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N5.6tn debt: Energy crisis looms as gas firms cut supply

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Nigeria faces the threat of nationwide blackouts as gas companies reduce their supply to power plants due to an outstanding N5.6 trillion debt owed to power generation companies.

The development has raised concerns about the stability of the national grid and the country’s ability to sustain its electricity supply.

The Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the Association of Power Generation Companies, Dr Joy Ogaji, confirmed the development in an interview with The PUNCH on Thursday. She warned that the situation, if not urgently addressed, could push Nigeria deeper into darkness.

This warning came shortly after another national grid collapse threw the entire country into blackout earlier in the week. Although partial restoration has since brought back about 4,000 megawatts, many plants are still operating below capacity.

Ogaji explained that while GenCos remain committed to supporting the country, the liquidity crisis in the sector has spiralled out of control. She disclosed that from January to August 2025 alone, an additional N1.6tn debt had accumulated, bringing the total outstanding to N5.6tn.

She recalled that President Bola Tinubu had met with the GenCos on July 25 to discuss an estimated N4 trillion debt owed to them, covering legacy debts and unpaid invoices. At the meeting, Tinubu appealed for patience while the government completed the verification and validation of the claims. He also approved, in principle, a N4tn bond programme to address the liquidity gap in the sector.

“Almost two months after that meeting, there has been no follow-up engagement with the GenCos on how these debts will be settled,” Ogaji lamented.

She explained that about 60 per cent of GenCos’ revenues go to gas producers, meaning that the debt burden directly undermines gas supply. With suppliers already reducing deliveries, she warned, the electricity market could soon grind to a halt.

Ogaji stressed that despite the patriotic commitment of operators to keep the lights on, factors outside their control make it nearly impossible to sustain generation. She listed gas supply, maintenance of machines, procurement of spare parts, and obligations to other creditors as key challenges.

“Gas suppliers have already started reducing supply. There are critical maintenance works on our machines, spares to purchase, and other creditors who are no longer willing to wait for payments. They now prioritise those who pay them promptly,” she stated.

According to her, the prevailing market structure is incompatible with Nigeria’s growth ambitions. “No substantial private sector investment will flow into this sector unless urgent reforms are implemented. Only the Federal Government, in collaboration with NBET and NERC, can unlock these challenges,” she said.

The APGC boss revealed that GenCos’ monthly invoices average N270bn, but only about N70bn is paid, leaving N200bn outstanding every month. She faulted the 2025 federal budget, which earmarked N900bn for the power sector without cash backing, calling it grossly inadequate.

She also expressed concerns over the Federal Government’s plan to issue promissory notes to settle the debts. According to her, the details of such instruments remain unclear, raising apprehension among investors.

“Promissory notes and bond proposals go to the root of our contractual agreements in the market. We must understand the terms, conditions, and risks before committing,” she said.

Ogaji highlighted the risks of such instruments, including interest rate exposure, foreign exchange volatility, credit risk, and liquidity risk. She noted that promissory notes cannot be repurchased in the open market, which creates refinancing risks at maturity.

“GenCos will not make concessions that undermine our obligations to other creditors. Any breach of contractual terms by the government has a ripple effect on our finances and relationships with bankers and other partners,” she warned.

Ogaji urged the Federal Government, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, the Debt Management Office, and the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc to urgently engage GenCos on viable solutions. She questioned whether the proposed promissory notes would be exclusive to GenCos or open to other government contractors, which could dilute the chances of settlement for power producers.

“GenCos remain patriotic investors, but patriotism alone cannot run power plants. Without urgent action, Nigeria risks another round of prolonged blackouts,” she said.

Efforts to obtain the reaction of the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, were unsuccessful, as his spokesman, Bolaji Tunji, did not respond to calls or messages.

Meanwhile, the Transmission Company of Nigeria confirmed some recovery on the national grid, with power generation climbing to nearly 4,000 megawatts by Thursday. However, several power plants are yet to resume full output, underscoring the fragility of the system.

Industry stakeholders say that unless the Federal Government swiftly addresses the liquidity crisis and debt overhang, Nigeria’s electricity sector may face deeper collapse, with dire consequences for homes, businesses, and the overall economy.

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Reps to mediate in PENGASSAN, Dangote refinery dispute

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The House of Representatives on Tuesday resolved to intervene in the recent face-off between members of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria and the Dangote Refinery, which had disrupted petroleum product distribution nationwide.

The resolution of the House followed the consideration and adoption of a motion of urgent public importance co-sponsored by Kano and Sokoto lawmakers, Alhassan Doguwa and Abdussamad Dasuki, respectively, at Tuesday’s plenary.

Titled: “Need to protect private investment from adversarial unionism,” the lawmakers drew the attention of their colleagues to the significance of the Dangote Refinery, describing it as the largest private petroleum refinery in Africa.

The face-off between PENGASSAN and the Dangote Refinery led to an industrial action which commenced on September 29, 2025, disrupting the operations at the $20bn refinery.

It also led to a disruption in Nigeria’s crude oil production, with a reported daily loss of approximately 200,000 barrels over three days.

The disruption worsened the petroleum supply situation across the country, resulting in scarcity and long queues at filling stations in several states, resulting in severe hardship for millions of Nigerians.

Speaking on the motion, Doguwa, who represents Doguwa/Tudun Wada Federal Constituency, Kano State, stressed the need to protect the Dangote Refinery given its strategic significance to the nation’s economy.

He said, “The House is aware that the Dangote Refinery is a strategic private investment of immense national importance, with the potential to guarantee energy security, reduce import dependency, generate employment, and conserve foreign exchange.

“We are aware that the Dangote Refinery operates within a Free Trade Zone, and therefore falls under the regulatory framework of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority, particularly Section 18(5) of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Act which clearly states that ‘Employment in the free zone shall be governed by rules and regulations made by the Authority and not subject to the provisions of any enactments relating to employment matters.’

“The House is concerned that actions by labour unions that disregard the legal protections conferred on Free Zones under the NEPZA Act not only constitute a breach of law but also create a hostile investment environment that may deter future local and foreign investors;

“We are worried that if private investments of strategic national importance are continually subjected to unlawful disruptions by adversarial unionism, Nigeria risks not only the failure of key economic assets but also the erosion of investor confidence necessary for national growth and development.”

In his contribution, the member representing Chibok/Damboa/Gwoza Federal Constituency, Ahmad Jaha, urged the House to tread carefully, adding that the call for a probe as prayed by the motion was ill-timed.

Following the adoption of the motion, the House urged its leadership to broker peace between the two parties in the interest of the nation.

It also urged the Federal Ministries of Labour and Employment, Industry, Trade and Investment, as well as Justice, to “Jointly develop and implement a national framework or set of policies to safeguard private investments of strategic national importance from adversarial and unlawful union actions.”

It further charged the Federal Ministry of Justice and NEPZA to ensure full enforcement and compliance with the provisions of Section 18(5) of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Act in all relevant Free Zone operations.

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Debt dispute: Drama as Max Air pilot refuses to fly

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Drama unfolded at Maiduguri International Airport on Monday as over 100 Max Air’s passengers of were left stranded for hours due to a face-off between the airline’s pilots and management over unpaid debts.

The incident caused panic and confusion among travellers who had already boarded the aircraft and were awaiting departure.

According to an eyewitness who refused to give her name for fear of the unknown, the pilots refused to proceed with the flight, which the flight attendants blamed solely on the pilot’s unpaid entitlements.

This shocking development held the scheduled airline to ransom for some hours, sparking tension among the passengers, with the development forcing them to disembark in frustration after being informed of the dispute and refusal of the pilot to fly.

Another eyewitness who gave his name simply as Shola told The PUNCH that the pilots were protesting unresolved financial issues with the airline.

The traveller who was aboard the affected flight confirmed that boarding had been completed when the airline staff members suddenly instructed passengers to leave the aircraft and return to the terminal.

“We had all taken our seats and were waiting to take off when they asked us to disembark,” the source said.

According to the same source, passengers waited for several hours in uncertainty before the matter was eventually resolved.

“There was tension initially, but after some time, we were told the issue had been settled. We were later asked to re-board the aircraft,” the traveller said.

Confirming the development, the Director of Public Affairs and Consumer Protection at the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority, Michael Achimugu, confirmed the incident, adding that the dispute appeared to have been resolved amicably by both parties without regulatory intervention.

“The flight later departed around past 2:00 pm, which means the issue was resolved. Since it was an internal matter, and the aircraft eventually flew, we consider it closed.”

The NCAA spokesman said. “We typically don’t intervene in salary-related disputes unless a formal report is submitted.”

He further emphasised that while the NCAA regulates safety and operational standards, issues such as wage disputes between staff and management are typically handled internally by the airline unless safety is compromised.

Max Air’s Executive Director, Shehu Wada, also confirmed the development, describing it as a result of miscommunication.

“It is a communication gap issue, and it has been resolved. That is how I can describe it basically,” he said.

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Petrol tops Nigeria’s imports with 613.6m litres in one year

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Nigerians consumed a total of 613.62 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol, for transportation, power generation, and other domestic uses between October 2024 and October 10, 2025.

This is according to fresh data obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority obtained by our correspondent on Monday in Abuja.

Despite the ramp-up in operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other local plants, imported petrol still accounted for a larger share of the country’s total fuel supply during the period under review.

Out of the total 613.62 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit consumed between October 2024 and October 10, 2025, the NMDPRA data revealed that 236.08 million litres were supplied by domestic refineries, while 377.54 million litres came through imports.

The figures indicate that imported petrol still accounted for the bulk of Nigeria’s fuel needs within the period, with imports dominating supply, contributing about 63 per cent of Nigeria’s PMS needs.

While local refineries, led by the 650,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery, provided the remaining 37 per cent, marking a significant improvement from the previous year’s levels.

The NMDPRA data further indicated that domestic production rose steadily from 9.62 million litres per day in October 2024 to 18.93 million litres per day by October 2025, showing a near 100 per cent increase within the one-year period.

Conversely, import volumes declined sharply from 46.38 million litres per day in October 2024 to 15.11 million litres per day in October 2025, reflecting a 67 per cent drop.

A monthly breakdown of the data revealed a steady decline in petrol importation and a gradual rise in local supply. Import volumes dropped from 46.38 million litres in October 2024 to 36.39 million litres in November and 38.90 million litres in December.

By January 2025, import figures had fallen further to 24.15 million litres, and though there were slight fluctuations in subsequent months – 26.79 million litres in February, 25.19 million litres in March, and 23.73 million litres in April – imports rebounded temporarily to 37.37 million litres in May.

Thereafter, volumes declined again, with 28.54 million litres imported in June, 35.07 million litres in July, 20.66 million litres in August, 19.26 million litres in September, and a year-low of 15.11 million litres as of October 10, 2025.

In contrast, domestic refining output showed notable improvement within the same period, rising from 9.62 million litres in October 2024 to 19.36 million litres in November and 13.13 million litres in December.

The upward trend continued into 2025, with local supply climbing to 22.66 million litres in January and 22.42 million litres in February and maintaining over 20 million litres in both March (20.65 million litres) and April (20.35 million litres).

Though there were minor dips to 17.85 million litres in May, 17.82 million litres in June, and 16.50 million litres in July, output surged again to 21.19 million litres in August before stabilising at 18.93 million litres in October 2025.

The figures reflect a gradual but significant shift in Nigeria’s fuel supply structure, with local refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, steadily closing the gap on imports within just one year of operation.

The document further showed that total petrol supply averaged 46.6 million litres per day, comprising 29.5 million litres from imports and about 17.1 million litres from local production.

The reduction in petrol imports has also eased pressure on Nigeria’s foreign reserves, as the country spends less on importing refined products. Previously, importers required billions of dollars monthly to settle letters of credit and cover freight and insurance costs.

However, the report noted fluctuations in overall supply, with volumes dipping from 55.21 million litres in May 2025 to 34.04 million litres in October 2025, a sign that logistical constraints and periodic maintenance still affect consistent nationwide distribution.

Oil and gas analysts say the improvement coincides with the first full year of operations of the Dangote Refinery, which began large-scale production earlier in 2025 and now contributes between 15 and 20 million litres of PMS daily to the domestic market.

Since its commissioning in May 2023 and subsequent ramp-up through 2024, the Dangote Refinery has been under global scrutiny as the flagship of Nigeria’s industrial revival agenda.

In its first year of sustained operation, the refinery’s growing output has reshaped Nigeria’s fuel supply structure, reduced foreign exchange exposure, and rekindled confidence in local refining after decades of failed turnarounds at the government-owned Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries.

Commenting, the Chief Executive Officer of Petroleum.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, said that Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has recorded remarkable progress in the past year, with the Dangote Refinery now supplying about 40 per cent of the country’s daily petrol consumption.

Speaking in reaction to new supply data released by the NMDPRA, the analyst said the progress underscores the growing impact of local refineries on Nigeria’s energy security.

He, however, stressed that the Dangote Refinery and other local refiners require uninterrupted access to crude oil in naira to scale up production and reduce pump prices nationwide.

“The fact that import remains the country’s major source of refined products shows that there are still unresolved issues. In the last year, domestic supply championed by Dangote Refinery has made tremendous progress with about 40 per cent of our daily consumption. Dangote Refinery needs 100 per cent access to crude in naira to increase domestic supply and drive down prices at the pump,” he said.

He lamented that despite being Africa’s biggest crude oil producer and host to the continent’s largest refinery, Nigeria still imports about 60 per cent of its daily petrol needs, a situation he described as inconsistent with the country’s energy potential.

The Petroleum.ng chief urged the Federal Government and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to strengthen policies that guarantee local refineries full access to domestic crude supply.

“Nigeria, the biggest producer of crude in Africa with the biggest refinery in Africa, should not be importing about 60% of its daily fuel consumption; thus, our pump prices should be amongst the lowest in the world.

The FG, through NUPRC, should continue to formulate frameworks that would allow local refiners access to crude 100 per cent. For me, that’s the recipe for availability and affordability,” he added.

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