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N5.6tn debt: Energy crisis looms as gas firms cut supply

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Nigeria faces the threat of nationwide blackouts as gas companies reduce their supply to power plants due to an outstanding N5.6 trillion debt owed to power generation companies.

The development has raised concerns about the stability of the national grid and the country’s ability to sustain its electricity supply.

The Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the Association of Power Generation Companies, Dr Joy Ogaji, confirmed the development in an interview with The PUNCH on Thursday. She warned that the situation, if not urgently addressed, could push Nigeria deeper into darkness.

This warning came shortly after another national grid collapse threw the entire country into blackout earlier in the week. Although partial restoration has since brought back about 4,000 megawatts, many plants are still operating below capacity.

Ogaji explained that while GenCos remain committed to supporting the country, the liquidity crisis in the sector has spiralled out of control. She disclosed that from January to August 2025 alone, an additional N1.6tn debt had accumulated, bringing the total outstanding to N5.6tn.

She recalled that President Bola Tinubu had met with the GenCos on July 25 to discuss an estimated N4 trillion debt owed to them, covering legacy debts and unpaid invoices. At the meeting, Tinubu appealed for patience while the government completed the verification and validation of the claims. He also approved, in principle, a N4tn bond programme to address the liquidity gap in the sector.

“Almost two months after that meeting, there has been no follow-up engagement with the GenCos on how these debts will be settled,” Ogaji lamented.

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She explained that about 60 per cent of GenCos’ revenues go to gas producers, meaning that the debt burden directly undermines gas supply. With suppliers already reducing deliveries, she warned, the electricity market could soon grind to a halt.

Ogaji stressed that despite the patriotic commitment of operators to keep the lights on, factors outside their control make it nearly impossible to sustain generation. She listed gas supply, maintenance of machines, procurement of spare parts, and obligations to other creditors as key challenges.

“Gas suppliers have already started reducing supply. There are critical maintenance works on our machines, spares to purchase, and other creditors who are no longer willing to wait for payments. They now prioritise those who pay them promptly,” she stated.

According to her, the prevailing market structure is incompatible with Nigeria’s growth ambitions. “No substantial private sector investment will flow into this sector unless urgent reforms are implemented. Only the Federal Government, in collaboration with NBET and NERC, can unlock these challenges,” she said.

The APGC boss revealed that GenCos’ monthly invoices average N270bn, but only about N70bn is paid, leaving N200bn outstanding every month. She faulted the 2025 federal budget, which earmarked N900bn for the power sector without cash backing, calling it grossly inadequate.

She also expressed concerns over the Federal Government’s plan to issue promissory notes to settle the debts. According to her, the details of such instruments remain unclear, raising apprehension among investors.

“Promissory notes and bond proposals go to the root of our contractual agreements in the market. We must understand the terms, conditions, and risks before committing,” she said.

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Ogaji highlighted the risks of such instruments, including interest rate exposure, foreign exchange volatility, credit risk, and liquidity risk. She noted that promissory notes cannot be repurchased in the open market, which creates refinancing risks at maturity.

“GenCos will not make concessions that undermine our obligations to other creditors. Any breach of contractual terms by the government has a ripple effect on our finances and relationships with bankers and other partners,” she warned.

Ogaji urged the Federal Government, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, the Debt Management Office, and the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc to urgently engage GenCos on viable solutions. She questioned whether the proposed promissory notes would be exclusive to GenCos or open to other government contractors, which could dilute the chances of settlement for power producers.

“GenCos remain patriotic investors, but patriotism alone cannot run power plants. Without urgent action, Nigeria risks another round of prolonged blackouts,” she said.

Efforts to obtain the reaction of the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, were unsuccessful, as his spokesman, Bolaji Tunji, did not respond to calls or messages.

Meanwhile, the Transmission Company of Nigeria confirmed some recovery on the national grid, with power generation climbing to nearly 4,000 megawatts by Thursday. However, several power plants are yet to resume full output, underscoring the fragility of the system.

Industry stakeholders say that unless the Federal Government swiftly addresses the liquidity crisis and debt overhang, Nigeria’s electricity sector may face deeper collapse, with dire consequences for homes, businesses, and the overall economy.

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Customs hand over seized N40.7m petrol to NMDPRA

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The Comptroller-General of Customs, Adewale Adeniyi, on Friday handed over 1,650 jerrycans of Premium Motor Spirit, worth N40.7 million, to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority for further investigation.

Addressing journalists at the handover ceremony held at the Customs Training College in Ikeja, Adeniyi said the seized fuel was intercepted at various locations, including Badagry, Owode, Seme, and other axes within Lagos State.

Represented by the National Coordinator of Operation Whirlwind, Deputy Comptroller-General Abubakar Aliyu, Adeniyi said the contraband was intercepted over the past nine weeks.

“In the space of nine weeks, our operatives intensified surveillance and enforcement across critical border communities. A total of 1,650 jerrycans of 25 litres each were seized along notorious smuggling routes, including Adodo, Seme, Owode Apa, Ajilete, Idjaun, Ilaro, Badagry, Idiroko, and Imeko. The total duty-paid value of the PMS is N40.7 million,” Adeniyi said.

He added that three tankers used to transport the fuel were carrying 60,000, 45,000, and 49,000 litres respectively, totalling 154,000 litres of PMS.

According to Adeniyi, the interception was the result of intelligence-driven operations and the vigilance of Operation Whirlwind in safeguarding Nigeria’s economy and energy security.

He explained that the transportation and movement of petroleum products are governed by regulatory frameworks and standard operating procedures designed to prevent diversion, smuggling, hoarding, and economic sabotage.

“These items contravened the established Standard Operating Procedures of Operation Whirlwind,” Adeniyi said, emphasising that such violations undermine government policy, distort market stability, and deprive the nation of critical revenue.

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He warned that border corridors such as Owode, Seme, and Badagry remain sensitive economic arteries. “These routes have historically been exploited for illegal cross-border petroleum movement. Under our watch, there will be no safe haven for economic sabotage,” he said.

Adeniyi said the handover to NMDPRA reflects inter-agency collaboration. “While Customs enforces border control and anti-smuggling mandates, NMDPRA regulates distribution and ensures compliance with downstream laws. This collaboration ensures due process, transparency, and regulatory integrity,” he said.

Representing NMDPRA, Mrs. Grace Dauda said the agency ensures that petroleum products produced in Nigeria are consumed domestically. “It is unfortunate that some businessmen attempt to smuggle the product out of the country. The public must work together to stop economic sabotage,” she said.

Operation Whirlwind is a special tactical enforcement operation launched by the Nigeria Customs Service in 2024 to combat cross-border smuggling of petroleum products, particularly PMS, and other contraband that threaten Nigeria’s economic security. It was established in response to a surge in illegal fuel diversion across the country.

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Stocks drop, oil rises after Trump Iran threat

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Most Asia equities fell and oil prices rose on Friday after Donald Trump ratcheted up Middle East tensions by hinting at possible military strikes on Iran if it did not make a “meaningful deal” in nuclear talks.

The remarks fanned geopolitical concerns and cast a pall over a tentative rebound in markets following an AI-fuelled sell-off this month.

Traders are also looking ahead to the release of US data later in the day that will provide a fresh snapshot of the world’s top economy.

A slew of forecast-beating figures over the past few days have lifted optimism about the outlook but tempered expectations for more interest rate cuts.

The US president told the inaugural meeting of the “Board of Peace”, his initiative to secure stability in Gaza, that Tehran should make a deal.

“It’s proven to be over the years not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran. We have to make a meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen,” he said, as he deployed warships, fighter jets and other military hardware to the region.

He warned that Washington “may have to take it a step further” without any agreement, adding: “You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier warned: “If the ayatollahs make a mistake and attack us, they will receive a response they cannot even imagine.”

The threats come days after the United States and Iran held a second round of Omani-mediated talks in Geneva as Washington looks to prevent the country from getting a nuclear bomb, which Tehran says it is not pursuing.

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The prospect of a conflict in the crude-rich Middle East has sent oil prices surging this week, and they extended the gains Friday to sit at their highest levels since June.

Equity traders were also spooked.

Hong Kong fell as it reopened from a three-day break, while Tokyo, Sydney, Wellington and Bangkok were also down. However, Seoul continued to rally to a fresh record thanks to more tech buying, with Singapore, Manila and Mumbai also up.

City Index market analyst Matt Simpson said a strike was not certain.

“At its core, this looks like pressure and leverage rather than a prelude to invasion,” he wrote.

“The US is pairing military readiness with stalled nuclear negotiations, signalling it has credible strike options if talks fail. That doesn’t automatically translate into boots on the ground or a regime-change campaign.

“While military assets dominate headlines, diplomacy is still in motion. The fact talks are continuing at all suggests both sides are still probing for a diplomatic off-ramp before tensions harden further.”

Shares in Jakarta slipped even after Trump and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto reached a trade deal after months of wrangling.

The accord sets a 19 percent tariff on Indonesian goods entering the United States. The Southeast Asian country had been threatened with a potential 32 percent levy before the pact.

Jakarta also agreed to $33 billion in purchases of US energy commodities, agricultural products and aviation-related goods, including Boeing aircraft.

– Key figures at around 0700 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 56,825.70 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.7 percent at 26,508.98

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Shanghai – Composite: Closed for holiday

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.9 percent at $67.05 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.9 percent at $72.27 per barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1756 from $1.1767 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3448 from $1.3458

Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.42 pence from 87.43 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 155.17 yen from 155.07 yen

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.5 percent at 49,395.16 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 10,627.04 (close)

AFP

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FG defers 70% of 2025 capital budget to 2026

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The Federal Government has said it will implement 30 per cent of the 2025 capital budget before the end of November, as part of measures to fast-track project execution and clear outstanding obligations.

It also stated that the remaining 70 per cent has been rolled over into the 2026 capital budget to ensure seamless implementation. The move follows a directive to Ministries, Departments, and Agencies to comply strictly with procurement rules in the execution and payment of capital projects under the extended 2025 budget cycle.

In a statement on Thursday by the Director of Press and Public Relations at the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, Bawa Mokwa, the government said MDAs had been instructed to align fully with the Public Procurement Act in implementing the 2025 and 2026 capital budgets.

The Minister of State for Finance, Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, gave the directive during a stakeholders’ meeting on the implementation of the extended 2025 Capital Budget held at the Federal Ministry of Finance in Abuja.

She stressed that capital disbursements must follow due process.

The statement read, “Mrs Uzoka-Anite emphasised that all capital payments must comply with the principles of the Procurement Act and that capital projects must be backed by cash before execution. She warned that no capital payment should be processed outside approved procurement procedures.”

She added that the country has sufficient funds to settle outstanding obligations and urged MDAs to update their documentation to enable quicker processing of payments.

The statement noted, “The Minister further stated that the nation has adequate funds to settle pending payments and urged MDAs to review and update their documentation to facilitate the timely processing of payments.”

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Providing further details, the Accountant-General of the Federation, Dr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, disclosed that the Government Integrated Financial Management Information System had been fully restored.

Ogunjimi reiterated that warrants had already been issued to MDAs and announced that Treasury House would begin implementation of the 30 per cent component of the 2025 budget by the end of next week.

The statement read, “Dr Ogunjimi explained that 30 per cent of the 2025 Capital Budget will be implemented between now and 30 November 2026, while the remaining 70 per cent has been rolled over into the 2026 Capital Budget to ensure seamless implementation, in line with the directive of President Bola Tinubu.

“He reiterated that warrants have already been issued to MDAs and announced that Treasury House will commence implementation of the 30 per cent component of the 2025 Budget by the end of next week.”

The decision effectively means that a significant portion of last year’s capital allocations will now be executed within the current fiscal window, while the bulk has been carried forward into the 2026 capital framework to avoid disruption of ongoing projects.

Earlier in his welcome address, the Director of Funds, Mr Steve Ehikhamenor, cautioned MDAs against exceeding approved allocations. He urged them to avoid budget overruns and to adhere strictly to approved project items and their corresponding values.

He also advised agencies not to exceed the amounts specified in their warrants, to return any unutilised or excess funds to the Treasury, and to work closely with GIFMIS officials for technical support.

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The PUNCH earlier in December 2025 exclusively reported that the Federal Government ordered ministries, departments, and agencies to carry over 70 per cent of their 2025 capital budget into the 2026 fiscal year as the administration moved to prioritise the completion of existing projects and contain spending pressures in the face of weak revenues.

The directive was contained in the 2026 Abridged Budget Call Circular issued by the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning and circulated to ministers, service chiefs, heads of agencies, and other senior government officials in Abuja.

The circular stated that only 30 per cent of the 2025 capital budget would be released within the year, while the remaining 70 per cent would form the basis of the 2026 capital budget, replacing the traditional rollover approach.

However, the Federal Government did not release the 30 per cent earmarked for 2025, resulting in its deferral into 2026, as ministers raised concerns over the non-release of funds for capital projects.

The PUNCH earlier reported that ministers in charge of key infrastructure and service-delivery agencies are grappling with a severe funding squeeze, as figures showed that MDAs received less than N1tn for capital projects in the first seven months of 2025.

The data used for this report was the most up-to-date available from the Budget Office of the Federation, as the agency had yet to release comprehensive full-year implementation figures, despite the fiscal year being well advanced.

An analysis of data from the Budget Office of the Federation’s Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (2026–2028) showed that while N18.53tn was appropriated for capital expenditure for “MDAs and others” in 2025, the January–July pro rata benchmark stood at N10.81tn.

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However, actual capital releases to MDAs and related entities during the period amounted to just N834.80bn. That left a pro rata shortfall of about N9.98tn and a performance rate of only 7.72 per cent within the seven-month window.

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