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Inflation drops to 18.02% in six-month streak

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Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 18.02 per cent in September compared to 20.12 per cent in August 2025, indicating the sixth consecutive month of deceleration in inflation.

This was disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics in the latest Consumer Price Index published on Wednesday. This also marked the first time in three years that inflation had fallen below the 20 per cent threshold.

The rebasing of the CPI has been a driver of the decline in inflation this year, which has resulted in the first rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria in years. The sustained dip in inflation supports the projection by economists that the MPC may still cut the benchmark rate.

According to NBS, the September 2025 headline inflation rate decreased by 2.1 per cent compared to the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 14.68 per cent lower than the rate recorded in September 2024 (32.70 per cent), marking a decrease compared to the same month in the preceding year.

“However, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in September 2025 was 0.72 per cent, which was 0.02 per cent lower than the rate recorded in August 2025 (0.74 per cent). This means that in September 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in August 2025,” disclosed part of the report.

The food inflation rate in September 2025 was 16.87 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This was 20.9 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in September 2024 (37.77 per cent).

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NBS said that “The significant decline in the annual food inflation figure is technically due to the change in the base year.

However, on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in September 2025 was -1.57 per cent, down by 3.22 per cent compared to August 2025 (1.65 per cent). The decrease can be attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of maize (corn) grains, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, fresh pepper, etc.”

Core inflation, which is all items less farm produce and energy, stood at 19.53 per cent in September 2025. On a year-on-year basis, it declined by 7.9 per cent when compared to the 27.43 per cent recorded in September 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 1.42 per cent in September 2025, down by 0.01 per cent compared to August 2025 (1.43 per cent). The average 12-month annual inflation rate was 22.39 per cent for the 12 months ending September 2025, which was 3.25 percentage points lower than the 25.64 per cent recorded in September 2024.

Urban inflation inched up month-on-month by 0.25 per cent to 0.74 per cent from 0.49 per cent in August. However, on a year-on-year basis, it stood at 17.50 per cent, which is about 17.63 percentage points lower compared to September 2024.

The rural inflation rate in September 2025 dipped on a yearly and monthly basis. It stood at 18.26 per cent (yearly) and 0.67 per cent (monthly).

At the state level, the headline inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Adamawa (23.69 per cent), Katsina (23.53 per cent), and Nasarawa (22.29 per cent), while Anambra (9.28 per cent), Niger (11.79 per cent), and Bauchi (12.36 per cent) recorded the lowest rise in headline inflation on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, however, NBS said the highest increases were recorded in Zamfara (9.36 per cent), Adamawa (8.15 per cent) and Nasarawa (7.49 per cent), while Niger (-8.14 per cent), Oyo (-5.56 per cent) and Bayelsa (-4.61 per cent) recorded a decline.

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Year-on-year, food inflation was highest in Ekiti (28.68 per cent), Rivers (24.18 per cent), and Nasarawa (22.74 per cent), while Bauchi (2.81 per cent), Niger (8.38 per cent), and Anambra (8.41 per cent) recorded the slowest rise. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation was highest in Zamfara (15.62 per cent), Ekiti (12.77 per cent), and Sokoto (12.55 per cent) and lowest in Akwa Ibom (-12.97 per cent), Borno (-12.95 per cent), and Cross River (-10.36 per cent).

Ahead of the release of the inflation data, the Senior Research Analyst at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga, had projected an easing in the inflation to 18.8 per cent.

He had pegged his projection on “A combination of softer food prices and a strengthening naira may have tamed price pressures. Further signs of cooling price pressures may pave the way for further rate cuts by the CBN in November to stimulate economic growth.”

The experts at Arthur Steven Asset Management also affirmed the sentiments that the MPC may cut rates at its last meeting of the year, saying, “Nigeria’s inflation eased to 18.02 per cent in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline following the 50 bps MPR rate cut in September. The sustained disinflation trend strengthens expectations of a possible further rate reduction at the next MPC meeting in November.”

AIICO Capital, in their Inflation Watch, said that the decline in inflation reflects the positive impact of recent government policy reforms.

“Notably, the Consumer Price Index was rebased earlier in the year to a new 2024 base year with an updated basket of goods, contributing to the sustained moderation in inflation. In addition, energy prices and the FX rate have remained stable, with the naira appreciating by 2.9 per cent in September 2025, its strongest level in 15 months. Encouragingly, both annual and monthly inflation have trended downward, easing immediate price pressures.

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“Furthermore, following the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 27 per cent in September, the sharp decline in inflation, now approaching the 15 per cent budget benchmark, signals the possibility of further rate cuts in the Monetary Policy Rate before year-end. However, sustaining lasting price stability will require consistent policy discipline, strengthened food security measures, and continued stability in energy prices to guard against renewed volatility.”

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NNPC April crude supplies to Dangote cross 1bn barrels

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Crude oil supply from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s trading arm surged in April 2026, with shipment records indicating that more than 1.03 million metric tonnes, equivalent to about 6.8 million barrels or over 1.08 billion litres, were delivered to the Dangote Oil and Gas Company Limited within the month.

An analysis of tanker vessel movements obtained by The PUNCH on Tuesday shows that the deliveries were executed through eight crude cargoes handled by NNPC Trading, reinforcing the state oil firm’s role as a major feedstock supplier to the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery.

The shipments, sourced from key Nigerian crude streams including Anyala, Bonga, Odudu, Forcados, Qua Iboe, and Utapate, were routed through the refinery’s Single Point Mooring systems, SPM-C1 and SPM-C2.

The document shows that out of the eight cargoes, five have been fully discharged, while three others are still awaiting berthing or completion, indicating a steady pipeline of crude inflows into the refinery.

This development comes amid the refinery’s continued complaints of supply inadequacies, with a total requirement of 19 cargoes monthly, and a recent report that the country imported 55.39 million barrels in January and February 2026.

A breakdown of the deliveries showed that Sonangol Kalandula initiated the supply chain, delivering 123,000 metric tonnes of crude from Anyala. The vessel arrived on April 5, berthed on April 8, and sailed on April 9.

This was followed by Advantage Spring, which supplied 128,190 metric tonnes from Bonga, arriving on April 11 and completing discharge by April 13.

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Similarly, a vessel code-named Barbarosa delivered 125,000 metric tonnes from Odudu, while Sonangol Njinga Mban transported 129,089 metric tonnes from Bonga.

Another completed shipment, handled by Nordic Tellus, brought in 139,066 metric tonnes from Forcados, completing discharge on April 17.

However, three additional cargoes remain in progress. Advantage Sun, carrying 142,327 metric tonnes from Bonga, has arrived but is yet to berth. Also pending are Advantage Spring from Utapate with 120,189 metric tonnes, and Sonangol Kalandula from Qua Iboe with 126,471 metric tonnes.

In total, the NNPC Trading cargoes account for 1,033,332 metric tonnes of crude, underscoring what industry analysts describe as a “strong and sustained supply commitment” to the Dangote refinery.

Further findings show that, beyond crude deliveries, the Dangote refinery also received multiple shipments of refined products and blending components from international markets during the period.

Among them, Seaways Lonsdale delivered 37,400 metric tonnes of blendstock gasoline from Immingham, United Kingdom, handled by Vitol, between April 18 and 19.

Another vessel, Augenstern, supplied 37,125 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit from Lavera, France, discharging between April 8 and 9.

From Norway, Emma Grace brought in 37,496 metric tonnes of PMS from Mongstad, while LVM Aaron delivered 36,323 metric tonnes from Lome, Togo.

Similarly, Egret discharged 35,498 metric tonnes of naphtha from Rotterdam between April 16 and 18, providing critical feedstock for gasoline blending.

A pending shipment, Mont Blanc I, carrying 36,877 metric tonnes of blendstock gasoline from Antwerp, Belgium, is yet to berth, while Aesop is expected to deliver 130,000 metric tonnes of residue catalytic oil from Singapore later in April.

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In addition to NNPC Trading volumes, other crude cargoes from international and domestic traders also supported refinery operations.

Notably, Yasa Hercules delivered 273,287 metric tonnes of crude from Corpus Christi, United States, while Front Orkla brought in 264,889 metric tonnes from Ingleside, US.

A major cargo, Navig8 Passion, supplied 496,330 metric tonnes of crude from Cameroon, highlighting regional supply integration.

Domestic contributions included Harmonic, which delivered nearly 993,240 barrels from Ugo Ocha, and Aura M, which supplied 1 million barrels from Escravos, alongside an additional 651,331 barrels of cargo from Anyala.

Operational data indicate that most vessels berthed within one to two days of arrival and departed shortly after discharge, suggesting improved efficiency at the refinery’s offshore terminals.

The Dangote refinery, located in Lekki, Lagos, is Africa’s largest single-train refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

The facility is expected to significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products by refining domestic crude and supplying petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, and other derivatives to the local market.

NNPC Limited, through its trading arm, has remained a central player in supplying crude to the refinery under evolving commercial arrangements, amid ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

Earlier this month, Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, revealed in a report by Bloomberg that the refinery received 10 cargoes of crude oil from the state-owned oil firm in March, compared to an average of about five cargoes monthly since late 2024.

Dangote said the shipments included six cargoes paid for in naira and four in dollars, under the crude supply arrangement between the refinery and the NNPC.

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“Nigeria doubled crude supply to Dangote Refinery in March as Africa’s top oil producer moved to shore up fuel availability after the Iran war disrupted Middle East shipments. Last month, they gave us six cargoes with payments in naira and four cargoes with payments in dollars,” he stated.

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CBN, NCC to combat SIM-related fraud

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The Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigerian Communications Commission on Monday signed a memorandum of understanding to tackle SIM-related fraud and strengthen consumer protection across Nigeria’s digital ecosystem.

The agreement, signed at the CBN headquarters in Abuja, aims to improve coordination between the financial and telecommunications sectors, focusing on combating electronic fraud linked to mobile numbers, enhancing payment system integrity, and protecting consumers.

Speaking at the event, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said the pact was a “practical statement of national interest”, noting that the increasing reliance on digital channels for payments and financial services required stronger collaboration between both regulators.

He said, “This MoU is not merely an administrative document; it is a practical statement of national interest,” adding that the agreement would reinforce the stability and integrity of Nigeria’s payment system while supporting innovation and consumer safety.

Cardoso explained that the deal would strengthen coordination on approvals, technical standards, and innovation trials, including sandbox testing, to ensure that financial services remain reliable and scalable.

He noted that the partnership would also improve the response to rising electronic fraud, stressing that “addressing these threats requires joined-up action, shared intelligence, clearer escalation paths, stronger operational readiness across regulated entities, and consistent public education”.

A key component of the agreement is the rollout of the Telecom Identity Risk Management Portal, a data-sharing platform designed to detect fraud linked to recycled, swapped, or blacklisted phone numbers.

According to Cardoso, the platform would enable real-time verification of mobile number status across banks and fintech firms, providing an additional layer of protection for consumers and the financial system.

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He said strict compliance with data protection laws, including encryption and consent protocols, would guide the use of the platform.

Also speaking, the Executive Vice Chairman of the NCC, Aminu Maida, described the agreement as a major step in strengthening Nigeria’s digital economy.

He said, “The signing of this Memorandum of Understanding marks an important milestone in the regulatory stewardship of Nigeria’s digital economy,” adding that collaboration between both institutions was “not optional; it is imperative.”

Maida noted that the initiative would give financial institutions better visibility into the status of phone numbers used in transactions, including whether a line had been swapped, recycled, or flagged for fraudulent activity.

“This ensures that our financial services industry is better equipped with timely and relevant information to effectively combat e-fraud, particularly those perpetrated using phone numbers,” he said.

He added that the agreement would also improve consumer protection, assuring Nigerians that issues such as failed airtime recharges would be resolved more quickly under the new framework.

Earlier, the Director of Payment System Supervision at the CBN, Dr Rakiya Yusuf, said the partnership between both regulators had evolved over the years from separate oversight roles into a more integrated collaboration focused on securing Nigeria’s digital and financial systems.

She traced the relationship back to earlier efforts to align mobile payment regulations and telecom licensing frameworks, including the 2018 MoU that enabled telecom operators to participate in mobile money services through special purpose vehicles.

She also highlighted joint interventions such as the resolution of the USSD pricing dispute and the introduction of a N6.98 per session fee, as well as recent efforts to address failed transactions through a proposed 30-second refund framework.

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Under the new agreement, two joint committees will be established to drive implementation. These include the Joint Committee on Payment Systems and Consumer Protection and the Joint Committee on the telecom risk management platform.

The agreement is expected to deepen digital financial inclusion, reduce fraud risks, and strengthen trust in Nigeria’s rapidly expanding digital economy.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the CBN and the NCC unveiled a joint framework to tackle the growing problem of failed airtime and data transactions, which have left consumers frustrated after payments are processed but service delivery is not provided.

The 20-page draft, published on the CBN’s website, was developed by the CBN’s Consumer Protection & Financial Inclusion Department and the telecom regulator, with input from banks, mobile operators, payment providers, and other stakeholders.

The regulators seek to clarify accountability, standardise complaint-resolution timelines, and create a coordinated system for addressing grievances across the financial and telecommunications sectors.

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Electricity reforms: Rivers, Kano, 19 others delay takeover

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Twenty-one states, including Rivers and Kano, are yet to assume regulatory control of their electricity markets nearly three years after the enactment of the Electricity Act 2023, even as 15 states have already transitioned to independent market oversight.

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission disclosed that the states that have completed the transition have established their own electricity regulatory frameworks and are now responsible for market development, investment attraction, tariff oversight, and customer protection within their jurisdictions.

According to the commission, the shift follows the decentralisation provisions of the Electricity Act 2023, which empower subnational governments to regulate electricity generation, transmission and distribution within their territories after completing the necessary legal and administrative processes.

NERC noted that 15 states have so far completed the transition to state-level regulation. These include Enugu, Ekiti, Ondo, Imo, Oyo, Edo, Kogi, Lagos, Ogun, Niger, Plateau, Abia, Nasarawa, Anambra and Bayelsa.

However, the remaining 21 states yet to assume regulatory control are Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara.

Industry analysts said the slow pace of transition in some states could delay the expected benefits of decentralisation, including improved power supply, localised tariff structures, and accelerated investments in embedded generation and mini-grid projects.

Under the new framework, once a state completes its transition, the state electricity regulator takes over licensing of intrastate electricity operations, enforcement of technical standards, tariff setting for local distribution, and protection of electricity consumers within the state.

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NERC, in turn, retains oversight only on interstate and national grid-related activities.

The commission emphasised that state regulators are expected to drive local electricity market growth by encouraging private sector participation, promoting renewable energy deployment, and ensuring service quality standards for distribution companies operating within their jurisdictions.

The timeline released by the commission shows that the earliest transitions occurred in October 2024, when Enugu and Ekiti states assumed regulatory authority, followed by Ondo shortly after. The pace accelerated in 2025, with several states, including Oyo, Edo, Lagos and Ogun, completing their transitions. The most recent additions include Nasarawa, Anambra and Bayelsa between January and February 2026.

It was observed, however, that some of the 15 states have not set up their regulatory commissions.

Power sector stakeholders argue that states yet to transition risk missing opportunities to attract investments in off-grid electrification projects, particularly in underserved rural communities.

They also note that state-level regulation could help address longstanding distribution challenges by enabling more flexible tariff structures, targeted subsidies, and enforcement mechanisms tailored to local conditions.

With less than half of the states having completed the transition, many argued that the effectiveness of the Electricity Act reforms will largely depend on how quickly the remaining states establish their regulatory institutions and operational frameworks.

Apparently overwhelmed by the country’s power woes, the Federal Government recently pushed the challenge to the 36 states, asking them to take over power generation, transmission, and distribution.

The Federal Government said this was the only solution to the power crisis in the country.

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The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said at an energy summit in Lagos that the Electricity Act’s impact includes decentralisation and liberalisation.

“In a country as big as Nigeria, with almost a million square kilometres of landmass, over 200 million people, millions of businesses, thousands of institutions (health and educational institutions), 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory, and 774 local governments—centralisation cannot work for us. The responsibility of providing stable electricity can never be left in the hands of the Federal Government.

“At the centre, you cannot, from Abuja, guarantee stable power across the country. So, this is one thing that the Act has achieved—decentralisation. That has now allowed all the states or the subnationals to play in all segments of the power sector value chain—generation, transmission, distribution, and even service industries supporting the power sector,” he stated.

He called on the remaining 21 states to set up their electricity market.

“I believe other states will follow suit in operationalising the autonomy granted, with full collaboration of the national regulator. We are working actively with these states to ensure strong alignment between the wholesale market and the retail market.

“In this regard, we believe the active involvement of the state governments, particularly in the off-grid segment, is critical, given the series of roundtable engagements held with governors by the Rural Electrification Agency, as well as ongoing efforts to closely track the distribution companies’ performances within their respective jurisdictions,” Adelabu emphasised.

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