage implementation at sub-national levels to ensure equity;

“Implement Cost-of-Living Adjustments: Introduce automatic, periodic salary and allowance adjustments that align with inflation rates to prevent the recurring lag between wage review cycles; and prioritise welfare components: in addition to basic salary, implement non-monetary incentives such as subsidised transportation and affordable housing for civil servants,” the letter noted.

The council emphasised that a timely upward review of public servants’ salaries and allowances is not merely an economic imperative but a social necessity to ensure the sustenance of the workforce, maintain industrial harmony, and improve the efficiency of public service delivery.

It also reiterated its commitment to constructive dialogue with the government.

“We remain committed to constructive dialogue, resourceful engagement and collaboration with the government toward achieving a fair, sustainable, and mutually beneficial outcome for all stakeholders.

“We trust that this request will receive the prompt attention and action it deserves in the interest of workers, the Public Service as an institution and the nation at large; so as to nip in the bud possible escalation that may nosedive into spontaneous social unrest,” it added.

The national leadership of the council commended President Bola Tinubu for approving 100 per cent gratuity payment to retiring federal public servants.

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The commendation was conveyed through the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation, Didi Esther Walson-Jack.

According to the council, the approval represented a major step towards improving the welfare of retiring public servants.

“From the perspective of the national leadership of the Joint National Public Service Negotiating Council, the approval is not only a positive development but also a bold step towards ensuring that retiring public servants escape the life of servitude and serfdom often being experienced when out of public service which is always characterised by impoverish life after service,” it said.

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Refineries spend N5.7tn on foreign oil despite naira-for-crude policy

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Despite its status as Africa’s largest crude oil producer, Nigeria imported crude oil worth a staggering N5.734tn between January and December 2025 as domestic refineries grappled with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector, The PUNCH reports.

This comes in spite of the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude policy designed to prioritise local supply.

Yet, even as the policy sought to channel crude to local refineries, Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels and earned about N55.5tn from crude oil sales in 2025, highlighting a stark disconnect between robust upstream output and domestic supply shortages.

Data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics and analysed by our correspondent on Tuesday, showed that the surge represents a dramatic shift from 2024, when no crude imports were recorded, indicating a 100 per cent increase year-on-year.

An analysis of the NBS Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report revealed that crude oil imports, classified under “Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude”, became one of Nigeria’s major import items in 2025, driven by supply shortages to domestic refineries.

In the first quarter alone, Nigeria imported crude worth N1.19tn, underscoring the urgency with which refinery operators turned to alternative feedstock sources.

The figure rose sharply by about 37.8 per cent to N1.64tn in the second quarter, before climbing further by 46.5 per cent to N2.403tn in the third quarter, reflecting intensifying domestic supply constraints.

However, imports dropped steeply by approximately 79.2 per cent to N499.75bn in the fourth quarter, suggesting a late-year easing in demand or improved local availability, though still indicative of a volatile and inconsistent crude supply environment throughout the year.

Although the NBS report did not name specific refineries, the pattern reflects the broader systemic failure in aligning domestic crude production with local refining demand.

A further breakdown of the figures shows wide monthly fluctuations in crude imports, reflecting unstable supply conditions in the domestic market.

Refineries imported crude worth N335.69bn in January, rising by 32.6 per cent to N445.27bn in February, before declining by 8.5 per cent to N407.29bn in March.

Imports dipped slightly to N335.31bn in April but surged dramatically by 116 per cent to N724.23bn in May, suggesting heightened supply constraints locally.

In June, imports fell by 19.5 per cent to N582.94bn, before spiking to a yearly peak of N1.28tn in July, an increase of about 120 per cent, marking the highest monthly import bill in the year.

This was followed by a 51.8 per cent drop to N619.24bn in August, and further declines to N499.41bn in September and N407.08bn in October.

Imports plunged sharply by 77.2 per cent to N92.67bn in November, before dropping to zero in December, indicating a temporary easing of demand or improved local supply towards year-end.

Overall, the trend underscores a volatile supply environment, with refineries forced to adjust sourcing strategies month by month.

Findings by The PUNCH indicate that local refineries, ranging from modular plants to mega facilities such as the Dangote Refinery, are increasingly turning to international markets due to persistent challenges in sourcing crude domestically.

The refineries cite a combination of structural and commercial factors behind the development.

This was confirmed by the Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria, which noted that refineries turn to imports for survival and increased production capacity.

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The CORAN Publicity secretary, Eche Idoko, stated in an interview that domestic refiners within the supply chain have been marginalised.

He confirmed that for several months, no allocation has been received under the Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation framework, naira for crude policy or through any other special arrangements.

He said, “Local refiners, especially the modular refineries, have not been getting crude, I mean zero allocation, under the DCSO or any other special arrangement.”

He said the DCSO implementation has been hampered by the ‘willing buyer, willing seller’ policy

Idoko said a modular refinery like Opac couldn’t get crude, and it stopped production for months.

According to Idoko, local refineries have the capacity to produce more than their current output, blaming the lack of enough feedstock for the current output. “We have the capacity to produce far more than what we are producing now. The challenge has always been inadequate feedstock,” he stated.

Idoko stated that some modular refineries like OPAC produce about 10 per cent of their capacities, while some shut down due to a lack of crude oil.

“A good example, the OPAC refinery has a 10,000-barrel capacity. It produces just about 1,000, and it’s not consistent. Sometimes, the refinery is shut down for months because of the unavailability of crude. The Dangote refinery was recently producing at 60 per cent of its total capacity due to the unavailability of feedstock.”

Earlier this month, Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals also cleared the air on the crude oil supply being received from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company under the naira-for-crude arrangement, disclosing that it receives five cargoes of crude monthly which are paid for in naira.

However, it stated that this falls significantly short of the 13 cargoes required each month to meet domestic demand.

The refinery in a statement issued further explained that the shortfall of eight cargoes is being bought from other sources outside the country.

In addition, it stated that the NNPC cargoes are priced at international market rates plus a premium.

As a result, the company said it is compelled to source additional crude from local and international traders, procuring foreign exchange at prevailing open market rates to complete the purchases.

Further investigations revealed that International Oil Companies operating in Nigeria have been reluctant to prioritise domestic crude supply, largely due to better pricing and fewer regulatory constraints in the international market.

Experts say IOCs prefer exporting crude under long-term contracts denominated in dollars, rather than selling locally under conditions that may involve pricing benchmarks, currency risks, or policy uncertainties.

They added that disputes over pricing frameworks, particularly when crude is sold at a premium and third-party influence, have further complicated domestic supply arrangements.

Similarly, an alternative solution provided by the government through the naira-for-crude policy to allow domestic refineries to purchase crude oil in local currency, reduce pressure on foreign exchange, and ensure a steady feedstock supply hasn’t met expectations.

The policy introduced in October 2024 gained prominence with the ramp-up of refining capacity, particularly from the Dangote Refinery, and was expected to mark a turning point in Nigeria’s downstream sector.

Under the arrangement, refiners would pay for crude in naira, while the government would manage foreign exchange implications through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

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However, the 2025 import figures suggest that the policy has not fully achieved its core objective.

This situation is driven by several structural challenges, including a mismatch between allocated crude and refinery demand, persistent pricing disagreements over benchmark terms, concerns among upstream producers about naira volatility, and existing forward sales and export commitments that limit the volume of crude available for domestic refining.

The NBS data further showed that Nigeria sourced its imported crude primarily from African countries such as Algeria, Angola while imports from the United States of America accounting for the largest share.

This trend reflects the growing integration of global crude markets, where refiners prioritise reliability and quality over geographic proximity.

Commenting, energy analysts have faulted the implementation of the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy, arguing that it has failed to significantly improve domestic crude supply or reduce fuel prices.

The Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said the policy has delivered little impact since its introduction in 2024, as most refineries continue to rely heavily on imported crude.

Speaking in a telephone interview with The PUNCH, he said, “For me, the naira-for-crude policy that was initiated in 2024 has not yielded any reasonable output because the Dangote refinery still sources about 65 to 70 per cent of its feedstock from abroad, while about 95 per cent of modular refineries also source their crude outside the naira-for-crude initiative.

“So, the initiative, for me, is not effective, and that is why we are still seeing a large inflow and importation of crude oil in 2025. In turn, prices at the depot and pump have not been different from when we were fully importing refined products.”

He noted that while the coming on stream of large-scale refining capacity has improved product availability, it has not translated into price relief for consumers.

“The only difference now is that we no longer have supply fears; there is availability of products. But in terms of pricing, I would say the naira-for-crude policy has not translated into lower prices at the depot or pump,” he added.

Jeremiah attributed this to the continued reliance on international pricing benchmarks, even for locally supplied crude.

“Dangote’s crude from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company is still priced internationally and benchmarked to Brent. So it is not as effective as the name implies. The refinery still has to pay based on international prices when converted,” he said.

He argued that to achieve meaningful price stability, the government may need to rethink its approach.

“For me, I feel that the subsidy removal in 2023 should be replaced with another form of subsidy, but this time targeted at refineries. The crude supplied to local refineries should be subsidised. That is the only way prices can be stabilised and Nigerians will feel the impact at the pump,” he stated.

He added that the current arrangement contradicts provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, which prioritises domestic crude supply.

“The agreement should be revisited. The policy is not effective, and Nigerians are not supposed to be buying fuel at high prices, considering that we have crude and a giant refinery. Local refineries should not struggle to access crude at all,” he said.

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Similarly, a Professor of Energy, Dayo Ayoade, said structural issues in Nigeria’s upstream sector have made it difficult for policies like naira-for-crude to succeed in practice.

“We have deeply unreliable supply from NNPC, largely because the company forward-sold crude oil to secure loans for the government in the past,” he said.

“Also, for over 19 years while the Petroleum Industry Bill was being delayed, there was significant underinvestment in the upstream sector. When you combine this with government’s priority of earning foreign exchange and servicing debts, you will see that, in practice, initiatives like naira-for-crude are more on paper than reality.”

He explained that Nigeria’s current production levels are insufficient to meet both export obligations and domestic refining demand.

“NNPC must have crude oil that it can supply, but it doesn’t. By the time international oil companies take their allocations under joint ventures and production sharing contracts, very little is left,” he said.

“Take the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote refinery, for instance. It would require about 650,000 barrels daily to operate at full capacity. That is not feasible at the moment. That crude simply does not exist in available volumes right now.”

Ayoade further noted that crude importation is built into the operational model of modern refineries.

“We also need to understand that the configuration of the refinery requires a blend of different crude grades. Nigeria’s light sweet crude alone is not sufficient, so some level of importation is part of the refinery’s design and business plan,” he said.

On the outlook for 2026, he warned that the trend of crude importation by domestic refineries is likely to persist.

“This pattern will likely will continue in 2026 because issues like logistics bottlenecks, pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and delayed field development cannot be solved in a short time,” he said.

“As long as crude oil accounts for over 95 per cent of our foreign exchange earnings and the government prioritises exports, we will continue to see this pattern for a few more years.”

He added, “That is why I am always cautious when people talk about new refineries coming on stream. The real question is: where will the crude oil come from? That is the fundamental issue.”

Nigeria has long relied on imported refined petroleum products due to inadequate domestic refining capacity. However, recent investments in local refineries were expected to reverse this trend by boosting in-country processing of crude oil.

The Petroleum Industry Act introduced provisions aimed at ensuring a steady supply of crude to domestic refineries, including domestic crude supply obligations.

However, implementation challenges, legacy contractual commitments, and market realities have slowed progress, leaving refiners to navigate supply gaps through imports.

The N5.734tn crude import bill in 2025 now highlights a new phase in Nigeria’s oil sector paradox, where the challenge is no longer just refining capacity, but access to crude itself.

As the country pushes to maximise value from its hydrocarbon resources, the ability to align upstream production with downstream demand will remain critical to achieving true energy independence.

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FG unveils ‘fly now, pay later’ credit scheme for domestic flights

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The Federal Government has introduced a new consumer credit product, “Fly Now, Pay Later,” aimed at making domestic air travel more accessible to Nigerians.

The Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation disclosed this in an announcement posted on its X handle on Tuesday, stating that the initiative would allow eligible customers to book local flights and repay the cost over time through structured financing.

According to CREDICORP, the scheme is designed to remove the upfront financial barrier that often delays important trips for many Nigerians.

“Through this initiative, eligible customers can book domestic flights today and repay the cost over time through structured financing, removing the upfront barrier that often delays important trips,” the statement read.

CREDICORP said the solution is being delivered in partnership with MyVisaro and Alert Microfinance Bank as part of efforts to expand access to responsible consumer credit.

To apply, the corporation urged interested individuals to visit visaro.ng and book a flight to any city in Nigeria.

 

FG unveils ‘fly now, pay later’ credit scheme for domestic flights

“At CREDICORP, we remain committed to expanding responsible consumer credit and enabling Nigerians live better now, including flying locally. Fly now. Pay later. Opportunity shouldn’t wait,” it added.

The corporation noted that the initiative aligns with its broader mandate to promote financial inclusion and improve access to essential services through innovative credit solutions.

The launch comes amid growing concerns over the rising cost of domestic air travel in Nigeria, with many citizens facing affordability challenges despite increasing demand for intra-country connectivity.

During the 2025 Yuletide period, one-way fares on some domestic routes rose by about.

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Airlines have attributed the high ticket prices to the rising cost of aviation fuel, foreign exchange constraints, and other operational expenses.

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