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NNPCL secures N318bn to fund new oil exploration

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has received N318.05bn between January and August 2025 for frontier oil exploration, findings by The PUNCH have shown.

This is according to documents from the September 2025 Federation Account Allocation Committee meeting obtained by The PUNCH.

The deductions represent 30 per cent of Production Sharing Contract profits, which are automatically set aside each month for exploration in inland basins.

The Petroleum Industry Act 2021 created the Frontier Exploration Fund, which mandates that 30 per cent of profits from NNPC’s Production Sharing Contracts be channelled into oil search across under-explored basins, including Anambra, Bida, Dahomey, Sokoto, Chad and Benue.

Regulations also require the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to manage the fund through an escrow account and issue an annual Frontier Basin Exploration and Development Plan.

Further findings by The PUNCH showed that the NUPRC in July 2025 unveiled a Frontier Basin Exploration and Development Plan detailing proposed seismic surveys, stress-field detection, data integration, and wildcat drilling across basins in Benin Dahomey, Anambra, Bida, Sokoto, Chad, and Benue.

The plan outlined work such as logging and testing of the Eba-1 well in the Dahomey basin, drilling of a new wildcat in Bida, reappraisal of Wadi wells in Chad, and reassignment of Ebeni-1 drilling in Benue.

Signed by the Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Gbenga Komolafe, the document stated that the outcome of these activities would determine further de-risking of assets and exploratory drilling in line with statutory requirements.

Analysis of the FAAC documents by The PUNCH further showed that PSC profits so far this year amounted to N1.06tn, below the budgeted N1.58tn, creating a shortfall of N518.76bn.

Despite this gap, the statutory 30 per cent deduction for frontier exploration was consistently applied, month after month, producing an accumulated N318.05bn by August.

The monthly trend reveals the volatility of the fund. In January, N31.77bn was deducted into the frontier line, when PSC profits came in at N105.91bn.

The February deduction rose to N38.30bn from a profit of N127.67bn, representing a 20.6 per cent increase on the January inflow.

March provided the first big surge, with N61.49bn allocated to frontier exploration from profits of N204.96bn, a jump of 60.5 per cent on February’s figure.

April, however, saw deductions ease back to N36.58bn as profits slid to N121.93bn, a 40.5 per cent drop compared with March.

In May, the fund received N38.8bn, only slightly higher than April’s contribution, reflecting profit of N129.33bn.

June delivered the lowest allocation so far this year, just N6.83bn, after profits collapsed to N22.77bn. That represented an 82.4 per cent fall from May.

The flow recovered somewhat in July, with N25.34bn transferred into the fund from profits of N84.48bn.

In August, the line shot up again to its highest level so far this year. With PSC profit surging to N263.13bn, the fund received N78.94bn, more than three times the July amount and twelve times June’s contribution.

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Across the eight months, the monthly allocations to the frontier fund varied sharply, from as little as N6.83bn in June to as much as N78.94bn in August.

Yet by the end of the period, the automatic deductions had steadily accumulated N318.05bn into NNPCL’s control for exploration in new oil basins.

The same 30 per cent rule also applied to NNPCL’s management fees, which mirrored the frontier deductions exactly.

In January, NNPCL booked N31.77bn; in February, N38.30bn; in March, N61.49bn; in April, N36.58bn; in May, N38.8bn; in June, N6.83bn; in July, N25.34bn; and in August, N78.94bn.

This brought the company’s management fees to N318.05bn in the first eight months of the year.

Based on the figures, the oil firm got a total of N636.1bn for frontier exploration and management fees.

The PUNCH further observed that the Federation Account, entitled to 40 per cent of PSC profits, also experienced the same volatility.

It received N42.364bn in January and N51.067bn in February. March brought N81.985bn, the strongest inflow of the first quarter.

April saw a fall to N48.772bn, followed by N51.730bn in May. June gave the lowest figure of the year at N9.110bn.

In July, receipts rose again to N33.792bn, before climbing steeply to N105.250bn in August, the largest monthly payout so far.

Year-to-date, the Federation Account has received N424.071bn from PSC profits, still well behind the budgeted N631.573bn, leaving a shortfall of N207.502bn.

The FAAC documents confirmed that while PSC profits generated just over N1.06tn this year, the deductions left the Federation Account with significantly less to share among the three tiers of government.

The pressure has been compounded by the non-performance of NNPCL’s interim dividend line.

Budgeted at N271.184bn per month, or N2.169tn year-to-date, the company has not remitted any amount so far, leaving a gaping hole in the federation’s revenue plan.

The issue has prompted closer scrutiny. The FAAC documents record that a special subcommittee was set up to examine the 30 per cent frontier deductions.

The committee met with NNPCL, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, and the Central Bank of Nigeria.

At the meeting, NNPCL presented details of exploration activities carried out in all the inland basins from 1999 to date and outlined its intended activities for 2025.

Committee members, however, demanded greater transparency, insisting that NNPCL provide detailed financial records of projects undertaken before and after the Petroleum Industry Act was passed.

The company was directed to submit the information by September 19, 2025, but the documents noted that the assignment was still “work in progress.”

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The Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Tanimu Yakubu, earlier said Nigeria had lost nearly 60 per cent of its gross oil revenue to deductions under the Petroleum Industry Act 2022, which allocates 30 per cent to the NNPCL as management fees and another 30 per cent to the Frontier Exploration Fund.

He made this statement at a stakeholders’ engagement in Abuja, organised by the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, to review progress and challenges in implementing the extended 2024 capital budget and the 2025 capital budget under the Bottom-Up Cash Planning Policy.

“Once the Act came into effect without new revenue sources to replace the loss, we lost a sizable part of what used to fund 80 per cent of public expenditure,” Yakubu said.

He added that oil revenues had performed even worse in the first half of 2025 due to low prices and output shortfalls.

Yakubu said he had begun moves in the National Assembly to amend the PIA to recover part of the lost revenue.

During the Federal Executive Council meeting in Abuja last month, President Bola Tinubu directed a review of deductions and revenue retention practices by Nigeria’s major revenue-generating agencies.

The move aims to boost public savings, enhance spending efficiency, and unlock resources for growth.

The agencies include the Federal Inland Revenue Service, the Nigeria Customs Service, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency, and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

Tinubu specifically called for a reassessment of NNPC’s 30 per cent management fee and 30 per cent frontier exploration deduction under the Petroleum Industry Act.

He tasked the Economic Management Team, chaired by Edun, to present actionable recommendations to the FEC on the optimal way forward.

The President said the directive was part of efforts to sustain reforms that have dismantled economic distortions, restored policy credibility, enhanced resilience, and bolstered investor confidence.

However, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, as well as the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers, rejected the Federal Government’s plans to divest significant stakes in Joint Venture assets managed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

The two unions warned that the move to allegedly amend the Petroleum Industry Act and remove the running of oil and gas from the NNPCL could endanger the country’s economic stability, weaken its oil industry, and jeopardise the welfare of workers.

They stated that the policies are dangerous and capable of bankrupting the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

The oil workers urged President Bola Tinubu to intervene and halt the plan.

Experts seek deductions

Speaking with The PUNCH on Wednesday, the Chief Executive Officer of AHA Strategies, who is an oil and gas expert, Mr Ademola Adigun, has faulted the 30 per cent allocation of Production Sharing Contract profits to frontier oil exploration, describing it as “unrealistic and too high.”

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Reacting to revelations that NNPCL received N318.05bn for frontier exploration in just eight months without paying dividends to the Federation Account, Adigun said the current arrangement was not justifiable under prevailing economic conditions.

“The money allocation is unrealistic, too high. It is not well used now,” he stated.

He backed President Bola Tinubu’s call for a review of deductions by major revenue agencies, including NNPCL, insisting that more revenue should flow into the Federation Account. “I don’t think it’s worth it to continue this way,” Adigun added.

The industry expert recommended that the frontier allocation be cut drastically, proposing that it should not exceed 10 per cent.

“Maximum of 10 per cent is what I would suggest,” he said.

However, an energy law scholar at the University of Lagos, Professor Dayo Ayoade, has cautioned against a hasty amendment of the Petroleum Industry Act, stressing that the law took nearly two decades of negotiations and compromises before it was passed.

Reacting to the revelations on frontier deductions, he said, “It took us 19 years of reform to agree on the PIA, and the PIA is actually a delicate balance of a lot of compromises. The Frontier Exploration Fund, in many ways, was like a counterbalance to the Host Community Trust Fund.”

While acknowledging Nigeria’s urgent revenue needs, Ayoade insisted that NNPCL must give a detailed account of the money it has collected for frontier exploration.

“It was one of the biggest problems I had with the PIA because I knew that 30 per cent of PSC profits going into just exploration was too high. I would rather that exploration be liberalised and put in the hands of the private sector,” he explained.

He suggested that private investors willing to take the risk of exploring frontier basins should be offered strong tax and operational incentives, instead of government using public funds through NNPCL.

“There should not be any NNPCL spending government money on this project,” Ayoade added.

The scholar also warned that the current funding model posed risks to fiscal federalism and undermined NNPCL’s commercial credibility.

“The funding structure is not really sustainable, and that is the truth. NNPCL is not really a commercial company. All it does is act as a middleman for government and collect money it has not really earned,” he argued, adding that the company should be judged by profits generated from its own fields and operations rather than from joint ventures or production sharing arrangements.

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NNPC urged to revive refineries after Dangote snub

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The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, has tackled the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) over its attempt to increase its stake in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery despite the poor state of government-owned refineries.

Ukadike stated this while reacting to comments by the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, that the refinery rejected requests by the NNPC to increase its 7.25 per cent stake in the $20bn facility.

Dangote had disclosed this during an interview with the Chief Executive Officer of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, Nicolai Tangen, monitored by our correspondents on Wednesday.

Reacting to the development, Ukadike questioned why the national oil company was seeking to invest more funds in the privately-owned refinery when the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries under its control had remained largely inactive despite billions of dollars spent on rehabilitation.

“Why is NNPC trying to invest money in the Dangote refinery when it has three refineries that are not working? Why is NNPC not investing that money in those ones?” Ukadike asked.

He added, “The NNPC did not revive our refineries, but they want to look for where the refinery is already working to put money into it. Does that make sense?”

The IPMAN spokesman said Dangote had the right to reject the offer from the NNPC if he considered it unsuitable for his business interests.

“If Dangote refused to sell more stakes to NNPC, he must have his reasons. Dangote is a businessman. He doesn’t want issues, unnecessary crises, and nepotism. He knows what he wants, and I also think he has enough cash to fund his business,” he stated.

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Ukadike further urged the national oil company to focus on reviving critical oil infrastructure across the country instead of pursuing additional ownership of the refinery. “The NNPC should repair the pipelines and revive the refineries instead of eyeing the Dangote refinery,” he said.

Dangote had stated during the interview that the NNPC was interested in acquiring more shares in the refinery after previously purchasing a 7.25 per cent stake for $1bn in 2021. According to him, the request was rejected because the company planned to list the refinery publicly and allow more Nigerians to own shares in the project.

“The other biggest risk is government inconsistencies in policies, and we are addressing that one because if you look at our refinery, the national oil company already owns 7.25 per cent, and they are trying to buy more. We are the ones that said no; we want to now spread it and have everybody be part of it,” Dangote said.

The NNPC had initially planned to acquire a 20 per cent stake in the refinery, but later reduced its ownership to 7.25 per cent after failing to pay the balance before the June 2024 deadline.

Dangote had explained this in 2024, saying, “The agreement was actually 20 per cent, which we had with NNPC, and they did not pay the balance of the money up until last year; then we gave them another extension up until June (2024), and they said that they would remain where they had already paid, which is 7.2 per cent. So NNPC owns only 7.2 per cent, not 20 per cent.”

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However, a stakeholder in the petroleum sector who pleaded for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter held that the interest of the nation is well served by NNPC having a 20 per cent stake in the Dangote refinery.

“I think Nigeria is better served by NNPC being a shareholder. If NNPC could have taken 20 per cent of that refinery, Nigeria as a country would be better served,” the stakeholder said.

According to him, the fact that the NNPC failed to get the 20 per cent take before does not mean it could not get it again. He said Dangote refused NNPC’s offer because he wants to remain in control.

“You know Dangote is planning to value his company at $50bn. I think he’s going to sell 10 per cent only, so he remains in control, making a lot of money for himself. Selling only 10 per cent means he has 90 per cent. If NNPC were there with 20 per cent, then NNPC would have two directors. These two directors would have some say,” he said.

The stakeholder added that such an important asset cannot exist in a country without the government’s involvement.

“You can’t have such a big asset in the country, and then the government or the government’s agent has no say in the decisions of that company. It can’t happen. It’s wrong. I’m not saying the government must have a say in all the big companies, but in a company that is so big that it can influence whether the sun rises or falls in that country, the government must have a say.

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“The refinery is big. In any case, NNPC is also the supplier of last resort. It’s the national oil company. That has some meaning. I think that in the best interest of the country, if we all agree that Dangote is too big to fail, then it means that Nigerians as a people need to be inside the Dangote refinery to make sure it does not fail,” the operator said.

Meanwhile, a senior official of the NNPC said the NNPC is proud of its current stake in the Dangote refinery.

“The NNPC is proud and happy that we own a 7.2 per cent stake in Dangote. And whatever we own as a stake in Dangote as a national oil company is on behalf of the entire Nigeria. So, when the opportunity presents itself in the long term, yes.

“But right now, we are proud of the 7.2 per cent stake we own in the Dangote refinery. Apart from that, the quality and level of collaboration that is currently going on between NNPC and Dangote is in the interest of the entire Nigeria,” the official said, begging not to be mentioned because he was not authorised to speak on the matter.

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2027 poll spending may trigger inflation, MPC warns

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Members of the Monetary Policy Committee have warned that rising political and election-related spending ahead of the 2027 general elections could undermine the country’s disinflation gains and trigger fresh inflationary pressures.

The warnings were contained in the personal statements of MPC members released by the apex bank and obtained by The PUNCH on Thursday. The MPC, at its 304th meeting held on February 23 and 24, 2026, reduced the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points from 27 per cent to 26.5 per cent, while retaining other key monetary parameters.

CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, had earlier warned in the MPC communiqué that election-related fiscal spending could threaten the inflation outlook despite the current moderation in prices.

According to the communiqué signed by Cardoso, “The outlook indicates that the current momentum of domestic disinflation will continue in the near term. This is premised on the lagged impact of previous monetary policy tightening, sustained stability in the foreign exchange market and improved food supply. However, increased fiscal releases including election-related spending could pose upside risk to the outlook.”

Also, in his personal statement, he noted “Growing fiscal pressures, from reduced government fiscal headroom and the approaching 2027 election cycle, warrant particular attention given the well-established link between pre-election fiscal expansion and inflation.”

CBN Deputy Governor for Economic Policy, Dr Muhammad Abdullahi, also highlighted election-related spending as a major risk to the inflation outlook. He said, “As political activities intensify ahead of the 2027 elections, increased fiscal injections and consumption spending could elevate demand-side inflation.”

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Abdullahi added that “the fiscal deficit has already increased significantly, and election-related spending is likely to exacerbate this trend in 2026 and early 2027.” According to him, stronger fiscal-monetary coordination would be needed to manage the liquidity impact of rising government spending.

Similarly, the CBN Deputy Governor for Operations, Emem Usoro, warned that the pre-election environment could worsen liquidity conditions and inflation expectations. Usoro stated, “Crucially, the pre-election environment increases the risk of liquidity surges, higher FX demand and a drift in inflation expectations.”

She added that the risks justified maintaining tight liquidity conditions despite the moderate rate cut. According to her, “These considerations support small, cautious adjustments and the retention of strong liquidity and prudential buffers.”

Also raising concerns was the newly appointed Deputy Governor, Lamido Yuguda, who said increased fiscal releases and election spending could disrupt the disinflation trend.

Yuguda, who was a former Director General of the Securities and Exchange Commission, noted, “The 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public deposits remains critical, particularly given the potential for increased fiscal releases as implementation of Executive Order 9 advances.”

He further warned that, “Potential increases in fiscal spending associated with the electoral cycle could generate demand pressures and disrupt the disinflation trajectory.”

A member of the MPC, Dr Aloysius Ordu, warned that political spending tied to the elections could put pressure on foreign exchange demand and test the resilience of the economy. He said, “Domestically, rising political spending and FX demand pressures associated with the 2027 elections will test the resilience of the economy.”

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Ordu added that although reforms such as Executive Order 9 were expected to improve fiscal transparency and strengthen reserves, high debt servicing costs and political-cycle spending remained major concerns for macroeconomic management.

Another MPC member, Bandele Amoo, also expressed concern over excess liquidity from fiscal injections and early political activities ahead of the elections. He said, “My primary concern is the persistence of excess liquidity from fiscal injections, which could undermine disinflation gains and exchange rate stability.”

Amoo further noted that “fiscal spending pressures linked to the 2026 budget cycle, and early political activities ahead of the 2027 elections may heighten risks.”

Another committee member, Professor Murtala Sagagi, said the main domestic risks to inflation included fiscal slippages and election-related spending. He said, “Upside risks to the inflation outlook warrant monitoring, particularly increased fiscal releases including election-related spending and any pass-through from global oil price volatility to domestic fuel prices.”

Sagagi added that “the primary domestic risks are fiscal slippage and the possibility of election-related spending which are medium-term in nature.” He urged stronger fiscal discipline and closer coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities.

The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to hold on Tuesday, May 19 and Wednesday, May 20, 2026. This would be about four days after the National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release the country’s Consumer Price Index report for April 2026 on May 15.

Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 15.38 per cent in March 2026, marking a reversal in the recent easing trend, as increases in food, transport, and accommodation costs pushed prices higher. The PUNCH observed that this was the first time the headline inflation rate had increased since March 2025.

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In its Inflation Forecast report for April 2026, the Financial Market Dealers Association projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation would rise to 16.42 per cent year-on-year in April 2026, as sustained pressure from food prices, higher energy costs and elevated global commodity prices continue to shape the domestic price environment.

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Presidential fleet operations gulp N4.24bn in six months – Read report details

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The Presidential Air Fleet received at least N4.24bn in disbursements between June and December 2025, the latest updates on GovSpend, a civic technology platform that tracks and analyses Federal Government spending, have revealed.

Findings by The PUNCH also revealed that the disbursements, made into the Presidential Air Fleet naira transit account operated by the Presidential Air Fleets (State House), were recorded in eight separate transactions across three months of June, July and December 2025, with the bulk of the transfers concentrated in July, when four transactions totalling N2.43bn were made in the space of a week.

A breakdown of the transactions shows that N1.285bn was disbursed on June 12, followed by N430m on July 24, N1.28bn on July 25, N92m on July 29, and N626m on July 31.

In December, three further disbursements were recorded. They include N9m on December 18, described in the GovSpend database as “Presidential Air Fleet forex transit funds,” N343.9m on December 30 and N90.9m on December 31.

Four of the eight transactions carry no accompanying description, listed simply as “None,” a pattern consistent with previous disbursements to the transit account.

Most disbursements to the Presidential Air Fleet transit account are labelled “Forex Transit Funds,” typically funds allocated for foreign exchange requirements to facilitate international transactions, covering expenses related to operations outside the country, including fuel purchases, maintenance or services in foreign currencies.

The new figures add to a growing cumulative spend that has accelerated significantly since Tinubu assumed office.

At least N26.38bn was spent on the operations of the Presidential Air Fleet from July 2023 to December 2024, with N14.15bn disbursed in 2024 alone.

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The Presidential Air Fleet’s total budget allocation stood at N17.32bn in 2025, declining to N14.70bn in 2026.

The reduction was driven mainly by decreased capital expenditure.

Engine overhaul projects across the fleet consumed N4.58bn in 2024, N8.65bn in 2025 and N6.05bn in 2026, bringing the three-year aggregate to N19.27bn.

Since 2017, under the Buhari administration, budgetary allocations for the fleet have shown a growing trend, with one exception in 2020, rising from N4.37bn in 2017 to N20.52bn in 2024, a 370 per cent increase in running costs over seven years.

In an interview with our correspondent, the General Secretary of the Aviation Round Table, Olumide Ohunayo, had blamed the meteoric rise on the age of some of the aircraft in the fleet and the declining value of the naira, as well as the “commercial use” of aircraft by the Nigerian Air Force.

Ohunayo explained, “The cost will definitely increase over the years because, for one, this issue of the naira against the dollar.

“As the naira keeps falling to the dollar, we will see a rise in cost because most of the costs of training crew and engineers and replacing aircraft parts are all in dollars.

“Also, some of these aircraft are not new. The older the aircraft, the higher the cost of maintenance and operation.

“Lastly, during these past years, terrorism and insecurity have increased in Nigeria, which has also affected the cost of insuring the aircraft.”

In late April 2024, Tinubu was compelled to charter a private jet to continue his journey to Saudi Arabia after the state-owned Gulfstream 550, which had been assigned to carry him, developed an unspecified technical fault in the Netherlands, forcing him to abandon the aircraft mid-tour.

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The episode had prompted the House of Representatives Committee on National Security and Intelligence to recommend the procurement of two new presidential aircraft.

In August 2024, the official Boeing 737 business jet for the President was replaced with an Airbus A330 purchased for $100m through service-wide votes.

The nearly 15-year-old plane, an ACJ330-200, VP-CAC (MSN 1053), is “spacious and furnished with state-of-the-art avionics, customised interior and communications system,” Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, said, adding “it will save Nigeria huge maintenance and fuel costs, running into millions of dollars yearly.”

From February through July 2025, the President flew a San Marino-registered BBJ (REG: T7-NAS).

Sources who spoke to one of our correspondents confirmed that the primary aircraft had been flown to South Africa to change its colours to reflect the office of the President. It was flown back in July 2025.

The Presidential Air Fleet comprises a fixed-wing fleet that includes the Airbus ACJ330-200, a Gulfstream G550, a Gulfstream G500, two Falcon 7Xs, a Hawker 4000 and a Challenger 605, three of which are reportedly unserviceable.

The rotor-wing fleet includes two Agusta 139s and two Agusta 101s, operated by the Nigerian Air Force under the supervision of the Office of the National Security Adviser.

The CEO of Centurion Security Limited, John Ojikutu, argued that the disbursements for the air fleet operations were justified considering all related expenses.

“That’s not a big deal. If they are going for repair, particularly for C-checks. It’s always around that range.

“They will fly it abroad, buy fuel, catering, and hotel bills are also involved; pilots will fly it back, and the figure likely includes far more than the direct cost of repairing the aircraft,” Ojikutu explained, adding that the figure likely includes far more than the direct cost of operating the aircraft.

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The Presidency did not respond to inquiries on the nature of the specific disbursements captured in the recent data.

As of the time of filing this report, calls to the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, went unanswered.

In an earlier interview with our correspondent, Onanuga had argued that the costs of maintaining the air fleet are not for the President but in the interest of Nigerians.

“It’s not President Tinubu’s plane; it belongs to the people of Nigeria, it is our property…the President did not buy a new jet; what he has is a refurbished jet, but it is a much newer model than the one President Buhari used.

“Nigerians should try to prioritise the safety of the President. I’m not sure anybody wishes our President to go and crash in the air.

“We want his safety so that he can hand it over to whoever wants to take over from him,” Onanuga said.

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