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Corruption goes beyond stealing money – ICPC boss

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The Chairman of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission, Dr Musa Aliyu (SAN), has said that corruption in Nigeria goes far beyond stealing public funds, describing it as “any deviation from the rule or due process.”

Aliyu made this remark in Abuja on Thursday while presenting a paper titled “Understanding Anti-Corruption Laws and Their Implications for Local Government Officials” at the 2025 National Summit of the Association of Chairmen of Local Government Service Commissions in Nigeria.

The summit, themed “Strengthening Local Government Administration in Nigeria,” drew participants from across the country — including local government administrators, policymakers, and anti-corruption experts — to discuss reforms aimed at improving transparency and governance at the grassroots level.

Represented by his Special Assistant on Legal Matters, Zainab Nass, the ICPC chairman stressed that corruption permeates every facet of society — from schools to markets and private institutions — and not just the public sector.

“Corruption is not just about stealing money; it is anything that deviates from the rule. It is corruption not to follow due process,” Dr Aliyu stated.

He urged Nigerians to uphold integrity, transparency, and adherence to the rule of law in all spheres of life, noting that meaningful development can only occur when both citizens and institutions act responsibly and lawfully.

Reflecting on Nigeria’s historical fight against corruption, Aliyu recalled earlier government campaigns such as the Ethical Revolution, the War Against Indiscipline and Corruption, and the Mass Mobilisation for Self-Reliance, Social Justice and Economic Recovery (MAMSER), which he said failed due to lack of institutional continuity and legal backing.

He noted that the establishment of the ICPC in 2000 marked a decisive shift in the nation’s anti-corruption drive, providing the first comprehensive legal framework to investigate, prevent, and prosecute corruption cases.

According to him, the Commission’s work is built on three key pillars — enforcement, prevention, and public education — and its initiatives such as Corruption Risk Assessments, Systems Studies and Reviews, and the creation of Anti-Corruption and Transparency Units in Ministries, Departments, and Agencies have significantly enhanced integrity in public institutions.

Aliyu also highlighted Nigeria’s compliance with international and regional anti-corruption frameworks, including the United Nations Convention Against Corruption, the Financial Action Task Force Standards, and the African Union Convention on Preventing and Combating Corruption.

Addressing local government officials, the ICPC chairman reminded them that all public servants — whether elected or appointed — are legally obligated to uphold ethical standards and accountability in their duties.

He warned that administrative misconduct such as financial misappropriation, falsification of records, nepotism, and abuse of office now carry serious legal consequences under Nigeria’s anti-corruption laws.

Citing the landmark 2024 Supreme Court judgment in Attorney-General of the Federation v. Attorney-Generals of Abia State & 35 Others, which nullified the dissolution of democratically elected local councils by state governors, Aliyu described the ruling as “a new dawn for grassroots governance.”

“We are now in the regime of asset recovery — taking back what was taken. Local governments must ensure that public funds serve the people, not private interests,” he declared.

Aliyu concluded by calling for renewed commitment to integrity, probity, and effective service delivery at the local government level, emphasising that true national development depends on how well local councils manage public resources to uplift the welfare of citizens.

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Inflation drops to 18.02% in six-month streak

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Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 18.02 per cent in September compared to 20.12 per cent in August 2025, indicating the sixth consecutive month of deceleration in inflation.

This was disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics in the latest Consumer Price Index published on Wednesday. This also marked the first time in three years that inflation had fallen below the 20 per cent threshold.

The rebasing of the CPI has been a driver of the decline in inflation this year, which has resulted in the first rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria in years. The sustained dip in inflation supports the projection by economists that the MPC may still cut the benchmark rate.

According to NBS, the September 2025 headline inflation rate decreased by 2.1 per cent compared to the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 14.68 per cent lower than the rate recorded in September 2024 (32.70 per cent), marking a decrease compared to the same month in the preceding year.

“However, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in September 2025 was 0.72 per cent, which was 0.02 per cent lower than the rate recorded in August 2025 (0.74 per cent). This means that in September 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in August 2025,” disclosed part of the report.

The food inflation rate in September 2025 was 16.87 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This was 20.9 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in September 2024 (37.77 per cent).

NBS said that “The significant decline in the annual food inflation figure is technically due to the change in the base year.

However, on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in September 2025 was -1.57 per cent, down by 3.22 per cent compared to August 2025 (1.65 per cent). The decrease can be attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of maize (corn) grains, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, fresh pepper, etc.”

Core inflation, which is all items less farm produce and energy, stood at 19.53 per cent in September 2025. On a year-on-year basis, it declined by 7.9 per cent when compared to the 27.43 per cent recorded in September 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 1.42 per cent in September 2025, down by 0.01 per cent compared to August 2025 (1.43 per cent). The average 12-month annual inflation rate was 22.39 per cent for the 12 months ending September 2025, which was 3.25 percentage points lower than the 25.64 per cent recorded in September 2024.

Urban inflation inched up month-on-month by 0.25 per cent to 0.74 per cent from 0.49 per cent in August. However, on a year-on-year basis, it stood at 17.50 per cent, which is about 17.63 percentage points lower compared to September 2024.

The rural inflation rate in September 2025 dipped on a yearly and monthly basis. It stood at 18.26 per cent (yearly) and 0.67 per cent (monthly).

At the state level, the headline inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Adamawa (23.69 per cent), Katsina (23.53 per cent), and Nasarawa (22.29 per cent), while Anambra (9.28 per cent), Niger (11.79 per cent), and Bauchi (12.36 per cent) recorded the lowest rise in headline inflation on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, however, NBS said the highest increases were recorded in Zamfara (9.36 per cent), Adamawa (8.15 per cent) and Nasarawa (7.49 per cent), while Niger (-8.14 per cent), Oyo (-5.56 per cent) and Bayelsa (-4.61 per cent) recorded a decline.

Year-on-year, food inflation was highest in Ekiti (28.68 per cent), Rivers (24.18 per cent), and Nasarawa (22.74 per cent), while Bauchi (2.81 per cent), Niger (8.38 per cent), and Anambra (8.41 per cent) recorded the slowest rise. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation was highest in Zamfara (15.62 per cent), Ekiti (12.77 per cent), and Sokoto (12.55 per cent) and lowest in Akwa Ibom (-12.97 per cent), Borno (-12.95 per cent), and Cross River (-10.36 per cent).

Ahead of the release of the inflation data, the Senior Research Analyst at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga, had projected an easing in the inflation to 18.8 per cent.

He had pegged his projection on “A combination of softer food prices and a strengthening naira may have tamed price pressures. Further signs of cooling price pressures may pave the way for further rate cuts by the CBN in November to stimulate economic growth.”

The experts at Arthur Steven Asset Management also affirmed the sentiments that the MPC may cut rates at its last meeting of the year, saying, “Nigeria’s inflation eased to 18.02 per cent in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline following the 50 bps MPR rate cut in September. The sustained disinflation trend strengthens expectations of a possible further rate reduction at the next MPC meeting in November.”

AIICO Capital, in their Inflation Watch, said that the decline in inflation reflects the positive impact of recent government policy reforms.

“Notably, the Consumer Price Index was rebased earlier in the year to a new 2024 base year with an updated basket of goods, contributing to the sustained moderation in inflation. In addition, energy prices and the FX rate have remained stable, with the naira appreciating by 2.9 per cent in September 2025, its strongest level in 15 months. Encouragingly, both annual and monthly inflation have trended downward, easing immediate price pressures.

“Furthermore, following the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 27 per cent in September, the sharp decline in inflation, now approaching the 15 per cent budget benchmark, signals the possibility of further rate cuts in the Monetary Policy Rate before year-end. However, sustaining lasting price stability will require consistent policy discipline, strengthened food security measures, and continued stability in energy prices to guard against renewed volatility.”

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Trump threatens to end cooking oil purchases from China

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US President Donald Trump has lashed out at China for suspending purchases of American soybeans, calling the move an “economically hostile act” and warning that Washington could retaliate by halting imports of cooking oil and other goods from the world’s second-largest economy.

“We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday, October 14.

The remarks came just hours after the president struck a more conciliatory tone when speaking to reporters at the White House, saying: “We have a fair relationship with China, and I think it’ll be fine. And if it’s not, that’s okay too.”

The back-and-forth comments underscore renewed trade tensions between the two economic superpowers during Trump’s second term, with tariffs once again soaring into the triple digits on key imports.

In a separate interview with the Financial Times on Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused Beijing of trying to destabilize global markets after it imposed sweeping export controls on rare earth materials, which are vital for high-tech manufacturing and defense industries.

Trump told reporters the US must remain “careful” in its dealings with Beijing, emphasizing his complex relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“I have a great relationship with President Xi, but sometimes it gets testy because China likes to take advantage of people,” he said. “When punches are thrown, you’ve got to put up the blocks.”

The president’s online statement also acknowledged the strain China’s soybean halt is placing on American farmers, a key political constituency for Trump. US exports of animal fats, greases, and processed oils, including used cooking oil, have surged in recent years, driven by booming domestic demand for biofuels.

Despite occasional attempts to cool tensions, the trade truce between Washington and Beijing remains fragile.

After China imposed new restrictions on rare earth exports, Trump announced plans to introduce a 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, a move that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said could be accelerated depending on Beijing’s next steps.

“Much depends on what the Chinese do,” Greer said in an interview with CNBC, adding that Beijing had “chosen to make this major escalation.”

China remains the world’s largest producer of rare earth minerals, which are critical for the production of magnets used in electronics, electric vehicles, and defense systems.

Bessent described Beijing’s latest measures as evidence of a “weak economy” attempting to “pull everybody else down with them.”

Tensions have also spilled into diplomacy. Last week, Trump hinted he might cancel a planned meeting with President Xi at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, citing China’s trade policies.

Beijing responded by accusing the United States of “double standards”, while vowing on Tuesday, October 14, that it was ready to “fight to the end” if a full-scale trade war resumed.

With both governments digging in, analysts warn that the renewed US-China confrontation could have global economic repercussions, potentially disrupting supply chains, raising prices, and further straining diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing.

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IMF raises Nigeria’s growth to 3.9%

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for Nigeria to 3.9 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026, reflecting optimism over the country’s improving macroeconomic indicators and supportive domestic policies.

The revised projection, contained in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released during the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington D.C., marks a significant upward shift compared to previous forecasts. The Fund said Nigeria’s improved performance was driven by higher oil production, rising investor confidence, exchange rate stability, and structural fiscal reforms.

Globally, however, the IMF expects growth to decline from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, as protectionist trade measures and fading temporary boosts weigh on expansion.

Speaking at a WEO press briefing, IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said:

“Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, and a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape.”

He noted that Nigeria’s limited exposure to higher US tariffs, stable foreign reserves, and the ongoing rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also contributed to the positive outlook.

In response, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso said the reforms implemented under President Bola Tinubu’s administration have “fully restructured the economy,” creating strong buffers and resilience against global shocks.

Speaking at the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) briefing, Cardoso said:

“We now have a more competitive currency and, for once, a positive balance of trade surplus expected to remain around six percent of GDP. The economy is witnessing a shift from import dependency to domestic production and export growth.”

He added that the government’s fiscal and monetary reforms had enhanced stability and reduced vulnerability to global tariff disputes.

The IMF report also cited broader global economic trends, noting that while emerging and developing economies will grow above 4.0 percent, advanced economies are expected to hover around 1.5 percent. Inflation is projected to continue easing worldwide, though risks remain tilted to the downside due to protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and labor supply shocks.

The Fund urged governments to maintain credible, transparent, and sustainable policies, rebuild fiscal buffers, and preserve central bank independence. It also warned that short-term strategies such as trade rerouting and diversion could undermine long-term productivity and global growth.

“The global economy has shown resilience to trade policy shocks, but the drag from shifting policies is becoming visible,” the WEO stated. “Suboptimal reallocation of resources and technological decoupling may restrain growth in the years ahead.”

IMF Deputy Research Director Petya Koeva Brooks noted that Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth would remain stable at 4.1 percent in 2025 before rising slightly to 4.4 percent in 2026, adding that Nigeria’s upward revision sets it apart as one of the region’s key bright spots.

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