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N804bn arms imports spark calls for local production

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Nigeria spent N804.10bn on arms and ammunition imports between 2020 and the second quarter of 2025, according to data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Despite moves by the government to expand domestic production, recent data revealed that the import bill remains on the rise, raising concerns about foreign exchange depletion and national security dependence on external suppliers.

This came as local manufacturers increased the call for deeper collaboration with the country’s Armed Forces for the production of some arms and ammunition domestically, stressing that this would considerably reduce the huge FX spent on arms imports.

Foreign trade data from the NBS showed that in 2020, Nigeria imported arms and ammunition, including parts, worth N29.24bn. The import bill surged to N72.50bn in 2021 before dropping to N28.24bn in 2022. In 2023, imports jumped again to N127.16bn. By 2024, it rose astronomically to N520.02bn, recording the highest importation of arms and ammunition in the five years.

Between January and June 2025, Nigeria imported arms worth N26.95bn, indicating that the upward trend had not abated. Data showed that in the first quarter of 2025, arms and ammunition imports stood at N22.08bn, with an additional N4.87bn imported in the second quarter. This brought the total to N26.95bn in the first half of 2025 alone.

Official data showed the depth of the surge when compared with the corresponding period of 2024. In H1 2024, Nigeria imported N11.76bn worth of arms and ammunition, split between N10.72bn in Q1 and N1.04bn in Q2. But in the second half of 2024, Nigeria imported arms and ammunition worth N508.25bn. Split between the quarters: in Q3 2024, the country imported N24.40bn, and in Q4 2024, it imported arms and ammunition worth N483.85bn

Stakeholders react

Stakeholders say the persistent rise in arms imports proves that Nigeria’s local defence manufacturing capacity has not hit its stride despite government reforms. President Bola Tinubu, in November 2023, signed the Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria Act, which repealed previous provisions and sought to create a robust military-industrial complex through research, innovation, and private sector partnerships.

Two years into the implementation of the DICON Act 2023, reforms are off to a slow start. The import figures show that foreign dependence remains dominant.

Industry players, including the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria and the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, argue that heavy imports drain scarce foreign exchange. In separate interviews with The PUNCH, these stakeholders noted that buying weapons abroad often exposes Nigeria to political pressures from supplier countries, a factor that undermines the country’s sovereignty.

Local manufacturers are calling for stronger collaboration with the Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria. They insist that without scaling up indigenous production, the country will continue to burn scarce resources on foreign procurements while failing to unlock the economic opportunities in defence manufacturing.

MAN seeks inclusion

The Director-General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, revealed that the body was already engaging DICON to expand local defence production. He said, “We are in talks with DICON. And in MAN, we have members who manufacture military hardware. Collaboration is only a foregone conclusion. It would be nice to see private and public sector partnerships flourish in this regard, because this is a strategic as well as an economic game changer for Nigeria.”

Ajayi-Kadir stressed that DICON, once moribund, had shown renewed dynamism since its revival under the new law. He observed that a functional defence industry would address two strategic concerns: national security and economic stability.

He explained that local arms production would shield the country from external embargoes, strengthen territorial defence against insurgency, and save scarce foreign exchange. “There’s no doubt that investing in local arms and ammunition manufacturing would significantly improve the economy overall, in the sense that it is not only in terms of boosting our security,” he declared.

MAN’s DG added that Nigeria ought to pursue arms self-reliance for external sovereignty and internal security. “There was a time in this country that some modern nations refused to sell arms to us,” Ajayi-Kadir said.

“Self-sufficiency, or reduction in dependence on imported arms, will greatly enhance the capacity to defend the territorial integrity and to protect the lives of citizens, particularly now that we are having insurgency and activities of non-state actors. In terms of securing lives and preserving foreign exchange, local production will greatly help.”

Ajayi-Kadir argued that foreign exchange saved from reducing arms imports could be channelled into raw materials, spare parts, and other productive inputs. He added that indigenisation of defence technology could also position Nigeria as an exporter in the medium term. “It will also be able to get us to innovate in a way that we can have military hardware and technologies that are indigenous to us, which we could even export. It will deepen our economic stability and progression,” he maintained.

NASSI, CPPE speak

The National Vice President of NASSI, Segun Kuti-George, linked the ballooning import bill to weak local research and insufficient industrial participation. He noted that while small-scale players had yet to feature prominently in arms production, they could play a critical role if given access to science-driven innovation.

Kuti-George said, “Arms are generally used for defence. And when you have an excess of it, you export. When you are manufacturing locally, you are saving foreign exchange. God help you if your supplier is a friend of your attacker. Encouraging local manufacturing is very important.”

He urged Nigeria to learn from countries that deliberately invest in research and innovation to address security vulnerabilities. He cited Lithuania’s adoption of drone training from basic school and the emergence of private drone manufacturers in Abuja as examples of what deliberate research could achieve.

“We need to pay more attention to science and research. That is the only way forward. Let’s teach science. Let’s teach research in our universities. Let’s stop all these ideas of people just writing pieces and filing them away. We are living in a practical world now,” NASSI’s VP said.

Kuti-George advised that graduates of engineering and science in Nigeria should be producing machines and prototypes as part of their final projects, rather than submitting theoretical dissertations.

He stressed that linking education to practical research was key to reviving the industrial base. “Where is the machine that you are producing? Are you able to produce a garri frying machine? Are you able to produce something practical? That is the way. We need to do a serious review of our educational system,” he cautioned.

Kuti-George welcomed the government’s recent push on vocational colleges but called for a deeper emphasis on applied research to complement military innovation.

Director of the Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, affirmed Nigeria’s need to be self-reliant in defence manufacturing and avoid heavy importation of arms and ammunition. He welcomed the local manufacturers’ quest for deepening their partnership with the government as “a very good thing, and it’s something to be commended.”

He emphasised local production as the path to internal security, stating, “Local production is the way to go anytime and any day. It is good for self-reliance and for internal security. When it comes to security matters, the less import-dependent a country is, the better. Look at the biggest or the strongest countries in the world, they don’t rely on imports for their security apparatus or for their security equipment.”

Yusuf concurred with MAN that an increase in local manufacturing of defence equipment would help to reduce forex outflows and ensure sovereignty. “Building our domestic capacity in arms manufacturing helps with retaining foreign exchange and makes us a lot more secure, a lot more confident as a country, so that if we have security challenges, we can handle them by ourselves without depending on third parties.”

He welcomed the revamping of DICON, adding, “Those who moved in the government to set up a Defence Industrial Corporation of Nigeria, in Kaduna, had foresight. They had the foresight, and the whole idea was to ensure that much of our security equipment, arms, and ammunition are produced here.”

“It’s just that we didn’t follow through,” Yusuf noted, and decried the poor management in the past. “Once, we had to depend on a particular country for some arms or aircraft at the peak of the Boko Haram crisis, and they were giving us conditions before they could sell it to us. They gave us all sorts of conditions that were not properly aligned with our security strategy.”

DICON reforms

The Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria was established in 1964. Under the 2023 Act signed by President Tinubu, DICON is repositioned. The new law empowers the state-controlled firm to operate subsidiaries, establish a Defence Industry Technology, Research, and Development Institute, and provide a financing architecture to attract private capital into the sector.

Following President Tinubu’s assent, DICON signed memoranda of understanding with several firms in 2024, including X-Shield Solution Company Limited, Buckler Systems Limited, and Epsilon Bronberg Innovation Limited. The agreements were designed to build a military-industrial complex through public-private partnerships.

In July 2025, DICON announced a $2bn partnership with SP Offshore Nigeria Limited to expand local manufacturing of defence hardware.  Director-General of DICON, Major General Babatunde Alaya, said the partnership aligned with the government’s projection to achieve self-sufficiency in defence manufacturing by 2027. “This partnership will achieve the Federal Government’s projection of achieving self-sufficiency in defence manufacturing while reducing foreign importation by the year 2027,” he stated.

Similarly, the Managing Director of DICON Grey Insignia, Bem Garba, reportedly affirmed that the new law would directly impact the naira by reducing dollar demand for arms imports. “By localising production, we can retain more of our FX reserves and reduce the demand for dollars in the defence sector, easing pressure on the exchange rate. As the industry matures, Nigeria can position itself as a regional defence supplier, earning FX through exports,” he said.

Balancing security

Stakeholders argue that local defence manufacturing is not merely an economic policy but also a strategic necessity. With insecurity ranging from insurgency in the North-East to banditry in the North-West and kidnapping in the South, these stakeholders have cautioned that dependence on foreign arms is a dangerous liability.

Ajayi-Kadir warned that the country’s fragile foreign reserves should not be further eroded by massive import bills. He said, “We have scarce resources that we should have used to buy raw materials, spare parts, and machines that are not available locally for production, but we end up using them to buy ammunition. I believe this is both for a strategic purpose as well as for economic purposes.”

Kuti-George also emphasised that the more Nigeria invests in local innovation, the more it could reduce reliance on hostile suppliers. “If your supplier is a friend of your attacker, it now becomes an issue of who is the highest bidder. So, encouraging local manufacturing is very important,” he said.

Experts say the path to a self-sufficient defence industry will require more than legislation. The local defence industry needs stronger funding for research, stronger collaboration with private manufacturers, and reforms in science education.

For MAN, the next step is a deeper integration of its members into DICON’s supply chain. For NASSI, the priority is building a pipeline of innovators through vocational and research-based education. For DICON, it is expanding partnerships and ensuring that promised targets, such as the 2027 self-sufficiency goal, are met.

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Speed approvals, boost deepwater investments, NNPCL charges NUPRC

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has called on the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to deepen its investment facilitation role, particularly around deepwater projects, to keep Nigeria competitive in the global energy market.

The Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPCL, Mr. Bayo Ojulari, made the call in an interview published on Wednesday in The Upstream Gaze, a special edition of the NUPRC’s in-house publication, commemorating the Commission’s fourth anniversary.

Ojulari commended the NUPRC for key achievements over the past four years, including the digitalisation of licensing and regulatory processes, improved crude oil measurement and metering systems, the successful conduct of bid rounds that attracted new investors, and progress in gas flare commercialisation and new domestic gas supply obligations.

He, however, stressed the need for the Commission to go further by strengthening its regulatory efficiency and deepening investor confidence in the country’s upstream environment.

“Going forward, I would urge the Commission to continue to prioritise investment facilitation, especially around deep-water projects, and to create even more efficient regulatory approval cycles. The global competition for capital is fierce, and Nigeria must remain attractive to investments,” Ojulari said.

The PUNCH reports that the commission earlier this year unveiled plans to unlock an additional 810,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Nigeria’s deepwater oil fields through a new cluster and nodal development initiative.

If fully implemented, the additional output could raise Nigeria’s total monthly crude production by approximately 2.51 million barrels per day with condensates.

This would significantly strengthen the country’s revenue generation capacity and improve compliance with OPEC+ production quotas.

Speaking on NNPCL’s investment outlook under his leadership, Ojulari said the company’s top priorities include making gas a transition fuel, growing national oil and gas production, and enhancing domestic energy security.

“We plan to unlock Nigeria’s over 200 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves to drive power generation, industrial growth, and exports,” he said.

According to him, the company is also committed to delivering on President Bola Tinubu’s directive to raise national crude oil production to three million barrels of oil per day and gas output to 12 billion standard cubic feet per day by 2030.

Ojulari explained that NNPCL’s production growth targets would be realised through brownfield and greenfield developments across onshore and shallow-water terrains, facilitating major Final Investment Decisions in deepwater, and accelerating exploration in frontier basins.

He added that NUPRC’s continued regulatory support remains pivotal, as NNPCL and its partners currently contribute over 95 per cent of national production.

The NNPCL boss disclosed that the company’s deliberate reforms have begun yielding tangible results, especially through the establishment of the NNPC Production War Room, the Industry-Wide Security Architecture, and Periodic Industry Leadership Engagements.

According to him, these initiatives have collectively driven up production efficiency, improved collaboration, and reduced oil theft across major corridors.

“The War Room, launched in mid-2024, has been a major success story, streamlining processes, resolving production bottlenecks, and sustaining base production,” he said.

Ojulari said the Industry-Wide Security Architecture had improved coordination between private security contractors, government agencies, regulators, and host communities, leading to better crude evacuation, terminal recovery, and reduced pipeline vandalism.

He revealed that these efforts have lifted Nigeria’s annual average crude and condensate output to over 1.7 million barrels per day, the highest since 2020, restoring confidence among key industry stakeholders.

Ojulari also highlighted the company’s efforts to enhance domestic refining capacity and ensure long-term energy security.

“We are finalising the rehabilitation of our refineries and pursuing strategic partnerships to promote sustainable value creation and enhance commercial viability,” he said.

He added that NNPCL is supporting private sector refiners such as the Dangote Refinery and modular operators while securing long-term crude supply contracts and expanding logistics infrastructure, including pipelines and depots.

“Our goal goes beyond numbers. It’s about energy security, job creation, and building a vibrant downstream sector,” he added.

Ojulari reaffirmed that the company remains aligned with the Presidential Mandate to attract $60bn in new oil and gas investments by 2030, noting that ongoing collaboration between NNPCL and NUPRC is essential to achieving Nigeria’s production and energy transition ambitions.

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Nigeria imports 15bn litres of petrol despite Dangote refinery output

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Nigeria imported about 15.01 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) between August 2024 and the first 10 days of October 2025, representing nearly 69 per cent of the total national petrol supply during the 15-month period. This is despite the fact that the Dangote refinery started petrol production in September 2024.

Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority show that total PMS supply for the period stood at 21.68 billion litres, with 6.67 billion litres, or 31 per cent, coming from domestic refining. The data, titled Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply – August 2024 to October 2025), captured supply trends over 15 months, highlighting the gradual rise in local production and a corresponding drop in imports.

According to the breakdown, imported petrol averaged 44.60 million litres per day in August 2024 and rose to 54.30 million litres per day in September 2024, marking the peak of import dependence during the period. This was a time when the Dangote refinery began PMS supply to the local market.

It was noted that imports began to decline steadily, falling to 24.15 million litres per day by January 2025, 19.26 million litres per day in September 2025, and 15.11 million litres per day within the first 10 days of October 2025.

The decline in petrol imports showed that the Dangote refinery is gradually taking a significant share of the market, but this comes with stiff competition from petrol importers, who repeatedly accused Aliko Dangote of stifling competitors with consistent price reductions.

As domestic refining grew consistently through the period, local production, which stood at 6.43 million litres per day in September 2024, increased to 22.66 million litres per day in January 2025 before stabilising around 20 million litres per day in subsequent months. By October 2025, the Dangote refinery was producing an average of 18.93 million litres per day, exceeding imports for that month.

The data also showed notable supply fluctuations across the months as total daily PMS supply peaked at 60.73 million litres in September 2024 before dropping to 44.08 million litres in April 2025 and further to 34.04 million litres by October 2025. The variations reflected shifts in both import availability and refinery operations.

This is an indication that daily consumption has dropped significantly from an average of 60.73 million litres per day in September 2024 to 51.57 million litres in July 2025, 41.86 million in August, 34.86 million in September and 34.04 million per day in the first 10 days of October 2025.

Recall that the Federal Government totally deregulated the petrol sector in September last year, stopping the controversial fuel subsidies which the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited was paying on imported petrol.

A month-by-month analysis revealed that the highest domestic output was recorded in January 2025, with a daily average of 22.66 million litres, while the lowest was in August 2024, when no local production was recorded because Dangote had yet to commence production at that time.

The highest total supply was in September 2024 at 60.73 million litres per day, followed by October and November 2024, when total daily supply averaged 56.01 and 55.75 million litres, respectively. By the end of the review period, cumulative petrol imports had reached 15,009.85 million litres, while domestic production amounted to 6,672.44 million litres, giving a combined total of 21,682.29 million litres supplied over the 445 days between August 2024 and October 1-10, 2025.

The figures underline the ongoing transition in Nigeria’s petrol supply structure, showing a gradual but measurable increase in the contribution of domestic refining. However, the data also confirmed that imports continued to dominate the national supply mix for most of the period.

It could be recalled that while marketers insisted on importation, the Dangote refinery has been exporting petrol to other countries, including the United States. The 650,000 refinery has consistently boasted of its capacity to meet local fuel demands while exporting to foreign countries.

Aliko Dangote’s plan for building the refinery was to end Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel despite being an oil-producing nation. However, marketers have continued to import petrol into Nigeria, competing heavily with the refinery.

Recently, the Dangote refinery challenged marketers to bring their trucks for fuel loading, boasting that it has over 310 million litres of petrol in its ranks. The Vice President of the Dangote Group, Devakumar Edwin, stated that marketers were allowed to bring any trucks for loading at the gantry, as the refinery had enough fuel for the local market and for exports.

“I have more than 310 million litres of PMS as of today inside my tanks, apart from the production which is coming out every day. Bring your tankers. We will load. Any number of tankers you bring, we’ll load. It’s a challenge I’m throwing today. No one can come and tell me I’m not loading. We can load any number of tankers you bring. So, you can see whether I have the capacity to produce or not. We have more than 310 million litres as of now,” he stressed.

The Dangote refinery had in September exported more fuel to foreign nations when Saudi Aramco and others in the Middle East Gulf closed refineries for maintenance.

A senior officer at the Dangote refinery told our correspondent that the $20bn Lekki-based plant exported large volumes of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), aviation fuel, and diesel to other countries in August.

The official, who spoke in confidence as he was not authorised to speak with the press, said, “We export PMS, diesel and aviation fuel.”

Our correspondent gathered that the Dangote refinery had supplied two long-range cargoes of fuel to the Mideast Gulf region between June and July. According to Argus Media, a heavy refinery turnaround season in the Mideast Gulf was expected to exacerbate an already tight gasoline market in the fourth quarter, prompting key regional suppliers to boost imports.

In February, the Dangote refinery said it sold two cargoes of aviation fuel to Saudi Aramco. Aliko Dangote announced that the refinery achieved a significant milestone by successfully exporting the two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer.

Dangote said the refinery was reaching the ambitious goals it set for itself as it ramps up production.

“We are reaching the ambitious goals we set for ourselves, and I’m pleased to announce that we’ve just sold two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco,” he said in February, adding that since its production began in 2024, the refinery has steadily increased its output.

Some months ago, he disclosed that the oil refinery had begun exporting PMS to other countries of the world. According to him, between June and July 2025, the refinery exported up to one million tonnes of petrol.

“Today, Nigeria has actually become a net exporter of refined products. From the beginning of June to date (July 22), we have exported about one million tonnes of PMS within the last 50 days,” he said.

The NMDPRA also testified that the Dangote refinery supplies an average of 20 million litres of petrol into the local market.

“Without a shadow of a doubt, the operation of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery has changed the supply dynamics, with an average daily contribution of up to 20 million litres, undoubtedly with potential for a future ramp-up,” NMDPRA Chief Executive, Farouk Ahmed, said recently in Lagos.

The data underscores Nigeria’s ongoing transition from heavy reliance on imported petrol to a more balanced supply structure driven by domestic refining. While the country still depends significantly on foreign fuel, the steady growth in local production, particularly from the Dangote refinery, signals a gradual shift toward self-sufficiency.

However, the competition between importers and the refinery, coupled with market pricing challenges, suggests that achieving full local dominance will take time. With refining capacity expanding and consumption patterns adjusting, Nigeria appears to be entering a new phase in its downstream petroleum landscape, one defined by increased domestic output, reduced imports, and the potential to finally end decades of fuel dependence.

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Reps to mediate in PENGASSAN, Dangote refinery dispute

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The House of Representatives on Tuesday resolved to intervene in the recent face-off between members of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria and the Dangote Refinery, which had disrupted petroleum product distribution nationwide.

The resolution of the House followed the consideration and adoption of a motion of urgent public importance co-sponsored by Kano and Sokoto lawmakers, Alhassan Doguwa and Abdussamad Dasuki, respectively, at Tuesday’s plenary.

Titled: “Need to protect private investment from adversarial unionism,” the lawmakers drew the attention of their colleagues to the significance of the Dangote Refinery, describing it as the largest private petroleum refinery in Africa.

The face-off between PENGASSAN and the Dangote Refinery led to an industrial action which commenced on September 29, 2025, disrupting the operations at the $20bn refinery.

It also led to a disruption in Nigeria’s crude oil production, with a reported daily loss of approximately 200,000 barrels over three days.

The disruption worsened the petroleum supply situation across the country, resulting in scarcity and long queues at filling stations in several states, resulting in severe hardship for millions of Nigerians.

Speaking on the motion, Doguwa, who represents Doguwa/Tudun Wada Federal Constituency, Kano State, stressed the need to protect the Dangote Refinery given its strategic significance to the nation’s economy.

He said, “The House is aware that the Dangote Refinery is a strategic private investment of immense national importance, with the potential to guarantee energy security, reduce import dependency, generate employment, and conserve foreign exchange.

“We are aware that the Dangote Refinery operates within a Free Trade Zone, and therefore falls under the regulatory framework of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority, particularly Section 18(5) of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Act which clearly states that ‘Employment in the free zone shall be governed by rules and regulations made by the Authority and not subject to the provisions of any enactments relating to employment matters.’

“The House is concerned that actions by labour unions that disregard the legal protections conferred on Free Zones under the NEPZA Act not only constitute a breach of law but also create a hostile investment environment that may deter future local and foreign investors;

“We are worried that if private investments of strategic national importance are continually subjected to unlawful disruptions by adversarial unionism, Nigeria risks not only the failure of key economic assets but also the erosion of investor confidence necessary for national growth and development.”

In his contribution, the member representing Chibok/Damboa/Gwoza Federal Constituency, Ahmad Jaha, urged the House to tread carefully, adding that the call for a probe as prayed by the motion was ill-timed.

Following the adoption of the motion, the House urged its leadership to broker peace between the two parties in the interest of the nation.

It also urged the Federal Ministries of Labour and Employment, Industry, Trade and Investment, as well as Justice, to “Jointly develop and implement a national framework or set of policies to safeguard private investments of strategic national importance from adversarial and unlawful union actions.”

It further charged the Federal Ministry of Justice and NEPZA to ensure full enforcement and compliance with the provisions of Section 18(5) of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Act in all relevant Free Zone operations.

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