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Naira, stocks drop after Trump’s military threat

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Nigeria’s financial markets began November 2025 on a sour note as the naira and equities weakened sharply following remarks by United States President Donald Trump, who threatened possible military action against Nigeria over alleged religious persecution.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the naira, which had traded at a 2025 peak of N1,421.73/$, depreciated to N1,436.34/$ on Monday, marking a 1.03 per cent decline or N14.61 loss in one day. The currency also weakened at the parallel market to N1,455/$, reflecting increased investor anxiety and foreign-exchange demand pressure.

The sudden depreciation followed a weekend of heightened geopolitical tension after Trump, via his Truth Social platform, labelled Nigeria a “country of particular concern” and directed the US Department of War to prepare for “possible action” should alleged killings of Christians persist.

According to Trump, the move was a response to what he described as a “Christian genocide” in Nigeria — a claim that sparked global debate and uncertainty about diplomatic and economic implications for Africa’s largest economy.

The development quickly rippled through financial markets. At the Nigerian Exchange Limited, bearish trading resumed on Monday as the All-Share Index dropped by 0.25 per cent to close at 153,739.11 points, trimming year-to-date gains to 49.37 per cent. Market capitalisation declined by N245.88 billion, settling at N97.58tn.

The downturn was largely driven by selloffs in Aradel Holdings (-9.21 per cent) and Access Corporation (-3.07 per cent). Investor sentiment remained weak, with 38 stocks declining against 19 gainers. Union Dicon emerged as the top gainer (+9.93 per cent), while Honeywell Flour Mills led the losers (-10.00 per cent).

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Trading activity also slowed sharply, as total volume and value traded plunged 87.94 per cent and 44.64 per cent, respectively, to 627.5 million units worth N25bn. United Bank for Africa dominated the session, accounting for 136.8 million units (21.8 per cent of total volume) valued at N5.5bn (22.2 per cent of total value).

Across sectors, performance was mixed. Oil & Gas (-3.94 per cent), Commodities (-1.85 per cent), Insurance (-1.48 per cent), and Banking (-0.22 per cent) all recorded losses, while Consumer Goods rose slightly by 0.49 per cent. The Industrial sector closed flat.

In the bond market, Cowry Assets Management reported that investor appetite for Nigeria’s Eurobonds weakened on Monday, with average yields rising by 5 basis points to 7.70 per cent. The investment firm attributed this to global risk aversion, macroeconomic uncertainty, and geopolitical concerns.

According to Bloomberg, Nigeria’s dollar-denominated bonds were the worst-performing among emerging markets on Monday, with all ten notes ranking among the global underperformers. Bonds maturing in 2047 fell the most, down 0.6 cents on the dollar to 88.26 cents before paring some losses later in the day.

Despite the turmoil, some analysts described the reaction as temporary. Tilewa Adebajo, Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory, told The PUNCH that the market’s reaction was “not sustainable.”

“This appears to be a mere blip,” Adebajo said. “Closing prices in global markets today already reflect recovery. With Nigeria recently removed from the FATF Grey List, the market still offers strong long-term fundamentals.”

However, Dr Musa Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, warned that Trump’s statements could seriously undermine investor confidence.

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“The US President’s threat of military intervention in Nigeria is unwarranted, counterproductive, and economically destabilising,” Yusuf said in a policy brief. “Such remarks send unsettling signals to investors, heighten risk perception, and undermine confidence in Nigeria’s economy.”

He added that while Nigeria must continue to strengthen its internal security and governance, any engagement with foreign powers “should be cooperative, not coercive.”

“Unilateral military action,” Yusuf warned, “would destabilise Nigeria’s economy, threaten regional stability, and worsen humanitarian conditions. The constructive path forward lies in diplomacy, partnership, and mutual respect for sovereignty.”

As markets await clarity on US policy and Nigeria’s diplomatic response, analysts say sustained stability will depend on calm, confidence-building measures, and consistent macroeconomic policy from the Federal Government and the CBN.

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FG urged to expand grazing reserves nationwide

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Livestock and agriculture stakeholders have called on the Federal Government to fast-track the phased development of grazing reserves beyond the three pilot locations to at least one reserve in each of the six geopolitical zones. They welcomed the initiative as a step in the right direction.

The call followed the Federal Government’s commencement of a phased grazing reserve development programme, beginning with pilot sites at Wawa-Zange in Gombe State, Wase in Plateau State and Kawu in the Bwari Area Council of the Federal Capital Territory.

The Ministry of Livestock Development had said it was working with other ministries, state governments and the private sector to ensure the reserves have “good public schools for the pastoralists, for their children to attend… access roads and… public healthcare.”

In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, stakeholders, including the National Secretary of the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria, Aliyu Gotomo, described the move as overdue but cautioned that the scope remained limited.

“Generally, the development of grazing reserves is the most essential thing that is required for pastoralism development. And I think it’s a welcome development that they have started. At least we have started somewhere,” Gotomo said.

He added that properly developed reserves with water, veterinary services and access roads would reduce transhumance and insecurity. “If these things are provided, the major movement from one state to the other in search of greener pastures will be reduced. So, all the conflicts from farmer-herder and other insecurity issues will also be alleviated,” he said.

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However, Gotomo urged the government to expand the programme. He said, “Considering about 417 grazing reserves across the states, I think the number is very, very small. They could have started at least with one in each of the political zones,” stressing that the scale did not match “the population of livestock we have in Nigeria and the number of people engaged in pastoralism.”

He also called for deeper engagement with pastoralists, local governments and traditional rulers to ensure ownership and sustainability.

“The actual beneficiaries, the native pastoralists, should be properly engaged… The local government areas and traditional rulers should also be involved so that proper maintenance and sustainability can be adhered to,” he added.

Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Agriculture and Allied Group, Tunde Banjoko, also welcomed the initiative but echoed concerns about regional balance and transparency.

“I think the idea of phased grazing by the Federal Government is a very good initiative. I also believe it will reduce the frequent clashes we are having with farmers,” Banjoko said, adding that it would improve quality and returns for farmers and attract private investment.

He warned, however, that concentration of reserves in limited areas could create new tensions.

“Out of the 417 grazing reserves, except for two in the South-West, I’m not sure there’s any in the South-South or South-East. So, what is the alternative for them?” he asked.

Banjoko urged the government to ensure national spread: “We need to also provide more alternatives in the South-South, South-West and South-East so that we can reduce these frequent clashes in this region as well.”

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He further called for openness in implementation. “People want to see the pictures; people want to see how far they have gone. If there’s enough transparency, then the private sector will come in,” he added, while stressing the need for strong regulations, stakeholder engagement and traceability systems in livestock management.

President of the Commercial Dairy Ranchers Association of Nigeria, Muhammadu Abubakar, said the pilot phase should serve as a model for nationwide rollout.

“The government embarking on a phased grazing reserve development is a good idea. At least the first three should serve as a model,” Abubakar said.

The CODARAN chief noted that the pilots would allow the government to test and refine the approach before scaling up.

“That is where you can experiment with the workability… Look at the downs and the ups and then make amends. Then you will have a model that you just pick and plug in other reserves,” he said.

Abubakar expressed confidence in the public-private approach, noting that challenges would become clearer as implementation progresses.

“When that takes off, we from the private sector will be involved, and then we’re likely going to point out areas that should be corrected or amended,” he added.

The stakeholders agreed that while the pilot programme marks a positive start, expanding the reserves across all zones and carrying communities along would be critical to reducing conflicts and modernising Nigeria’s livestock sector.

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Bread prices: No significant drop in flour price, variables — Bakers

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Premium Breadmakers Association of Nigeria, PBAN, has refuted a viral social media post claiming that the price of flour has plummeted to between N35,000 to N40,000 per 50kg bag. The post further accuses bread makers of “wickedly” refusing to reduce the prices of bread to reflect the drop.

A statement by Emmanuel Onyoh, General Secretary, PBAN, said that the claims are false, and a calculated attempt to incite the Nigerian public against “hardworking bakers who are struggling to stay afloat.”

According to the statement, “The Reality of Flour Pricing as of today, December 16, 2025, the price of a 50kg bag of wheat flour is between N55,000 and N62,000(depending on the brand and where you’re buying from) significantly higher than the fabricated figures circulating online. While some flour millers recently announced a marginal price reduction of approximately N2,000, this is a “drop in the ocean” compared to the overall production deficit”.

“Mathematically, a N2,000 reduction on a bag of flour translates to about N20 saving on the family sized loaf. This small margin is immediately swallowed by the skyrocketing costs of other essential inputs such as yeast, improver, margarine and preservative”.

The General Secretary also revealed what he called “The “Hidden” Costs of Your Daily Bread” . He said, “Needless to say, that besides flour, there are other various ingredients required for operational cost and processes in bread. PBAN members are currently battling a “perfect storm” of economic pressures that make a price reduction impossible at this time,”

He also emphasized the cost of electricity and the diesel required to power industrial ovens and generators, adding that 90% of baking machinery are imported. The replacement cost of equipment

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and repairs had increased tremendously in the past few years.

“We are facing unprecedented expenses in fueling and maintaining distribution vehicles to get bread to your neighbourhoods amidst deteriorating road networks. In compliance with the new National Minimum Wage of N70,000, our wage bills have increased significantly. We choose to pay our staff fairly rather than shut down. Bakers are currently burdened by a “spectrum of taxes” from federal, state, and local government agencies, many of which are overlapping and punitive.

“The Premium Breadmakers Association of Nigeria,PBAN, as a responsible association that is mindful of the shrink on disposable income of consumers, we have advised our members to maintain same quality standard and consider introducing bread variants in sizes that falls/fits into various consumer strata.

“We assure the general public that our members shall not hesitate to reduce the prices of bread the moment the cost dynamics and the Nigerian economy reflect a genuine and sustainable downward trend.

“Our primary goal remains the provision of quality, safe, and affordable bread that meets the highest regulatory standards,” he assured.

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FG recorded N30tn revenue shortfall in 2025 – Edun

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The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, opened up on Tuesday that the Federal Government recorded a significant revenue shortfall in the 2025 fiscal year.

He noted that while the Federal Government projected N40.8tn revenue for this year, it ended up making only N10.7tn.

Edun made the disclosure while appearing before the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper.

He recalled that the Federal Government had projected a revenue target of N40.8tn in 2025 to fund the N54.9tn “budget of restoration,” designed to stabilise the economy, secure peace and lay the foundation for long-term prosperity.

However, the minister said current fiscal performance shows that total revenue for the year is likely to end at about N10.7tn.

According to him, the sharp shortfall is largely attributable to weak oil and gas earnings, particularly Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax from oil and gas companies, alongside persistent underperformance across several revenue subheads.

“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7tn compared to the N40.8tn projection,” Edun told lawmakers.

The minister’s disclosure on Tuesday is in sharp contrast to the declaration by President Bola Tinubu in September that the Federal Government had already met its revenue target

“Today I can stand here before you to brag: Nigeria is not borrowing.

We have met our revenue target for the year and we met it in August,” Tinubu had told members of  The Buhari Organisation who visited him at the Presidential Villa in Abuja.

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However, speaking on Tuesday, the finance minister admitted that revenue shortfall harmpered the implementation of the N54.9tn 2025 budget.

He explained that although the Federal Government also raised about N14.1tn through borrowing, the combined inflows still fell far short of what was required to fully fund the 2025 budget.

Despite the revenue gap, Edun said the government had continued to meet critical obligations through what he described as prudent treasury management.

He noted that salaries, statutory transfers, as well as domestic and foreign debt service obligations, had been paid as and when due through “skillful, imaginative and creative handling” of available resources.

Providing further insight into expenditure performance, the minister said capital releases to ministries, departments and agencies in 2024 stood at N5.2tn out of a budgeted N7.1tn, representing 73 per cent performance.

He added that total capital expenditure, including multilateral and bilateral-funded projects, reached N11.1tn out of N13.7tn, or 84 per cent.

The minister cautioned that expenditure plans heavily tied to oil revenues must remain flexible, warning against committing the government to spending obligations based on projections that have consistently failed to materialise.

“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” he said.

Also speaking at the session, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, said the MTEF and FSP were developed through extensive consultations with key stakeholders, including government agencies, the private sector, civil society organisations and development partners

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Bagudu acknowledged that revenue assumptions remained a subject of intense debate within the Economic Management Team, explaining that while some members favoured conservative projections informed by historical performance, others argued for ambitious targets to compel revenue-generating agencies to improve efficiency and collection.

He disclosed that although the government retained an oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day for policy planning, a more cautious assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day was adopted for revenue calculations in the 2026 budget framework.

Earlier, the Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, James Faleke, called for a more critical and realistic approach to budget preparation, warning against bloated budgets that often face serious implementation challenges.

Nigeria’s revenue performance in 2025 has been undermined by a combination of structural and cyclical factors.

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