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Buhari’s voting bloc falls apart as followers pitch tents

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The passing of former President Muhammadu Buhari has created a vacuum in the All Progressives Congress, sparking concerns about how the party or other political parties will inherit the ex-leader’s millions of voters in the North in the coming election, ISMAEEL UTHMAN and MUHAMMED LAWAL write

With the departure of former President Muhammadu Buhari, who had cult-like following and controlled millions of votes in the northern part of the country, the All Progressives Congress, which was the party of the former president, stands at the threshold of losing a reasonable percentage of Buhari’s supporters. Before his death, many of Buhari’s loyalists, including former ministers who served with him and former governors, had distanced themselves from the APC. This is as the Congress for Progressive Change bloc of the party was also reported to be planning defection.

While the APC is the original benefactor of Buhari’s popularity, the opposition parties are also hoping to profit from the “12 million votes” of the ex-president after his death.

Buhari, who contested five presidential elections between 2003 and 2019, lost three times before finally clinching victory in 2015 and securing re-election in 2019.

In the 2003 presidential election, Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party polled 12,710,022 votes but received 6,605,299 votes in 2007. The ex-president, who contested under the Congress for Progressive Change in 2011, garnered 12,214,853 votes. However, he won his election in 2015 under the APC, polling 15,424,921 and 15,191,847 votes for his re-election in 2019. He consistently won Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Kaduna, Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Gombe and Niger in all the elections to maintain his magical 12 million votes.

In a recent interview, a former Secretary to the State Government, Babachir Lawal, argued that the emergence of the APC only added three million votes to Buhari’s election in 2015, suggesting that the late president had his 12 million votes intact.

Similarly, a civil liberty advocate, Senator Shehu Sani, in an interview with Sunday PUNCH, also said the majority of the northern people considered Buhari a messiah, hence they consistently voted for him and considered anybody opposing him as being against northern interests.

He said, “Buhari’s support is different from the kind of support other politicians have in the North today. His support is a kind of cult following. When Buhari was a presidential candidate, any other northerner vying for that position was seen to be a devil. When Buhari was the president, any person criticising him was seen to be anti-North or anti-Buhari. At the peak of his popularity, Buhari became like a deity, and criticising him was viewed by the common people as a form of blasphemy.”

A former military Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar (retd.), acknowledged Buhari’s strong political base, saying, “With the passing away of Buhari, politics in Nigeria will certainly change — I hope for the better.”

However, the shepherd is now dead and the sheep are scattered. The development has brought about an imminent power struggle, as political forces across party lines are already positioning themselves as Buhari’s true friends, allies, and supporters so that the ex-general’s followers will identify with them during election time.

Before his death, both the APC and the opposition coalition led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar were battling for the ex-general’s support ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Political analysts argue that a key strategy for the APC to control Buhari’s followers is to retain the CPC bloc of the party, though some of them have joined the African Democratic Congress.

According to the analysts, leaders of the defunct CPC were seen by thousands of northern voters as Buhari’s disciples; hence, they may tend to follow them during elections. Sunday PUNCH notes that notable members of the defunct CPC who are still in the APC include former Senate President Ahmed Lawan, ex-governors of Nasarawa and Katsina states, Tanko Al-Makura and Aminu Masari, former Minister of Education Adamu Adamu, and ex-member of the House of Representatives, Farouk Aliyu, among others.

But many of the old CPC members who served with Buhari have left the APC. Leading the team are the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal; former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami; and immediate past governor of Kaduna, Nasir El-Rufai. The late president’s ex-ministers, Rotimi Amaechi and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, who were not part of the CPC bloc, have also joined the ADC.

Sunday PUNCH learnt that tensions have begun to surface between the APC and the ADC, with both parties vying to attract Buhari’s political base. Sources told our correspondents that the APC was already worried about Buhari’s demise and how it is going to impact Tinubu’s election in 2027.

Of the 8,794,726 votes Tinubu got in the 2023 presidential election, 5,346,686 came from the northern region. His close rival, Atiku, polled 5,229,473 in the North. Tinubu won six northern states of Jigawa, Zamfara, Kogi, Niger, Benue and Borno. Political analysts argue that with Buhari’s demise, APC might find it difficult to mobilise voters, especially in the face of the purported resentment against the Tinubu’s administration in the region.

An insider at the APC national secretariat who spoke with one of our correspondents stated that the party leaders’ major worry was how not to lose “too much” of Buhari’s followers to the coalition.

“It is a discussion among the leaders. Before the secretariat was shut, the implication of Buhari’s death was a major discourse. Even till now, our major concern is how not to lose too much of the ex-president’s followers to the coalition.”

But the Chairman of the North-Central APC Forum, Saleh Zazzaga, allayed the fear, saying there had not been “proper election” when Buhari was polling 12 million votes, suggesting that the former president might receive fewer votes if he contested now.

“The time that President Buhari secured 12 million votes, there had not been a proper election. In the past elections, the margin of the winner was usually eight million votes. President Tinubu did not win by this margin because there was an election.

“Those that have the capacity are with the APC, and they are going nowhere. Someone like Al-Makura, who is the current leader of the CPC bloc, is with President Tinubu, and he is going to add value to the 2027 journey,” he said in an interview with Sunday PUNCH.

Also commenting on Buhari’s political influence, the President of Arewa Youth Consultative Council, Zaid Ayuba, said the late president’s votes could become extinct, as politics was measured by presence.

He noted that when there was no clear direction, people tended to follow their own interests.

Ayuba said, “Politics is a game of interest. When one is alive, they play politics; immediately one is no more, the interest will always be divided. The 12 million votes belonging to the late president can no longer be controlled.

“Even if he were alive, those 12 million votes could not be channelled in one direction. This is because people are now politically aware. The level of political socialisation in the North has grown beyond how it is perceived. People align with what suits their interests. This means that loyalty and likeness are submitted to anybody they relate with.”

While acknowledging that the North was a staunch supporter of Buhari, Ayuba noted that the people felt betrayed by his performance, which he said put an end to the purported millions of votes the ex-general was controlling.

“Buhari enjoyed massive solidarity from the North in the past, where people saw him as a messiah. In 2019, some people felt he underdelivered, and from that moment, their entire perception changed. This made the 12 million votes a past glory. Currently, no man or politician can puff their chest and say they can deliver this number of votes.

“Northern Nigeria may decide to submit their bloc votes to wherever they feel, especially if the appeal is in relation to regional solidarity. By 2027, a lot of preaching will happen in the North, and people will begin to come out,” he stated.

Asked whether Al-Makura could gather enough support for Tinubu if picked as the APC’s next national chairman, Ayuba said the former Nasarawa State governor did not have Buhari’s political influence in the North.

According to him, Al-Makura was only known in two states in the North.

He said, “If Al-Makura emerges as the National Chairman of the APC, his influence remains in Nasarawa State and Abuja. The moment one crosses these two places, nobody knows him, especially political players, let alone voters. Only Buhari enjoyed the massive political solidarity.

“People were usually surprised whenever he was on the ballot, asking where votes were coming from. Now that he is no longer alive, politically, things have fallen apart. The centre has broken, and there is nobody in the North that can boast of three to four million votes again. There is nobody that can shake the political reign of this region like the late president.”

Similarly, Sani said Tinubu would win his second term in the North despite Buhari’s death. According to him, Tinubu has no strong opposition to his re-election in the region.

“I have no doubt that President Tinubu will win his 2027 election. Because I have not seen any credible, strong, and viable opposition that can counter his support base in northern Nigeria,” he said.

When contacted to comment on how Buhari’s death would impact the 2027 presidential election in the North, a former minister and one of the leaders of the ADC said he couldn’t speak on record because some people would believe he was disrespecting Buhari in death.

The ex-minister, who is one of Buhari’s loyalists, said, “I cannot speak on record because we are still mourning our late principal. If I grant any interview now, many of our people will think I am disrespecting Baba in his grave.

However, his death is a huge loss to us, but we believe thousands, if not millions, of those who usually voted for him identify us as his disciples, and we will not disappoint them. We will galvanise Baba’s followers and ensure that they make the right choice in 2027.”

He promised that all the political structures of the late president would be maintained.

“Truly, Baba has gone with his 12 million votes and we cannot have that again. But the talakawas and other structures who always rallied round Baba will not be discarded; we will maintain them,” he said.

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Politics

Otti denies defecting to APC, affirms loyalty to LP

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Abia State Governor, Dr. Alex Otti, has refuted claims circulating on social media that he has left the Labour Party for the All Progressives Congress.

The clarification was contained in a statement issued by the state’s Commissioner for Information, Okey Kanu, on Monday.

Kanu dismissed the report as false, adding that it is the handiwork of political opponents unsettled by Otti’s growing popularity and record of performance.

He stressed that the governor remains a steadfast member of the Labour Party, describing the report as a “desperate attempt to distract Abians and create unnecessary confusion.”

He stated, “Governor Alex Otti remains a committed and proud member of the Labour Party, the platform under which the good people of Abia overwhelmingly elected him to serve. His focus remains unshaken, to rebuild Abia, restore accountability, and deliver the dividends of democracy to every citizen of the state.”

The commissioner recalled that during the October edition of ‘Governor Alex Otti Speaks to Abians’, the governor had reiterated his disinterest in political realignments or defections, stressing that his priority was governance, not politics.

“It is important to remind the public that only last week, during the October edition of ‘Governor Alex Otti Speaks to Abians,’ the Governor made it unequivocally clear that his interest is not in political permutations or defections, but in service to humanity and the transformation of Abia State. He reaffirmed that leadership, to him, is about impact, not political convenience,” he added.

Kanu highlighted that the Otti administration has maintained a clear policy direction built on transparency, fiscal responsibility, infrastructural development, economic expansion, youth empowerment, and renewed trust in government.

“These are values synonymous with the Labour Party’s ideals, values that the Governor will never compromise for any political expediency,” the statement added.

The commissioner urged residents to disregard the fake report, describing it as another round of cheap propaganda aimed at diverting attention from the progress being made across the state.

“We wish to assure Abians that Governor Alex Otti remains resolute in his mission to continue to build a new Abia where truth, justice, and equity prevail under the banner of the Labour Party,” he stated.

Recall that Otti had in May emphasised that he does not need to join the APC to be close to President Bola Tinubu.

He noted that not everyone needs to join the ruling party.

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Kaduna ADC expels deputy chairman, eight others over misconduct

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The Kaduna State chapter of the African Democratic Congress has plunged into crisis following the expulsion of its Deputy Chairman, Ahmed Mustapha, and eight other top officials over alleged gross misconduct, insubordination, and attempts to usurp leadership positions within the party.

The sweeping decision, described by insiders as “a necessary purge to restore discipline,” was part of the resolutions reached by the State Executive Committee during an emergency meeting held in Kaduna on Wednesday.

Those affected by the expulsion include the State Publicity Secretary, Idris Musa; State Vice Chairman (Zone 1), Sulaiman Abdullahi; State Treasurer, Gambo Sani; State Financial Secretary, Magaji Maiwada; and State Legal Adviser, Danlami Dabai Musa. Others are the State Coordinator of Persons with Disabilities, Saura Muhammed; State Deputy Youth Leader, Ibrahim Muhammed; and one Mansur Gaga.

The embattled officials were accused of engaging in what the party described as “activities capable of undermining the unity, image, and lawful operation” of the ADC in Kaduna and the North-West zone.

According to the SEC’s resolution, the members allegedly held secret meetings to plot leadership changes, forged official documents, and extorted money from party members in violation of the ADC’s constitution.

Speaking at a press conference after the meeting, the Kaduna State ADC Chairman, Elder Patrick Ambut, said the party could no longer tolerate actions that threaten its internal cohesion.

He declared that the leadership in Kaduna remained “committed to discipline, transparency, and the rule of law,” adding that the expulsions followed due process as provided in the ADC constitution.

“As law-abiding members of the ADC, we are committed to upholding the party’s constitution and safeguarding its integrity. No individual, no matter his position, is above the law of the party,” Ambut said.

The chairman accused the Deputy Chairman, Mustapha, of abuse of office, impersonation, and acts capable of causing disharmony not only in Kaduna State but also across the North-West zone.

“These actions constitute a gross violation of the ADC constitution and are contrary to established party procedures,” Ambut said.

“The Deputy Chairman acted without due process, as he lacks the constitutional authority to convene any meeting or issue such directives on behalf of the party.”

Meanwhile, the party announced the appointment of the Deputy State Publicity Secretary, Alex Tagwai, as Acting Publicity Secretary pending further adjustments within the state executive.

Ambut said the decision was endorsed unanimously by the SEC, local government chairmen, and other stakeholders during the meeting.

“Mr. Tagwai will immediately assume responsibilities to ensure the smooth functioning of the publicity unit and prevent any communication gaps,” Ambut said.

He also urged members to remain calm and loyal to the constituted leadership, warning that further acts of indiscipline would not be tolerated.

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Politics

My re-election bid, a divine project -Soludo

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The Anambra State Governor,  Chukwuma Soludo, has described his second-term reelection bid as “a divine project and a mass movement” which ignites a sense of collective purpose and commitment to continued development in the state.

Soludo stated this in his address during a campaign rally in Onitsha South Local Government Area of the state, where he and his Deputy, Dr Onyekachukwu Ibezim, were received by a large crowd of supporters on Tuesday.

The governor said the gathering, filled with residents eager to show their backing, portrayed the growing momentum of his campaign.

He said, “My candidacy is a divine project and a mass movement which resonated deeply with the people and ignited a sense of collective purpose and commitment to continued development in the state.

“I express my heartfelt thanks to the community for their unwavering support. This is a campaign like no other in our history. I am humbled and deeply thankful, and I appreciate you.”

The governor outlined the progress his administration has made in all sectors of the state economy, especially in Onitsha South LGA, highlighting the establishment of a specialist general hospital in Fegge, the exceptional improvements made to public schools, among others.

He promised that many more advancements would follow if given the opportunity for a second term.

Several people also took the stage to voice their support, highlighting the achievements made under the Soludo-led administration.

Among them was the President General of Fegge, Onitsha, Okwudili Nwankwo, who praised the governor’s impact, adding, “Under Governor Soludo, we have seen remarkable changes, particularly with initiatives like the ‘One Youth, Two Skills’ programme. This has empowered many of our youth and provided them with valuable skills for a brighter future.”

Another resident, Chibuike Ugo, echoed this sentiment, stating, “Free education, free antenatal care and delivery services have made a significant difference in our community. These programs are not just policies; they are lifelines for our families.”

Another one, Franklin Onyeke added, “As we pray for Governor Soludo’s victory on November 8, 2025, we remain steadfast in our belief that he will continue to lead Anambra towards greatness.”

A cheque donation of N20 million was also made to support the governor’s campaign.

Soludo, the candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, is contesting the governorship election alongside 16 other candidates from other political parties on November 8, 2025.

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