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Buhari’s voting bloc falls apart as followers pitch tents

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The passing of former President Muhammadu Buhari has created a vacuum in the All Progressives Congress, sparking concerns about how the party or other political parties will inherit the ex-leader’s millions of voters in the North in the coming election, ISMAEEL UTHMAN and MUHAMMED LAWAL write

With the departure of former President Muhammadu Buhari, who had cult-like following and controlled millions of votes in the northern part of the country, the All Progressives Congress, which was the party of the former president, stands at the threshold of losing a reasonable percentage of Buhari’s supporters. Before his death, many of Buhari’s loyalists, including former ministers who served with him and former governors, had distanced themselves from the APC. This is as the Congress for Progressive Change bloc of the party was also reported to be planning defection.

While the APC is the original benefactor of Buhari’s popularity, the opposition parties are also hoping to profit from the “12 million votes” of the ex-president after his death.

Buhari, who contested five presidential elections between 2003 and 2019, lost three times before finally clinching victory in 2015 and securing re-election in 2019.

In the 2003 presidential election, Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party polled 12,710,022 votes but received 6,605,299 votes in 2007. The ex-president, who contested under the Congress for Progressive Change in 2011, garnered 12,214,853 votes. However, he won his election in 2015 under the APC, polling 15,424,921 and 15,191,847 votes for his re-election in 2019. He consistently won Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Kaduna, Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Gombe and Niger in all the elections to maintain his magical 12 million votes.

In a recent interview, a former Secretary to the State Government, Babachir Lawal, argued that the emergence of the APC only added three million votes to Buhari’s election in 2015, suggesting that the late president had his 12 million votes intact.

Similarly, a civil liberty advocate, Senator Shehu Sani, in an interview with Sunday PUNCH, also said the majority of the northern people considered Buhari a messiah, hence they consistently voted for him and considered anybody opposing him as being against northern interests.

He said, “Buhari’s support is different from the kind of support other politicians have in the North today. His support is a kind of cult following. When Buhari was a presidential candidate, any other northerner vying for that position was seen to be a devil. When Buhari was the president, any person criticising him was seen to be anti-North or anti-Buhari. At the peak of his popularity, Buhari became like a deity, and criticising him was viewed by the common people as a form of blasphemy.”

A former military Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar (retd.), acknowledged Buhari’s strong political base, saying, “With the passing away of Buhari, politics in Nigeria will certainly change — I hope for the better.”

However, the shepherd is now dead and the sheep are scattered. The development has brought about an imminent power struggle, as political forces across party lines are already positioning themselves as Buhari’s true friends, allies, and supporters so that the ex-general’s followers will identify with them during election time.

Before his death, both the APC and the opposition coalition led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar were battling for the ex-general’s support ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Political analysts argue that a key strategy for the APC to control Buhari’s followers is to retain the CPC bloc of the party, though some of them have joined the African Democratic Congress.

According to the analysts, leaders of the defunct CPC were seen by thousands of northern voters as Buhari’s disciples; hence, they may tend to follow them during elections. Sunday PUNCH notes that notable members of the defunct CPC who are still in the APC include former Senate President Ahmed Lawan, ex-governors of Nasarawa and Katsina states, Tanko Al-Makura and Aminu Masari, former Minister of Education Adamu Adamu, and ex-member of the House of Representatives, Farouk Aliyu, among others.

But many of the old CPC members who served with Buhari have left the APC. Leading the team are the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal; former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami; and immediate past governor of Kaduna, Nasir El-Rufai. The late president’s ex-ministers, Rotimi Amaechi and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, who were not part of the CPC bloc, have also joined the ADC.

Sunday PUNCH learnt that tensions have begun to surface between the APC and the ADC, with both parties vying to attract Buhari’s political base. Sources told our correspondents that the APC was already worried about Buhari’s demise and how it is going to impact Tinubu’s election in 2027.

Of the 8,794,726 votes Tinubu got in the 2023 presidential election, 5,346,686 came from the northern region. His close rival, Atiku, polled 5,229,473 in the North. Tinubu won six northern states of Jigawa, Zamfara, Kogi, Niger, Benue and Borno. Political analysts argue that with Buhari’s demise, APC might find it difficult to mobilise voters, especially in the face of the purported resentment against the Tinubu’s administration in the region.

An insider at the APC national secretariat who spoke with one of our correspondents stated that the party leaders’ major worry was how not to lose “too much” of Buhari’s followers to the coalition.

“It is a discussion among the leaders. Before the secretariat was shut, the implication of Buhari’s death was a major discourse. Even till now, our major concern is how not to lose too much of the ex-president’s followers to the coalition.”

But the Chairman of the North-Central APC Forum, Saleh Zazzaga, allayed the fear, saying there had not been “proper election” when Buhari was polling 12 million votes, suggesting that the former president might receive fewer votes if he contested now.

“The time that President Buhari secured 12 million votes, there had not been a proper election. In the past elections, the margin of the winner was usually eight million votes. President Tinubu did not win by this margin because there was an election.

“Those that have the capacity are with the APC, and they are going nowhere. Someone like Al-Makura, who is the current leader of the CPC bloc, is with President Tinubu, and he is going to add value to the 2027 journey,” he said in an interview with Sunday PUNCH.

Also commenting on Buhari’s political influence, the President of Arewa Youth Consultative Council, Zaid Ayuba, said the late president’s votes could become extinct, as politics was measured by presence.

He noted that when there was no clear direction, people tended to follow their own interests.

Ayuba said, “Politics is a game of interest. When one is alive, they play politics; immediately one is no more, the interest will always be divided. The 12 million votes belonging to the late president can no longer be controlled.

“Even if he were alive, those 12 million votes could not be channelled in one direction. This is because people are now politically aware. The level of political socialisation in the North has grown beyond how it is perceived. People align with what suits their interests. This means that loyalty and likeness are submitted to anybody they relate with.”

While acknowledging that the North was a staunch supporter of Buhari, Ayuba noted that the people felt betrayed by his performance, which he said put an end to the purported millions of votes the ex-general was controlling.

“Buhari enjoyed massive solidarity from the North in the past, where people saw him as a messiah. In 2019, some people felt he underdelivered, and from that moment, their entire perception changed. This made the 12 million votes a past glory. Currently, no man or politician can puff their chest and say they can deliver this number of votes.

“Northern Nigeria may decide to submit their bloc votes to wherever they feel, especially if the appeal is in relation to regional solidarity. By 2027, a lot of preaching will happen in the North, and people will begin to come out,” he stated.

Asked whether Al-Makura could gather enough support for Tinubu if picked as the APC’s next national chairman, Ayuba said the former Nasarawa State governor did not have Buhari’s political influence in the North.

According to him, Al-Makura was only known in two states in the North.

He said, “If Al-Makura emerges as the National Chairman of the APC, his influence remains in Nasarawa State and Abuja. The moment one crosses these two places, nobody knows him, especially political players, let alone voters. Only Buhari enjoyed the massive political solidarity.

“People were usually surprised whenever he was on the ballot, asking where votes were coming from. Now that he is no longer alive, politically, things have fallen apart. The centre has broken, and there is nobody in the North that can boast of three to four million votes again. There is nobody that can shake the political reign of this region like the late president.”

Similarly, Sani said Tinubu would win his second term in the North despite Buhari’s death. According to him, Tinubu has no strong opposition to his re-election in the region.

“I have no doubt that President Tinubu will win his 2027 election. Because I have not seen any credible, strong, and viable opposition that can counter his support base in northern Nigeria,” he said.

When contacted to comment on how Buhari’s death would impact the 2027 presidential election in the North, a former minister and one of the leaders of the ADC said he couldn’t speak on record because some people would believe he was disrespecting Buhari in death.

The ex-minister, who is one of Buhari’s loyalists, said, “I cannot speak on record because we are still mourning our late principal. If I grant any interview now, many of our people will think I am disrespecting Baba in his grave.

However, his death is a huge loss to us, but we believe thousands, if not millions, of those who usually voted for him identify us as his disciples, and we will not disappoint them. We will galvanise Baba’s followers and ensure that they make the right choice in 2027.”

He promised that all the political structures of the late president would be maintained.

“Truly, Baba has gone with his 12 million votes and we cannot have that again. But the talakawas and other structures who always rallied round Baba will not be discarded; we will maintain them,” he said.

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Politics

Tinubu will win 2027 with 15m votes—Ex-APC aspirant

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A former presidential aspirant of the All Progressives Congress, Nicolas Felix, has dismissed the newly formed opposition coalition under the African Democratic Congress as no threat to President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid.

Speaking in Suleja on Thursday during the distribution of thousands of litres of fuel to Nigerians, Felix expressed confidence that Tinubu would win the 2027 presidential election with no less than 15 million votes.

On July 1st, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate Peter Obi, APC’s 2023 presidential aspirant Rotimi Amaechi, and other opposition figures launched the ADC as a unified opposition platform to challenge President Tinubu in the 2027 election.

Reacting, Felix maintained that while there’s nothing wrong with opposition leaders forming a coalition, he believes they will eventually fall apart just as easily as they came together.

He said, “In a democracy, you must have opposition. We are not threatened. They are out there campaigning. So far, we have not heard anything they want to do anyway.

“So for us as a party, I don’t see any threat here. There is no threat in this coalition. We want them to coalesce. Like I said the other day, they will gather, but they will scatter because they have nothing to offer. Their intention is not pure. Their motive is not pure.

“As far as we are concerned and the APC, come 2027, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is going to have nothing less than 15 million votes. We know that is going to happen. So there is no threat from the ADC or whatever coalition. Let them come. When the time comes for campaigns, we are going to roll out the scorecard of Mr President.

“Didn’t you watch on TV this morning students on campuses singing, celebrating with joy, who just received the NELFund grant, over N100 billion, with no interest, by the way. I lived in America for 21 years; I had never heard that happen. Over N100 billion given to 600,000 students. So these 600,000 students, they will vote. Their families will vote because they know what it takes to go to school. So we are excited, and we know come 2027, it is going to be a walkover for us.”

He stated that his decision to regularly distribute free fuel to Nigerians is his way of supporting the president’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

The ex-presidential aspirant stated, “We are giving out free fuel to the community. As you know, this is our Renewed Hope season. We are just doing this to put smiles on the faces of the people.

“There is no other motivation, but we just want to give back to the community. We did this in 2023 in Edo State, and we did it here also, and we decided to come back here to make the people happy. As you can see, they are all smiling. We are giving them hope.

“This outreach is for everybody, but we know those who need it more. So, I am even more excited seeing the Okada riders because we believe, you know, I would be surprised if I see a G-Waggon here coming to take free fuel. This is more for the Okada and Keke riders. So anybody that comes, we will be able to, you know, just put smiles on their face. We are just giving back. That is what it is all about.”

Also speaking, APC Deputy National Women Leader Zainab Ibrahim stated that the party is pushing for sthe wift passage of the Special Seats Bill currently before the National Assembly, calling it a potential game changer for women in Nigeria.

She noted that, for the first time, the Ministry of Women Affairs has received over ₦100 billion in budgetary allocation to pursue its key goals and assured that Nigerian women will stand firmly behind the president in 2027.

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BREAKING: Dino Melaye resigns from PDP, cites party’s ‘lack of potency’

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Former Senator representing Kogi West, Dino Melaye, has formally resigned from the Peoples Democratic Party, citing the party’s inability to provide credible leadership and deliver good governance to Nigerians.

In a resignation letter shared on his official X account on Thursday, dated July 4, 2025, and addressed to the chairman of the PDP in Ward 1, Aiyetoro Gbede, Ijumu Local Government Area of Kogi State, Melaye announced his immediate withdrawal from all party activities.

“I hereby tender my resignation from the Peoples Democratic Party at all levels of involvement.

“This decision has become imperative due to the lack of potency and capacity by the party to deliver the Nigerian people from the prevailing political cankerworms that have eaten deeply into the fabric of our dear nation”, the letter partly read.

Melaye, who once served as the PDP’s candidate in the 2023 Kogi State governorship election, said his decision followed deep reflection on the party’s current state and trajectory.

“Having carefully reflected on the state of the party, I can no longer in good conscience participate in the activities of the parties or lend my support to her agenda”, the letter continued.

He further requested that his resignation be treated as a formal and total withdrawal from all party levels and structures.

“In view of the above, please consider this as my formal withdrawal from the party and all its activities at all levels with immediate effect”, the letter added.

In his closing remarks, Melaye expressed gratitude for the opportunity to serve under the party’s platform during his time as a member.

“Thank you for the opportunity to serve under the platform during my period of membership,” the letter concluded.

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Peter Obi would win northern states if he returns to PDP – Jerry Gana

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A founding member of the Peoples Democratic Party, Prof. Jerry Gana, has claimed that former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi would defeat any contender in Nigeria’s northern states if he contested on the PDP platform.

Speaking on Arise TV’s Prime Time on Wednesday, Gana said, “I’m a researcher, and I research opinions. In the northern states, Peter Obi under the PDP will defeat any candidate, because our people are very fair‑minded.”

Peter Obi quit the PDP in May 2022 to lead the Labour Party during the 2023 elections.

Reflecting on the PDP’s roots, the PDP Chieftain reminded Nigerians of the party’s grassroots strength and its pivotal role in restoring democratic governance.

He said, “I must confess that many people have forgotten that the PDP was created as a grassroots organisation. In 1998, we were formed and then, moving to the elections in 1999, we were in every polling unit, because we are the ones who really won the first election.

“Many people have forgotten that the PDP won most of the local governments. When it came to the presidential elections, we won the presidency, we won the Senate, and we won the House. We were totally in control, and that is why we were very delighted that we restored democracy to Nigeria and re‑established civil rule.

“Because for a number of years there was military rule, but we successfully terminated that in a very democratic way, so the PDP was really as it were, a grassroots party. That’s why when we said ‘power to the people’, we meant it because that was what it was, and it has been like that.”

On recent party conflicts, he downplayed their scale, saying, “So when this recent problem happened, it was really among a few elites here in Abuja. It didn’t even go beyond.”

Gana, who served in key roles during Nigeria’s transition to democracy, including Minister of Information and Cooperation from 1999–2003 under President Obasanjo, also hinted at equity in party zoning, adding, “In 2031, it will be the turn of the North. Our people are very fair, and we are building a nation.”

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