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Nigeria’s rent crisis deepens as two-bedroom flats hit N2.5m

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Nigeria’s rental market is spiralling, with two-bedroom apartments averaging N2.5m annually, far above rates of just a few years ago. From N250,000 flats in Benin to N20m luxury units in Lagos, tenants nationwide face surging rents that are deepening an affordability crisis and squeezing millions of households.

The Nigerian housing market is facing one of its toughest periods in recent history, as the median rent for a two-bedroom apartment in many parts of the country has climbed to about N2.5m annually.

This figure represents a sharp rise compared to what was obtainable a few years ago and highlights the deepening affordability crisis confronting millions of Nigerians. From Lagos to Kano and Ibadan to Port Harcourt, tenants are feeling the squeeze of rapidly escalating rents.

While N2.5m serves as a national benchmark, the reality is that rents vary wildly across cities and neighbourhoods  ranging from as low as N250,000 in some inner parts of Benin City to as high as N20m in Lagos’s luxury districts, according to data gathered from industry players in these various locations.

Why two-bedroom flats

The focus on two-bedroom apartments is deliberate. Across Nigeria, this category of housing is often considered the “middle ground” for families, young professionals, and middle-income earners. A single-bedroom apartment is typically viewed as temporary or transitional housing, while three- and four-bedroom units are often priced far beyond the reach of average tenants.

For many Nigerians, a two-bedroom flat represents a balance between affordability and comfort. Yet, with prices surging, even this once-modest option is increasingly out of reach.

A resident of Jos, Plateau State, Gloria Oyogho, explained how rent is shaped by finishing and infrastructure. “In standard areas with good finishing, water supply, and stable electricity, rents range between N1.5m and N2.5m. But in less standard areas, prices are much lower, around N500,000 to N800,000,” she told The PUNCH.

She added that hidden costs further inflate expenditure: agency fees, legal charges, and sometimes compulsory renovation levies. “I once saw a flat for N500,000, but it lacked running water, and residents depended on a well,” she said, underlining how amenities directly impact value.

In Abuja, the country’s capital, rent disparities are glaring. Legal practitioner Adedapo Adewuyi described the property market as a spectrum, from relatively affordable outskirts to premium neighbourhoods catering to the wealthy and political elite.

In Karu, Maraba, and Kubwa, rents for two-bedroom flats range between N1.5m and N2.5m. In Wuse 2, Jahi, and Jabi, the cost climbs to around N3m. In Maitama and Asokoro, two-bedroom units cost up to N10m annually, reflecting prestige and exclusivity.

“These high-end districts are magnets for executives, diplomats, and top government officials,” Adewuyi explained. “Location remains the single most important factor in Abuja’s property market.”

The imbalance has led to rising tenant frustrations. One lawyer in a social forum questioned whether it was legal for a landlord to raise a tenant’s rent from N1.5m to N2.8m just months before renewal. Such abrupt hikes are increasingly common.

Ibadan, traditionally considered an affordable city, is fast losing that reputation. Data analyst Oladayo Isaac recounted how his rent journey reflected the city’s transformation.

“In 2022, two-bedroom flats cost between N300,000 and N500,000. I rented mine for N350,000. Today, average rents are N800,000 to N1.5m. Landlords are even introducing service charges, something unheard of in Ibadan until now,” he said.

He also narrated how inspections have turned into bidding wars. “We were about 50 people at one viewing. The landlord raised the price on the spot because of demand. Another apartment I considered rose from N1m to N1.1m in a week.” Isaac lamented that Ibadan landlords are “copying Lagos models”, with arbitrary rent hikes and extra service charges.

In Ogun State, proximity to Lagos is a key driver. Architect Seyi Amusan explained that in Opic, two-bedroom flats cost between N2m and N2.5m annually. “The demand comes from workers who cannot afford Lagos rents but still want to be close to the city,” he said. Yet prices are far from uniform. Rural districts in Ogun remain relatively affordable, though infrastructure gaps often make them less desirable.

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Enugu also mirrors the nationwide pattern of disparities. Agent John Kalu said two-bedroom flats in Emene and Abakpa go for N800,000–N4m, while prime areas like New Haven and Independence Layout cost N2.5m and above. “Tenants must also add legal and agent fees, which can increase total costs by 10 – 15 per cent,” Kalu noted.

Lagos stands out as the most expensive and unpredictable rental market in Nigeria. The spread is dramatic: Ikorodu, N1.5m N2m; Ketu and Alapere, N2.5m upwards; Gbagada and Shomolu, N2.5m – N3.4m; Ikeja, N4.5m – N6m; Magodo, N4m; and Ikoyi and Victoria Island, N8m – N20m.

One tenant along the Alapere/Ogudu Expressway said his rent jumped from N400,000 to N1.2m in a single review. Such steep hikes, often without justification, reflect the cutthroat competition for housing in Lagos.

In Uyo, estate agent Mint Ebuk reported average rents of N650,000 – N5m. In Benin-City, agent David Asobur noted extremes: N250,000 for poorly serviced inner neighbourhoods and up to N2.5m for well-serviced areas. In Calabar, resident Impress Nkechi said prime districts like Parliamentary Extension rarely go below N1.5m, while the outskirts still offer flats for N700,000.

Kano’s housing reflects its socio-economic diversity. Agent Amin Ya Rabbi explained that in Nasarawa GRA, the cost of rent is from N5m and above; Zoo Road, Otoro, N2m N2.5m; and Badawa, Sabangari, N800,000 N1.5m. “These differences reflect not just income levels but also cultural preferences and accessibility,” he said.

In Port Harcourt, two-bedroom flats cost between N600,000 and N4m depending on location. GRA stands at the top, with apartments rarely below N3.5m. The city’s average N2.5m mirrors the national median.

Institutions react

The Assistant National Publicity Secretary of the Nigerian Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuers, Ayodele Olamoju, noted that rents in Nigeria have skyrocketed in a way that feels almost unbearable for many, especially those living in big cities.

He said, “What we’re facing is not just a random occurrence; it’s really the outcome of demand and supply struggling against each other, shaped by economic, social, and political forces. The housing market is under immense pressure, and without enough affordable options being delivered, the sharp rent increases keep hitting ordinary people hard. Take, for example, the average two-bedroom apartment that now goes for around N2.5m in major cities in the country. That figure alone tells the story of how far things have escalated. The surge is not because landlords simply want to exploit tenants; it’s because costs across the board have risen drastically. Inflation has eaten deep into every part of the housing value chain. From cement to steel, tiles, fittings, and even labour, prices have doubled or tripled within a short time, and naturally, developers and landlords are passing on these costs to tenants.

“Another major factor is our currency instability. The depreciation of the naira and the persistent foreign exchange shortages mean that anything imported for construction immediately becomes more expensive. Whether it’s finishing materials, fixtures, or even machinery, the exchange rate problem makes it harder to build at a reasonable cost. This has worsened construction inflation, and by extension, made rents climb faster than wages can catch up.

“All these issues combined show that the rent crisis is not a simple problem; it is structural. It exposes gaps in housing policy, weak supply systems, and the economic realities that every Nigerian is grappling with. Until there’s a deliberate effort to address both the economic pressures and the policy failures that feed into the demand-supply imbalance, rents will keep rising, and tenants will continue to struggle.”

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An estate surveyor, Olorunyomi Alatise, noted that rental prices in Nigeria, particularly in Lagos where the pressure is most acute, have spiralled uncontrollably in recent years, driven by both structural deficiencies and economic realities.

He said, “The chronic housing deficit in Kano, for instance, has created a persistent imbalance between supply and demand. On the other hand, inflation, currency volatility, and escalating construction costs have left landlords with little choice but to push rents upward, often indiscriminately. This dual force of scarcity and cost-push inflation has made shelter an increasingly elusive basic need for many.

“The troubling irony, however, is that these rent reviews rarely align with tenants’ earning capacity. Salaries are either stagnant or, where increased, fail to match the pace of inflation, leaving households vulnerable. The gap between rent obligations and income growth has widened so sharply that affordability has become a pressing crisis. For a significant portion of the population, rent now consumes a disproportionate share of monthly earnings, leaving little for other essentials and pushing many towards overcrowded, inadequate housing or outright displacement.

Addressing this pervasive challenge requires a deliberate, multi-pronged response.

Affordable “housing delivery must be prioritised through mass housing schemes supported by government and private developers. Policy innovations such as incentivising longer, stable leases, regulating the spread of short-term rentals, and publishing a transparent rent index for both rents and property sales would bring sanity and predictability to the market. Additionally, construction costs can be reduced by encouraging the use of local building materials and granting tariff relief on essential inputs. Without such systemic interventions, the housing affordability gap will continue to widen, deepening social and economic inequalities.”

Meanwhile, the president of the Association of Housing Corporations of Nigeria, Eno Obongha, noted that the reasons for the rent hike were not far-fetched.

He said, “When demand is higher than supply, prices must go up. The supply end is limited because building material prices are very high. Most of the imported materials are also affected by the dollar value. The processes for obtaining housing loans from development finance institutions are equally cumbersome.

“There must be a deliberate effort by federal, state and local governments in Nigeria to increase the housing stock for the benefit of medium- and low-income earners. The housing deficit affects the medium- and low-income earners, and these days, because of the economic hardship, many high-income earners are leaving big properties to compete for two- and three-bedroom units. Finally, there are no rent control laws to regulate rents charged by landlords.”

A builder, Awolusi Femi, noted that the steady rise in rental prices across the country is driven by a complex mix of economic and structural factors.

He said, “One of the most pressing issues is the increasing cost of land. As urban centres expand and demand for prime locations intensifies, the value of land continues to soar. Land scarcity in major cities has further heightened competition, making property acquisition an expensive venture. This, in turn, pushes landlords and developers to pass on these costs to tenants in the form of higher rent, making housing less affordable for the average citizen.

“Beyond land costs, the relentless surge in building material prices plays a significant role. Materials such as cement, steel, roofing sheets, and finishing products are experiencing constant price hikes, largely influenced by inflation, import dependence, and supply chain disruptions. These rising costs not only impact new construction projects but also existing buildings. Landlords are compelled to adjust rents upward to cover maintenance expenses, since even routine repairs now require expensive materials. Consequently, tenants are bearing the brunt of these inflationary pressures.

“Another key factor is the rising cost of labour, both skilled and unskilled. Masons, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, and general labourers have steadily increased their charges due to the high cost of living and limited availability of trained professionals. For property developers, this translates to higher project costs, while for landlords, it means greater expenses in maintaining or upgrading their properties. Inevitably, these additional costs are transferred to tenants through higher rental fees. Altogether, the combination of expensive land, soaring material prices, and costly labour has created a rental market that is becoming increasingly unsustainable for many households.”

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Historical context

Nigeria’s rent crisis didn’t happen overnight. Analysts trace the surge to several long-standing issues. Urban migration is one of them, as Nigeria’s cities have swelled dramatically since the 1990s. Lagos alone receives an estimated 600,000 new residents annually.

Inadequate housing supply is also another issue. Government housing schemes have consistently fallen short of targets. The national housing deficit is estimated at 28 million units. High construction costs are considered too, as the prices of cement, iron rods, and finishing materials have soared due to inflation and foreign exchange challenges.

Speculative real estate is an issue, as developers and landlords often price properties far above market reality, targeting elites and expatriates rather than average citizens.

Behind the numbers are real struggles. Families are increasingly forced to relocate to the outskirts, endure longer commutes, or downgrade to smaller apartments. Many middle-income earners now spend over 40 per cent of their salary on rent, far above the 25–30 per cent recommended globally.

Some households face eviction after failing to meet sudden rent hikes. Others are pushed into overcrowded flats, worsening urban slum conditions. For younger Nigerians, the dream of independent living is increasingly delayed, with many staying longer in family homes.

Experts speak

Acting Dean of the Faculty of Management and Social Sciences at West Midlands Open University, Lagos, Dr Timilehin Olubiyi, described the situation as alarming. “Rent now consumes a disproportionate share of income. Families are forced to choose between paying rent and meeting basic needs like healthcare and education,” he said.

Olubiyi proposed three urgent steps, including affordable housing policies. He said the government should partner with private developers to build low- and middle-income homes and called for rent control measures by limiting annual increases to prevent arbitrary hikes.

On stricter urban planning, he said there should be infrastructure expansion to new districts to ease pressure on city centres. He emphasised that Nigeria’s housing crisis is not insurmountable, stating that “with the right policies, investment, and community involvement, affordable housing can become a reality.”

Possible solutions

Experts noted that public-private partnerships that entail joint projects between the government and private developers can increase housing stock. Rent-to-own schemes that are already tested in parts of Lagos and Abuja could be expanded nationally.

Also, offering tax breaks to landlords who maintain affordable rents could encourage moderation. Cooperative housing models where communities pool resources to build shared housing can provide alternatives for low-income families. Digital transparency, where online rent portals are concerned, could standardise pricing and reduce exploitation by agents.

Conclusion

Nigeria’s rent crisis is worsening by the year. With two-bedroom flats averaging ₦2.5m, millions of households now struggle to secure decent shelter. The disparities, ₦250,000 in some Benin-City neighbourhoods versus ₦20m in Ikoyi, highlight a deeply fragmented housing market.

Unless urgent steps are taken, the affordability gap will widen, social tensions will increase, and urban poverty will deepen. The question now is whether government and private stakeholders can act quickly enough to prevent the dream of decent housing from slipping further away for millions of Nigerians.

For many tenants across the country, the next rent cycle could determine not just where they live, but whether they can continue to live with dignity at all.

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Nigerians spend N50bn on US visa applications

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Nigerians spent more than N50bn on US visa applications between 2023 and 2024, despite a sharp decline in approvals as Washington tightened immigration controls and increased scrutiny of applicants.

An analysis of the Intelpoint report, using data from the US Department of State, shows that 201,200 non-immigrant visas were issued to Nigerians between 2023 and 2024. At a standard application fee of $185 per applicant, Nigerians spent approximately $37.2m, equivalent to N50.7bn at an average exchange rate of N1,360 to the dollar.

Visa issuances declined by about 23 per cent, falling to 87,300 in 2024 from 113,900 in 2023, a reduction of 26,600 visas. The PUNCH could not obtain comparable figures for 2025 at the time of reporting.

Business and tourism travel dominated approvals in 2024, with B1/B2 visas accounting for 83 per cent of total issuances, while student visas (F1) represented about seven per cent. Exchange visitor visas (J1) and other temporary categories made up the remainder.

Africa’s most populous nation remained a significant source market for the United States, accounting for about 0.8 per cent of global non-immigrant visa issuances in 2024, the data showed.

Former President of the National Association of Nigeria Travel Agencies, Susan Akporiaye, said Nigerians’ travel behaviour is driven by more than economic conditions, noting a strong cultural inclination toward mobility.

“People would say it’s because of the economy, but I share a different view. Nigerians are generally migrants; they love travelling.

We are like the Chinese of Africa,” Akporiaye told The PUNCH.

The executive argued that most Nigerians who travel abroad return home, and only a small proportion remain outside the country permanently. “There is so much noise of Nigerians staying back. The ones who travel and return are far more than those who stay back. It’s not up to 10 per cent that don’t return,” she stated.

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The decline in visa issuances comes amid a series of policy changes introduced after Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, which have gradually tightened requirements for Nigerian applicants.

In July 2025, the US Department of State announced that most non-immigrant and non-diplomatic visas issued to Nigerian citizens would be restricted to single-entry permits valid for three months, with existing visas unaffected.

In August, applicants were required to disclose all social media usernames used over the previous five years on DS-160 forms, with officials warning that omissions could lead to visa denial or ineligibility.

Akporiaye also noted that travel demand cuts across income levels, from affluent individuals to ordinary citizens travelling for social events. “Nigerians like to explore. We travel for birthdays, weddings, and other ceremonies. I’m not talking about people like Dangote or Otedola, but ordinary Nigerians you don’t even know,” she said.

The expert, however, acknowledged that demand for US travel has softened relative to other destinations, citing operational and policy-related constraints.

“The demand has reduced for some destinations like the US, and it’s becoming worse now. Conditional requirements and operational changes at the US Embassy in Abuja have made access more difficult, including the consolidation of services in Lagos,” she stated.

“There are stories about visas being cancelled or Nigerians getting deported, and that makes people a bit sceptical. But other destinations are still booming.”

Further tightening followed in December 2025, when the US Mission in Nigeria said Washington expanded travel restrictions to include partial limitations on Nigeria and five other countries, effective January 1, 2026.

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An executive at Travel and Tours Limited, Maureen Chimaobi, said securing a US visa has become increasingly difficult over the past year, with many first-time applicants facing steep odds despite completing all required procedures.

“Last year, getting a US visa drastically reduced, especially if you are a first-time traveller or first-time applicant. It’s almost a no-go area,” Chimaobi told our correspondent.

She noted that applicants continue to pay visa fees, schedule appointments and attend interviews, but approvals have become far less predictable. “You pay your visa fee, book your appointment and go for submission. Most of the time, they don’t give it,” the agent said.

The trend reflects growing concerns among travel operators about declining approval rates for Nigerian applicants, even as demand for overseas travel remains strong. Chimaobi said rejection levels have remained high throughout the period under review, particularly for individuals with limited international travel history.

The tougher environment is also influencing destination choices. More Nigerians are turning to countries where visa approvals are perceived to be more attainable, provided applicants can demonstrate sufficient financial capacity and present strong documentation.

“I think most countries still offer a 70 to 80 per cent chance of getting a visa, depending on the quality of your documents and your financial status,” Chimaobi revealed.

She identified the United Kingdom as one of the destinations with relatively stronger approval prospects, although she cautioned that British authorities have also hardened their assessment processes in recent months.

France and other countries within the Schengen area, once considered more accessible to Nigerian travellers, have become increasingly selective, especially toward first-time applicants, she added.

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“Before now, France used to issue visas more easily, but most Schengen countries have become difficult over time, particularly for first-time travellers,” Chimaobi said.

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Petrol imports crash by N2tn to N87bn; see why

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Nigeria’s spending on the importation of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol, plunged by over 96 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, marking a dramatic shift in the country’s fuel supply landscape and signaling the growing impact of local refining capacity.

Latest foreign trade statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that only N87.401bn was spent on the importation of Motor Spirit Ordinary, the official trade classification for petrol, between January and March 2026.

The figure represents a sharp decline of N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, compared to the N2.271tn spent on petrol imports during the corresponding period of 2025. The development is particularly significant as petrol, which had consistently ranked among Nigeria’s most imported commodities for years, was completely absent from the list of the country’s top traded products in the first quarter of 2026.

An analysis of the NBS data by our correspondent showed that petrol did not feature among the top 19 traded products with the rest of the world, Africa, or West Africa during the review period.

Instead, the leading traded products included crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, gas oil, durum wheat, machines for reception, conversion and transmission of data, used vehicles, motorcycles, agricultural seeders, medicaments, aircraft parts, butanes, petroleum bitumen, sugar cane, herbicides and fuel additives.

The report read, “The value of total imports stood at N13,619.33bn in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 18.17 per cent decrease from the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 (N16,644.42bn) and a 21.05 per cent decrease compared to the value recorded in Q4 2025 (N17,250.93bn).

“Analysis of Nigeria’s import trade reveals that China remained the leading source of imports in the first quarter of 2026, followed by the United States of America, India, Germany, and the United Arab Emirates. The most imported commodities during the quarter were petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals (crude), gas oil, durum wheat, machines for the reception, conversion, and transmission of voice, images, or data, and used vehicles with diesel or semi-diesel engines.

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“The value of other oil products imported in Q1 2026 stood at N748.10bn, reflecting an 85.05 per cent decrease from N5,005.22bn in Q1 2025 and an 81.38 per cent decrease from N4,018.31bn recorded in Q4 2025.”

The latest import figure is also the lowest quarterly amount spent on petrol imports since at least 2022, according to available trade records reviewed by our correspondent.

Data from previous years showed that Nigeria spent N2.694tn on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2022. The import bill declined by N661bn, or 24.5 per cent, to N2.033tn in the corresponding period of 2023.

However, petrol import spending surged by N1.780tn in 2024 to N3.813tn, representing an increase of 87.6 per cent year-on-year. The figure later dropped by N1.542tn, or 40.4 per cent, to N2.271tn in the first quarter of 2025 before plunging by a massive N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, to N87.401bn in the first quarter of 2026.

The latest figure means that for every N100 spent on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2025, only about N4 was spent during the same period in 2026. The NBS data also highlighted the changing structure of Nigeria’s petrol import trade profile over the years.

According to the report, the total trade value involving the petroleum product stood at N7.705tn in 2022. This declined marginally by N194bn, or 2.5 per cent, to N7.511tn in 2023.

Trade value, however, more than doubled in 2024, rising by N7.907tn, or 105.3 per cent, to N15.418tn, the highest level during the period under review. The figure subsequently fell by N5.045tn, or 32.7 per cent, to N10.373tn in 2025, reflecting changing trade dynamics in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

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The PUNCH reports that the sharp reduction in petrol imports reflects the increasing contribution of domestic refining facilities to fuel supply, reducing Nigeria’s dependence on foreign suppliers and helping conserve foreign exchange.

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported petrol despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, owing largely to the poor performance of state-owned refineries and inadequate domestic refining capacity.

The trend began to change following investments in local refining and the gradual increase in output from domestic refineries, which have reduced the need for large-scale fuel imports.

The sharp decline in petrol imports in the first quarter of 2026 comes amid growing domestic refining capacity, particularly from the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began supplying petrol to the Nigerian market in 2024.

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported Premium Motor Spirit despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer. The country’s state-owned refineries operated far below capacity for years, forcing marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company to spend trillions of naira annually importing fuel to meet domestic demand.

The commissioning of the 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery in Lekki, Lagos, marked a turning point in the downstream petroleum sector. Since commencing petrol production, the refinery has steadily increased output, supplying marketers, industrial users and fuel distributors across the country.

In January, the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported that Dangote refinery supplied an average of 40.1 million litres of petrol daily, accounting for 61.78 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol supply. Imported fuel contributed 24.8 million litres per day during the month.

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It increased significantly in February as imports collapsed. The refinery supplied about 36.5 million litres per day, while imports dropped to roughly 3.1 million litres per day, meaning locally refined fuel accounted for more than 92 per cent of national supply.

According to the NMDPRA March fact sheet, Dangote remained the sole domestic supplier of petrol, supplying 34.2 million litres per day. Imports rose slightly to 5.9 million litres daily, bringing total supply to about 40.1 million litres per day.

Supply rebounded strongly in April. Dangote supplied 40.7 million litres per day to the domestic market, while imports declined further to 3.7 million litres daily. Total petrol supply stood at 44.4 million litres per day, giving the refinery a market share of approximately 92 per cent of locally consumed fuel and about 80–92 per cent of overall supply, depending on the methodology used.

The disappearance of petrol from the list of top imported products is expected to strengthen arguments that local refining is beginning to alter Nigeria’s trade patterns, lower import dependence and reshape the country’s foreign exchange requirements.

The sustained reductions in fuel imports could improve Nigeria’s trade balance, reduce pressure on the naira and retain more value within the domestic economy, provided local production continues to meet demand.

The first-quarter data therefore represents one of the clearest indications yet of a major shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, with petrol imports falling to levels not seen in more than four years.

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Nigerian workers deserve a living wage; read details

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THIS is a debate that never goes away for too long: what is due to Nigerian workers? The renewed agitation over workers’ wages, triggered by a fresh Nigeria Governors’ Forum proposal to raise the national minimum wage to N100,000 per month, only confirms that the country is trapped in an endless cycle of wage adjustments that inflation quickly renders meaningless.

This means that the issue is not just about the size of the minimum wage. Rather, it is about whether Nigerian workers can afford to live with dignity.

That is why the conversation must shift from a statutory minimum wage to a genuine living-wage regime – and a stable economy.

The proposal by the Chairman of the NGF, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, has already been rejected by organised labour.

The Nigeria Labour Congress, through its spokesman, Benson Upah, dismissed N100,000 as grossly inadequate and argued that, given current realities, a realistic wage would be closer to N1 million per month!

The Federal Workers Forum also condemned the proposal as a “Greek gift,” insisting that it bears little relationship to prevailing economic conditions.

While the NLC’s N1 million demand may appear excessive to many, the underlying argument deserves serious attention.

The current N70,000 minimum wage approved in July 2024 has already been overtaken by inflation. Like every previous wage increase in Nigeria’s history, its real value has been rapidly eroded.

The country’s minimum wage trajectory elucidates this. It rose from N18,000 in 2011 to N30,000 in 2019 and then to N70,000 in 2024. Yet each increase was followed by soaring inflation that wiped out most of the gains.

It is alleged that some states have yet to implement the minimum wage for grassroots workers, local government employees and primary school teachers.

Dataphyte estimates that the real value of the previous N30,000 wage had collapsed to barely N11,708 by mid-2024. The current N70,000 wage is clearly following the same path.

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The CBN reported that workers lost N2.79 trillion in purchasing power in 2024 alone due to inflation. That explains why workers who celebrated the 133 per cent wage increase in 2024 now find themselves struggling to survive less than two years later.

Nothing illustrates the crisis more vividly than the National Bureau of Statistics and Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition Cost of a Healthy Diet data.

According to an analysis by The Whistler, a healthy diet for one adult now costs an average of N1,541 per day or N46,230 per month, excluding meal preparation costs.

This means that a worker earning N70,000 is left with just N23,770 after feeding only himself.

For an average Nigerian household of 5.06 persons, the monthly cost of a healthy diet rises to N233,923 — equivalent to 334 per cent of the current minimum wage.

In other words, the average worker cannot afford the minimum nutritional requirements recommended by global health standards.

Even the governors’ proposed N100,000 wage would still leave most families far below the subsistence level. It is therefore difficult to dispute labour’s argument that Nigeria’s wage structure has become detached from economic reality.

However, raising wages alone cannot solve the problem.

The organised private sector has raised legitimate concerns about its ability to pay across the board.

The president of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said the private sector should not be compelled to pay the same wage level as the government if businesses could not afford it.

The Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Adewale Oyerinde, points out that the process for arriving at a National Minimum Wage is “rooted in widely acclaimed tripartite negotiations and consultation and not just political statements, without any empirical data to back up the quantum of increase.”

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise warned that many businesses are already struggling under crushing energy costs, logistics bottlenecks, foreign exchange challenges, multiple taxation and weak consumer demand. All this needs to be addressed.

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Indeed, any wage increase that is unsupported by productivity growth and economic reforms risks fuelling another inflationary spiral. Businesses facing higher wage bills often pass costs to consumers, thereby worsening the very inflation the wage increase seeks to offset.

Nigeria must therefore avoid the false choice between workers’ welfare and business survival.

The real objective should be a living-wage framework tied to measurable economic indicators and supported by aggressive cost-of-living reduction policies.

This is the model increasingly adopted across many countries. In South Africa, the national minimum wage is approximately 28.79 rand per hour, translating to well over N250,000 monthly at prevailing exchange rates.

Algeria’s minimum wage is around 20,000 dinars (N204,000) monthly, while Egypt recently increased its public-sector minimum wage to 7,000 Egyptian pounds (N184,000).

Kenya’s minimum wage varies by sector and location, but the average of 16,113 Kenyan Shillings (N169,500) remains significantly higher in purchasing power terms than Nigeria’s.

Nigeria should not be setting wage policy as though inflation were a temporary inconvenience.

Food inflation remains the principal driver of household hardship, standing at 16.06 per cent YoY and higher than headline inflation of 15.69 per cent as of April.

Massive investments in agricultural productivity, rural roads, storage infrastructure and security in farming communities are urgently needed.

The absurd situation where healthy diets are more expensive in some rural communities than in urban centres because of poor roads must end.

The government must also address transport costs through investments in rail, inland waterways and public transportation systems.

Electricity tariffs remain a major burden on both households and businesses. Lowering energy costs would immediately improve living standards while enhancing business competitiveness.

Investments in health by ramping up health insurance enrolment and better access to quality care, and in education, via massive infrastructure improvements and teacher recruitment, will reduce household expenditure on these essentials.

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Furthermore, labour’s argument regarding improved government revenues deserves scrutiny.

Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, higher oil prices have boosted Nigeria’s earnings. It is estimated that the windfall has added more than N5 trillion to government coffers.

Whether that figure is an exaggeration or not, governments are receiving historically high FAAC allocations, averaging over a 50 per cent surge for states in 2025 and all tiers sharing up to N2 trillion in 2026.

Nigerians deserve to see some direct benefit from these gains through targeted subsidies for food production and transportation, public transit and essential services.

More fundamentally, wage determination should no longer depend on sporadic political negotiations every few years.

The National Minimum Wage Act should be amended to provide for automatic annual adjustments linked to inflation, productivity and cost-of-living indicators. Such a mechanism would prevent workers from suffering prolonged erosion of purchasing power before the government responds.

Above all, policymakers must remember that they are insulated from the hardships confronting ordinary citizens.

Governors, legislators, political appointees and senior public officials enjoy humongous allowances, subsidised accommodation, official vehicles, security details and generous expense accounts.

They do not queue for transport. They do not worry about school fees after buying food. They do not feel inflation in the same way as the average worker.

That disconnect explains why debates over N70,000, N100,000 or even N1 million often miss the central issue.

The goal of wage policy is not simply to keep workers alive so that the job is done. It is to ensure that honest labour can provide a decent standard of living.

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