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Stop exporting crude, OPEC tells Nigerian producers

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The Chairman of the OPEC Board of Governors for 2025 has called on Nigerian oil producers to prioritise domestic refining and value creation instead of exporting raw crude.

Speaking on Wednesday at the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists Pre-Conference Workshop in Lagos, Adeyemi-Bero, who is also the Chief Executive Officer of First Exploration & Petroleum Development Company, said the country must move away from decades of crude exports and focus on retaining value within the local economy.

He said, “We’ve been an oil and gas exporting country. We produced oil; once there was oil, we put it in a tank and sent it abroad. 40 or 50 years later, people blame Shell and others, but I don’t. They are businesses looking for feedstock for their industrialisation. If you give it to them, they’ll still take it.”

Adeyemi-Bero argued that Nigeria had a responsibility to develop its energy resources locally and use them to drive industrial growth, rather than depend on foreign markets.

According to him, President Bola Tinubu would have returned fuel subsidies if the Dangote refinery had not been there to produce fuel locally.

”Just look at the impact the Dangote refinery has had on foreign exchange and gross domestic product growth. You can imagine if that had happened 50 years ago. If the president had said, ‘I’m cancelling subsidies, and I’m not going to allow multiple exchange rates,’ and we didn’t have the option of having petroleum products in this country, I’m sure he would have changed his policies and gone back to subsidies. It’s as simple as that. Let’s not over-aggregate.

This message is saying, We need to decline exports,” Adeyemi-Bero said.

He spoke further that, “If you go to Saudi Arabia today, if you go to the UAE, if you go to Qatar, if you go to Malaysia, if you go to Brazil, they are expanding the value chain and keeping it in their space. Now, one man built a refinery; we fought him, we argued with him. But the impact of that Dangote refinery on our GDP and foreign exchange is big.”

He added that local refining and crude utilisation would also help stabilise the naira and strengthen the nation’s economy.

“If we can sell some oil in naira, let’s do it if it works for both parties. The strength of the naira is what it commands in trade. This is why nobody wants the naira outside this space, but the day you can pay for oil in naira because both parties agree, it strengthens the naira,” he said.

Adeyemi-Bero stressed that Nigeria must deliberately reduce its dependence on exports and focus on value creation to avoid future economic decline.

“We need to decline exports. All of us like to sell, but the person that will buy from us will be willing to buy at the right price. ‘I’m investing in dollars, so don’t come and buy in naira. If I invest in dollars, then pay me in dollars.’ But we could make that happen,” he stated.

He warned that failure to change course could be costly, saying, “We need to shift from being export-driven to value-driven. If we don’t do this over the next decade, we have failed.”

The OPEC Governor also called for renewed commitment among local operators, noting that international oil companies had already played their part.

“The internationals have done their bit. But I do think that God also decided to hand over to Nigerians. ‘They’ve started it; now let me give it to the owners to make it happen,” he said.

Adeyemi-Bero emphasised that the oil and gas sector remained central to achieving the country’s economic aspirations, including its $1tn economy target.

“Nigeria wants to be a $1tn economy. Let’s not worry about where we are today. Is it possible? Yes. Who is going to make it possible? We have a responsibility, probably the primary responsibility, to drive that energy. Energy access and security is a must,” he declared.

He further noted that energy-led growth was essential for national development, saying, “The oil and gas sector can enable that to happen. Because without electricity, without fuel, the economy is not going to grow. So we have a responsibility.”

Adeyemi-Bero urged industry players to take ownership of Nigeria’s energy future, stressing, “The baton has been placed in our hands. We can have oil and gas like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, or Qatar, small nations punching their weight through their resources. We must use ours to step up as a country.”

Earlier in his welcome remarks, the President of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists, Mr Johnbosco Uche, said the pre-conference workshop was a vital part of the association’s annual conference and a platform for industry leaders to deliberate on critical sector issues.

Uche explained that this year’s conference theme, ‘Revitalising the Nigerian Petroleum Exploration and Production Strategies for Energy Security and Sustainable Development’, reflected the urgency of the times and the need for collective industry action.

He said the country must work to increase production to meet its national target while ensuring long-term sustainability.

“In the near term, we need to increase production. The country is pushing to hit the three million barrels per day target. We have to push it to that three million target. But most importantly, sustaining that production is also key,” Uche stated.

The NAPE president underscored the role of explorers in achieving this objective, adding that maintaining technical excellence was vital for the industry’s survival.

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Food imports soar 45% as local production falters

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Food and beverage imports increased to N677.3bn in the first half of 2025, a 44.48 per cent rise from N468.76bn in the same period of 2024, prompting renewed calls for stronger government support to enhance local industry capacity and reduce dependency on imports.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that while the value of primary food and beverage imports mainly for household consumption surged, the value of processed food and beverages consumed by households recorded a marginal 1.85 per cent decline, falling from N699.58bn in H1 2024 to N686.81bn in H1 2025.

Meanwhile, primary food and beverage imports mainly for industrial use grew in six months by 1.37 per cent from N969.22bn to N982.49bn, while processed imports for industrial use rose by 7.28 per cent from N984.16bn to N1.06tn in the same period.

This came as members of the Organised Private Sector who spoke to The PUNCH in separate phone interviews linked the surge in food imports to weak local production, insecurity, inconsistent agricultural policy, and consumer preference for imported products perceived to have better quality and availability.

Trust deficiency

The Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Agricultural and Allied Group, Tunde Banjoko, said the figures reflected a lack of trust in locally produced raw materials and food items.

“From this data, what one can simply infer is that people trust the quality and integrity of imported raw materials, foodstuff, and beverages for household consumption more than what is being produced locally,” he said.

Banjoko noted that factors such as price competitiveness, quality control, and availability played significant roles in shaping consumer preferences.

He added, “We are still battling with inadequate funding to do things properly the way they ought to be done. The quality of our seedlings, the use of chemicals, and our production processes are still affecting the overall output.”

The LCCI agric group chief added that the country’s poor storage systems and weak commodity boards had worsened the problem, leading to seasonal shortages of local produce.

He advised the Federal Government to establish stronger funding mechanisms for agribusinesses and guarantee offtake systems through commodity boards to stabilise supply. “We need to get proper storage and make them available.

Commodity boards need a guarantee of offtake so that these products can be available, stored properly, and made available to the market when needed,” Banjoko stressed.

He maintained that the government must act to ensure businesses are scalable and interesting to local producers so that they can compete effectively. With the right policies, these numbers should begin to drop and ease pressure on foreign exchange,”

Insecurity crippling output

The President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, explained that insecurity and low technological adoption in agriculture were among the main reasons Nigeria continued to rely on food imports.

Egbesola said, “Most of the farmers are no longer on the farms because of insecurity. Many farmlands have been deserted. That is where the primary products come from. It is when the farmers plant and harvest. That is when the manufacturers and other users can buy from them and use them as their inputs. This time, many of the farms are deserted.”

He noted that Nigeria’s agricultural productivity remained far below global standards due to the use of outdated tools and practices.

“For instance, what it takes to produce 10 tons of cassava in Nigeria requires about 30 acres of land, whereas in the Netherlands, the same 10 tons come from just three plots. That shows how far behind we are in technology use,” he said.

He urged the government to integrate technology into farming, upgrade peasant farmers, and invest in agricultural mechanisation to close the production gap.

“To Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, this wide gap presents investment opportunities. It’s a sign that there is strong business potential in local production if we can look inward and bridge these deficits,” Egbesola said.

The Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, attributed the rise in food and beverage imports partly to government import waivers and increased demand for staple foods such as wheat-based products.

“The biggest driver of food imports is in the wheat value chain; bread, pastries, and noodles, which are staple foods in Nigeria,” Yusuf explained.

He said the Federal Government’s 180-day waiver to import maize and brown rice in 2024 had influenced the 2025 figures, as many of those imports entered the country early this year. “Another factor is that the data are in naira terms, and with currency depreciation, the import values appear higher even if the physical quantities are not significantly more,” he added.

Yusuf advised the government to focus on improving agricultural value chains, supporting wheat alternatives, and reducing policy inconsistencies that discourage local investors.

Purchasing power

Meanwhile, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, Eke Ubiji, lamented rising economic hardship. He cautioned that the rising import figures did not suggest that Nigerians’ purchasing power had improved.

“I strongly doubt that these numbers mean consumers’ purchasing power has increased. Many people have reduced what they buy because of inflation,” Ubiji said.

The NASME chief noted that the growth in imports may reflect industrial demand rather than increased household consumption, as consumers have increasingly turned to smaller, cheaper product sizes.

He said, “Even people who were not used to eating instant noodles before are now eating them because that’s what their money can afford. The economy has forced consumers to adjust downward.”

Ubiji criticised government claims of improvement in living conditions, noting that essential food items remained unaffordable for many Nigerians.

Stakeholders agreed that reversing Nigeria’s growing reliance on food and beverage imports required coordinated policy action across the agricultural, manufacturing, and trade sectors.

They urged the Federal Government to tackle insecurity, strengthen value addition in local production, incentivise agribusiness investment, and improve access to finance for farmers and processors.

Banjoko summed it up: “If we can make local production sustainable and competitive through funding, technology, and storage infrastructure, Nigeria can reduce its import dependence and ease pressure on foreign exchange.”

Fight for food security

The Federal Government has long battled to ensure food security in Nigeria. Official statistics have identified food inflation as a major aggravator of core inflation. Nigerians have found it increasingly difficult to access food over the past five years owing to import restrictions of the former President Muhammadu Buhari administration and insecurity.

The inflationary trend began to soften with the President Bola Tinubu administration’s national emergency on food security, which freed up import restrictions for 150 days on selected food items, including rice. Notably, local farmers decried the policy as reversing gains made in building the country’s self-sufficiency.

Whereas the Federal Government has lauded its efforts in executing the temporary import duty waiver for bringing down food prices, the rebased Consumer Price Index has also deemphasised the weight of food baskets in the inflation calculation.

Present food inflation figures are dropping, according to NBS data. As of September 2025, the food inflation rate was 16.87 per cent on a year-on-year basis. It was 20.9 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in September 2024 (37.77 per cent).

Stakeholders have warned of lingering risks to food supply and affordability. The PUNCH earlier reported that Nigeria’s agricultural import bill soared to N2.22tn in the first half of 2025, signifying more imported food to meet the growing needs of the local population.

Yet, farmers, rice millers, and stakeholders argued that the Federal Government’s policies are undermining local production and worsening food insecurity.

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World Bank projects Brent crude to average $60

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Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to an average of $60 per barrel in 2026, the World Bank has forecast, as global supply continues to outstrip demand. The decline marks a continuation of a multi-year moderation in energy prices.

In its latest report, The Commodity Markets Outlook in Eight Charts, the lender predicted that global commodity prices would fall by roughly seven per cent next year, the fourth consecutive annual decline. Energy prices are set to lead the downward trend, with a projected 10 per cent drop in 2026, following a 12 per cent fall in 2025.

The downward pressure on oil prices reflects subdued global economic activity, persistent trade tensions, and policy uncertainty and is compounded by ample oil supplies. Brent crude has already dropped 14 per cent in the first nine months of 2025 amid oversupply and weak demand, particularly from China. However, occasional price spikes were recorded due to geopolitical events and US sanctions on Russian oil.

“OPEC+ has gradually increased production targets throughout 2025, contributing to an approximate three million barrels per day year-on-year rise in global supply,” the World Bank noted.

“With demand expanding by less than one million barrels per day, the oil market is likely to face a sizable surplus in the coming year.”

The report also highlighted that natural gas prices have experienced significant regional variation. US benchmark prices rose 44 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025 due to strong liquefied natural gas demand, while European prices remained largely unchanged.

Looking ahead, natural gas is expected to stabilise in the United States in 2027 after a moderate 11 per cent increase in 2026, whereas European prices are projected to decline by 11 per cent next year.

The World Bank’s analysis points to broader risks influencing commodity markets, including geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, and shifts in global trade policy. Despite these uncertainties, energy markets are expected to remain oversupplied, keeping Brent crude prices on a downward trajectory.

“The expected moderation in oil prices is consistent with subdued economic growth and the continued expansion of oil production,” the report stated. “While temporary spikes may occur due to geopolitical events, the overall trend points to a further decline in 2026.”

Furthermore, the World Bank stated that metals and minerals prices are expected to remain broadly stable, while precious metals are projected to gain five per cent, following a record investment-driven surge of more than 40 per cent in 2025. Agricultural prices are anticipated to edge lower amid favourable supply conditions, with food prices stabilising and beverage prices declining by seven per cent next year due to expanding output.

The World Bank also warned that fertiliser prices, which have surged 28 per cent over the past year due to strong demand, trade restrictions, and production shortfalls, are expected to ease gradually in 2026, though remaining elevated compared with the 2015–2019 average.

“Commodity markets continue to face a complex mix of factors,” the report said. “Sluggish global growth, policy uncertainties, and oversupply in key sectors are weighing on prices, while extreme weather events, easing trade tensions, or changes in input costs could shift market dynamics.”

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NNPCL reiterates 2m bpd oil output target by 2027

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has announced an increase in Nigeria’s crude oil production to 1.7 million barrels per day, with plans to reach 2 million bpd by 2027 and 3 million bpd in the long term.

The Group Chief Executive Officer, Bashir Ojulari, disclosed this on Tuesday during the “Energy Talk” session at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC 2025), held in the United Arab Emirates, Channels reports.

In a statement signed by Andy Odeh, the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC Ltd, Ojulari said the company’s output growth was driven by redefined partnerships with international oil companies and indigenous producers, the removal of long-standing obstacles, and a renewed focus on shared value.

He reaffirmed NNPC Ltd’s commitment to collaborating with other OPEC members, African national oil firms and financial institutions to attract between $30 billion and $60 billion in fresh investments by 2030.

Ojulari noted that new government incentives, beyond the Petroleum Industry Act, are already drawing investment into deep-water exploration, dry gas development, and cost reduction efforts.

Highlighting key national energy initiatives, he cited the ongoing upstream revival projects, expansion of gas infrastructure, including the near-completion of the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano and Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben pipelines and the rollout of cleaner energy solutions, such as the Presidential CNG Initiative and autogas corridor expansion.

Ojulari urged global investors to form bold partnerships aimed at eradicating energy poverty across Africa.

Responding to questions from the session host and Pulitzer Prize-winning energy author Daniel Yergin, Ojulari described Nigeria as “a central player in Africa’s energy landscape,” stressing that NNPC Ltd serves as the “linchpin for driving energy sufficiency on the continent.”

He underscored Nigeria’s vast oil, gas, and renewable energy potential, adding that under President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, efforts are underway to transform the nation from an extractive economy into a diversified, investment-driven energy hub.

he explained, “Africa’s energy future must be built on pragmatism, partnerships, and purpose. At NNPC Limited, we are not just participating in the energy transition; we are shaping it from an African perspective. Our focus is pragmatic—grow production, monetise gas, deepen partnerships, and deliver value to Nigerians and global partners alike.”

Ojulari also echoed remarks by the UAE Minister of Industry and ADNOC CEO, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who advocated for “pragmatic, not performative” energy policies and called for $4 trillion in annual global energy investment.

“Our message to the world is clear: Nigeria is open for business, and NNPC Limited is fit for the future. We invite the world to co-invest in Africa’s energy transformation,” Ojulari added.

The ADIPEC conference, hosted annually by ADNOC, is one of the world’s largest energy gatherings. The 2025 edition, themed “Energy. Intelligence. Impact,” marks the 41st in the series.

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