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Electricity subsidy: FG to deduct N3.6tn from Federation Account

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The Federal Government has proposed a N3.6tn deduction from the Federation Account to fund electricity subsidies in 2026, 2027, and 2028, a move designed to distribute the financial burden across federal, state, and local governments, The PUNCH reports.

The move represents a decisive step by the Federal Government to confront the rapidly mounting electricity subsidy debt, which has severely constrained liquidity across the power sector, while also strengthening fiscal transparency by making subsidy obligations explicit and better accounted for.

The deduction proposal, detailed in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework Fiscal Strategy Paper for 2026–2028, analysed by one of our correspondents on Tuesday, reflects a strategic shift toward distributing the financial burden of the power sector across all tiers of government, amid growing concerns over unsustainable debts and systemic inefficiencies.

According to Table 6.2 of the MTEF document, which outlines “Other FAAC Deductions” under the Federation Account Revenue – Main Pool, VAT, and Stamp Duty, the electricity subsidy for 2026 is pegged at N1.2tn.

It is projected to remain at this level through 2027 and 2028, signalling the government’s commitment to stabilising the sector while preventing hidden liabilities from ballooning into a fiscal crisis.

“The document read, “Transfer to NBET (Electricity Subsidy) is estimated at N1.2tn in the 2026 budget proposal and projected to remain at N1.2tn each in 2027 and 2028.”

The proposed approach aligns with earlier statements by the Budget Office of the Federation, which indicated plans to end the practice of the Federal Government bearing electricity subsidy costs alone.

The Budget Office DG, Tanimu Yakubu, during a training and sensitisation workshop for ministries, departments, and agencies on the 2026 post-budget preparation process using the Government Integrated Financial Management Information System Budget Preparation Sub-System, said President Bola Tinubu had directed that electricity subsidy costs be made explicit, tracked, and fairly shared across tiers of government.

“If we want a stable power sector, we must pay for the choices we make,” he said. “When tariffs are held below cost, a gap is created. That gap is a subsidy. And a subsidy is a bill.”

He added that from 2026, the Federal Government would no longer treat electricity subsidies as an open-ended obligation borne solely by the centre, especially where policy decisions and political benefits are shared.

“In 2026, we will stop pretending that this bill can be left to the Federal Government alone, especially where the policy choice or the political benefit is shared across tiers of government,” Yakubu said.

According to him, the President has instructed that the existing electricity sector legal framework be invoked to ensure that subsidy sharing is practical, transparent, and enforceable.

“This means subsidy costs must be explicit, tracked, and funded, so they do not return as arrears, liquidity crises, or hidden liabilities in the market,” he said. “If any tier of government chooses affordability interventions, the funding responsibilities must be clear, agreed, and enforceable,” he stated.

Currently, the Federal Government finances electricity subsidies through direct budgetary allocations, primarily channelled via the Federal Ministry of Finance to the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc.

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NBET acts as an intermediary, purchasing electricity from generation companies (GenCos) and selling it to distribution companies (DisCos) at regulated tariffs, often lower than the actual cost of production.

The gap between the regulated tariff and the cost of electricity generation is effectively covered by government subsidies, which are meant to shield consumers from the full cost of electricity while maintaining stability in the power market.

However, this subsidy framework has placed a growing strain on federal finances, and accumulating unpaid obligations has caused a drastic increase in sector debt.

By the end of 2025, total outstanding sector debt, including unpaid obligations to generation and other power companies, is projected to rise to about N6.5tn, up from around N4tn earlier in the year, as a result of unfunded subsidy shortfalls and low payments to power producers.

This has prompted the proposed 2026 measure to deduct N1.2tn directly from the Federation Account for electricity subsidies, which aims to make payments explicit, transparent, and shared among federal, state, and local governments, a strategy intended to address both fiscal sustainability and operational efficiency in NESI.

By deducting funds directly from the Federation Account, the central revenue pool managed by the Federation Account Allocation Committee before revenue distribution, the government aims to encourage states and local governments to prioritise efficiency and provide targeted support for vulnerable households.

Providing further insight into the Federal Government’s proposed electricity subsidy funding framework, energy policy expert Habu Sadeik explained that the N1.2tn earmarked in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper will be deducted directly from the Federation Account Allocation Committee pool before revenues are shared among the three tiers of government.

According to Sadeik, the MTEF document clearly captures the N1.2tn electricity subsidy as a first-line deduction from gross FAAC revenue, meaning the amount will be removed before distributable revenue is calculated for the Federal Government, states, and Local Governments.

He explained that the MTEF-FSP, which is prepared every three years, sets the strategic direction for government budgeting and spending across the federation, including how revenues are shared and which obligations are treated as priority deductions.

“What the government has done is to provide for a deduction at source from the gross FAAC revenue to the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET) amounting to N1.2tn,” Sadeik said.

He noted that the approach is similar to the funding structure adopted for the Presidential Metering Initiative, under which about N800bn has been carved out from FAAC over time to fund nationwide metering, thereby reducing estimated billing and commercial losses in the power sector.

Under the new electricity subsidy framework, Sadeik explained, any deduction made from the gross FAAC pool effectively reduces what states and local governments eventually receive.

“For example, if total FAAC revenue in a particular month is N1tn and N200bn is deducted upfront, it means every state and local government has indirectly contributed to that N200bn,” he said.

He clarified that the proposed N1.2tn is not an ad-hoc payment but a planned transfer to NBET beginning in 2026, to be executed before revenue is distributed to sub-national governments.

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“This money is planned to be paid to NBET ahead of distribution. It is no longer something the Federal Government will try to settle later through its own budget,” Sadeik explained.

Historically, electricity subsidies have been funded solely through federal budgetary allocations, placing the full burden on the Federal Government. However, Sadeik noted that the new arrangement represents a fundamental shift in responsibility.

“The key difference is the burden,” he said. “Before now, the burden of electricity subsidy was on the Federal Government alone. Under this new framework, the burden is shared by the entire federation, the Federal Government, states, and Local Governments.”

He added that previous budgetary provisions for electricity subsidies were grossly inadequate when compared with the scale of liabilities in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry.

“In 2024, only about N450bn was provided in the budget. In 2025, it increased to N900bn, but these amounts were still far below the level of accumulated subsidy obligations,” he said.

The planned FAAC deduction, according to Sadeik, is intended to close this funding gap by making subsidy payments explicit, predictable, and sustainably funded, while ending the long-standing practice of masking electricity subsidies within federal fiscal operations.

Commenting on the proposal, the Executive Director and Convener of PowerUp Nigeria, Adetayo Adegbemle, applauded the initiative, describing it as consistent with the principles of federalism.

Adegbemle said the arrangement reflects a system in which all federating units actively participate in governance, noting that the Federal Government, states, and local governments would collectively contribute to the cost of electricity subsidies.

“This is in the spirit of federalism, where all federating units are involved in government. Under this arrangement, the Federal Government, the states, and the local governments will all contribute to the payment of electricity subsidy,” he said.

While noting that the full implementation details were still unclear, Adegbemle described the proposal as a positive development that allows all tiers of government to share responsibility for the power sector.

“I don’t know if the government has already worked out all the details, but this is a good development because all levels of government can come in and make their own contributions,” he added.

He explained that the policy would apply mainly to states that have yet to establish their own electricity markets under the amended Electricity Act. “As earlier mentioned, this will involve all states that have not created their state electricity markets. States that have already set up functional local electricity markets will be exempted,” Adegbemle said.

Although he reiterated his long-standing position that electricity subsidies should ideally be phased out completely, Adegbemle noted that the proposed framework would significantly ease the financial burden on the Federal Government while improving accountability across the sector.

“Even though some of us have advocated for the complete removal of the electricity subsidy, this move will drastically reduce the burden on the Federal Government and also bring more accountability,” he said.

According to him, shared responsibility would compel each tier of government to properly audit its electricity customer base and closely monitor connections to the national grid, thereby reducing inefficiencies and revenue leakages in the power sector.

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“This will force every level of government to take responsibility for auditing their customer base and their connections to the national grid,” he added.

Ministry backs moves

When contacted, the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, speaking through his media aide, Bolaji Tunji, said the ministry supports the proposed electricity subsidy funding framework, describing it as a step in the right direction for the power sector.

He explained that while the announcement was made by the Director-General of the Budget Office, the Ministry of Power aligns with the initiative and agrees with its underlying objectives.

“This announcement was made by the Director-General of the Budget Office, and his office should be contacted for further clarification on the implementation strategy. However, we agree with him on this,” Tunji said.

The implications of the proposed N1.2tn FAAC deduction for electricity subsidies are significant for state and local governments.

Under the current FAAC revenue-sharing formula, states are entitled to 26.72 per cent of the Main Pool, while local governments receive 20.60 per cent. With projected FAAC revenue for 2026 at about N41.06tn, this would translate to roughly N10.97tn for states and N8.45tn for Local Governments.

However, because the electricity subsidy is to be deducted upfront from the gross FAAC revenue, the amount available for distribution to subnational governments will effectively be reduced.

The deduction means governors may need to reassess allocations for critical sectors such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare to accommodate their share of the subsidy payment.

State energy commissioners react

Meanwhile, the Forum of State Commissioners of Power and Energy in Nigeria has said that it believes that President Bola Tinubu would not do anything against the interests of the masses.

FOCPEN Chairman, Prince Eka Williams, who also serves as the Commissioner for Power and Renewable Energy in Cross River State, told The PUNCH that the forum would make known its positions on the matter later after thorough understanding.

“If that’s what the Federal Government has said, we have to look at it and digest it very well. We have to look at the pros and cons. For now, we have not seen a copy of what the president said.

“But I’m sure what the government would do would be in the interest of Nigerians. I know he’s a  President who cares about the masses. We have not seen him sign into law an anti-people bill,” Williams said.

He said FOCPEN would listen to the analysis of experts before making its decision known to the public.

“Let experts look at the policy very well, not just relying on what people have interpreted it to be. Let experts look at it, and in no distant time, we will make a public statement,” he submitted.

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FG unveils ‘fly now, pay later’ credit scheme for domestic flights

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The Federal Government has introduced a new consumer credit product, “Fly Now, Pay Later,” aimed at making domestic air travel more accessible to Nigerians.

The Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation disclosed this in an announcement posted on its X handle on Tuesday, stating that the initiative would allow eligible customers to book local flights and repay the cost over time through structured financing.

According to CREDICORP, the scheme is designed to remove the upfront financial barrier that often delays important trips for many Nigerians.

“Through this initiative, eligible customers can book domestic flights today and repay the cost over time through structured financing, removing the upfront barrier that often delays important trips,” the statement read.

CREDICORP said the solution is being delivered in partnership with MyVisaro and Alert Microfinance Bank as part of efforts to expand access to responsible consumer credit.

To apply, the corporation urged interested individuals to visit visaro.ng and book a flight to any city in Nigeria.

 

FG unveils ‘fly now, pay later’ credit scheme for domestic flights

“At CREDICORP, we remain committed to expanding responsible consumer credit and enabling Nigerians live better now, including flying locally. Fly now. Pay later. Opportunity shouldn’t wait,” it added.

The corporation noted that the initiative aligns with its broader mandate to promote financial inclusion and improve access to essential services through innovative credit solutions.

The launch comes amid growing concerns over the rising cost of domestic air travel in Nigeria, with many citizens facing affordability challenges despite increasing demand for intra-country connectivity.

During the 2025 Yuletide period, one-way fares on some domestic routes rose by about.

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Airlines have attributed the high ticket prices to the rising cost of aviation fuel, foreign exchange constraints, and other operational expenses.

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Petrol, diesel vessels arrive Nigeria amid price surge

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As Nigerians contend with rising petrol prices, vessels carrying 129,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) and Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) are expected to dock at Lagos Ports between March 14 and 17, 2026, The PUNCH reports.

This came as officials of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority explained why some importers were still importing PMS despite the agency’s position that no petrol import licence had been issued this year.

According to the Nigerian Ports Authority’s Shipping Position Daily obtained on Monday, a vessel, Mosunmola, carrying 20,000MT of PMS, arrived at Lagos Ports via the Bulk Oil Plant on Sunday, March 14, 2026. Another vessel, Kobe, with 22,000MT of AGO, docked at Kirikiri Lighter Terminal Phase 2, Tin Can Island Port, on the same day.

On Tuesday, March 17, Bora is scheduled to arrive at Kirikiri Lighter Terminal 3B with 27,000MT of PMS, while Ashabi will bring 30,000MT of AGO to the same terminal.

Additionally, Oluwajuwonlo offloaded 15,000MT of PMS at Calabar Ports through Ecomarine Nigeria Limited on Sunday, March 15. Mosunmola will also deliver 15,000MT of PMS to Calabar Ports via a North West Petroleum Gas Co Limited terminal on March 17.

The vessel arrivals coincide with ongoing fuel price hikes nationwide. Nigerians currently face surging petrol costs after Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its gantry price for PMS to N1,175 per litre, pushing retail prices above N1,200 per litre. The increase has affected transport fares and driven up the cost of goods and services nationwide.

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Economic analysts, labour unions, and private sector leaders have called on the Federal Government to provide relief measures, citing rising crude oil prices driven by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Some stakeholders suggested subsidising petrol to mitigate the impact on citizens and businesses, warning that continued price increases could exacerbate inflation.

Petrol prices have reached between N1,200 and N1,300 per litre in several areas, with projections suggesting costs could exceed N1,500 or approach N2,000 per litre if the Middle East crisis persists.

Marketers speak

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria confirmed that independent marketers are prepared to lift imported products to ensure availability and competition.

IPMAN spokesperson Chinedu Ukadike said, “We, the independent marketers, are always on the receiving side. Wherever the product is coming from, and it is in the tanks of depot owners or NNPC, we will buy it. The most important thing is availability.

“If NMDPRA made a statement categorically that there is no import licence, I don’t know where this one is coming from. But we are ready to receive the products and sell. Maybe that will also breed competition, and this price volatility may have sustainability. So, I think it is also a welcome development.”

Ukadike added that the vessels might be operating under licences issued long ago and that delays at sea—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—may explain their late arrival.

“It might also be an old importation licence issued since last year. It is acceptable. The imported products would not have any impact on prices unless the price of crude oil declines. The price depends on the volume and cost of the product because there is nothing like a reduction in prices when Brent is still selling for over $100,” he said.

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NMDPRA explains imports

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has clarified that no import licences were issued in the first quarter of 2026, asserting that shortfalls in February were covered by leftover stocks from January and existing refinery output.

While IPMAN and other stakeholders supported the halt on fuel import licences, major dealers and importers argued that imports were still necessary to meet national demand. February figures show Dangote refinery produced an average of 36 million litres per day, while national consumption was about 56 million litres per day, leaving an apparent gap.

A source within NMDPRA, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, explained that the refinery’s unsold stocks were rolled over due to weather-related export delays in Europe at the end of 2025, closing the supply gap in February.

“The shortfall rolled over from previous stocks. These things are simple. Our fact sheets are published monthly. There were rollover stocks. Dangote didn’t export for a long time towards the end of last year. So, it was those rolled-over stocks that it supplied. Both marketers and Dangote are only jostling for market shares. Has there been a shortage? No!” the source said.

The regulator also refuted online claims that new licences had been issued, noting that licences are granted quarterly. “Those that were issued towards the end of last year were still being used. A licence for importation is not like taking money to the supermarket. It takes time for vessels to arrive. We have not issued any import licence this year,” the official said.

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Nigeria has historically relied on imported refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity. However, the operational Dangote refinery, producing 650,000 barrels per day, has shifted the downstream dynamics. NMDPRA confirmed that domestic refineries supplied 36.5 million litres per day in February 2026, with imports contributing just three million litres, representing roughly 92 per cent of the national daily supply.

Chief Executive of NMDPRA, Saidu Mohammed, warned against returning to heavy import dependence. “We have not issued a single licence for petrol importation this year. Some interests still push for large-scale importation despite our progress in domestic refining,” he said during a meeting with a PUNCH delegation at the agency’s Abuja headquarters.

The recent vessel arrivals, while ensuring availability, largely reflect past import licences and logistical delays, rather than new authorisations from NMDPRA.

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US-Iran war: Petrol price surge sparks relief calls

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There is pressure on the Federal Government to introduce economic relief measures as the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran drives up global crude oil prices and pushes petrol costs to record levels across Nigeria.

Industry operators, economists, labour unions and private sector leaders have urged the government to deploy the expected windfall from higher oil prices to cushion the impact on citizens and businesses, warning that soaring fuel prices are already deepening economic hardship.

The stakeholders sought some palliative measures to cushion the effect of the rising petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel prices, especially as this may heighten the volatility of the country’s inflation figures. Some even called on the government to subsidise the pump prices of petrol.

The calls come amid reports that petrol prices have climbed to between N1,200 and N1,300 per litre in different parts of the country, while projections from industry players indicated that prices could exceed N1,500 per litre and potentially approach N2,000 per litre if the Middle East crisis persists.

As the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran entered the third week with no reconciliation in sight, there are concerns that crude oil prices would continue to rise, and this would drag petrol prices above the affordability level.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has been blaming the war for its recent increase in gantry prices, which rose from less than N800 per litre before the war to N1,175 as of the time of filing this report. Recall that crude oil was around $68 per barrel during the crisis, but it stood at $103 as of Sunday evening.

Cut down taxes, charges

In an interview with The PUNCH, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria asked the Federal Government to cut off some taxes and charges on petroleum products to reduce the pump prices of fuel.

IPMAN spokesman, Chinedu Ukadike, said this became necessary to stop the price of petrol from further skyrocketing. According to him, there are charges from the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency, the Nigerian Ports Authority, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, and others.

The Managing Director of the Dangote refinery said last week that the company paid over 40 charges and taxes to different government agencies.

“The government should cut down some of these taxes, especially the NIMASA taxes and the rest of them. It will help in bringing down the price of petroleum products. Some of these depot charges, NPA charges, NMDPRA charges, and others – some of these things are supposed to go away now that we are facing a very serious challenge for us to get better. But if they continue to stay, it means petroleum products will continue to go high,” he said.

Aside from this, Ukadike said it is imperative to fix the pipelines to reduce the cost of distribution. “The government should give marching orders to ensure that these pipelines are repaired. Once these pipelines are repaired, it will also ease transportation and haulage, making fuels a bit cheaper. It is cheaper to transport fuel through the pipelines.

Ukadike noted that even if the government cannot subsidise petrol, it can try petroleum equalisation to make sure petrol sells at the same rate in all parts of the country.

“With the petroleum equalisation fund, the government will pay transportation costs of petroleum products to enable everybody to buy petroleum products at lower prices in faraway places. Because now, petroleum products are even higher in the North than in the Southwest, where the refinery is located,” Ukadike noted, praying that the Middle East tension is de-escalated as soon as possible.

He urged the government to deploy more CNG vehicles and kits to reduce transportation costs.

Invest in CNG

Members of the Organised Private Sector urged the Federal Government to channel the additional revenue from rising crude oil prices into strategic investments such as Compressed Natural Gas transportation, support for domestic refineries, and settling outstanding debts to gas suppliers to boost electricity generation, rather than returning to any form of fuel subsidy.

In separate interviews with The PUNCH, the stakeholders stated that while the surge in global oil prices due to the Middle East conflict has increased Nigeria’s earnings from crude oil exports, the government should deploy targeted support to the economy and avoid using the extra revenue to cushion petrol prices through subsidy schemes.

The President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said Nigeria must use the opportunity to deepen investments in domestic refining and alternative fuel options.

He urged the government to channel part of the oil windfall into supporting local refining capacity, including modular refineries. “Can we do a naira exchange so that a portion of this crude goes to refineries that are refining locally? People are saying that Dangote is not the only refinery in Nigeria. We have modular refineries that we can encourage to scale up. The government should not go back to fuel subsidies,” he said.

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The LCCI president noted that selling crude to domestic refineries in naira could help strengthen the local petroleum value chain and stabilise the supply of refined products in the country. Kupoluyi also urged the government to intensify efforts to promote the use of compressed natural gas in the transportation sector.

“Why can’t we have duty-free incentives in converting many of our vehicles, even private vehicles, from petrol to CNG? If we can take most of our public transport out of this petroleum situation and move them to CNG, you will see that the effect on petrol demand will come down,” Kupoluyi stated.

He added that encouraging solar power adoption would reduce pressure on the national grid and allow the electricity supply to focus more on industrial production.

Similarly, the Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, urged the government to deploy fiscal incentives to reduce the cost of production for operators in the petroleum value chain.

“The best the government can do is to take advantage of this additional revenue to deploy fiscal incentives to those who are producing the refined petroleum products. If there can be some compassion for players in the value chain to reduce their costs, they can, in turn, reduce their prices,” Yusuf said.

He added that the government could also use the additional oil revenue to expand mass transportation systems across the country. “Government should invest more in mass transit at all levels of government. More investment in public transportation will help reduce the pressure on people who rely on petrol for mobility,” Yusuf urged.

The economist also stressed that improving the electricity supply would significantly reduce the country’s dependence on petrol and diesel. “Government should also do more in providing electricity because if you have electricity, you rely less on diesel,” Yusuf said.

He noted that part of the additional oil earnings could be used to offset debts owed to gas suppliers, which have contributed to the persistent power supply challenges in the country. “If the government can address the debts to gas suppliers and improve electricity generation, people will rely less on buying petrol and diesel,” Yusuf stated.

NLC demands govt intervention

In a statement on Sunday, the Nigeria Labour Congress called for urgent government intervention, warning that workers are already struggling to cope with soaring fuel costs.

In the statement signed by its President, Joe Ajaero, the union said petrol prices have climbed to between N1,170 and N1,300 per litre, worsening hardship for Nigerian workers. “The Nigeria Labour Congress voices the collective anguish of millions of Nigerian workers bearing the brutal cost of a global crisis they did not create,” the statement said.

The labour union argued that the crisis has exposed weaknesses in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector and questioned claims that local refining would shield the country from global price volatility. It noted that the Dangote refinery had adjusted prices in line with global oil market movements, passing the higher cost on to consumers.

The NLC renewed calls for the government to restore operations at Nigeria’s public refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, arguing that stronger domestic refining capacity could help reduce exposure to international price shocks.

It also demanded measures to ease the economic burden on workers, including a wage award, cost-of-living allowance, expanded social transfers, and tax relief for low-income earners.

Citing projections by the Nigeria Economic Summit Group, the union said Nigeria could earn up to N30tn in additional revenue from rising oil prices linked to the Middle East crisis.

The labour body urged the government to channel any windfall into programmes that would ease the burden on citizens rather than allowing the funds to be lost through inefficiencies. “The expected oil windfall must be used to cushion the negative effects of the crisis on Nigerians,” the NLC said.

Meanwhile, the Managing Director of Afrinvest Securities Limited, Ayodeji Ebo, said Nigeria is benefiting from higher crude oil prices, but the same development is worsening fuel costs for consumers.

According to him, crude oil prices are currently trading between $95 and $105 per barrel, far above Nigeria’s budget benchmark of about $65 per barrel, which translates to stronger oil earnings and improved foreign exchange inflows for the government.

However, he warned that the surge is simultaneously increasing the landing cost of refined petroleum products. “Petrol prices could move from around N700–N900 per litre to above N1,500, with industry projections, including those by the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, suggesting prices could even approach N2,000 per litre if the Middle East crisis persists,” the economist told The PUNCH.

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He added that diesel prices have also surged by more than 50 per cent, approaching N1,700–N1,800 per litre, a development he said could significantly raise transportation, logistics, and production costs across the economy.

“These increases will likely push inflation up by another three to five per cent, meaning that while government revenue rises, household purchasing power declines,” he noted.

He added that the government can consider tax relief, transportation support, or limited subsidies delivered through a digital verification system so that intervention reaches the right beneficiaries and can be properly monitored,” he stated.

An analyst, Ilias Aliyu, said the current situation presents a paradox for Nigeria, where rising oil prices increase government revenue while simultaneously pushing up the cost of petrol for citizens.

“I definitely think we have an issue because the more the price of oil goes up, the more Nigeria gets more money, but the more citizens pay more money for the pump price,” he told one of our correspondents.

Aliyu argued that while the government may need to cushion the impact on citizens, any intervention should be carefully structured to avoid the abuse that plagued past subsidy regimes. According to him, a direct pump-price subsidy tied to the supply chain could help limit leakages.

“The best option is for the government to pay a subsidy at source, maybe from the pump price directly. If they give it to people, it may actually be syphoned. But if it is paid through each tank that has been loaded, for instance, from the Dangote refinery, it will reduce the chances of diversion,” he stated.

Aliyu noted that other oil-producing countries have used strategic reserves or regulatory buffers to stabilise domestic fuel prices during global crises, a capacity Nigeria may not currently possess.

“In some countries, their regulators have enough reserves that they can deploy to push the effect of rising prices for the next three months. But I don’t think we have such a buffer in Nigeria,” he doubted.

Given the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical crisis and how long it may last, he said it would be reasonable for the government to consider temporary relief measures. “It is ideal that they support citizens at this point, especially since we do not know how long this situation will last,” Aliyu added.

Businesses squeezed

The Chief Executive Officer of the CPPE, Yusuf, further said that the surge in global energy prices is worsening an already difficult operating environment for firms that rely heavily on petrol and diesel generators amid an unreliable electricity supply.

In an advisory note titled ‘Mitigating the Impact of Energy Cost Escalation: What Businesses and Government Should Do’, released on Sunday, Yusuf warned that escalating fuel costs are squeezing business margins and threatening enterprise sustainability.

“The current surge in global energy prices, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has intensified cost pressures for businesses across many economies. In Nigeria, the impact is especially severe because enterprises depend heavily on petrol and diesel to power their operations amid persistent electricity supply challenges,” he stated.

According to him, the rising cost of fuel is also pushing up transportation and distribution expenses, further increasing the overall cost of doing business.

“The combined effect is a significant escalation in operating expenses, mounting pressure on profit margins, and heightened risks to business sustainability, particularly for small and medium enterprises,” Yusuf said.

He noted that many businesses are already grappling with high inflation, elevated interest rates, and weak consumer purchasing power, warning that rising energy costs could further weaken economic activity if not addressed.

“Businesses are already contending with multiple macroeconomic pressures, including high inflation, elevated interest rates, and weak consumer purchasing power. The latest escalation in energy costs, therefore, compounds an already challenging operating environment,” he said.

Yusuf cautioned that without deliberate adjustments by businesses and supportive policy interventions by the government, the energy price shock could erode corporate profitability and slow economic growth.

To cushion the impact, the CPPE advised businesses to improve energy efficiency by reviewing their energy consumption patterns and reducing waste. “Businesses should intensify efforts to improve energy efficiency within their operations as a key strategy for managing rising fuel costs,” Yusuf said.

The organisation called for expanded fiscal and regulatory incentives to encourage the adoption of renewable energy solutions by businesses. These incentives, Yusuf said, could include tax relief for solar installations, import duty waivers on renewable energy equipment, and fiscal support for investments in energy-efficient technologies.

He also stressed the need for affordable financing to help businesses transition to alternative energy sources. He urged the government to expand electricity generation capacity, strengthen transmission infrastructure, and improve the efficiency and financial viability of electricity distribution networks across the country.

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NESG opposes subsidy

However, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautioned against the reintroduction of petrol subsidies despite rising transport and food costs. The policy advisory body stated this in a report titled ‘Boom Not Gloom: Nigeria’s Optimal Policy Response to the US/Israel–Iran War’.

According to the NESG, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East could create a temporary fiscal windfall for Nigeria through higher crude oil prices, but policymakers must resist pressure to increase spending or reverse major reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies.

The group warned that the approaching election cycle and rising cost-of-living pressures may prompt demands from political actors and interest groups for quick relief measures that could undermine fiscal discipline.

The report stated, “The perceived fiscal windfall, combined with the approaching election cycle, may generate pressure from subnational governments, legislators, and organised groups for higher spending and short-term palliative measures.

“Managing these pressures without reversing recent reforms will be a key test of fiscal discipline and policy credibility. In particular, calls to reintroduce fuel subsidies as a response to rising transport and food costs should be resisted, as this would risk reinstating the fiscal distortions that recent reforms sought to eliminate.”

The NESG explained that Nigeria historically suffered from what it described as the “oil-exporter–refined-product-importer paradox”, where rising global oil prices simultaneously boosted export revenues while increasing the cost of imported refined petroleum products.

According to the report, higher fuel prices raise logistics and transportation costs, which eventually filter into broader consumer price inflation across the economy.

The NESG stated, “Following the removal of the subsidy and the shift towards market-based fuel pricing, global oil price increases now transmit more directly to domestic pump prices. Higher fuel prices raise transportation and logistics costs, feeding into broader consumer price inflation.”

Nevertheless, the group said Nigeria now has an important buffer against global fuel supply disruptions due to the emergence of domestic refining capacity, particularly the Dangote refinery.

It noted that local refining has significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol and improved the resilience of the domestic fuel market during geopolitical crises.

“Even with these buffers, the inflation pass-through remains significant. Model simulations suggest that the oil price shock could add between 1.3 and 5.2 percentage points to headline inflation over the next two to three quarters, depending on the crisis scenario,” it said.

The group also warned that the global oil shock could temporarily slow Nigeria’s ongoing decline in inflation, even though the long-term disinflation trajectory may remain intact.

If prices climb to around $110 per barrel, inflation could increase by roughly 2.9 percentage points, while a severe crisis scenario with oil prices at $130 per barrel could push inflation up by about 5.2 percentage points.

The NESG added that without domestic refining capacity, the inflation impact would have been significantly worse. The report further explained that higher oil prices could strengthen Nigeria’s external position by boosting foreign exchange inflows from crude exports.

It is projected that the country could receive additional foreign exchange inflows of up to $7.3bn under a moderate crisis scenario, potentially supporting the naira and strengthening the Central Bank of Nigeria’s external reserves.

“The naira could initially appreciate before facing renewed depreciation pressures as capital flows reverse. Even in this scenario, net FX inflows could still reach about $18.6bn, enabling the CBN to increase reserves by up to $7.4bn, potentially lifting gross reserves above $57bn.

“Overall, the exchange-rate channel is supportive of naira appreciation and reserve accumulation under contained crisis scenarios, but becomes more uncertain under a prolonged global shock. The appropriate policy response is to allow the exchange rate to adjust to fundamentals, intervene only to smooth excessive volatility, and opportunistically build reserves during periods of strong oil inflows,” it stated.

However, the NESG cautioned that the benefits could be undermined if the conflict escalates into a prolonged global crisis that triggers capital flight from emerging markets.

The group stressed that the optimal policy response for Nigeria would be to save oil windfalls, strengthen external reserves, maintain subsidy reforms, and expand targeted social protection programmes for vulnerable households instead of blanket fuel subsidies.

It added, “Historically, oil windfalls have weakened fiscal discipline in Nigeria, particularly during politically sensitive periods. The NESG also recommended using part of the windfall to reduce Nigeria’s rising debt burden, noting that interest payments are projected to reach N15.52tn in 2026, consuming nearly half of federal revenues.

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