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NISO cuts transmission losses to 7% from 10% in one year

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The Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Independent System Operator, Abdu Bello, has disclosed that Nigeria’s power sector was losing between N5bn and N8bn monthly to transmission inefficiencies, even as he revealed that targeted interventions by the operator have begun to cut losses and improve grid stability.

Bello made this known on Wednesday during the organisation’s first anniversary celebration held at its headquarters in Utako, Abuja, where he presented a detailed scorecard of reforms and operational milestones recorded since its establishment.

Recall that NISO was officially created on April 30, 2024, by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission following the unbundling of the Transmission Company of Nigeria under the Electricity Act, 2023.

Speaking on one of the most pressing challenges inherited by the operator, Bello said the transmission loss factor at inception was alarmingly high, with severe financial implications for the power sector.

“One of the greatest problems we encountered at the inception of NISO was that we recorded a very high transmission loss factor. At some point, it was close to 10 per cent, costing about N5bn to N8bn monthly,” he said.

He, however, noted that deliberate operational measures have started yielding results.

“We are working on it, and we have reduced it to about 7.05 per cent at the moment. We are also working to reduce it further to about five or six per cent so that we will meet the target of the regulators,” Bello added.

Adopting a broader tone, the NISO boss said the past year had been defined by institution-building, system stabilisation, and market reforms aimed at repositioning Nigeria’s electricity sector.

“Today, we are not just celebrating one year of existence; we are reflecting on one year of deliberate effort, institutional progress, and measurable impact,” he said.

He explained that NISO was established to function as an independent system operator with responsibility for system operations, market administration, planning, and enforcement of grid codes and market rules.

“This mandate is central to Nigeria’s power sector reform. It is about ensuring that our grid is stable, our market is credible, and our planning is coordinated so that electricity can effectively support economic growth,” Bello stated.

On institutional development, he said the organisation had prioritised governance and coordination across the electricity value chain.

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“We have established governance and management structures at both board and executive levels, and strengthened coordination from generation through transmission to distribution and eligible customers,” he said.

A major highlight of the address was NISO’s push to digitise grid operations through advanced monitoring systems.

Bello disclosed that the operator is accelerating the deployment of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition/Energy Management Systems to enable real-time grid visibility.

“On grid visibility, monitoring, and control, a key priority has been improving our ability to see, understand, and manage the national grid in real time. In this regard, we have accelerated the implementation of the SCADA EMS project, working very closely with the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, NERC, to ensure that the grid monitoring infrastructure SCADA EMS tool, which is a veritable tool for the system operations, is completed and operational.

“It’s a work in progress and we are seeing progress on this. We have also reached advanced stages in the deployment of the telemetry system across the grid at the electricity trading points,” he said.

He added that the organisation was also deploying telemetry systems and Internet-of-Things-based metering infrastructure across generation units, transmission lines, and substations.

“By the time we complete this project, hopefully before the end of the year, we shall have full visibility of the national grid from generation through transmission, substations, and distribution,” he stated.

According to him, the initiative would enable near-real-time electricity market settlements and significantly improve operational efficiency.

“Currently, we operate largely manually, but with telemetry, we can achieve hourly settlements or even real-time market operations,” he added.

Bello also revealed that NISO has intensified efforts to tackle grid instability and recurring system collapses through technical reforms and stricter compliance enforcement.

“Thank God, the regulators, NERC, have already ordered the distribution companies to install IoT meters on their 33 kV and 11 kV feeders, which is an ongoing project. So at the end of this project, we shall have end-to-end visibility of the system from generation through transmission, distribution, and eligible customers.

“Thereby, enabling our system operators and market operators to have visibility on a real-time basis and enhancing effective management of the grid. With that, our efficiency and effectiveness in managing the grid will be tremendously enhanced. These efforts are laying the foundation for full visibility and a data-driven grid and market operations environment.

“At the core of our mandate is ensuring a stable and resilient grid. We are working closely with generation companies and other stakeholders to implement the free-governor mode of operation of generating units to improve frequency response,” he said.

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He noted that compliance with this directive has already improved grid frequency stability.

“Substantially, a number of generating units have complied, and we have seen improvements in system frequency and overall grid reliability,” he said, while noting that enforcement actions were ongoing against defaulters.

He further disclosed plans to introduce grid “islanding”, a strategy that segments the national grid to prevent widespread outages.

“We are developing grid islanding to enhance resilience. Disturbances in one segment will not cascade across the entire grid. This will significantly reduce the risk of total system collapse,” he explained.

On market operations, Bello said NISO has taken steps to improve transparency, enforce compliance with market rules, and strengthen coordination among industry players.

“We have enhanced monitoring and enforced compliance with the grid code, market rules, and metering standards. We are also upgrading market systems to enable real-time operations and improved analytics,” he said.

He added that NISO is playing a central role in coordinating emerging state electricity markets following recent sector reforms.

“With states now able to establish their own electricity markets, there must be coordination between state systems and the national wholesale market. That interface is being managed by NISO,” he said.

The NISO boss also linked recent fluctuations in power generation to gas supply challenges, stressing the need for stronger coordination between the power and gas sectors.

“You will have noticed a slight drop in generation capability recently due to gas supply constraints. This coordination between the power sector and gas suppliers is very critical,” he said.

He assured that regulators and stakeholders are working to address the issue and prevent future disruptions.

In a significant development, Bello disclosed that Nigeria has achieved trial synchronisation of its national grid with the West African power system, opening new opportunities for cross-border electricity trade.

“On November 8, 2025, we successfully synchronised the Nigerian grid with the West African power pool, positioning Nigeria for enhanced regional power trade,” he said.

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He explained that the integration would allow Nigeria to export excess power and earn foreign exchange.

“This gives us a bidirectional opportunity to either supply power to the region or import when necessary. It also creates the potential to earn hard currency, which can be reinvested to improve domestic capacity. By

These interventions are contributing to improving system discipline and reliability together. On electricity market development and strengthening, we have made deliberate efforts to strengthen market credibility and transparency.

“Over the past year, we have enhanced monitoring and enforced compliance with the market rules, grid code, and metering standards. We have also improved coordination among market participants to support orderly market operations.

“We have initiated upgrades to market management systems to enable real-time operations, efficient settlement, and improved analytics. We have strengthened data transparency to support informed decision-making in the market space,” he added.

NISO was carved out of the Transmission Company of Nigeria as part of sweeping reforms introduced by the Electricity Act, 2023, to liberalise and decentralise Nigeria’s power sector.

The reform seeks to separate system operations from transmission ownership, improve transparency, and create a more competitive electricity market.

“As we enter our second year, our focus is clear—to translate these foundations into measurable
sector-wide impact. Our priorities include: deepening grid visibility and real-time operational control, strengthening system reliability and resilience, enhancing transparency and efficiency in market operations, enhancing data-driven and technology anchored system planning, supporting coordinated development of national and subnational electricity markets, advancing renewable integration and energy transition initiatives, continuing to invest in staff welfare and institutional capacity and ultimately, our success will be measured by three outcomes: a stable grid, a credible market, and strong investor confidence,” the MD concluded.

Despite these reforms, Nigeria’s power sector continues to face structural challenges, including transmission constraints, gas supply shortages, liquidity issues, and weak infrastructure.

NISO’s first-year performance signals a shift towards data-driven grid management and coordinated planning, although sustained investment and policy consistency will be required to deliver long-term stability.

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Nigeria crude output misses OPEC quota eighth straight month

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Nigeria’s average daily crude production is still below the 1.5-million-barrel quota set for the country by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

According to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report released in April, Nigeria’s crude production in March was 1.38 mbpd. While there was a 69,000 bpd increase from the 1.31 mbpd recorded in February, the figure is still 117,000 bpd below the OPEC quota.

The figures for February indicate a month-on-month decline of 146,000 barrels per day, widening the country’s shortfall from its OPEC production allocation. This is the eighth consecutive month the country has failed to meet the OPEC quota since July 2025.

It could be recalled that although Nigeria recorded a marginal improvement in January, when production rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459 mbpd, the rebound was short-lived as output fell significantly in February.

Earlier data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission had also shown that crude oil production weakened at the end of 2025. Production declined from 1.436 mbpd in November 2025 to 1.422 mbpd in December, before recovering slightly in January.

In 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell below its OPEC quota in nine months of the year, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July. Nigeria opened 2025 strongly, producing 1.54 mbpd in January, about 38,700 barrels per day above its OPEC allocation.

However, production slipped below the quota in February at 1.47 mbpd and weakened further in March to 1.40 mbpd, marking one of the widest shortfalls during the year.

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Although output recovered modestly in April (1.49 mbpd) and May (1.45 mbpd), Nigeria remained below its OPEC ceiling until June, when production edged up to 1.51 mbpd, slightly exceeding the quota.

The country sustained the momentum in July with 1.51 mbpd before falling below the benchmark again in subsequent months.

Our correspondent reports that the figures recorded in the first quarter of 2026 are below the government’s budget benchmark.

Recently, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission said oil production (crude and condensate) reached 1.8 mbpd in March.

However, an official of the commission told The PUNCH that the recovery started in mid-March after all assets on turnaround maintenance resumed operations. The official expressed optimism that crude production would meet the OPEC quota in April.

The PUNCH reports that Nigeria’s inability to meet its OPEC production quota is not only affecting its oil export earnings but also adversely impacting domestic refineries that are starved of feedstock for their operations.

Recall that The PUNCH exclusively reported on March 9, 2026, that the Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, had begun moves to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through third-party international traders in a bid to sustain domestic refining operations.

“Leveraging our global crude trading network, we are sourcing third-party crude for the refinery at prices that are competitive with prevailing international market rates,” a senior official at NNPC, who spoke in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, had told The PUNCH.

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The report showed that several heavyweight OPEC producers implemented sharp cuts. Saudi Arabia’s output plunged by 2.35 mbpd to 7.76 mbpd, while Iraq slashed production by 2.23 mbpd to 1.9 mbpd.

The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait also posted steep declines of 1.48 mbpd and 1.380 mbpd, respectively.

Venezuela increased production by 75,000 bpd to 1.1 mbpd, Congo added 16,000 bpd to reach 307,000 bpd, and Libya gained 15,000 bpd to 1.3 mbpd. Algeria recorded a marginal drop of 2,000 bpd.

The report noted that totals for the entire OPEC group were not available due to independent rounding and incomplete data for some members. It also clarified that Saudi Arabia’s supply to the market in March stood at 7.76 mbpd, while its actual production was 6.97 mbpd. Nothing was recorded for Gabon and the crisis-ridden Iran.

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Dangote plans pan-African IPO for $20bn refinery

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The President of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, is planning a landmark cross-border public offering of his $20bn oil refinery, in a move that could reshape capital markets across Africa and deepen regional investor participation, a new report by Bloomberg revealed on Monday.

The proposed listing, which will see shares of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals floated on multiple African stock exchanges, is being positioned as the first pan-African initial public offering of its scale.

Details of the plan emerged following a high-level meeting in Lagos, which involved Dangote and the chief executives of several African bourses under the umbrella of the African Securities Exchanges Association.

Chief Executive Officer of the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Frank Mwiti, who attended the meeting, disclosed that discussions centred on structuring a cross-border listing framework that would allow investors across the continent to participate in the refinery’s ownership.

“The plan is to structure a pan-African IPO,” Mwiti said after the meeting, noting that the initiative would require coordination among exchanges to ease regulatory barriers and facilitate seamless trading across jurisdictions.

A spokesman for the Dangote Group confirmed that the meeting took place but declined to provide further details on the structure and timeline of the proposed offering.

The development comes months after Dangote unveiled plans to list about 10 per cent of the refinery on the Nigerian Exchange Group in 2026, a move widely seen as part of efforts to unlock value and broaden the company’s investor base.

To drive the offering, Dangote has appointed a consortium of financial advisers, including Stanbic IBTC Capital Limited, Vetiva Advisory Services Limited, and FirstCap Limited.

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Chief Executive Officer of FirstCap, Ukandu Ukandu, confirmed the appointments, stating that the advisers were already working on the transaction structure.

The report noted that multi-exchange listing could significantly deepen liquidity in African capital markets, while positioning Nigeria as a major hub for cross-border investments, especially as the country eyes a return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Markets Index.

They added that the offering could also provide much-needed capital to support Dangote’s aggressive expansion strategy.

Currently, the refinery, the largest single-train facility in the world, has a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. However, Dangote plans to more than double this to 1.4 million barrels per day within the next three years, a scale that would rival global refining giants, including facilities owned by Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani.

To fund this expansion, the company recently secured backing from the African Export-Import Bank, which underwrote $2.5bn out of a $4bn syndicated financing facility.

The refinery expansion forms part of a broader $40bn investment programme outlined by Dangote over the next five years, covering petrochemicals, fertiliser production, and energy infrastructure.

The pan-African IPO is also being driven by rising demand for refined petroleum products across the continent, as several African countries continue to face supply challenges exacerbated by global geopolitical tensions.

Since commencing operations, the Lagos-based refinery has begun exporting refined fuel to multiple African markets, helping to reduce reliance on imports from Europe and the Middle East.

Further discussions on the proposed listing were also held between Dangote and officials of the Nigerian Exchange Group, alongside representatives of member exchanges of the African Securities Exchanges Association, focusing on frameworks that would allow investors from different jurisdictions to seamlessly access the IPO.

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The deal could mark a turning point for Africa’s financial markets by fostering greater integration, improving capital mobilisation, and offering retail and institutional investors across the continent a rare opportunity to own a stake in one of Africa’s most strategic industrial assets.

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Electricity Power subsidy hits N418bn, losses exceed N300bn

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The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission has disclosed that the Federal Government incurred a subsidy obligation of N418.79bn in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as inefficiencies across the electricity value chain led to losses exceeding N300bn during the period.

This was contained in the commission’s 2025 fourth-quarter report, which also highlighted declining remittances, high distribution losses, grid instability, and a marginal drop in available generation capacity.

According to the report, total invoices issued by generation companies for electricity produced in the quarter amounted to N804.93bn. However, due to non-cost-reflective tariffs, the government absorbed 52.30 per cent of the cost.

The commission stated, “It is important to note that due to the absence of cost-reflective tariffs across all DisCos, the government incurred a subsidy obligation of N418.79bn; this represents a N39.96bn (-8.71 per cent) reduction in FGN subsidy compared to 2025/Q3.”

The report added that the subsidy covered more than half of generation costs, leaving distribution companies to pay only N386.13bn. “The government subsidy accounted for 52.30 per cent of the total GenCo invoice, which is a 6.60pp decrease compared to 2025/Q3,” the commission noted.

Despite the intervention, the sector recorded significant commercial losses. While the total value of electricity supplied to distribution companies stood at N969.19bn, only N795.06bn was billed to customers.

“The naira value of the total energy offtake by all DisCos in 2025/Q4 was N969.19bn, and the total energy billed was N795.06bn, which translates to a billing efficiency of 82.03 per cent.

The billing efficiency of 82.03 per cent recorded during the quarter represents a decrease of 0.66pp compared to 2025/Q3 (82.69 per cent). At an aggregate level, DisCos cumulatively recorded billing losses of N174.12bn in 2025/Q4,” the report said.

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In addition, high aggregate technical, commercial, and collection losses further weakened sector finances. “The weighted average ATC&C loss across all DisCos in 2025/Q4 was 34.9 per cent, translating to a cumulative revenue loss of N139.19bn across all DisCos,” the report noted.

Combined, the billing losses of N174.12bn and ATC&C revenue losses of N139.19bn indicate inefficiency-driven losses of over N300bn during the quarter. The report also showed that distribution companies received 7,991.22GWh of electricity but billed customers for only 6,614.57GWh, indicating persistent energy accounting inefficiencies.

“Although the total energy received by all DisCos in 2025/Q4 was 7,991.22GWh, the energy billed to end-use customers was only 6,614.57GWh,” it stated.

Collection performance also declined compared to the previous quarter. Market remittances to upstream participants also weakened. DisCos were required to remit N471.66bn but paid only N437.27bn, leaving an outstanding balance of N34.39bn.

This translates to a remittance performance of 92.71 per cent in 2025/Q4 compared to the 95.21 per cent recorded in 2025/Q3.

On operational performance, the commission said available generation capacity averaged 5,400.38 megawatts, representing a slight decline from the third quarter, with several plants recording reduced output.

Seventeen power plants recorded decreases in available generation capacities in 2025/Q4 relative to 2025/Q3, it said.

However, energy generation improved during the quarter. Average hourly generation increased to 4,452.71MWh/h, resulting in total generation of 9,831.58GWh. “The average hourly generation of the grid-connected power plants increased by 273.56MWh/h (+6.55 per cent),” the report stated.

Grid stability concerns also persisted. System frequency and voltage levels fell outside prescribed operating limits. “In 2025/Q4, the average lower daily (49.38Hz) and average upper daily (50.65Hz) system frequencies were outside the normal operating limits,” the commission said.

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The report stated that there was one incident of system disturbance on the national grid in 2025/Q4. A partial collapse of the grid occurred on December 29. The commission warned that the current subsidy regime exposes government finances to uncertainty.

“The current open-ended subsidy regime leaves the FGN exposed to indeterminate subsidy obligation,” it stated, citing generation cost variations and supply mix as key drivers.

The report added that the Q4 subsidy declined partly due to increased energy allocation to premium customers on Band A feeders. “The key driver of this reduction is the increase in energy allocated to Band A customers from 40 per cent to 45 per cent,” the commission said.

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