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Buhari’s voting bloc falls apart as followers pitch tents

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The passing of former President Muhammadu Buhari has created a vacuum in the All Progressives Congress, sparking concerns about how the party or other political parties will inherit the ex-leader’s millions of voters in the North in the coming election, ISMAEEL UTHMAN and MUHAMMED LAWAL write

With the departure of former President Muhammadu Buhari, who had cult-like following and controlled millions of votes in the northern part of the country, the All Progressives Congress, which was the party of the former president, stands at the threshold of losing a reasonable percentage of Buhari’s supporters. Before his death, many of Buhari’s loyalists, including former ministers who served with him and former governors, had distanced themselves from the APC. This is as the Congress for Progressive Change bloc of the party was also reported to be planning defection.

While the APC is the original benefactor of Buhari’s popularity, the opposition parties are also hoping to profit from the “12 million votes” of the ex-president after his death.

Buhari, who contested five presidential elections between 2003 and 2019, lost three times before finally clinching victory in 2015 and securing re-election in 2019.

In the 2003 presidential election, Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party polled 12,710,022 votes but received 6,605,299 votes in 2007. The ex-president, who contested under the Congress for Progressive Change in 2011, garnered 12,214,853 votes. However, he won his election in 2015 under the APC, polling 15,424,921 and 15,191,847 votes for his re-election in 2019. He consistently won Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Kaduna, Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Gombe and Niger in all the elections to maintain his magical 12 million votes.

In a recent interview, a former Secretary to the State Government, Babachir Lawal, argued that the emergence of the APC only added three million votes to Buhari’s election in 2015, suggesting that the late president had his 12 million votes intact.

Similarly, a civil liberty advocate, Senator Shehu Sani, in an interview with Sunday PUNCH, also said the majority of the northern people considered Buhari a messiah, hence they consistently voted for him and considered anybody opposing him as being against northern interests.

He said, “Buhari’s support is different from the kind of support other politicians have in the North today. His support is a kind of cult following. When Buhari was a presidential candidate, any other northerner vying for that position was seen to be a devil. When Buhari was the president, any person criticising him was seen to be anti-North or anti-Buhari. At the peak of his popularity, Buhari became like a deity, and criticising him was viewed by the common people as a form of blasphemy.”

A former military Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar (retd.), acknowledged Buhari’s strong political base, saying, “With the passing away of Buhari, politics in Nigeria will certainly change — I hope for the better.”

However, the shepherd is now dead and the sheep are scattered. The development has brought about an imminent power struggle, as political forces across party lines are already positioning themselves as Buhari’s true friends, allies, and supporters so that the ex-general’s followers will identify with them during election time.

Before his death, both the APC and the opposition coalition led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar were battling for the ex-general’s support ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Political analysts argue that a key strategy for the APC to control Buhari’s followers is to retain the CPC bloc of the party, though some of them have joined the African Democratic Congress.

According to the analysts, leaders of the defunct CPC were seen by thousands of northern voters as Buhari’s disciples; hence, they may tend to follow them during elections. Sunday PUNCH notes that notable members of the defunct CPC who are still in the APC include former Senate President Ahmed Lawan, ex-governors of Nasarawa and Katsina states, Tanko Al-Makura and Aminu Masari, former Minister of Education Adamu Adamu, and ex-member of the House of Representatives, Farouk Aliyu, among others.

But many of the old CPC members who served with Buhari have left the APC. Leading the team are the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal; former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami; and immediate past governor of Kaduna, Nasir El-Rufai. The late president’s ex-ministers, Rotimi Amaechi and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, who were not part of the CPC bloc, have also joined the ADC.

Sunday PUNCH learnt that tensions have begun to surface between the APC and the ADC, with both parties vying to attract Buhari’s political base. Sources told our correspondents that the APC was already worried about Buhari’s demise and how it is going to impact Tinubu’s election in 2027.

Of the 8,794,726 votes Tinubu got in the 2023 presidential election, 5,346,686 came from the northern region. His close rival, Atiku, polled 5,229,473 in the North. Tinubu won six northern states of Jigawa, Zamfara, Kogi, Niger, Benue and Borno. Political analysts argue that with Buhari’s demise, APC might find it difficult to mobilise voters, especially in the face of the purported resentment against the Tinubu’s administration in the region.

An insider at the APC national secretariat who spoke with one of our correspondents stated that the party leaders’ major worry was how not to lose “too much” of Buhari’s followers to the coalition.

“It is a discussion among the leaders. Before the secretariat was shut, the implication of Buhari’s death was a major discourse. Even till now, our major concern is how not to lose too much of the ex-president’s followers to the coalition.”

But the Chairman of the North-Central APC Forum, Saleh Zazzaga, allayed the fear, saying there had not been “proper election” when Buhari was polling 12 million votes, suggesting that the former president might receive fewer votes if he contested now.

“The time that President Buhari secured 12 million votes, there had not been a proper election. In the past elections, the margin of the winner was usually eight million votes. President Tinubu did not win by this margin because there was an election.

“Those that have the capacity are with the APC, and they are going nowhere. Someone like Al-Makura, who is the current leader of the CPC bloc, is with President Tinubu, and he is going to add value to the 2027 journey,” he said in an interview with Sunday PUNCH.

Also commenting on Buhari’s political influence, the President of Arewa Youth Consultative Council, Zaid Ayuba, said the late president’s votes could become extinct, as politics was measured by presence.

He noted that when there was no clear direction, people tended to follow their own interests.

Ayuba said, “Politics is a game of interest. When one is alive, they play politics; immediately one is no more, the interest will always be divided. The 12 million votes belonging to the late president can no longer be controlled.

“Even if he were alive, those 12 million votes could not be channelled in one direction. This is because people are now politically aware. The level of political socialisation in the North has grown beyond how it is perceived. People align with what suits their interests. This means that loyalty and likeness are submitted to anybody they relate with.”

While acknowledging that the North was a staunch supporter of Buhari, Ayuba noted that the people felt betrayed by his performance, which he said put an end to the purported millions of votes the ex-general was controlling.

“Buhari enjoyed massive solidarity from the North in the past, where people saw him as a messiah. In 2019, some people felt he underdelivered, and from that moment, their entire perception changed. This made the 12 million votes a past glory. Currently, no man or politician can puff their chest and say they can deliver this number of votes.

“Northern Nigeria may decide to submit their bloc votes to wherever they feel, especially if the appeal is in relation to regional solidarity. By 2027, a lot of preaching will happen in the North, and people will begin to come out,” he stated.

Asked whether Al-Makura could gather enough support for Tinubu if picked as the APC’s next national chairman, Ayuba said the former Nasarawa State governor did not have Buhari’s political influence in the North.

According to him, Al-Makura was only known in two states in the North.

He said, “If Al-Makura emerges as the National Chairman of the APC, his influence remains in Nasarawa State and Abuja. The moment one crosses these two places, nobody knows him, especially political players, let alone voters. Only Buhari enjoyed the massive political solidarity.

“People were usually surprised whenever he was on the ballot, asking where votes were coming from. Now that he is no longer alive, politically, things have fallen apart. The centre has broken, and there is nobody in the North that can boast of three to four million votes again. There is nobody that can shake the political reign of this region like the late president.”

Similarly, Sani said Tinubu would win his second term in the North despite Buhari’s death. According to him, Tinubu has no strong opposition to his re-election in the region.

“I have no doubt that President Tinubu will win his 2027 election. Because I have not seen any credible, strong, and viable opposition that can counter his support base in northern Nigeria,” he said.

When contacted to comment on how Buhari’s death would impact the 2027 presidential election in the North, a former minister and one of the leaders of the ADC said he couldn’t speak on record because some people would believe he was disrespecting Buhari in death.

The ex-minister, who is one of Buhari’s loyalists, said, “I cannot speak on record because we are still mourning our late principal. If I grant any interview now, many of our people will think I am disrespecting Baba in his grave.

However, his death is a huge loss to us, but we believe thousands, if not millions, of those who usually voted for him identify us as his disciples, and we will not disappoint them. We will galvanise Baba’s followers and ensure that they make the right choice in 2027.”

He promised that all the political structures of the late president would be maintained.

“Truly, Baba has gone with his 12 million votes and we cannot have that again. But the talakawas and other structures who always rallied round Baba will not be discarded; we will maintain them,” he said.

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INEC Issues Certificates of Return to Soludo And Deputy

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The certificates were handed over by Kenneth Ikeagu, Supervising INEC National Commissioner for Anambra State, in Awka.

Anambra State Governor, Chukwuma Soludo, and his deputy, Onyekachukwu Ibezim have been issued certificates of return, confirming their re-election.

The certificates were issued by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Tuesday.

The certificates were handed over by Kenneth Ikeagu, Supervising INEC National Commissioner for Anambra State, in Awka, two days after Soludo and Ibezim were declared winners of the November 8 governorship election.

Speaking during the presentation, Ikeagu said, “Section 72(1) of the Electoral Act 2022 mandates INEC to issue a certificate of return within 14 days to every candidate duly returned by the returning officer. In compliance with this provision, it is my honour to present the certificates of return to the Governor and Deputy Governor-elect, who emerged victorious in the election.”

Soludo, candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), defeated his closest rival, Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who scored 99,445 votes. Paul Chukwuma of the Young Progressives Party (YPP) placed third with 37,753 votes.

The returning officer, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Benin, Edoba Omoregie, announced that Soludo polled 422,664 votes, winning all 21 local government areas in a landslide.

INEC noted that 16 candidates from 16 political parties contested the election. Out of 2,788,864 registered voters, 598,229 were accredited, with 595,298 votes cast and 11,244 rejected.

Soludo and Ibezim were accompanied to the INEC headquarters by their wives during the certificate presentation.

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Wike bloc petitions NJC, Oyo judge adjourns suit on PDP Convention

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The leadership crisis rocking the Peoples Democratic Party took a fresh twist on Monday as a faction loyal to Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, petitioned the National Judicial Council against Justice Ladiran Akintola of the Oyo State High Court.

The petition challenges an ex parte order permitting the party to hold its national convention in Ibadan on November 15 and 16, 2025.

The petitioners accused Justice Akintola of judicial misconduct, arguing that his order contradicted an earlier judgment by the Federal High Court, Abuja, which had restrained the PDP from holding the convention.

Justice James Omotosho of the Abuja court had, two weeks ago, barred the party from proceeding with the convention, citing non-compliance with internal procedures for notifying the Independent National Electoral Commission.

However, Justice Akintola granted a countermanding order, granting the party leave to hold the convention in Ibadan.

The conflicting rulings have deepened divisions within the party, with suspended National Secretary, Samuel Anyanwu ,leading a faction aligned with Wike, while acting National Chairman Umar Damagum heads the opposing camp.

In a petition dated November 5, 2025, and received by the Office of the Chief Justice of Nigeria on November 6, Austine Nwachukwu, Amah Nnanna, and Turnah George described Justice Akintola’s action as “judicial recklessness, impunity, and a flagrant violation of established legal processes.”

Addressing journalists in Abuja, the Imo State PDP Chairman, Nwachukwu,  appeared alongside his Abia State counterpart,  Nnanna, while George was absent.

The petitioners alleged that Justice Akintola’s ex parte order, issued on November 4, 2025, authorising the PDP to proceed with its convention on November 15 and 16 in Ibadan, directly conflicted with the Federal High Court’s order of October 31, 2025 in Suit No. FHC/ABJ/CS/2120/2025.

“This disturbing development not only undermines the integrity of the judiciary but risks setting a dangerous precedent that could erode public confidence in the justice system,” Nwachukwu said.

He called on the NJC to investigate the matter and take appropriate disciplinary action, warning that failure to act could embolden judicial officers who operate outside established legal boundaries.

“The NJC must reaffirm its commitment to discipline, impartiality, and the preservation of judicial integrity by ensuring that errant judicial officers are held accountable without delay,” the petitioners added.

They referenced similar swift disciplinary actions in Rivers, Imo, and other states, urging the NJC to apply the same standard in this case.

Meanwhile, Justice Akintola on Monday adjourned hearing on the Motion on Notice in a suit filed by Folahan Adelabi against the PDP, its acting National Chairman, Damagum, and others until Wednesday, November 12.

Last week, Justice Akintola had ruled on an ex parte application directing the PDP to proceed with its scheduled national convention while setting November 10, 2025, for the hearing of the Motion on Notice.

The plaintiff in the suit, Adelabi, is seeking an order restraining the defendants — including Damagum; Adamawa State Governor, Ahmadu Fintiri (representing the National Convention Organising Committee); and INEC — from truncating or frustrating the party’s convention.

After listening to counsel on Monday, Justice Akintola urged all parties to file outstanding processes to ensure smooth hearing and directed PDP leadership to strictly comply with the guidelines, timetable, and schedule of activities previously released for the convention.

He then adjourned the matter to Wednesday to address all pending applications.

Journalists were barred from entering the courtroom as security operatives mounted a blockade at the entrance.

The ruling highlights the deepening leadership crisis within the PDP, now split between opposing legal directives.

Justice Akintola’s position sharply contrasts with the Federal High Court, Abuja, which had restrained the party from holding the convention until compliance with the PDP constitution, the Nigerian Constitution, and the Electoral Act is ensured.

In suit number FHC/ABJ/CS/2120/2025, Justice Omotosho had directed the PDP to issue the statutory 21-day notice to INEC before proceeding with the convention and restrained the commission from recognising any convention not conducted in accordance with due process and INEC regulations.

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Amaechi reveals how Tinubu can be defeated in 2027

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A former governor of Rivers State and chieftain of the opposition coalition, African Democratic Congress, Rotimi Amaechi, has urged Nigerians to prepare to vote massively in 2027 to ensure that President Bola Tinubu is defeated.

According to Amaechi, who in August declared his interest to contest for President in 2027, the fact that Tinubu was defeated in Lagos State in 2023 showed that he is not invincible.

Amaechi, alongside a former governor of Bayelsa State, Seriake Dickson, spoke at the fifth anniversary lecture of First Daily newspaper held in Abuja on Monday.

The theme of the event was ‘2027: How can we make our votes count?’

In his goodwill message, Amaechi cautioned that voter apathy and complacency allow electoral malpractice to thrive, saying Nigerians must participate in the next elections to prevent President Tinubu from getting second term.

He said, “The first solution to electoral reform is not the government. The people are the problem. The more you say they have written the results, the more you have voter apathy. Voter apathy will make President Bola Tinubu return to Villa.”

Amaechi urged citizens to take control of the process, saying, “Tell the people the power is in your hands. Come out. If Tinubu is that invincible, how was he defeated in Lagos?

It can be repeated but first and foremost you must agree that the man there is not invincible. The problem is the opposition.”

He added that it is unrealistic to expect a government in power to undertake an electoral reform.

“The problem with election in Nigeria is that there is no incumbent government that can achieve electoral reform. None. We already tried it and failed,” he said.

Amaechi alleged that vested interests within the political class often frustrate reform efforts.

The former Minister of Transportation also blamed opposition parties for not developing viable strategies, noting that internal division and lack of focus weaken their ability to challenge the ruling elite.

“I tell the opposition parties that you’re the problem. The opposition party is not discussing how to save Nigeria. Nobody is saying oh things are bad, how do we change the candidate,” he said.

Earlier, Dickson, who chaired the event, condemned what he described as the subversion of the people’s sovereignty through rigged elections, calling it “the worst coup” against democracy.

“We have a long way to go as far as protecting the sovereignty that our constitution says belongs to the people because the only time Nigerians express that sovereignty that the constitution rightly says is theirs is during elections.

“Rigging of elections is the worst coup you can plan,” the ex-governor explained.

Speaking further, the senator representing Bayelsa West condemned the manipulation of election results by politicians and government officials.

He said, “A worst form of violation of the sovereignty of the people is when politicians, governments, security agencies and the electoral umpire itself colludes and then cook election results that have no reference whatsoever to the people.

“In other words, the people don’t even vote but votes are written and ascribed to them and then people say go to court now.

“As far as I’m concerned, anyone who has planned that, anyone who has carried that out, those are the real coup plotters because that is a coup against democracy, against the country, in the sovereignty of the people.”

The former Bayelsa governor said he witnessed electoral manipulation during his time in office.

“I was governor in an opposition and fought a lot of battles to keep my state in opposition and I saw all of this. What the average Nigerian politician who calls election planning, my dear friends and fellow Nigerians, if we’re honest, it’s conspiracy to commit crimes,” he said.

He urged the National Assembly to strengthen electoral laws to prevent result falsification and preserve the people’s will.

The Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, Dr. Sam Amadi , delivered a criticism of the nation’s electoral system during his keynote address, condemning what he described as a growing entanglement between election management and political power.

Amadi argued that the current situation had produced a political environment in which “everyone who has something to do with the management of electoral election is connected to the President.”

He lamented that the long-standing practice of appointing neutral and independent election officials has effectively been abandoned.

“Our elections are always rigged in one form or another,” he said, pointing to systemic drivers, such as high campaign costs, the enormous rewards of office and a political economy that turns elections into “warfare”.

That combination, he said, deepens civic cynicism and depresses turnout, even when citizens see the stakes are national survival.

“Free and fair election is the only way a divided, poor society can have peaceful transition,” the director said.

The speaker ended with a practical call to action, urging focused civic pressure on institutions and actors who can change outcomes.

He singled out INEC for reform.

“INEC must be opened to scrutiny,” he said, blaming both political parties and complicit lawyers and judges for enabling rigging.

The publisher of First Daily, Daniel Markson, in his welcome remarks, lamented Nigeria’s negative global reputation, stating, “There is a leadership issue in this country. I know there are leaders here. I am not particularly pointing fingers at any of you, but let’s tell ourselves the honest truth: we have failed. We have failed.

“I am 55 years old. I can’t remember any time Nigeria worked for me, as sad as it is. Yes, I can’t remember any time Nigeria worked for me and I doubt whether I would live to see that day when Nigeria will work for me.”

Markson attributed the country’s leadership crisis to flawed elections.

He announced that First Daily would embark on a nationwide voter sensitization campaign next year.

Nigeria’s struggle to achieve credible elections has been a recurring challenge since the return to civilian rule in 1999.

Despite a series of reforms, including the introduction of the Smart Card Reader in 2015 and the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System in 2023, allegations of vote-buying, intimidation, and result manipulation have persisted.

The 2023 general elections, which brought President Bola Tinubu to power, were marred by technical glitches, logistical failures, and accusations of bias against the Independent National Electoral Commission.

These controversies have eroded public trust, with many Nigerians questioning whether their votes truly count—an issue that continues to define political discourse ahead of the 2027 polls.

The event brought together political figures, diplomats, and media executives who discussed the future of Nigeria’s democracy and the urgent need to restore integrity to the nation’s electoral system.

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