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Tax law: N5tn VAT windfall for states as new formula begins

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The 36 states of the federation are set to receive an estimated N5.07tn as their share of Value Added Tax in 2026, following the commencement of a new VAT sharing formula introduced under the National Tax Acts, findings by The PUNCH have shown.

This development is contained in the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper approved by the Federal Executive Council.

According to the fiscal framework, the implementation of the new National Tax Acts from January 2026 will reduce the Federal Government’s VAT share from 15 per cent to 10 per cent, while the states’ share rises from 50 per cent to 55 per cent, and Local Governments continue to receive 35 per cent.

According to the projections in the MTEF/FSP document, the Federal Government’s VAT allocation is expected to drop to N922.53bn in 2026, down from N1.04tn in 2025, even as the VAT pool itself grows significantly year on year.

The projected N922.5bn allocation to the Federal Government represents 10 per cent of the anticipated N9.23tn distributable VAT revenue for 2026, confirming the full implementation of the new formula.

Under the previous formula used in 2025, the Federal Government received 15 per cent of the VAT pool, which was projected at N6.95tn for that year. The difference in share means the Federal Government will now receive five percentage points less of a larger pool.

If the previous 15 per cent formula had been retained in 2026, the Federal Government’s VAT share would have amounted to approximately N1.38tn. With only 10 per cent allocated under the revised law, the Federal Government is projected to receive N922.5bn.

The difference between the two figures is N461.27bn, which represents what the Federal Government may forfeit to the states as a result of the revised allocation ratio, if the revenue target is met.

The five percentage point shift in VAT share from the Federal Government to states is projected to give states an additional N461.27bn in 2026, pushing their collective allocation to N5.07tn, up from N3.47tn in 2025.

The 2026 figure represents 55 per cent of the N9.23tn pool, compared to the 50 per cent share of the N6.95tn pool in 2025. Local Governments, whose VAT share remains unchanged at 35 per cent, are expected to collect N3.23tn in 2026, up from N2.43tn in 2025.

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The year-on-year growth in total VAT revenue, from N6.95tn to N9.23tn, provides some cushion to the Federal Government, even as it absorbs the loss in its percentage share. However, the data also makes it clear that the bulk of the VAT growth is now structurally flowing to subnational governments under the new tax law, which aims to deepen fiscal federalism.

Further projections in the fiscal document show that the VAT pool is expected to increase to N10.87tn in 2027 and N13.28tn in 2028. Applying the 10 per cent share, the Federal Government’s VAT revenue is projected to rise to N1.09tn in 2027 and N1.33tn in 2028.

These nominal increases reflect the expanding VAT base but do not reverse the structural shift in distribution. By contrast, the states’ 55 per cent share will yield N5.98tn in 2027 and N7.30tn in 2028, while Local Governments are projected to receive N3.81tn and N4.65tn respectively under their constant 35 per cent share.

The long-term trend indicates that state and local governments are now better positioned to benefit from rising VAT collections, especially as tax net expansion and digital enforcement continue to improve.

The VAT pool is only one segment of the total distributable public revenue. The main Federation Account pool—dominated by oil revenue, company income tax, and customs duties—is projected to decline sharply in 2026 before rebounding in subsequent years.

The main pool is expected to shrink from N60.26tn in 2025 to N41.06tn in 2026, representing a N19.2tn drop. The current revenue-sharing formula for the main pool gives the Federal Government 52.68 per cent, states 26.72 per cent, and local governments 20.60 per cent.

Based on these ratios, the Federal Government’s share is projected to decline from N31.74tn in 2025 to N21.63tn in 2026. This reflects a loss of about N10.1tn. State governments will see their share fall from N16.10tn to N10.97tn, while local governments will collect N8.46tn, down from N12.41tn.

Although the main pool is expected to improve slightly in subsequent years—rising to N45.67tn in 2027 and N50.90tn in 2028—the Federal Government’s earnings from this stream remain significantly below 2025 levels. Its share is projected to recover to N24.06tn in 2027 and N26.81tn in 2028.

Similarly, states are expected to receive N12.20tn and N13.60tn, while local governments would get N9.41tn and N10.48tn over the two years.

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Another key component of the distributable pool is stamp duty revenue, formerly the Electronic Money Transfer Levy. The distributable stamp duty pool is projected to rise from N228.85bn in 2025 to N456.07bn in 2026.

The formula for this stream mirrors the VAT structure: 10 per cent to the Federal Government, 55 per cent to states, and 35 per cent to local governments. This means the Federal Government will collect N45.61bn in 2026, up from N34.33bn in 2025.

States will receive N250.84bn, nearly doubling their previous year’s allocation of N114.43bn. Local Governments are projected to receive N159.62bn in 2026, compared to N80.10bn in 2025.

The rise is attributed to growth in electronic payment channels and the wider adoption of digital financial services, which are driving up transaction volumes and collections.

Projections for 2027 and 2028 suggest continued expansion in stamp duty revenue, reaching N579.82bn and N752.45bn, respectively. Of this, the Federal Government is expected to receive N57.98bn in 2027 and N75.24bn in 2028, while states will get N318.90bn and N413.85bn. Local Governments will be entitled to N202.94bn in 2027 and N263.36bn in 2028.

The new VAT formula and rising stamp duty revenues reflect a broader structural rebalancing of public finance in Nigeria, with states and local governments increasingly positioned as primary beneficiaries of consumption-driven taxes.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Nigeria Economic Summit Group warned that the Federal Government could face revenue shortfalls if it does not increase the value-added tax rate as part of the ongoing tax reform process.

The Chief Executive Officer of NESG, Dr Tayo Aduloju, made this statement during an interactive media session in Abuja. He emphasised that while reforms to the VAT system are essential, maintaining the current VAT rate without an increase could result in a significant loss of revenue for the government.

Speaking on the issue, Aduloju said, “Without those rate hikes, it means that the government might lose some revenue.” Aduloju explained that the current tax reform process must strike a balance between simplifying the tax system and increasing the VAT rate to maintain revenue stability.

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According to him, simply reducing the number of taxes without adjusting the VAT rate could weaken the government’s revenue base.

Also, in its most recent Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria, the International Monetary Fund noted that although the recent tax reforms approved by the National Assembly and President Bola Tinubu represent a major step forward in modernising the VAT and Company Income Tax regimes, the choice to maintain the current VAT rate would lead to an immediate revenue shortfall.

It stated that the Federal Government may lose as much as 0.5 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product in revenue following its decision not to raise the VAT rate.

“The decision not to raise the VAT rate now is reasonable, given high poverty and food insecurity, and with the cash transfer system to support the most vulnerable households not yet fully rolled out. However, this will reduce consolidated government revenue by up to ½ per cent of GDP in the authorities’ estimates,” the report noted.

According to the Fund, unless alternative financing options are found, subnational governments may be forced to either scale back spending or ramp up their own revenue efforts.

The IMF, however, acknowledged the government’s justification for delaying a VAT hike, particularly at a time of worsening poverty and food insecurity.

Speaking recently at the launch of the BudgIT State of States 2025 Report in Abuja, where he delivered the keynote address, the Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, projected that states could earn more than N4tn annually from 2026 when new Value Added Tax reforms take effect.

He said, “With VAT reforms kicking in from 2026, states’ share will rise to 55 per cent. That could amount to over N4tn in 2026. The question is: will this money be spent, or will it be invested?”

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Oil cargoes meant for naira-for-crude deal supplied to Dangote – NNPC

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has insisted that it supplied all available crude oil cargoes allocated under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude initiative to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, saying there had been no withholding on its part.

The national oil company stated this even as a top management official of the Dangote Group disclosed exclusively to The PUNCH that the refinery was receiving just four million barrels of crude oil monthly under the arrangement, instead of about 13 million barrels envisaged after President Bola Tinubu’s 2024 directive.

The refinery had attributed its decision to switch from naira-denominated fuel sales to dollar transactions to the crude supply shortfall, saying it would also increase exports of refined petroleum products to earn foreign exchange.

Responding on Monday, the NNPC, through its spokesman, Andy Odeh, said the company had fully discharged its obligations under the naira-for-crude policy. “As a 7.25 per cent equity shareholder in Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, NNPC Limited has a direct and genuine interest in seeing the refinery operate at full capacity. That is not in dispute.

“What the figures being cited require is context. Under the naira-denominated crude supply arrangement, NNPC Limited has allocated 100 per cent of all available naira crude cargoes to DPRP in 2026 — there has been no withholding on our part. Actual off-take in any period is shaped by several variables: crude availability, nomination timelines, and the refinery’s own operational scheduling.

Odeh said the NNPC has met its obligations to the refinery, saying the two parties are resolving any existing gaps together. “NNPC Limited has met its 2026 supply obligations to the refinery. Our engagement with DPRP management remains constructive, and where any gaps exist, we are resolving them together — as the partners we are.

“A fully supplied, fully operational Dangote refinery serving the Nigerian market is an obligation NNPC Limited shares without reservation,” he added.

However, the Dangote Group maintained that the crude volumes supplied under the arrangement were inadequate to sustain naira-denominated fuel sales.

A top management official of the Dangote Group had told The PUNCH that crude supply under the naira-for-crude arrangement had been limited to just four million barrels monthly despite the increase in Nigeria’s crude oil production.

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The official, who pleaded anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the refinery was now set to export a larger percentage of its products in exchange for foreign exchange.

“Since the traders have brought lots of imported products to the market, we are focusing on exports. We can’t, and we shouldn’t be fighting against the government’s policies,” the source said.

Our correspondent told the official that exporting without adequately supplying the domestic market would not be good for the country, but he responded with a question: “Is issuing massive import licences and releasing forex for imports good for the country, when 45 per cent of our production can meet 100 per cent of the entire country’s requirements in terms of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel?”

When told that the NNPC said it had increased crude supply to the Dangote refinery, the official replied, “Do you think that they will keep quiet if we process the naira crude and export the products? We are getting just four million barrels monthly.”

With the sale of petrol in dollars to local marketers, the Dangote official disclosed that the refinery would now process whatever crude it receives under the naira arrangement and supply the equivalent refined products in naira to the Nigerian market through the NNPC.

“We will account for every barrel of crude we receive against the naira payment by supplying equivalent products in naira. We will do that through the NNPC. The NNPC buys a lot from us,” he said.

The refinery had maintained that the inability to secure the expected crude volumes under the naira-for-crude initiative compelled it to abandon naira-denominated fuel sales and adopt dollar pricing for petroleum products.

Last week, the refinery announced a new dollar-denominated pricing template, fixing the ex-depot price of petrol at $0.779 per litre, diesel at $1.087 per litre and aviation fuel at $0.942 per litre.

The move has drawn criticism from petroleum marketers, who warned that it could increase pressure on fuel prices, although the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority said the decision was consistent with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, which allows refiners to recover their costs.

Supply worsens

Meanwhile, petrol supply in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, worsened on Monday with the closure of some major filling stations in Abuja and a fresh increase in the pump price of petrol.

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Checks by one of our correspondents showed that some stations operated by NNPC Limited and MRS along the Airport Road Expressway were shut when visited on Monday.

At stations that were dispensing the product, petrol was being sold at between N1,250 and N1,280 per litre. Bovas sold petrol at N1,250 per litre, while Azman Filling Station at 6th Avenue dispensed the product at N1,280 per litre. Salbas also sold petrol at N1,280 per litre.

The development has further heightened concerns among motorists and other consumers over the rising cost and availability of petrol in the nation’s capital. For motorists in Abuja, Monday’s development meant longer searches for petrol, closed stations and prices as high as N1,280 per litre at outlets that had the product available.

Meanwhile, truck traffic has surged across major private petroleum depots in Lagos as marketers scramble for petrol supplies following the fifth consecutive day of suspended loading at Dangote Petroleum Refinery amid growing expectations that wholesale prices could rise when operations resume.

Expert reacts

Meanwhile, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Principal Facilitator at the FUPRE Energy Business School, Wumi Iledare, said the Dangote refinery’s decision to sell petrol in dollars should be viewed within the broader context of petroleum economics and Nigeria’s energy security rather than merely the currency in which products are priced.

According to Iledare, the move is a commercial response to the realities of the global oil market, where crude oil, the refinery’s major feedstock, is traded in United States dollars.

Iledare explained that pricing refined products in dollars enables the refinery to reduce its exposure to exchange rate volatility and provides greater revenue certainty, although it shifts part of the foreign exchange risk to fuel marketers and, ultimately, consumers, where the costs are passed on.

He stressed that the refinery’s dollar pricing would not automatically translate to higher fuel prices, noting that domestic petrol prices would instead become more closely tied to movements in international crude oil prices and the naira-dollar exchange rate.

“Does this necessarily mean higher fuel prices? Not necessarily. What it does mean is that domestic fuel prices become more closely linked to two key variables: international crude oil prices and the naira-dollar exchange rate. If crude prices rise or the naira weakens, pump prices are likely to increase. Conversely, if crude prices decline or the naira strengthens, consumers should also expect prices to adjust downward. That is how a market-oriented pricing system is expected to function,” he said.

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The petroleum expert maintained that despite concerns over dollar-denominated pricing, the Dangote refinery had strengthened Nigeria’s energy security by reducing dependence on imported petrol and improving the availability of petroleum products.

He, however, noted that domestic refining alone could not guarantee affordability, saying fuel prices would continue to depend on exchange rate stability, international crude prices, logistics costs and the level of competition in the downstream sector.

“The refinery has significantly improved the availability of petroleum products by reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported PMS. That alone makes the country less vulnerable to disruptions in international supply chains and enhances supply reliability.

“This is why I would say that Dangote Refinery can shield Nigeria more effectively from supply shocks than from price shocks. Domestic refining improves energy security, but it cannot completely insulate Nigeria from global petroleum market dynamics because crude oil still has an international opportunity cost, whether it is refined in Lagos, Rotterdam, or Houston,” he stated.

On the implications for the naira, Iledare argued that pricing petroleum products in dollars would not automatically weaken the local currency. “As for the impact on the naira, the answer is more nuanced than many assume. Dollar pricing by itself does not automatically weaken the naira. What matters is whether the arrangement increases or reduces Nigeria’s net demand for foreign exchange,” he said.

He urged policymakers to focus less on the currency in which petroleum products are priced and more on building an efficient and competitive downstream market.

“The real issue is therefore not the currency of pricing. The real issue is whether Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market satisfies the four tests of good public policy: efficiency, effectiveness, equity, and ethics. Those are the standards by which this development should be judged,” he added.

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143 firms battle for 50 oil blocks today; read details

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The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission will open the decisive commercial phase of the 2025 oil and gas licensing round on Tuesday (today), with 143 companies set to compete for 50 blocks across Nigeria’s major and emerging hydrocarbon basins.

The commercial bid conference, by invitation only, is scheduled to take place in Abuja. The development marks the latest stage in a licensing process that began in November 2025 and has attracted significant interest from companies seeking access to Nigeria’s upstream petroleum assets.

In a statement issued on Monday, the Head of Media and Corporate Communications at the NUPRC, Eniola Akinkuotu, said companies that successfully scaled the prequalification process had been notified and invited to physically attend the commercial bid conference.

According to the commission, the 50 blocks on offer cover a wide range of geological terrains and include 16 blocks in the Niger Delta Onshore, 18 in the Niger Delta Shallow Water and one in the Niger Delta Deep Offshore.

The assets also include three blocks in the Benin Basin Onshore, four in the Anambra Basin Onshore, four in the Chad Basin Onshore and four in the Benue Trough.

The statement read, “The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has invited qualified companies to the highly anticipated Commercial Bid Conference slated for July 21, 2026.

“These companies, which scaled through the transparent and rigorous process, have been notified and are expected to physically attend the Commercial Bid Conference taking place at the Conference Centre, Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja. Attendance is strictly by invitation.

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“On offer are 50 oil and gas blocks across diverse terrains: Niger Delta Onshore (16), Niger Delta Shallow Water (18), Niger Delta Deep Offshore (1), Benin Basin Onshore (3), Anambra Basin Onshore (4), Chad Basin Onshore (4) and Benue Trough (4).

“In line with the guidelines, the elements of the bid parameters include the signature bonus, the work programme commitment and commitment to performance security, culminating in a weighted technical and commercial score that will determine the winning bid.”

The spread of the blocks reflects the Federal Government’s effort to attract investment beyond the traditional Niger Delta producing areas and stimulate exploration in frontier basins with significant hydrocarbon potential.

The commercial bids will be assessed using key parameters, including signature bonus, work programme commitments and commitment to performance security. The parameters will be combined into a weighted technical and commercial score that will determine the successful bidders.

The commission said the companies invited to the conference had emerged from a transparent and rigorous prequalification process. The 2025 Licensing Round was first announced on November 11, 2025, in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021.

The bid portal was subsequently launched on December 1, 2025, to enable interested companies to register and participate in the process. A pre-bid conference was held on January 14, 2026, at Eko Hotels and Suites, Lagos, to explain the guidelines and procedures to registered bidders and other interested stakeholders.

The registration and submission of documents for prequalification closed on February 27, 2026, while the prequalification stage was completed on March 16, 2026.

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A total of 286 companies submitted applications for prequalification. Following the evaluation process, 196 companies were prequalified to proceed to the technical and commercial bidding phase.

The commission said 143 of the prequalified companies subsequently submitted a total of 200 bids for the available assets. These 143 companies are now expected to participate in the commercial bid conference on Tuesday.

The number of bids submitted indicates that some companies are competing for more than one block, further underscoring the level of interest generated by the licensing round.

The commercial bid conference is expected to provide the commission with an opportunity to formally evaluate and compare the financial and operational commitments of the qualified bidders.

The process is also expected to test the seriousness of investors by placing emphasis not only on the amount offered as signature bonus but also on the work programmes and financial guarantees required to develop the assets.

The 2025 bid round is taking place against the backdrop of the Federal Government’s efforts to increase crude oil and gas production, attract fresh investment into the upstream sector and unlock previously underdeveloped petroleum assets.

Nigeria has struggled for years to attract sufficient investment into exploration and production due to concerns over regulatory uncertainty, insecurity, ageing infrastructure, project delays and the high cost of operating in the upstream sector.

The NUPRC has, however, said recent reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act and improvements in the regulatory environment are aimed at creating a more predictable framework for investors.

The licensing round also comes as the commission seeks to increase production to support government revenue, strengthen energy security and provide the feedstock required by Nigeria’s expanding domestic refining industry.

See also  Dangote refinery raises $2.5bn, may go public August

The successful conclusion of the commercial bidding phase will therefore be closely watched by investors and industry stakeholders as a key test of the country’s ability to convert its petroleum resources into new exploration activity, production and economic value.

The commission’s invitation to 143 companies for the commercial bid conference represents the latest milestone in a process that began with 286 applications and has now narrowed the competition to the companies that submitted 200 bids for the 50 blocks on offer.

Following the commercial bid conference and the completion of the subsequent stages of the process, successful bidders are expected to emerge in line with the applicable rules and evaluation criteria for the 2025 Licensing Round.

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Reps member faces petition over alleged N19m travel debt

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A member of the House of Representatives representing Obudu/Bekwarra/Obanliku Federal Constituency of Cross River State, Peter Akpanke, has been petitioned over an alleged unpaid travel debt of more than N19.15m arising from the procurement and reissuance of international and local airline tickets.

The petition, addressed to the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission and obtained by our correspondent, was written by Ohanele Udokanmma, solicitor to Johnson Ugochukwu of Havilah Global Travels Limited, who accused the lawmaker of failing to settle outstanding payments despite repeated demands.

According to the petition, Akpanke engaged the travel agency on January 16, 2026, to procure three Business Class airline tickets to Rome for himself and two associates at a total cost of N24.48m.

The solicitor stated that the tickets were purchased with the agency’s funds at the request of the lawmaker. The petition further alleged that while in Rome on January 24, 2026, Akpanke requested the reissuance of the tickets for two of his companions at an additional cost of N5.79m.

It added that he subsequently requested the reissuance of another passenger’s ticket at a further cost of N1.52m. According to the petitioner, the total value of the international tickets rose to N31m.

The solicitor, however, acknowledged that the lawmaker made part payments, stating that he paid N10m before embarking on the trip and another N4m upon his return from Rome, bringing the total amount paid to N14m.

The petition stated, “The total amount our client received so far from Hon. Peter Akpanke was N14,000,000 with a balance of N17,794,468 from N31,000,000.”

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It also alleged that the travel agency later procured an additional local airline ticket for the lawmaker valued at N1.36m, which also remains unpaid. Cumulatively, comprising the outstanding international ticket balance and the local ticket, the petitioner claimed that Akpanke is indebted to the agency in the sum of N19,154,468.

The petition further alleged that all efforts to recover the debt had failed. The solicitor wrote, “Owing to the above facts, Hon. Peter Akpanke is now indebted to our client in the sum of N19,154,468.

“Our client has made repeated demands for the payment of these sums of money due to him as debt from Hon. Peter Akpanke, which he has refused, failed and neglected to pay, with the sole aim of not paying our client his money.”

The solicitor urged the authorities to investigate the matter, saying, “We hereby indulge you to please use your good office to investigate the matter such that justice should be done.”

When contacted, Akpanke denied owing Havilah Travels the N19.15m claimed in the petition, insisting that while he had an outstanding balance with the travel agency, the figure being circulated was false.

Speaking on the possible motive behind the petition, the lawmaker said, “If it is not politically motivated, if he has petitioned me to an anti-graft agency, why is he getting across to journalists again today?”

He added, “Number one, it’s a lie. I’m not owing Havilah Travels N19m. I’m having some balances to pay them, but it’s not up to N19m.”

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Akpanke argued that having an outstanding business obligation was not a criminal offence, stressing that commercial debts should not automatically be portrayed as wrongdoing.

“To owe somebody is not a crime, my brother. That’s business. If we did business and maybe I’m owing him, a lot of people are owing me too. I’m not saying I’m not owing him. He has petitioned me to an anti-graft agency. Why not allow them do their work now? Why are you engaging journalists again?” he said.

Rejecting suggestions that he had used his political position to avoid payment, the federal lawmaker maintained that he had enjoyed a longstanding business relationship with the travel agency.

“What has political power got to do with buying tickets? Is that the first time he is buying tickets for me? He has bought tickets for me worth over N100m. Maybe I stayed owing him for some time and it made him petition me. That man had no business doing that,” Akpanke said.

He further defended the practice of purchasing airline tickets on credit, saying, “Which law says you cannot buy tickets on credit? I don’t like blackmailing people because tomorrow is pregnant.”

While admitting that he had transacted with Havilah Travels, Akpanke insisted he had been making payments and could provide proof.

“I will not tell you that I didn’t do business with Havilah Travels. I did. And I’m not owing them N19 million. I’ve been paying. I can show you evidence of the last payment I made to him. So what is all that rubbish now? The person who introduced us together has even told him, ‘Don’t worry, I will bear the liabilities.’ So why is he going to journalists?” he said.

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He warned that he could also publicise his experience with the agency, adding, “I can equally blackmail them and let Nigerians know that when you do business with them, once you owe them, they begin to petition you to the EFCC and all those places. Has it ever stopped me from paying? I know that I have an obligation to pay him.”

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