The race to 2027 has begun, but within the Ondo APC, it is already turning into a battle of survival. Behind official assurances of unity lies a widening struggle for control, influence, and party tickets that could shape the state’s political direction long before the general election, writes PETER DADA

The Independent National Electoral Commission has scheduled political parties’ primaries for the 2027 general elections to hold between April 23 and May 30, 2026. The commission also directed parties to submit their digital membership registers at least 21 days before their respective primary dates—a process already underway.

In line with Section 84(2) of the Electoral Act 2026, political parties are required to adopt either direct primaries or the consensus method in selecting candidates for elective positions. This means all parties participating in the 2027 general elections must choose their flagbearers through one of the two approved modes.

Preparations have since gathered momentum, with aspirants declaring interest in presidential, governorship, National Assembly and state assembly contests. However, in Ondo State and seven other states with off-cycle governorship elections, only presidential, National Assembly and state assembly polls will be conducted.

In the Sunshine State, the All Progressives Congress remains the dominant political force, bolstered by a wave of defections from other parties. This dominance has fueled intense competition among aspirants, driven by the widespread belief that securing the party’s ticket significantly boosts chances of victory in the general election.

Despite this advantage, internal divisions persist within the party. Factions loyal to Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, Minister of Interior Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, and supporters of the late former governor Rotimi Akeredolu continue to jostle for influence. However, none of the groups has openly opposed the re-election bid of President Bola Tinubu, indicating a shared front at the national level despite underlying state-level tensions.

With political parties required to adopt either the consensus or direct primary mode, there are growing concerns among some aspirants that neither option may favour those outside the governor’s camp. As a result, several contenders—particularly serving members of the National and State Assemblies—have reportedly taken their battle to Abuja, seeking automatic tickets from the All Progressives Congress leadership, amid fears that the state-controlled process may work against them.

Apart from Jimoh Ibrahim, who has since secured a diplomatic appointment, other incumbent federal lawmakers from Ondo State are said to be intensifying lobbying efforts at the Presidential Villa and the party’s National Secretariat in a bid to secure endorsement over the state leadership.

Sources within the party also revealed that some aspirants, who are not current legislators, are being pushed forward by influential power brokers in Abuja, in some cases against the preference of Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa. The governor, it was gathered, is under increasing pressure to accommodate these interests despite having his own preferred candidates, particularly in the Ondo South Senatorial District.

The situation has reportedly heightened tensions within the party. At a recent APC stakeholders’ meeting held in Ore, Odigbo Local Government Area, supporters of various aspirants stormed the venue, apparently poised to resist any attempt by the governor to publicly endorse a preferred candidate. The meeting, which was presided over by Aiyedatiwa, could have degenerated into violence, but the governor refrained from naming any candidate.

Meanwhile, the Ondo South senatorial seat remains vacant following Ibrahim’s diplomatic appointment, with political actors awaiting the Independent National Electoral Commission to announce a date for a by-election.

A party source said the struggle over candidacy has become a major burden on the governor, noting that competing interests from Abuja have complicated his efforts to manage expectations.

The source said, “The issue of candidacy in the forthcoming primary has become a burden on the governor, although he has his own preferred candidates but some aspirants are being given to him by order from Abuja, he has no option than to accept them. This certainly nullifies whoever he had promised automatic ticket. One thing that is sure is that many of those national and state assembly members may not get the party ticket, as many were cede to him (governor), being the party leader in the state , that’s why all of them are rushing to Abuja if they can get the ticket.

“Second thing is that some of the aggrieved members and aspirants are ready planning to leave the party or involve in anti-party activities if the choosing of the candidate is based on personal vendetta rather than popularity of the aspirants at their respective senatorial districts or federal constituencies.”

However, concerns persist that some of the governor’s preferred aspirants lack widespread support among party members and constituents in their respective senatorial districts and federal constituencies. Analysts warn that imposing unpopular candidates could prove costly for the All Progressives Congress in the general election, especially as some well-known aspirants have reportedly vowed to contest and win, with or without the party’s ticket.

Findings further indicate that the lingering disunity within the party has led Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa to sideline certain members perceived as political adversaries. Those most affected are loyalists of the Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, as well as supporters of the late former governor, Rotimi Akeredolu. Aspirants within these camps are said to be mobilising for a showdown, holding frequent strategy meetings across Ondo State.

There are also growing fears of a turbulent post-primary period, with observers warning that unresolved grievances could undermine the party’s chances in the general election. Historically, internal crises within the APC have created openings for opposition parties in the state.

Last week’s meetings between Bola Tinubu, the leadership of the National Assembly, and APC governors on the forthcoming primaries—where governors were empowered to oversee the process in their respective states—appear to have dealt a major blow to the ambitions of many anti-Aiyedatiwa APC members in Ondo State. National Assembly members who had relied on securing automatic tickets from Abuja have also been visibly disappointed. This development has disrupted several political calculations and permutations ahead of the primaries.

A reliable party source indicated that the situation has become less complex for Governor Aiyedatiwa. Although some aspirants were allegedly imposed on him by powerful interests in Abuja, he may still find ways to support his preferred candidates during the primaries, regardless of the mode of the exercise. However, this development carries the risk of deepening divisions within the party, as aggrieved aspirants and members of the anti-Aiyedatiwa faction may resort to anti-party activities during the general election unless decisive reconciliation efforts are undertaken by the governor and party leadership. To avert this, Governor Aiyedatiwa and the new party chairman, Mr. Kolawole Babatunde, need to initiate genuine reconciliation moves.

The source further revealed that the governor has preferred candidates, particularly in the Ondo South Senatorial District—his home district—whom he intends to support for party tickets. However, upon learning of this, some aspirants from the district, along with hundreds of their supporters, reportedly stormed the APC stakeholders’ meeting held on Sunday, April 19, in Ore, Odigbo Local Government Area. The meeting, presided over by the governor, nearly turned violent as protesters warned against the endorsement of any aspirant as the governor’s preferred candidate ahead of the primaries. Tensions were only defused when the governor refrained from naming any candidate.

Meanwhile, the Ondo South senatorial seat remains vacant following the diplomatic appointment of its former occupant, Jimoh Ibrahim. Political contenders are now awaiting the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to announce a date for the bye-election.

According to the source:

“The issue of candidacy in the forthcoming primaries has become a burden for the governor. While he has his preferred candidates, others are being imposed on him from Abuja, leaving him with little choice but to accommodate them. The meeting convened by President Tinubu with governors and National Assembly members has further strengthened the governors’ influence over the primaries. This effectively nullifies any prior promises of automatic tickets to federal lawmakers, meaning many current legislators may not secure party nominations.

“Another implication is that aggrieved aspirants and party members are already considering defecting or engaging in anti-party activities if candidate selection is perceived to be driven by personal interests rather than popularity within their constituencies.”

There are also concerns that some of the governor’s preferred aspirants lack widespread support among party members and constituents. Imposing such candidates could undermine the party’s chances in the general election, especially as some popular but sidelined aspirants have reportedly vowed to contest—and potentially win—even without the APC ticket.

Further findings suggest that internal divisions within the party have intensified, with the governor allegedly sidelining members perceived as political opponents. Those most affected are individuals loyal to certain ministers and to the late Rotimi Akeredolu. Aspirants within this group are reportedly preparing for a political showdown, holding frequent strategy meetings across the state.

Many observers fear that the Ondo APC may face a turbulent post-primary crisis. Without effective conflict resolution, the party risks entering the general election deeply divided, which could significantly weaken its chances at the polls.

A similar scenario played out ahead of the 2019 general elections, when aggrieved party members defected or engaged in anti-party activities, leading to electoral losses in some senatorial districts and federal constituencies. Many believe a repeat is possible, as some disaffected aspirants are already exploring alternative political options.

Despite these concerns, Governor Aiyedatiwa sought to calm tensions at a recent stakeholders’ meeting by avoiding any public endorsement of candidates. Instead, he appealed for unity and party loyalty, urging aspirants to prioritise collective interest over personal ambition.

He further encouraged members to remain committed regardless of the outcome of the primaries, stressing that political success often requires patience and perseverance.

He said, “I am aware that many of you have individual ambitions — whether for the State House of Assembly or the National Assembly—but there is a paramount collective goal, and that is the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027. I therefore urge you to remain loyal and committed to the party, whether you win or not. There is always a time for everyone. Only one person can emerge at a time.

“There was a time I contested for the House of Representatives and did not get it. I also contested for the Senate; although I won the primary election conducted in the state, the party’s national leadership later granted an automatic ticket to the incumbent. Yet, I did not leave the party. In 2016, I was shortlisted for the deputy governorship ticket but was not eventually selected. Still, I remained a committed member. Today, I am the governor. So, there is time for everyone.”

In the same vein, the Director of Media and Publicity of the APC in Ondo State, Steve Otaloro, downplayed fears of a post-primary crisis, assuring that whichever mode is adopted for the forthcoming primaries will be credible and widely accepted.

According to him, the party has established internal mechanisms to ensure a smooth and transparent process.

“The mode of primary for the APC in Ondo State will ultimately be decided through the party’s internal processes, in line with constitutional provisions and guidelines. What is critical is not necessarily the method adopted—whether direct primary or consensus—but the credibility of the process,” he said.

Otaloro stressed that both options are constitutionally recognised and must be implemented in a transparent, inclusive, and fair manner to all aspirants.

“Once the process is open and credible, it will naturally command acceptance among stakeholders and party faithful, thereby reducing the likelihood of rancour. The APC in Ondo State has the institutional capacity and leadership maturity to manage this effectively,” he added.

“Our collective priority is to ensure unity, uphold democratic principles, and strengthen the party ahead of the forthcoming electoral engagements.”

However, a group within the party, the Progressive Network for Tinubu, has warned against the imposition of unpopular candidates, insisting that the consensus option must reflect the will of the people.

The group’s Director-General, Olumide Obadele, said internal selection processes must prioritise popularity and grassroots support to avoid electoral setbacks.

“I believe strongly that the consensus approach, if properly applied, should produce the most popular candidate. Imposing an unpopular candidate could weaken the party’s chances at the polls,” he said, warning that voters are increasingly driven by popularity rather than financial influence.

He expressed confidence, however, that party leaders would not undermine the process by imposing candidates lacking public support.

“I can tell you, for free, that the consensus approach is the best approach we can use in politics. The indirect approach, for me, is too expensive. If you don’t have the funds or deep pockets, you cannot pursue it.

“But with the consensus idea, the most popular candidate emerges. Nobody will put forward an unpopular candidate because that would lead to failure in the election. It is a game of popularity. In the past, someone who was not popular but had deep pockets could succeed. But now, it is a game of popularity.”

Also weighing in, political scientist Muyiwa Aloba urged Governor Aiyedatiwa to tread carefully in managing the party’s internal tensions.

Aloba noted that while internal disputes were common in political parties, effective conflict management remained critical to electoral success.

“The only problem human beings have is that people don’t learn from history. What is happening now in Ondo APC is not new. Similar issues occurred during the administration of Rotimi Akeredolu, and poor crisis management contributed to the party’s losses in the 2019 elections,” he said.

He advised the governor to adopt an inclusive approach, accommodate diverse interests within the party, and prioritise unity ahead of the 2027 general elections.

“Conflicts are part of politics, but how they are managed will determine the party’s success,” he added.

“I will only advise the governor to learn from history, I will advise him, as a leader of the party in the state, to forget the past, accommodate and manage every interest and groups in the party if he wants the party to win well in the next year general election.”

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Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has cautioned against moves to suspend political campaigns in parts of Northern Nigeria, warning that such a step could undermine constitutional rights and deepen fears of disenfranchisement amid worsening insecurity.

Atiku’s reaction follows reports that the Senate may be weighing the suspension of political activities in eight states grappling with escalating violence, including Borno, Benue and Plateau.

In a statement issued on Sunday by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, the presidential aspirant on the platform of the African Democratic Congress described the development as deeply troubling, noting that while insecurity remained a grave national challenge, it must not be used to justify restrictions on democratic participation.

He said, “Let it be clearly stated that the right to vote and participate in the electoral process is fundamental and cannot be abridged under any guise.

“Any attempt—whether deliberate or disguised—to suppress political activities in parts of Northern Nigeria raises legitimate concerns about disenfranchisement.”

Atiku recalled earlier intelligence suggesting possible efforts to weaken electoral participation in key northern states, warning that recent developments appeared to reinforce such concerns.

“This is not merely about campaigns; it is about representation, inclusion, and the integrity of our democratic process.

“You cannot cure insecurity by silencing the voices of the people. Democracy must not become a casualty of government failure,” he added.

The former vice president stressed that citizens in the North, like their counterparts across the country, deserved both security and full democratic participation, insisting that neither should come at the expense of the other.

He added that it remained the responsibility of the government to guarantee security, just as citizens must be allowed to freely exercise their civic rights without fear or intimidation.

“At a time when citizens are already battling hardship and insecurity, the least the government can do is to guarantee their right to be heard, not to restrict it.

“Any policy that creates the impression of targeted exclusion will only deepen distrust and national division,” he warned.

Atiku further called on the Independent National Electoral Commission, security agencies and the administration of President Bola Tinubu to clarify their positions and reassure Nigerians that no part of the country would be denied its constitutional rights.

The debate over suspending political activities comes amid renewed anxiety within the National Assembly over the deteriorating security situation, particularly in the North-East and parts of the North-West and North-Central.

Last week, the senator representing Bauchi Central, Abdul Ningi, urged the Senate to consider far-reaching emergency measures, including halting political activities in frontline states most affected by insurgency and banditry.

Raising a point of order during plenary, Ningi warned that the worsening violence demands urgent and decisive action beyond routine deliberations.

He said, “Mr President, we cannot continue to think that because we are in Abuja, therefore this thing (insecurity) does not affect us.

“One of the things that we must do, and I want us to take this issue very seriously, is either to suspend all political activities across this country or look at the frontline states of Borno, Plateau, Bauchi, Benue, Niger, Sokoto, Kebbi and some parts of Kano.

“We need to suspend activities in these states until we are sufficiently certain that the insecurity challenges are over.

“This is because we are not dealing with this insecurity issue at all. And I am not blaming anybody. We cannot come here every time to lament.”

Ningi’s proposal reflects mounting concern over a resurgence of attacks by Boko Haram insurgents, including coordinated assaults on military formations and renewed threats against rescue operations for abducted civilians.