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Lagos-Calabar coastal road will raise GDP to $14tn — Expert

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The Development Agenda for Western Nigeria and the BRACED Commission, comprising Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Edo states, alongside other stakeholders, have agreed to explore investment opportunities along the 750-kilometre Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road.

The programme, held at the corporate head office of the DAWN Commission at Cocoa House, Dugbe, Ibadan, on Tuesday, was attended by representatives of governments from the South-West states and other relevant stakeholders.

Participants noted that if the opportunities presented by the road are properly harnessed, the project could serve as a game changer capable of increasing Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product to between $1.4tn and $14tn over the next 50 years.

In his welcome address, the Director-General of the DAWN Commission, Seye Oyeleye, said the commission convened stakeholders from the South-West and South-South regions to plan how to maximise the economic benefits of the road.

He said, “The biggest infrastructure programme in the last 65 years in Nigeria, which is the 750-kilometre Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road, requires structured development to avoid the mistakes of the past.”

Oyeleye stressed the need for collaboration among states to create industrial, green and tourism zones to maximise the economic potential of the project.

“We at the DAWN Commission, which is the think tank for the South-West states, decided to bring in the critical states along what we have described as a game changer for southern Nigeria. The biggest infrastructure programme in the last 65 years in Nigeria is the 750-kilometre Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road.

“What we planned to do was bring in the three South-West states—Lagos, Ogun and Ondo. We also invited the BRACED Commission, which covers the South-South states, because the road runs parallel to those states. The idea is that for the South-West region to harness the benefits of that road, there has to be structured development,” he said.

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The DG warned against repeating past mistakes associated with uncoordinated development.

“We must ensure that the mistakes of the past, where states worked in silos and pursued individual interests, are not repeated on this infrastructure. We have seen examples in different parts of the world where a coastal road becomes a major catalyst for development.

“It is important not to wait until the completion of the road before planning begins. From the discussions so far, we are already considering collaborative efforts on how Lagos, Ogun and Ondo can work together. We are looking at creating industrial zones, green zones and tourism zones.

“One of the outcomes we expect from this meeting is an agreement to establish a joint body that will supervise development along this corridor. There has to be a team dedicated solely to development along the coastal corridor, and this must happen as soon as possible,” Oyeleye added.

In a lecture titled Unlocking Economic Potentials of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway: Land Governance and Regional Alignment for the South-West Corridor, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Makaya Consult, Eko Atlantic City, Olawale Opayinka, projected that the coastal road could significantly increase Nigeria’s GDP over the next five decades.

He emphasised the importance of preserving the integrity of the corridor and ensuring coordinated development to prevent haphazard growth.

“There is a major opportunity in this coastal highway of over 700 kilometres, with the possibility of maintaining the integrity of that corridor. We have about 700 square kilometres of potential development.

“With our population expected to grow significantly over the next 50 years and our GDP currently at about $400bn, developments along that corridor could create enterprise value ranging from $1.4tn at the lower end to about $14tn at the upper end.

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“The values we have projected can only be realised if the states work together. If they fail to collaborate, the projected value may not be achieved. It does not stop with Lagos, Ogun and Ondo; it also involves Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Cross River. If they fail to do the right thing on their side, it could undermine the entire project,” he said.

He added that the project could significantly transform Nigeria’s economic outlook.

“We are talking about moving the Nigerian economy from under $400bn today to between $1.4tn and $14tn over the next 50 years. This provides an opportunity to build a multi-trillion-dollar economy and position Nigeria among the leading economies in the world,” Opayinka stated.

In his remarks, the Director-General of the BRACED Commission, Joe Keshi, also stressed the need for coordinated planning, citing examples of well-planned coastal roads in other parts of the world.

“This is the beginning of a conversation to ensure that we plan adequately and avoid the haphazard developments that have affected many roads in Nigeria.

“It would be unfortunate if a major infrastructure project like the coastal road eventually reflects the same pattern of unplanned development seen in some parts of the country,” he said.

Keshi emphasised the importance of political will among state governments.

“We are encouraging governors to develop the political will to understand that this road could be a game-changer for the southern states if the right steps are taken. The road itself is only the beginning; what comes after the road is what we are discussing here—how to ensure that it strengthens the Nigerian economy and does not become another example of unplanned development,” he added.

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Other speakers, including Commissioners for Physical Planning and Urban Development in Ogun, Ondo and Lagos states—Tunji Odunlami, Sunday Olajide and Olayinka Abiodun—as well as the Ogun State Commissioner for Culture and Tourism, Oluwasesan Fagbayi, emphasised the need for collaboration to ensure effective economic planning.

Similarly, stakeholders, including Muyiwa Ige; the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission South-West Zonal Head, Ololade Okeowo; Executive Director of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Yemi Ajao; retired Director of Federal Highways, Folorunso Esan; and Permanent Secretary, Lagos State Ministry of Environment, Tajudeen Gaji, stressed the importance of proper zoning, security and governance structures.

They noted that synergy among states, the Federal Government and relevant agencies would be critical to unlocking the full economic potential of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway.

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Nigerian states’ revenues rise 93%, but education spending drops — World Bank

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The World Bank says Nigeria’s 36 states recorded a 93 per cent increase in revenues between 2023 and 2025 but education received a declining share of the sector’s expenditure.

The bank disclosed this in its latest Nigeria Development Update, which examined how increased public revenues have influenced spending priorities across the federation.

The report was made available to the News Agency of Nigeria by the World Bank in Washington D.C.

According to the report, states’ aggregate revenues rose by approximately 93 per cent in real terms, while expenditure increased by 92 per cent during the period.

The report attributed the improvement partly to exchange-rate reforms, petrol subsidy removal, stronger revenue administration and increased allocations from the federation account.

It said states also benefited from refunds, settlement of longstanding federal obligations, intervention funds, and stronger Value Added Tax collections.

However, education’s share of total state expenditure declined from 14.9 per cent in 2021 to 12.1 per cent in 2025, according to the report.

Health expenditure remained broadly stable at approximately seven per cent, while social protection’s share increased from 1.4 per cent to 4.4 per cent.

The bank said capital expenditure increased significantly, accounting for 61 per cent of state spending, compared with 46 per cent previously.

Transport infrastructure recorded the largest increase, alongside substantial spending on housing, agriculture and other economic investments.

The report quoted Mathew Verghis, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, as saying that increased revenues provided the opportunity to improve infrastructure, education, healthcare, and water services.

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He said greater spending efficiency, accountability and improved service delivery were essential to ensuring that additional public resources benefited Nigerians.

The bank acknowledged improvements in states’ fiscal reporting, transparency and internally generated revenue.

It, however, stressed that stronger investment in human capital was necessary to translate economic reforms into sustainable employment and improved living standards.

The report also projected average economic growth of 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028, subject to sustained reforms and improved service delivery.

It urged federal and state authorities to ensure that increased public revenues translated into tangible improvements in Nigerians’ welfare.

NAN

Source: punchng.com

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Nigeria promotes investment without building production capacity – UNILAG don

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A professor of Comparative Political Economy at the University of Lagos, Adelaja Odukoya, has asserted that Nigeria’s economic policies promote investment without sufficiently strengthening domestic production.

Odukoya argued that the contradiction had weakened the country’s productive foundations, with policies encouraging investment and entrepreneurship while failing to create the technological capacity, productive employment and processing industries needed to drive sustainable development.

Odukoya spoke at the maiden edition of the Adeleke University Toyin Falola Annual Lecture, held on Thursday at the Performing Arts Theatre, Adeleke University, Ede.

The lecture had as its theme, “History, Power and Accumulation: Reimagining Africa in the Globally Disorderly Order.”

Odukoya identified several contradictions in the way the Nigerian state manages economic activity.

He said, “The state promotes investment without creating conditions for technological transfer. It encourages entrepreneurship without generating sufficient productive employment.

“It expands primary-product exports while leaving processing capacity undeveloped. It constructs infrastructure without establishing strong linkages with domestic production.”

According to him, the contradictions explain why increased economic activity and accumulation do not necessarily translate into development.

“Accumulation is not synonymous with development,” Odukoya stated.

He argued that genuine development should be measured by the expansion of productive, technological, institutional and human capabilities.

“A country could attract investment, export minerals and agricultural commodities and record economic activity while still failing to build the domestic industries and technological capabilities required for long-term development,” he said.

His argument was echoed by Prof Toyin Falola, who said Africa’s vast natural resources would continue to reinforce dependency unless governments developed the industrial, technological and institutional capacity to transform them into productive power.

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Falola said Africa’s resource problem was not simply one of historical exploitation, but also the continent’s failure to convert its resource endowments into power.

“The issue, however, is not just to repeat the history of exploitation. It is more important to know how Africa turns its great resources into power,” Falola said.

He argued that Africa could not afford to remain a spectator as global economic and geopolitical arrangements continued to change, stressing that resource ownership without the capacity to add value would not guarantee influence.

Falola said the continent required a combination of knowledge, government policy and industrial capacity to change its economic position.

“There must be universities that generate new knowledge; there must be governments that translate this knowledge into policies; there must be industries that add value to the continent’s natural resources,” he said.

He added that Africa needed more than improved infrastructure and stronger economies if it wanted to exercise greater influence in the global system.

“The future of the continent will require more than just better infrastructure, improved economies, and more effective political institutions,” Falola said.

Source: punchng.com

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Import waivers, insecurity end two-year agric trade surplus

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Import waivers meant to ease hunger and insecurity on farms have led to a deficit, ending a two-year run of surpluses, as Nigeria’s agricultural trade balance swung from a N740.27bn surplus in the first half of 2025 to a N56.13bn deficit in H1 2026, according to agriculture and trade experts.

Recent foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that agricultural exports fell by 33.28 per cent, or N985.14bn, to N1.98tn in H1 2026 from N2.96tn in H1 2025.

Agricultural imports fell by only 8.50 per cent, or N188.74bn, to N2.03tn from N2.22tn over the same period. The gap between the two movements produced a N796.40bn swing in the trade balance.

Nigeria recorded a N365.74bn deficit in H1 2023, when imports of N926.25bn far exceeded exports of N560.51bn. The balance then turned to a N194.92bn surplus in H1 2024 before it widened to N740.27bn in H1 2025.

In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, Agribusiness experts, including the Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Agricultural and Allied Group, Tunde Banjoko, explained that recent government policy led to the shift.

Banjoko said, “Some waivers were given for products like palm oil and rice, and the import tariffs were drastically reduced. It became more favourable for people to import than to patronise local producers.”

He said the waivers on food commodities hurt domestic producers, even though lower tariffs on tractors and manufacturing equipment helped them.

According to Banjoko, “The effect is that our imports will rise above our exports. Second, we will discourage local production. Thirdly, we will be reducing employment, because some factories will shut down if they are not able to compete.”

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Banjoko also said weak funding for processors compounds the problem. He said foreign direct investment flows mainly into the capital market rather than into production and processing, so local processors cannot scale.

He urged the Federal Government to speed up the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones programme. “We should speed up such projects where we can produce enough for our country and start exporting, not look for shortcuts by reducing prices,” Banjoko added.

Meanwhile, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, identified two major factors behind the deficit. He said the first was the Federal Government’s decision to allow some food imports to tackle runaway inflation.

Yusuf said, “The first is the decision of the government to allow for some food imports as a result of the challenges of food inflation, which at a point was getting almost completely out of hand.”

He added that insecurity worsened the supply gap and cut export capacity, stating, “Insecurity led many farmers to leave their farms. Many of them have ended up in IDP camps, and quite a number have completely abandoned farming.”

He added that farmers cannot export without output. Yusuf said, “You can only export when you have the output.”

Yusuf also said high input costs and falling produce prices have discouraged farming. He said, “Most of these inputs are imported, so the exchange rate situation has seriously affected the cost of inputs, and the prices of produce have gone down.”

He urged the Federal Government to cut the cost of fertiliser, agrochemicals, machinery and improved seedlings. He also called for a minimum guaranteed price for agricultural produce.

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Yusuf said, “The government can establish a threshold below which, if prices fall, it will give farmers some compensation. That is the way it is done in many other economies.”

Source: punchng.com

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