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FG recorded N30tn revenue shortfall in 2025 – Edun

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The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, opened up on Tuesday that the Federal Government recorded a significant revenue shortfall in the 2025 fiscal year.

He noted that while the Federal Government projected N40.8tn revenue for this year, it ended up making only N10.7tn.

Edun made the disclosure while appearing before the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper.

He recalled that the Federal Government had projected a revenue target of N40.8tn in 2025 to fund the N54.9tn “budget of restoration,” designed to stabilise the economy, secure peace and lay the foundation for long-term prosperity.

However, the minister said current fiscal performance shows that total revenue for the year is likely to end at about N10.7tn.

According to him, the sharp shortfall is largely attributable to weak oil and gas earnings, particularly Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax from oil and gas companies, alongside persistent underperformance across several revenue subheads.

“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7tn compared to the N40.8tn projection,” Edun told lawmakers.

The minister’s disclosure on Tuesday is in sharp contrast to the declaration by President Bola Tinubu in September that the Federal Government had already met its revenue target

“Today I can stand here before you to brag: Nigeria is not borrowing.

We have met our revenue target for the year and we met it in August,” Tinubu had told members of  The Buhari Organisation who visited him at the Presidential Villa in Abuja.

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However, speaking on Tuesday, the finance minister admitted that revenue shortfall harmpered the implementation of the N54.9tn 2025 budget.

He explained that although the Federal Government also raised about N14.1tn through borrowing, the combined inflows still fell far short of what was required to fully fund the 2025 budget.

Despite the revenue gap, Edun said the government had continued to meet critical obligations through what he described as prudent treasury management.

He noted that salaries, statutory transfers, as well as domestic and foreign debt service obligations, had been paid as and when due through “skillful, imaginative and creative handling” of available resources.

Providing further insight into expenditure performance, the minister said capital releases to ministries, departments and agencies in 2024 stood at N5.2tn out of a budgeted N7.1tn, representing 73 per cent performance.

He added that total capital expenditure, including multilateral and bilateral-funded projects, reached N11.1tn out of N13.7tn, or 84 per cent.

The minister cautioned that expenditure plans heavily tied to oil revenues must remain flexible, warning against committing the government to spending obligations based on projections that have consistently failed to materialise.

“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” he said.

Also speaking at the session, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, said the MTEF and FSP were developed through extensive consultations with key stakeholders, including government agencies, the private sector, civil society organisations and development partners

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Bagudu acknowledged that revenue assumptions remained a subject of intense debate within the Economic Management Team, explaining that while some members favoured conservative projections informed by historical performance, others argued for ambitious targets to compel revenue-generating agencies to improve efficiency and collection.

He disclosed that although the government retained an oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day for policy planning, a more cautious assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day was adopted for revenue calculations in the 2026 budget framework.

Earlier, the Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, James Faleke, called for a more critical and realistic approach to budget preparation, warning against bloated budgets that often face serious implementation challenges.

Nigeria’s revenue performance in 2025 has been undermined by a combination of structural and cyclical factors.

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Uber reports N6.1bn annual driver earnings amid Lagos strike

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Uber Technologies Inc. has highlighted that its platform supports N6.1bn in collective annual earnings for drivers in Nigeria, as app-based transport operators staged a strike in Lagos, the country’s most populous city and commercial hub. The walkout, which began on Monday, continued on Tuesday, and remained ongoing on Wednesday, has affected ride-hailing platforms including Uber, Bolt, and inDrive.

According to union statements, the strike was triggered by rising operational costs, low fares, and challenging working conditions. Drivers logged off their apps, temporarily reducing ride availability across the city and underscoring tensions in Lagos’s fast-growing ride-hailing sector.

The company stressed that drivers are central to the platform’s operations. “Drivers are at the heart of our business, and we remain committed to engaging constructively with them through regular roundtable discussions.”

The N6.1bn figure represents the total additional income generated for drivers using the Uber platform nationwide, according to Uber’s 2023 Economic Impact Report for Nigeria. It does not reflect individual earnings, which vary based on trips completed, hours worked, and operating costs.

“Uber’s 2023 Economic Impact Report for Nigeria revealed that the platform continues to play a meaningful role in supporting earning opportunities. In total, drivers are estimated to earn an additional N6.1bn annually in higher income through their use of the Uber app.”

Uber began operations in Nigeria in 2014, starting in Lagos before expanding to Abuja, Port Harcourt, and Ibadan. The company has become one of the leading ride-hailing platforms in the country alongside Bolt and inDrive.

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This is not the first strike by Lagos drivers, who have previously walked off the job over low fares, high commission charges, and rising operational costs. The recurrence highlights the ongoing friction between platforms and drivers, despite the substantial earnings generated.

Uber said it is committed to dialogue with drivers, signalling a preference for negotiation over confrontation. The outcome of discussions could influence fare structures, commissions, and operational practices across Lagos’s ride-hailing market.

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Nigeria spends N9tn importing petrol

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Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol persisted in 2025, with oil marketers spending N8.96tn on Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) imports between January and December, despite increased investments in domestic refining capacity.

An analysis of the latest foreign trade data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that petrol, code-named “Motor spirit ordinary,” remained one of the most imported commodities throughout the year, reflecting ongoing supply gaps in the downstream sector.

The NBS said petrol import costs were N8.96tn in 2025, but represented a decline of N6.46tn or about 41.9 per cent from the N15.42tn recorded in 2024, but still stood N1.45tn or roughly 19.3 per cent higher than the N7.51tn posted in 2023 when fuel subsidy was eliminated by the current administration.

This latest development comes days after The PUNCH exclusively reported that Domestic refineries imported crude oil worth N5.734tn between January and December 2025, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector and an obsession for imports.

The fuel import expenditure came at a time when expectations were high for a decline in reliance on foreign supply following significant investments in local refining.

This trend persisted despite the commencement of operations, steady ramp-up in production and distribution of petrol by domestic refineries, notably the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, alongside state-owned refineries and several modular facilities.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority published recently revealed that total petrol consumption stood at 18.97 billion litres in 2025, with 11.85 billion litres, representing 62.47 per cent, supplied through imports.

While domestic refineries contributed about 7.54 billion litres, accounting for 37.53 per cent of total consumption.

But in the new NBS document, which focuses on the value of products, the data showed a fluctuating but sustained petrol import pattern, with expenditure rising by N0.62tn, or about 35.2 per cent, from N1.76tn in the first quarter to N2.38tn in the second quarter, before dropping sharply by N1.09tn, or roughly 45.8 per cent, to N1.29tn in the third quarter.

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However, imports rebounded strongly in the fourth quarter, surging by N2.25tn, or about 174.4 per cent, to N3.54tn, the highest quarterly expenditure recorded in the year.

Overall, the fourth-quarter spike accounted for nearly 40 per cent of total annual imports, underscoring persistent supply pressures and seasonal demand fluctuations. The statistics agency didn’t provide a breakdown of the value imported monthly.

Breakdown of the figures showed that petrol was the second most imported product in the first quarter at N1.76tn, and also ranked as the second highest import from African countries, with N89.18bn largely sourced from Togo within the ECOWAS sub-region.

By the second quarter, petrol had risen to become Nigeria’s top imported product at N2.38tn, maintaining its dominance across African, West African, and ECOWAS trade corridors, where imports stood at N208.76bn.

However, the trend shifted in the third quarter, when import value dropped to N1.29tn, making petrol the third most imported product globally during the period. Notably, no imports were recorded from African or ECOWAS countries in that quarter, indicating a shift towards alternative international suppliers.

In the fourth quarter, petrol imports rebounded strongly to N3.54tn, reclaiming its position as the most imported commodity. Within Africa, it ranked as the second-highest import at N84.69bn, with Togo again featuring prominently among regional suppliers.

In the fourth quarter, petrol imports from Brazil were valued at N221.15bn, while the Netherlands emerged as one of Nigeria’s largest suppliers with shipments worth N1.22tn in the same period.

Overall, the product’s share of total trade reflected a fluctuating but rising trend, accounting for 11.42 per cent in the first quarter, increasing to 15.54 per cent in the second quarter, before dropping to 7.98 per cent in the third quarter and rebounding sharply to 20.52 per cent in the fourth quarter.

See also  ‘Price Of 5kg Cooking Gas Increased To ₦8,324’

Further analysis showed that Nigeria sourced petrol from a diverse mix of countries, including the Netherlands, the United States, Belgium, Brazil, and Togo, highlighting the global nature of its fuel supply chain.

Despite the operational take-off of the Dangote Refinery and ongoing rehabilitation of state-owned refineries, import dependence remains deeply entrenched.

Over the past five years, Nigeria’s petrol import bill has steadily risen. In 2020, the country spent N2.01tn on fuel imports, more than doubling to N4.56tn in 2021.

By 2022, the figure further increased to N7.71tn before slightly declining to N7.51tn in 2023. However, in 2024, fuel import expenditure surged to an all-time high of N15.42tn, marking the largest petrol import bill in Nigeria’s history.

The figures highlight a structural imbalance between refining capacity and actual output, noting that while installed capacity has improved, feedstock constraints, logistics challenges, and market dynamics continue to limit performance.

Energy analysts warn that the continued reliance on imports, despite increased refining capacity, raises concerns about energy security, foreign exchange pressure, and the sustainability of the downstream market.

Commenting, the Managing Partner at Energy Consulting Practice, Kelvin Emmanuel, accused the Presidency of maintaining tight control over licensing decisions in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, in what he described as a violation of the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act.

Speaking in a telephone interview on Thursday, Emmanuel said, “The State House has refused to hand off its control in dictating to the authority who gets a licence or not, and has ignored calls consistently to comply with Sections 317, and 7 to 11 of the PIA.”

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He further raised concerns over crude supply challenges facing the Dangote Refinery, noting that the facility was still heavily reliant on imports despite its scale.

“Dangote is currently importing about 10 million barrels out of the 18 million barrels he processes monthly. The one fortunate part of this crisis is that Lagos sits on the Atlantic Basin, so he can easily ship in crude from Houston or Brazil,” he said.

Emmanuel criticised the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude initiative, arguing that structural issues within the oil market were undermining its effectiveness.

“The government keeps touting the naira-for-crude initiative, when in reality it’s either the NNPC is not giving him crude because most of it is locked in forwards that have been pre-sold, or commercial operators are routing their feedstock at extra commissions outside the fiscal oil price,” he stated.

He added that Nigeria must take deliberate steps to safeguard domestic refining by establishing a national buffer stock. “The Nigerian Government needs to develop a strategic petroleum reserve that is codified through an Act of Parliament, to serve domestic refiners,” Emmanuel said.

The sustained reliance on foreign petrol supply underscores the challenges facing Nigeria’s energy transition, as the country grapples with aligning its upstream resources with downstream capacity.

As Africa’s largest oil producer, the paradox of importing a majority of its refined fuel needs continues to define Nigeria’s petroleum sector, a trend that policymakers say must be urgently reversed to achieve true energy independence.

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Starmer pushes strategic UK-Nigeria alliance with N1.4tn fresh deal

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The United Kingdom and Nigeria have sealed new export agreements as both countries committed to taking their economic partnership to another level, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Thursday.

Starmer made the disclosure during a bilateral meeting with President Bola Tinubu at 10 Downing Street on the second day of the Nigerian leader’s historic state visit to Britain.

“Today is the opportunity to take that to another level with the agreements that we’ve been able to reach on exports, and I think that shows we can go even further than we’ve already gone,” the British Prime Minister stated.

Tinubu, in his remarks, revealed that Nigeria is currently undergoing “very strong reform of the economy” and linked the terrorism challenges facing West Africa to climate change conflict.

“We need more trade agreements and economic relationships that we build between nations. Nigeria is currently going through a very strong reform of the economy,” Tinubu said during the meeting at 10 Downing Street.

The President described Nigeria as facing significant challenges, stating, “The largest country in West Africa, and on the continent, is challenged by terrorism coming from the conflict of climate change.”

Tinubu emphasised that both countries face global economic challenges, noting, “Currently, the entire world is challenged. Nigeria is not immune. Britain is not immune.”

He said the discussions focused on the “economic welfare of the people and how we can work together to improve livelihood” amid economic volatility.

The President affirmed that Thursday’s bilateral discussions would address what Britain can do to “accelerate the friendship, partnership and collaboration” between both nations.

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On his part, Prime Minister Starmer described the visit as historic, noting it was the first inward state visit for 37 years by a Nigerian leader.

“The long and shared history between our countries is obvious and much valued, as is the people-to-people contact and engagement that enriches lives here in the United Kingdom,” Starmer said.

He noted that both countries already collaborate on economy, defence, and security matters but expressed determination to deepen the partnership.

“Today is the opportunity to take that to another level with the agreements that we’ve been able to reach on exports,” the Prime Minister stated.

Nigeria became the United Kingdom’s biggest export market in Africa in January 2026, with bilateral trade continuing to expand.

King Charles III had disclosed on Wednesday night at a state banquet that visitors from Nigeria spent £178m in Britain in 2024, while 251,000 people from Britain travelled to Nigeria and spent just as much in return.

The state visit, which began on Wednesday, March 18, saw the signing of several memoranda of understanding and agreements covering trade, investment, defence, and cultural cooperation.

A major outcome already announced is a £746m financing deal involving UK Export Finance, the Nigerian Ports Authority, and the Ministry of Finance for the refurbishment of Lagos Port Complex (Apapa) and Tin Can Island Port.

The bilateral meeting at Downing Street followed Wednesday night’s state banquet at Windsor Castle, where King Charles III acknowledged “painful marks” in the shared history between both nations while praising Nigeria’s transformation and the contributions of the Nigerian diaspora to British society.

See also  FG to borrow N800bn via February bonds

The state visit, the first by a Nigerian president since 1989 when former military leader Ibrahim Babangida was hosted by Queen Elizabeth II, concludes on Thursday with President Tinubu expected to return to Nigeria.

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