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Oil Price Hits $120 As OPEC+ Raises Output By 206,000 Bpd

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Eight members of OPEC+ have agreed to increase oil output quotas for May by 206,000 barrels per day, even as ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt global supply.

It was reports that the decision was reached during a virtual meeting held on Sunday, according to a statement released by the oil alliance.

However, despite the announced increase, industry observers say the additional supply may remain largely theoretical due to production constraints affecting key member countries.

Findings indicate that the modest quota increase may not translate into actual output, as major oil producers are grappling with disruptions linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Several top producers have seen their capacity hampered, with infrastructure damage and security concerns preventing meaningful increases in supply.

Meanwhile, a separate panel of the alliance, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, also met on Sunday and raised alarm over persistent attacks on oil infrastructure.

The committee noted that such attacks are “expensive and time-consuming to repair,” warning that they continue to weigh heavily on global supply.

The situation is further complicated by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, widely regarded as the world’s most critical oil transit route.

The waterway has effectively remained shut since late February due to the conflict, significantly cutting exports from key producers including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq.

Although Iran stated on Saturday that Iraq could freely transit the strait, and shipping data showed a tanker carrying Iraqi crude passing through on Sunday, uncertainty persists.

“It remains to be seen if more vessels will take the risk involved,” a source familiar with the development said.

See also  Rising fuel prices: NNPC may supply foreign crude to Dangote refinery

Global crude oil prices have surged to nearly $120 per barrel, marking a four-year high, as supply disruptions continue to tighten the market.

The spike has triggered a ripple effect, with transport fuel prices rising sharply and putting pressure on consumers and businesses worldwide. Governments are also beginning to take steps aimed at conserving dwindling supplies.

Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the situation persists. Investment bank JPMorgan Chase projected that oil prices may exceed $150 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz extend into mid-May.

Despite the quota adjustment, the additional 206,000 barrels per day accounts for less than two per cent of the estimated supply lost due to the Hormuz closure.

Sources within the alliance told Reuters that the move primarily signals readiness to ramp up production once conditions stabilise and the key shipping route reopens.

Sanctions, Infrastructure Damage Hinder Output

Beyond the Gulf region, other producers are also facing challenges.

Russia, for instance, has been unable to increase production due to Western sanctions and damage to oil infrastructure linked to its ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

The scale of the current disruption is unprecedented, with estimates suggesting that between 12 million and 15 million barrels per day, up to 15 per cent of global supply, have been cut off from the market.

This marks one of the largest oil supply shocks on record.

It was reports that the May increase mirrors the 206,000 bpd adjustment agreed for April during the alliance’s previous meeting on March 1, just as the conflict began to impact oil flows.

See also  Google pledges N3bn to boost Nigeria’s AI capacity

OPEC+, which comprises 22 member countries, has in recent years relied on a core group of eight nations to make monthly production decisions.

These countries had collectively increased output by about 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025 before pausing adjustments from January to March 2026.

With the next meeting scheduled for May 3, attention will be on whether the alliance can respond effectively to the evolving crisis.

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FG tells marketers to reflect global oil price drop in petrol prices

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Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri, has directed petroleum marketers to immediately reflect the recent decline in global oil prices by reducing the pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and other petroleum products.

Lokpobiri gave the directive at the 2026 Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) General Counsel and Legal Advisers Forum on Monday in Abuja.

The forum is themed “Beyond Compliance Certainty and Investment Confidence in Nigeria’s Petroleum Sector.”

Lokpobiri said that with the de-escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States, there was an expectation that the prices of PMS and other petroleum products would be adjusted downward accordingly.

He expressed concern that the anticipated reduction had yet to be reflected at the pumps, stressing that while market forces under the deregulated regime would ultimately restore price equilibrium, marketers should not exploit the situation to make excessive profits.

The minister said the regulator had a statutory responsibility to ensure that deregulation did not become an avenue for profiteering, adding that this must be carried out in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA 2021).

“For too long, the dominant question in our regulatory conversations has been: are operators complying? That question matters. It will always matter. But it is no longer sufficient.

“The more consequential question today is this: are our regulatory authorities doing their job? Is it clear, consistent and predictable enough to give investors the confidence they need to commit capital, not just for one cycle, but for the long term?

See also  Ogun debt hits N494bn, IGR rises above N240bn

“Compliance is the foundation. Regulatory certainty is the ceiling we must now be building toward,” he said.

Lokpobiri, while urging marketers to comply with the principles of fair pricing to ensure that consumers benefit from the prevailing market realities, urged regulators to move beyond compliance by promoting regulatory certainty to attracting long-term investments.

“The sector is now fully deregulated, a bold reform that President Bola Tinubu had the courage to implement. That decision paved way for the operationalisation of the Dangote Refinery and other refinery projects currently underway.

“It also ensured that artificial scarcity has become a thing of the past.

“You can attest to the fact that since 2023 there has been availability of products in country even with the recent challenges posed by the US-Israeli /Iranian conflict.

“Beyond allowing prices to be determined by market forces, the question is: what is the regulator doing to ensure that consumers receive the correct quantity of product?

“When someone pays for 10 litres of PMS, they should receive exactly 10 litres, not less,” he warned.

Lokpobiri said while compliance with regulations remained fundamental, investors were increasingly interested in jurisdictions with clear, consistent and predictable regulatory frameworks.

He described general counsel as strategic partners whose responsibilities extend beyond interpreting laws to shaping investment decisions, improving regulatory design and supporting national development.

According to him, legal advisers should provide constructive feedback whenever regulations or guidelines create uncertainty that could discourage investment.

He said Nigeria’s petroleum sector was entering a new phase characterised by expanding domestic refining capacity, increased private sector participation and emerging opportunities across the midstream and downstream segments.

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According to him, attracting investments will require policy consistency, transparent regulation, efficient dispute resolution and strong collaboration among government, regulators, industry operators and legal practitioners.

He expressed confidence that the recommendations from the forum would contribute to improving governance, regulatory certainty and investment confidence in Nigeria’s petroleum sector. (NAN)

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Olodo uprising: Tinubu aide faults critics of First Lady’s Akara, Kuli kuli comment

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The Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu on Social Media, Dada Olusegun, has defended First Lady Oluremi Tinubu’s recent empowerment of micro-traders, saying criticisms of the initiative are driven by ignorance of her record and the role of Nigeria’s informal economy.

In a statement shared on Monday, Olusegun described the backlash over the First Lady’s focus on traders such as akara and kulikuli sellers as a “performative circus of selective amnesia.”

He argued that critics had ignored the numerous interventions carried out by the Renewed Hope Initiative across healthcare, women’s empowerment, support for military widows and persons living with disabilities.

The First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu
The First Lady of Nigeria, Senator Oluremi Tinubu

According to him, the First Lady’s interventions extend beyond petty traders, citing her donation of ₦1bn to the National Cancer Fund for cervical cancer screening and another ₦1bn for tuberculosis diagnostic equipment in Abuja in 2025.

He also referenced the disbursement of ₦250,000 each to 1,709 widows and orphans of fallen military personnel in 2023, as well as ₦200,000 business grants to persons living with disabilities across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Olusegun further highlighted the Renewed Hope Initiative’s partnership with the Tony Elumelu Foundation, which targeted 18,500 women nationwide with ₦50,000 grants and the distribution of equipment, including industrial grinding machines, freezers and generators.

He further criticised what he described as an “Olodo uprising” on social media, accusing critics of reacting to trends without researching the facts.

“This entire controversy perfectly mirrors what is now happening with the broader ‘Olodo uprising” across our social platforms. We live in an era where people jump on trending hashtags and soundbites without dedicating a single minute to researching context. Memes are manufactured in seconds; accurate history takes time to read.

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“When the critics are done making their superficial memes, writing cynical captions, and circulating ignorant narratives, the reality on the ground will remain unchanged. They would be better off advising their constituents to find credible means to key into these ongoing government initiatives,” he stated.

He maintained that empowering small-scale traders should not be viewed as “weaponising poverty.”

“According to various economic metrics, the informal sector contributes over 50 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP and accounts for over 80 per cent of employment. The akara fryer, the kulikuli processor, and the petty trader are not just marginal actors; they are the literal shock absorbers of our micro-economy.

“When you give a micro-grant or operational tools to an akara seller, you are not validating poverty; you are reducing immediate operational capital friction, securing food chains at the grassroots, and expanding household income. Mocking these initiatives as ‘petty’ shows a deep-seated contempt for the actual working class of Nigeria,” he said.

Olusegun also defended the political value of grassroots empowerment, saying such interventions create trust among beneficiaries.

He cited the TraderMoni and MarketMoni programmes introduced during former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration under then Vice President Yemi Osinbajo as examples of initiatives that directly impacted market traders.

“The opposition often wonders why the poorest segments of the population continually familiarise themselves with the All Progressives Congress during elections. The answer is simple: the party meets them at their point of immediate need,” he said.

Olusegun added that Tinubu’s record as former First Lady of Lagos State, a three-term senator and now First Lady of the Federation showed a consistent commitment to structured empowerment programmes.

See also  Rising fuel prices: NNPC may supply foreign crude to Dangote refinery

“She will not be distracted by digital static from doing what she has mastered over decades: empowering the poorest among us, one structured intervention at a time,” he said.

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Dangote refinery imports first UAE crude cargoes

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The Dangote Refinery has purchased two cargoes of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates, marking its first-ever procurement of Middle Eastern crude as it expands its feedstock sources amid persistent domestic supply constraints.

According to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the two cargoes will be the first sourced by the 700,000-barrels-per-day refinery from any Middle Eastern supplier, signalling a shift from its traditional reliance on Nigerian, African, and United States crude grades.

The report said the purchases followed the resumption of oil exports from the Middle East after the United States and Iran reached an interim peace agreement that restored confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The refinery, designed primarily to process Nigeria’s light sweet crude, has increasingly diversified its crude slate as operations ramp up. S&P Global reported that an agreement between the refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company had guaranteed the supply of between 13 and 15 cargoes of Nigerian crude monthly in naira, helping the refinery reduce its foreign exchange exposure.

However, the arrangement has faced challenges due to inadequate crude availability and operational issues at export terminals. According to the report, Dangote Refinery Chief Executive Officer David Bird had previously disclosed that these constraints had compelled the company to seek additional crude sources outside Nigeria.

The report added that the refinery’s expansion plans would further increase its crude requirements. Dangote plans to double the refinery’s processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2028, a level that would enable it to process about 80 per cent of Nigeria’s recent crude oil production in a single day.

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Speaking earlier this year, Bird said the refinery intended to increase the share of heavier crude grades in its feedstock mix. “We definitely want to heavy up the barrel,” Bird said in April.

He added, “We will be in the crude blending game. So you can easily imagine at 1.4 million b/d we could process 30 per cent Middle Eastern grades on each train.”

According to S&P Global, the refinery has been broadening the range of crude grades it processes as part of its ambition to operate as a fully merchant refinery. The report noted that in 2025, about 70 per cent of the refinery’s crude imports came from Nigeria, while 24 per cent originated from the United States.

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