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States demand forensic audit of $8.8bn crude-for-loan deals

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State governments have called for a forensic audit of Nigeria’s crude oil-backed borrowing arrangements, warning that opaque crude-for-loan and swap deals may be undermining inflows into the Federation Account.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited pledged 272,500 barrels per day of crude oil through a series of crude-for-loan deals totalling $8.86bn, according to an analysis of a report by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and the NNPC’s financial statements.

According to The PUNCH’s findings, NNPC has already fully repaid $2.61bn in loans, representing 29.4 per cent of the total credit facility, while $6.25bn or 70.6 per cent, remains outstanding. Also, out of the $8.86bn credit facility, only about $6.97bn has been received from seven crude-for-loan deals, as of December 2023.

However, state governments, through their commissioners of finance, are demanding an audit of these deals.

The demand was contained in a communiqué issued at the end of the 2026 retreat of the Federation Account Allocation Committee Post-Mortem Sub-Committee, obtained by The PUNCH on Thursday, which stated that, “All crude oil-backed borrowing arrangements should be subjected to legislative approval, full disclosure, and independent audit. Existing arrangements should be reviewed, with forensic audits conducted to restore confidence and protect future Federation revenues.”

The communiqué followed a three-day retreat held in Enugu between February 9 and February 11, where fiscal authorities, state representatives, revenue agencies, and policy experts met to examine persistent revenue leakages affecting the Federation Account.

The retreat, which focused on “Assessing Fiscal and Sectoral Policies for Closing Revenue Leakage in the Federation Account,” was organised to critically assess fiscal frameworks and administrative practices affecting federal revenue collections and distribution to the three tiers of government.

According to the communiqué, the meeting was convened by the FAAC Post-Mortem Sub-Committee to “critically assess fiscal and sectoral policies contributing to revenue leakage in the Federation Account and to reposition the Sub-Committee for a more proactive revenue assurance role.”

The retreat was formally opened by the Governor of Enugu State, Dr Peter Mbah, who was represented by the Secretary to the State Government, Prof Chidiebere Onyia. In his goodwill message, Onyia welcomed participants and reaffirmed the importance of fiscal coordination and transparency in managing public finances.

He also emphasised the need for stronger accountability mechanisms in the management of Federation revenues, while commending the FAAC Post-Mortem Sub-Committee and the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission for their efforts to strengthen public finance governance in the country.

The communiqué indicated that the welcome address was delivered by the Chairman of the FAAC Post-Mortem Sub-Committee, Abdulazeez King.

Goodwill messages were also delivered by the Chairman of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission, Dr Mohammed Shehu, who was represented by Federal Commissioner, Ntufam Whiley.

The former Minister of State for Finance, who is now the Minister of State for Budget, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, and the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Finance, Mr Raymond Omachi, were represented at the event by Dr Ali Mohammed, Director of Home Finance.

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A keynote address on the theme of the retreat was delivered by the Accountant-General of the Federation, Mr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, who was represented by Mrs Rita Okolie, Director of the Federation Account at the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation.

Participants at the retreat included representatives of the Federal and State Governments, revenue-generating agencies, oversight institutions, and technical experts.

According to the communiqué, deliberations during the sessions were enriched by presentations covering a broad range of fiscal governance issues, including the Federation Account framework, reforms in the petroleum sector, tax policy changes, audit oversight, crude oil-backed borrowing, and administrative practices affecting government revenue inflows.

Participants at the retreat reaffirmed the constitutional importance of the Federation Account as the central pool through which revenue is shared among the three tiers of government.

The communiqué noted that the account, established under Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution, “remains the backbone of fiscal sustainability for the three tiers of government.”

However, it warned that several structural challenges continue to erode the volume of distributable revenues available to the Federal Government, states, and local governments.

The communiqué stated that participants unanimously observed that “persistent revenue leakages, opaque deductions, institutional inefficiencies, and weak oversight continue to erode distributable revenues.”

The retreat also expressed concern over the increasing scale of quasi-fiscal deductions from Federation revenues. These deductions, according to participants, include power sector subsidy obligations, debt write-offs, and operational expenses deducted at source before revenue is remitted into the Federation Account.

The communiqué stated that these practices were widely viewed as inconsistent with the principles of transparency and fiscal discipline.

It said, “The retreat noted with concern the growing scale of quasi-fiscal deductions from Federation revenues, including power-related subsidy obligations, debt write-offs, and operational costs deducted at source. These practices were considered inconsistent with transparency, budgetary discipline, and constitutional intent.”

Participants also examined the implications of the Petroleum Industry Act and its impact on the management of oil and gas revenues. While acknowledging that the legislation has created opportunities for improved governance in the petroleum sector, the retreat raised concerns about certain operational practices under the new framework.

According to the communiqué, participants noted that issues surrounding the transfer of joint venture assets to NNPC Limited, management fees, production sharing contract profit oil administration, and the Frontier Exploration Fund had raised serious concerns among stakeholders.

“These developments were observed to have materially reduced inflows into the Federation Account and weakened oversight,” the communiqué stated.

The retreat further stressed the importance of transparency, accountability, and stronger oversight mechanisms in the management of public finances. Participants agreed that unrestricted access to Federation Account data by oversight institutions was essential for effective monitoring and recovery of government revenues.

The communiqué stated, “Transparency, accountability, and oversight are indispensable to closing revenue leakages. It was resolved that unrestricted access to Federation Account data by oversight institutions, particularly the Office of the Auditor-General for the Federation, is critical for effective monitoring, audit, and recovery of revenues.”

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Participants also highlighted the role of the Supreme Audit Institution in preventing and detecting revenue leakages. The retreat emphasised the need to strengthen audit capacity and improve the timeliness of audit reporting to ensure that audit findings lead to concrete revenue recovery and deterrence against financial misconduct.

According to the communiqué, “Participants underscored the constitutional role of the Supreme Audit Institution in preventing and detecting revenue leakages. The retreat called for strengthened audit capacity, timely audit reporting, and enforceable follow-up mechanisms to ensure that audit findings translate into actual revenue recovery and deterrence.”

The meeting also raised concerns about the high cost of revenue collection by some government agencies. Participants described these costs as a major drain on the Federation Account and called for reforms to align collection charges with global best practices.

“The high cost of revenue collection by certain agencies was identified as a major drain on the Federation Account,” the communiqué said.

It added that participants resolved that cost-of-collection arrangements should be periodically reviewed and benchmarked against international standards. The retreat also welcomed ongoing tax reforms aimed at expanding the tax base and improving compliance across the country.

Participants noted that the reforms could significantly boost government revenue if implemented effectively. The communiqué stated that tax reforms should focus on strengthening compliance mechanisms and reducing fragmentation within the tax system.

Another major area of concern discussed at the retreat was the growing reliance on crude oil-backed borrowing and crude-for-product swap arrangements. The communiqué specifically mentioned arrangements such as Project Gazelle and the Direct Sale Direct Purchase scheme.

It stated that participants expressed “grave concern over crude oil-backed borrowing arrangements and opaque crude-for-product swaps, including Project Gazelle and the Direct Sale Direct Purchase scheme.”

The retreat noted that such arrangements could reduce transparency in revenue flows and weaken accountability in the management of oil revenues. It was, therefore, recommended that any future crude-backed financing arrangements must receive legislative approval and be subject to full disclosure and independent audits.

Participants also called for stronger collaboration between RMAFC and NNPC Limited to ensure proper accounting for oil revenues. The communiqué recommended that RMAFC should intensify engagement with the national oil company to obtain complete documentation relating to joint venture asset transfers and to compute net revenues due to the Federation.

It said the commission should also pursue appropriate recovery actions where discrepancies are identified.

The PUNCH earlier reported that about 14.66 per cent of Nigeria’s crude oil production in 2025 was likely committed to servicing crude-backed loan facilities, based on estimates derived from disclosures in the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s 2024 financial statements and official production data.

An analysis by The PUNCH shows that four major crude-secured arrangements — Project Gazelle, Project Yield, Project Leopard, and Eagle Export Funding — are backed by a combined 213,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

If this allocation remained unchanged throughout 2025, the total volume committed to debt servicing would amount to 77.75 million barrels for the year, calculated by multiplying 213,000 barrels per day by 365 days.

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Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicate that Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025.

The 77.75 million barrels tied to crude-for-loan arrangements therefore represent 14.66 per cent of total annual production. Using the 2025 average Bonny Light price of $72.08 per barrel, the 77.75 million barrels translate to about $5.60bn.

Converted at the official exchange rate of N1,492 to the dollar, the crude potentially deployed to service the loans is valued at approximately N8.36tn. This implies that out of the estimated gross crude oil earnings for 2025, a sizeable portion of output by volume was effectively earmarked for debt servicing before revenues could fully accrue to government coffers.

The obligations span multiple forward-sale and project-financing arrangements expected to be serviced through substantial crude oil and gas deliveries. These commitments have become a central pillar of NNPC’s funding framework following years of fiscal strain, volatile production, and declining upstream investment.

Several of the facilities were used to refinance legacy debts, fund refinery rehabilitation, support cash flow, and meet government revenue obligations.

The Chief Executive Officer of AHA Strategies, Mr Ademola Adigun, earlier linked declining oil earnings to opaque crude-for-cash arrangements and undisclosed loan repayments that have tied up part of the country’s output.

“Some of our crude is already tied up in loan agreements. The problem is that Nigeria doesn’t know the full details of these transactions because there’s little transparency around them,” Adigun said.

He added that several crude-backed projects, including Project Gazelle, were executed without adequate public disclosure or parliamentary scrutiny, urging the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative to strengthen its audits.

Development economist and Chief Executive Officer of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, said Nigeria’s crude trading structure had grown increasingly complex, involving swaps and oil-to-naira transactions that might not be fully captured in official records.

The Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, recalled that during the tenure of former Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, several forward-sale deals were signed to raise emergency funds amid fiscal pressure.

“During the Emefiele years, Nigeria committed a lot of its crude upfront,” he said. “Those forward sales are still eating into our current earnings.”

Yusuf, however, noted that transparency and professionalism within the NNPCL had improved under the current administration of Bayo Ojulari. “Under the new management of the NNPC, there’s better professionalism and openness,” he said.

He added that full disclosure of crude swap and forward-sale agreements is necessary to restore confidence in oil revenue reporting.

The Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC Limited, Andy Odeh, had not responded to enquiries sent to him regarding the crude-for-loan arrangements as of the time this report was filed.

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CBN increases ATM card issuance fee

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has increased the fee for the issuance or replacement of ATM cards from ₦1,000 to ₦1,500, with effect from May 1, 2026.

The adjustment is contained in a revised Guide to Charges by Banks and Other Financial Institutions released by the apex bank on Thursday, as part of efforts to standardise and improve transparency in the financial system.

According to the CBN, the new fee applies to standard ATM cards issued by all regulated institutions, including commercial banks, microfinance banks, payment service banks, and mobile money operators.

The regulator, however, clarified that no maintenance fee will be charged on naira-denominated debit or credit cards, while virtual cards will continue to be issued at no cost.

“The Guide aims to enhance flexibility, standardisation, transparency and competition in the Nigerian financial system,” the CBN stated.

Under the revised framework, point-of-sale (POS) payments by customers will remain free, with the merchant bearing a service charge of 0.5 per cent per transaction, capped at ₦10,000.

The CBN also retained provisions allowing banks to charge for SMS transaction alerts strictly on a cost-recovery basis, while mandating that email alerts be provided free of charge.

For electronic transfers, transactions of ₦5,000 and below will remain free, while transfers between ₦5,000 and ₦50,000 will attract a ₦10 fee, and those above ₦50,000 will cost ₦50.

On ATM withdrawals, customers using another bank’s ATM will be charged ₦100 for every ₦20,000 withdrawn at on-site machines, while off-site ATMs may attract an additional surcharge of up to ₦500 per transaction, subject to disclosure.

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The CBN further stated that current account maintenance charges will be capped at 0.5 per mille in 2026, with a phased reduction to zero by 2027.

It added that account reactivation and certain routine services will remain free, while any new charges or services not listed in the guide must receive prior approval from the apex bank.

The revised guidelines replace the previous version issued in January 2020 and form part of broader reforms aimed at strengthening consumer protection and ensuring fairness in banking charges across the country.

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Dangote official revealed that Nigeria’s petrol, diesel are subsidised

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A senior management official of the Dangote Group on Monday revealed that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has been subsidising the petrol and diesel it sells to the Nigerian market.

According to the official, who spoke to our correspondent in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak, the company’s N1,200/litre ex-depot price for petrol is below the competitive market price, considering the jump in crude prices following the US-Iran war.

The PUNCH reports that the war in the Middle East triggered an oil price surge when the Strait of Hormuz was blocked by Iran. From $66 per barrel on February 28, Brent, the global benchmark for crude, jumped above $100 a barrel.

As a result, Dangote raised its petrol gantry price from N774 to N1,200 as of the time of filing this report. The oil price hike also affected diesel and aviation fuel.

In the aviation sector, airlines are planning to shut down due to an over 350 per cent rise in Jet A-1 prices. Dangote supplies over 90 per cent of the country’s aviation fuel needs.

The Vice President of the Airline Operators of Nigeria, Allen Onyema, recently disclosed that prices skyrocketed from about N900 per litre before the Iran crisis to between N2,700 and N2,900, with some marketers selling as high as N3,500.

Speaking with our correspondent, the Dangote refinery official said the $20bn plant has already optimised the prices of petrol and diesel, stressing that it couldn’t have subsidised aviation fuel too.

As a result, he stated that jet fuel is being sold by the refinery at the market price.

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The official blamed the high crude prices for the rise in fuel prices. “With the crude price moving up steeply, we try to optimise the price of PMS (petrol) as much as possible to help the public. To some extent, we try to optimise the price of AGO (diesel) too. We can’t be subsidising everything, and so, we sell the jet fuel at the market price,” the source stated.

The official replied in the affirmative when asked if his use of the word ‘optimise’ means subsidy.

Another official of the Dangote Group disclosed that the company sells its aviation fuel to marketers below N2,000 per litre.

“I can confirm to you that our jet fuel price as of this (Monday) morning is N1,799. It was even lower before this time. That’s how much we sell to the marketers who later sell to the airlines. We are selling at less than N2,000 a litre,” the source disclosed.

Last week, a report by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria put Dangote’s jet fuel gantry price at N1,732 per litre, while the cost of imported aviation fuel was N1,835.

The PUNCH reports that fuel marketers have remained silent despite efforts to make them reveal how much they sell the product to the airlines.

Earlier, in a letter dated April 14, 2026, and addressed to the Executive Secretary of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, Clement Isong, the President of AON, Abdulmunaf Sarina, said the surge in the price of Jet A1 had become unbearable for operators.

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The PUNCH reports that AON had in its letter said “the price of Jet A1 as sold by marketers has risen significantly from the initial N900/litre as at February 28, 2026, to N3,300/litre as of today.

“This represents an increase of over 300 per cent. This astronomical and artificial increase is not commensurate with the rise in crude oil prices and is well above international market benchmarks, which reflect approximately a 30 per cent increase in crude oil cost. For the past weeks, airlines have endured this burden and continued operations out of patriotism and in the spirit of service to the nation. However, the situation has now become unbearable and clearly unsustainable,” the letter stated.

It urged MEMAN to prevail on its members to proportionately adjust jet fuel prices in line with international market realities, “as airlines can no longer sustain purchases at the current exorbitant rates”.

Responding, MEMAN attributed the rising cost of aviation turbine kerosene to global factors, particularly disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The marketers expressed surprise at the N3,300 per litre price referenced by airline operators, stating that their internal survey showed significantly lower prices. The marketers said they would not be able to disclose a particular price, but N3,300 is over N1,000 above the normal price.

”In light of the above, we must express our surprise at the price of N3,300 per litre stated in your letter as the price being charged to some airline operators. MEMAN members do not discuss pricing, as this will be against competition law; however, the price of N3,300 is over N1,000 higher than our average market survey price of Jet A1 carried out for this exercise, after receipt of your letter,” MEMAN explained.

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It, therefore, advised operators to explore alternative suppliers offering more competitive rates, saying, “We would therefore strongly encourage any operators currently being charged at those levels to exercise their commercial right to seek alternative suppliers.”

Since April 16, it has been observed that the situation has remained the same as airlines threaten to shut down their operations due to higher fuel costs.

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FG seeks 30-day credit window for airlines due to Jet fuel crisis

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To tackle Nigeria’s worsening jet fuel shortage and price surge, the Federal Government has asked marketers to grant airline operators a 30-day credit window and sell aviation fuel directly to them.

The development is sequel to a series of high-level engagements convened by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, following an earlier meeting called by the Minister of Aviation and Airspace Management on April 22-23, 2026.

The session brought together representatives from the Ministries of Aviation and Petroleum Resources, as well as major aviation agencies, including the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria, Nigerian Airspace Management Agency, Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority, airline operators, and aviation fuel marketers.

According to a copy of the executive summary of the meeting obtained by one of our correspondents in Abuja on Monday, the stakeholders called for urgent regulatory intervention to stabilise prices, urging the authority to engage relevant bodies to review pricing components linked to international benchmarks.

“To ensure price stability, NMDPRA should engage DPRP to adjust the premium on Platts and the cost variation element that was recently increased by the refinery,” the document stated.

At the end of the deliberations, the stakeholders agreed on a new indicative pricing band based on prevailing global oil market dynamics and domestic cost considerations. “The indicative end-user price should range between N1,760 – N1,988 per litre in Lagos and N1,809 – N2,037 per litre in Abuja,” the document stated.

It added that the pricing benchmarks were derived from Platts average prices recorded between April 17 and 23, 2026, warning that prices could climb even higher outside that window.

“Products purchased outside this window may be higher due to high volatility in current prices precipitated by the U.S.-Iran war and varying operational costs by operators,” the summary noted.

In addition, the committee advised regulatory agencies to streamline airport operations by reducing the number of airside fuel distributors to only those with verifiable infrastructure and capacity.

“NMDPRA is to work with FAAN and NCAA to validate airside distributors with infrastructure to trim the number of operators based on agreed criteria,” it added.

The issue of mounting debt between airline operators and fuel marketers also featured prominently during the discussions. To resolve this, the Ministry of Aviation was tasked with facilitating a consultative meeting between both parties.

“The Ministry of Aviation should facilitate a consultative meeting between oil marketers and airline operators to resolve outstanding debts,” the communiqué said.

As part of measures to ease financial pressure on airlines, marketers were encouraged to introduce more flexible payment terms. “Marketers should consider a 30-day credit window for airlines to pay up for supplies made,” it stated.

The committee further recommended the inclusion of Aviation Turbine Kerosene under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude initiative, which was designed to reduce dependence on foreign exchange and stabilise the cost of petroleum products.

Industry crisis

Nigeria’s aviation industry continues to struggle with high and inconsistent Jet A1 fuel costs, significantly impacting airlines’ operating expenses. Over the past two years, domestic airlines have repeatedly raised concerns over surging fuel prices, which at different periods exceeded N1,000 per litre, forcing operators to increase ticket fares and, in some cases, scale down operations.

The latest price projections underscore the continued vulnerability of the sector to global oil market fluctuations, particularly amid geopolitical tensions such as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has contributed to rising crude oil prices.

Industry stakeholders say the success of the newly proposed measures—especially direct sales, pricing adjustments, and inclusion in the naira-for-crude policy—will be critical to stabilising aviation fuel supply, controlling costs, and sustaining airline operations across the country.

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The aviation fuel crisis adds to the challenge facing the sector, including a mounting debt of more than N9bn owed by domestic airlines to ground handling companies, which have threatened to withdraw their services from Tuesday (today), raising fears of widespread flight disruptions.

The looming standoff, triggered by a seven-day ultimatum issued by the Aviation Ground Handlers Association of Nigeria, could cripple both domestic and international operations if unresolved.

The affected companies include Skyway Handling Company of Nigeria Plc, Nigerian Aviation Handling Company Plc, Butake Handling Company, Precision Handling Company Limited, and Swissport Handling Company.

N7m fuel cost

Meanwhile, Nigerian airlines said they are now spending over N7m to fuel a single domestic flight, as the sharp increase in aviation fuel prices raises fresh concerns over the viability of their operations.

Airlines in separate interviews with The PUNCH held that they are increasingly strained by the spike in costs, with fears mounting that the situation could soon force capacity cuts or broader disruptions if no urgent intervention is made.

Ibom Air, one of the country’s domestic carriers, stated the scale of the crisis, disclosing that it now spends about N7.6m to fuel a single flight, more than triple what it paid just months ago.

The airline, in a statement, described the development as unprecedented and warned that the financial burden is becoming unsustainable for domestic operators.

“The fuel price situation is an unprecedented crisis for Nigeria’s domestic airlines. At Ibom Air, the cost of fueling our aircraft has more than tripled between January and today. From an average of N2.1m per flight in January, as of today, the 27th of April, we are paying approximately N7.6m to fuel every flight.”

The airline noted that the spike represents a sharp escalation in operating costs in just a matter of weeks, placing additional strain on already stretched airline finances.

“This is a more than 350 per cent increase since the beginning of March, a space of just seven weeks! And our aircraft are some of the most fuel-efficient in the domestic market.

“At this point, domestic airlines are baffled at why the price of aviation fuel in Nigeria has ballooned to this level, way above the rest of the world, while the fuel marketers obtain 95 per cent or more of their aviation fuel from Dangote Refinery.”

Ibom Air further explained that despite the rising costs, airlines have been unable to significantly increase fares due to stiff competition and broader economic realities.

“The situation is exacerbated by the fact that a combination of competitive pressures and patriotism has prevented a commensurate increase in our fares, meaning that we and our fellow domestic airlines have had to absorb the immense operating losses resulting from this situation,” it stated.

The airline said it had initially hoped the surge in fuel prices would be temporary, but the situation has persisted longer than anticipated.

“We chose to do this believing that the crisis would pass in a week or two, but it has persisted now for nearly two months, continuously increasing, with no reprieve in sight as of today. ‘’While we continue to do everything we can to maintain normal operations, it is clear to us that the current conditions are unsustainable.

“We note that, worldwide, where fuel price increases are nowhere near what we are facing in Nigeria, airlines are reducing flights to manage the situation. We, too, will have to take whatever ameliorating actions we can in the days ahead, including reducing our capacity if necessary, to be able to continue to provide services to our customers and our country.”

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The Akwa Ibom-based airline warned that if the current trend continued, it could threaten the operation of airlines across the country.

“We also note that, if this situation persists much longer, airlines will not be able to continue operating just to pay for fuel and nothing else. We call on the fuel marketers to seriously reconsider the pricing of aviation fuel to make the airline business model continue to work in Nigeria,” the statement added.

Corroborating the development, the spokesperson for United Nigeria Airlines, Chibuike Uloka, said operators across the industry are facing similar cost pressures, as all airlines source fuel from the same market.

“We all purchase from the same market and source. It’s not cheaper for operator A or B; most airlines spend more than even because the Airbus A320 aircraft consumes more fuel due to its size and capacity, with a minimum of 5,000 litres per uplift.

“ So, some operators who operate Airbus or Boeing with more fuel consumption spend double the figure.”

Refinery’s profit surges

The $20bn Dangote Petroleum Refinery is currently enjoying a surge in profit margins from jet fuel production, even as Nigerian airlines warn they may be forced to halt operations over rising aviation fuel costs, a new report by Reuters revealed on Monday.

Findings showed that the refinery, regarded as Africa’s largest with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is capitalising on strong international demand and premium pricing in Europe to rake in record returns on jet fuel exports.

However, this windfall comes at a time when domestic carriers are grappling with soaring fuel prices, raising concerns about the sustainability of flight operations in Nigeria.

The report read, “The Dangote refinery is benefiting from record margins for producing jet fuel that it is mostly selling abroad, while the domestic airlines it also supplies have threatened to stop flying because of the surge in fuel prices.

‘’The refinery, the largest on the continent, was built to turn Africa’s biggest oil-producing ‌country into a net exporter of refined products, end Nigeria’s reliance on fuel imports, and shield its economy from global energy shocks.”

The Airline Operators of Nigeria said the cost of aviation fuel, also known as Jet A1, has climbed to about N3,300 per litre when logistics and storage are factored in, almost three times the levels recorded in February.

The development has pushed airlines to the brink, with operators warning that continued increases could trigger widespread disruption in the aviation sector.

A statement by AON noted, “The current price regime for Jet A1 is unsustainable. At over N3,000 per litre, airlines are operating under extreme financial pressure, and there is a real risk of service disruptions if urgent interventions are not implemented.”

Data from Nigeria’s downstream regulator showed that the refinery’s ex-depot price stood at about N1,879 per litre, broadly in line with imported fuel landing at roughly N1,900 per litre in Lagos.

Despite this parity, industry players said additional costs across the supply chain significantly inflate the final price paid by airlines.

The pricing dynamics have been further complicated by Nigeria’s fully deregulated fuel market, where prices are determined by global trends without government subsidies, unlike in many other African countries.

The structure allows the Dangote refinery to align its pricing with international markets, particularly at a time when global jet fuel demand has surged due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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The ongoing crisis has disrupted energy supplies worldwide, forcing airlines across continents to increase ticket prices, introduce fuel surcharges, and, in some cases, ground aircraft.

But for Dangote, the situation has translated into a lucrative opportunity.

According to industry expert Alan Gelder of Wood Mackenzie, refining margins for jet fuel in Europe are around $15 per barrel. He estimated that Dangote’s margins are more than double that figure, driven by the refinery’s scale, efficiency, and strategic positioning.

“European refiners are making about $15 per barrel, but Dangote is likely earning significantly higher margins, more than double, because of its configuration and access advantages,” Gelder said.

The refinery is said to be producing about 24 million litres of jet fuel daily, with the bulk exported to Europe, where buyers are willing to pay a premium ahead of the peak summer travel season.

Shipping data indicated that European imports of Nigerian jet fuel rose to between 78,000 and 96,000 barrels per day in April, the highest levels on record.

Dangote Group Vice President, Devakumar Edwin, confirmed the export trend, noting that a significant portion of the refinery’s output is directed to international markets.

He said, “We are producing about 24 million litres of jet fuel daily, and a large share of that is exported to Europe. However, we are also meeting the bulk of domestic demand, which is estimated at about 2.1 million litres per day.”

Despite the strong earnings, Edwin disclosed that the refinery relies heavily on imported crude oil, sourcing supplies from the United States, Brazil, and other African countries.

This, analysts said, limits the refinery’s profit potential, as reliance on imported feedstock introduces additional freight costs.

The situation is linked to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s existing crude-for-loan arrangements, which tie up a substantial portion of the country’s daily oil production.

Estimates suggest that about 400,000 barrels per day of Nigeria’s crude output is committed to servicing these obligations, leaving limited volumes available for domestic refining.

Experts noted that if the refinery had consistent access to local crude, its margins could be even higher due to reduced logistics costs.

Though the Federal Government has stepped in to avert a looming aviation crisis, approving measures to ease the burden on airlines, including debt relief and negotiations aimed at lowering fuel prices, stakeholders insist that a more sustainable solution lies in improving crude supply to local refineries and addressing inefficiencies in the downstream distribution chain.

They also warned that the benefits of having a mega refinery in Nigeria may not automatically translate to lower fuel prices.

“Building a large refinery does not automatically mean cheaper fuel,” Gelder added. “Prices will still reflect global market realities, especially in a deregulated environment.”

Dangote refinery was conceived as a game-changer for Nigeria’s energy sector, aimed at ending fuel imports, boosting exports, and insulating the economy from external shocks.

The company is now planning a public listing and an expansion of its refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, a move that could position it as the largest refinery globally by the end of the decade.

Its growing profit margins from jet fuel exports highlight a stark contrast between global opportunity and domestic strain in Nigeria’s aviation sector.

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