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Petrol war: Importers outpace domestic refineries with 62% supply in 2025

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Petrol importation remained the dominant source of fuel consumed in Nigeria in 2025, accounting for 62.47 per cent of the country’s total Premium Motor Spirit consumption.

This trend persisted despite the commencement of operations, steady ramp-up in production and distribution of petrol by domestic refineries, notably the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, alongside state-owned refineries and several modular facilities, as revealed in the latest midstream and downstream sector factsheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

According to the newly released NMDPRA factsheet on the state of the midstream and downstream petroleum sector, as analysed by our correspondent on Sunday, total national petrol consumption by Nigerians stood at approximately 18.97 billion litres in 2025, with oil marketing companies accounting for 11.85 billion litres through imports, highlighting the market’s continued dependence on foreign supply.

This means that nearly two-thirds of petrol consumed by Nigerians in 2025 was sourced from imports, while domestic refineries contributed about 7.54 billion litres, representing 37.53 per cent of total consumption, the regulator stated.

These totals were derived by applying the daily average consumption to the number of days in each month. The data, which are based on volumes trucked into the domestic market, underscore Nigeria’s continued dependence on fuel imports, even as the Dangote refinery, currently the country’s only operational large-scale refinery, ramped up supply during the year.

Meanwhile, the volume of petrol imports is expected to decline significantly in 2026 if the Federal Government proceeds with the planned implementation of a 15 per cent import tariff on Premium Motor Spirit, slated to take effect in the first quarter of 2025, in line with a policy memo approved by President Bola Tinubu.

For decades, Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer, relied almost entirely on imported petrol following the prolonged underperformance of its state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. This dependence deepened after the refineries became largely dormant, forcing the country to meet domestic demand through imports financed with scarce foreign exchange and, for years, supported by a costly petrol subsidy regime.

The structure of the market began to shift in late 2024 with the commencement of operations at the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, widely regarded as a potential turning point for Nigeria’s downstream sector. The refinery, alongside smaller modular refineries and limited output from state-owned facilities, was expected to significantly cut import volumes, improve energy security, and stabilise fuel supply across the country.

However, regulatory data from the regulatory Authority show that while domestic refining and distribution improved steadily in 2025, imports remained dominant. The NMDPRA attributes this to factors including the gradual ramp-up of refining operations, crude supply arrangements, logistics constraints, and demand fluctuations following the full deregulation of petrol pricing.

2025 represents the first full year of large-scale domestic Premium Motor Spirit supply, limiting year-on-year comparisons, particularly as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery only commenced petrol distribution in the final quarter of 2024.

Regulatory data showed that between October and December 2024, total petrol consumption stood at 4.77 billion litres, out of which imports accounted for 3.61 billion litres, while domestic refineries supplied about 1.17 billion litres.

Against this backdrop, the latest midstream and downstream factsheet provides one of the clearest regulatory snapshots yet of Nigeria’s petrol market in a post-subsidy environment, highlighting both the gains made in domestic supply and the structural challenges that continue to sustain the country’s reliance on imported fuel.

A breakdown of the factsheet showed that Dangote refinery accounted for virtually all domestic PMS supply in 2025, supplying an average of between 17 million and 32 million litres per day, depending on the month, and a total of 7.534.9 billion litres for the entire year.

Based on its supply framework with the regulator and the Federal Government, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery was expected to deliver about 600 million litres of petrol monthly, translating to an annual benchmark of 7.2 billion litres.

However, NMDPRA data showed that the refinery supplied 7.54 billion litres in 2025, representing a shortfall of about 336 million litres, or roughly 4.7 per cent below the annual target, despite improved output towards the end of the year.

In December 2025, domestic supply rose sharply to 32 million litres per day, the highest monthly average for the year, while total domestic deliveries reached 992 million litres, signalling gradual stabilisation of operations.

The factsheet showed that total petrol consumption fluctuated significantly throughout the year, rising from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December, reflecting seasonal demand, logistics dynamics, and pricing conditions.

A month-on-month breakdown showed that Nigeria’s petrol consumption showed wide fluctuations throughout 2025, rising from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December, representing an overall increase of about 23.7 per cent over the year.

Total consumption declined sharply by 11.6 per cent, from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.41 billion litres in February, before rebounding by 11.8 per cent in March to 1.58 billion litres. Demand rose further in April to 1.66 billion litres, a 5.0 per cent increase, and peaked in May at 1.69 billion litres, up 1.8 per cent.

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This was followed by a steep 14.6 per cent drop in June to 1.44 billion litres. Consumption recovered modestly in July (1.46 billion litres, up 1.6 per cent) and August (1.50 billion litres, up 2.5 per cent), before falling to its lowest level of the year in September at 1.31 billion litres, a 12.4 per cent decline.

Demand then surged by 33.8 per cent in October to 1.76 billion litres, dipped by 9.7 per cent in November to 1.59 billion litres, and climbed strongly by 24.4 per cent in December to 1.97 billion litres, the highest monthly level recorded in 2025.

Petrol imports by oil marketing companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited tracked these consumption movements and remained the dominant source of supply throughout the year.

Imports rose from 765.7 million litres in January to 770 million litres in February, an increase of 0.6 per cent, before jumping by 15.5 per cent in March to 889.7 million litres. Volumes dipped slightly by 3.2 per cent in April to 861 million litres, but surged sharply in May to 1.20 billion litres, representing a 39 per cent increase and accounting for about 71 per cent of total consumption for the month.

Imports declined by 18.3 per cent in June to 978 million litres, rose again by 14.4 per cent in July to 1.12 billion litres, and fell by 26.9 per cent in August to 818.4 million litres. September imports dropped further by 16.3 per cent to 685.1 million litres, before climbing by 30.8 per cent in October to 895.9 million litres.

November recorded a sharp spike to 1.56 billion litres, a 74.4 per cent increase, making imports equivalent to almost 98 per cent of total consumption that month. Imports eased in December to 1.31 billion litres, down 16.3 per cent, but still represented about two-thirds of monthly demand.

Similarly, domestic refinery supply, largely from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, showed a gradual but uneven improvement over the year. Supply rose from 592.1 million litres in January to 694.4 million litres in February, an increase of 17.3 per cent, and edged up further to 709.9 million litres in March, up 2.2 per cent. Output declined in April by 9.1 per cent to 645 million litres, and fell further in May by 11.1 per cent to 573.5 million litres.

The downward trend continued in June and July, with supply dropping to 543 million litres (down 5.3 per cent) and 511.5 million litres (down 5.8 per cent), respectively. Domestic supply rebounded in August by 20.0 per cent to 613.8 million litres, dipped slightly in September by 11.1 per cent to 545.6 million litres, and eased further in October to 530.1 million litres, down 2.8 per cent.

Output improved again in November to 585 million litres, a 10.4 per cent increase, before surging sharply in December to 992 million litres, representing a 69.6 per cent month-on-month rise and the strongest domestic supply performance of the year.

A further breakdown showed that in January, imports accounted for about 48 per cent of daily petrol consumption, while domestic refineries supplied around 37 per cent. Import dependence widened significantly in May, with marketers meeting about 71 per cent of daily demand, while domestic refineries contributed just 34 per cent. However, by December, domestic supply rose to about 50 per cent of daily consumption, narrowing the gap with imports, which accounted for roughly 66 per cent, reflecting the highest level of domestic participation recorded in 2025.

Imports consistently exceeded domestic supply in most months. In May, for instance, marketers imported 1.20 billion litres, representing about 71 per cent of total consumption for that month, while domestic refineries supplied just 573.5 million litres.

In contrast, December recorded the narrowest gap, with imports of 1.31 billion litres against the domestic supply of 992 million litres, as Dangote ramped up output and daily consumption rose to 63.7 million litres.

A further breakdown of the data showed that in January 2025, Nigeria recorded a daily average petrol consumption of 51.5 million litres, translating to 1.60 billion litres for the month. Of this volume, petrol importing marketers supplied an average of 24.7 million litres per day, amounting to 765.7 million litres. In comparison, domestic refineries delivered an average of 19.1 million litres daily, or 592.1 million litres in total.

In February, daily average consumption moderated to 50.4 million litres, with total monthly demand of 1.41 billion litres. Imports accounted for an average of 27.5 million litres per day, or 770 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 24.8 million litres daily, amounting to 694.4 million litres.

For March, average daily consumption rose slightly to 50.9 million litres, bringing total demand to 1.58 billion litres. Petrol imports averaged 28.7 million litres per day, totalling 889.7 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 22.9 million litres daily, or 709.9 million litres for the month.

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In April, consumption increased further to a daily average of 55.2 million litres, with total demand of 1.66 billion litres. Importers supplied 28.7 million litres per day, amounting to 861 million litres, while domestic refinery output averaged 21.5 million litres daily, totalling 645 million litres.

Data for May showed average daily consumption of 54.4 million litres, translating to 1.69 billion litres for the month. Imports rose sharply to an average of 38.6 million litres per day, or 1.20 billion litres, while domestic refinery supply declined to 18.5 million litres daily, amounting to 573.5 million litres.

In June, daily average consumption fell to 48.0 million litres, with total demand of 1.44 billion litres. Petrol imports averaged 32.6 million litres per day, totalling 978 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 18.1 million litres daily, or 543 million litres.

For July, average daily consumption declined slightly to 47.2 million litres, bringing monthly demand to 1.46 billion litres. Importers supplied 36.1 million litres per day, amounting to 1.12 billion litres, while domestic refineries delivered 16.5 million litres daily, totalling 511.5 million litres.

In August, daily consumption improved to 48.4 million litres, with a total demand of 1.50 billion litres. Imports averaged 26.4 million litres per day, or 818.4 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 19.8 million litres daily, amounting to 613.8 million litres.

September recorded the lowest consumption levels of the year, with daily average demand at 43.8 million litres and total consumption of 1.31 billion litres. Import volumes averaged 22.1 million litres per day, totalling 685.1 million litres, while domestic refinery supply stood at 17.6 million litres daily, or 545.6 million litres.

In October, consumption rebounded sharply to a daily average of 56.7 million litres, translating to 1.76 billion litres for the month. Imports averaged 28.9 million litres per day, amounting to 895.9 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 17.1 million litres daily, totalling 545.6 million litres.

For November, average daily consumption eased to 52.9 million litres, with total demand of 1.59 billion litres. Importing marketers supplied an average of 52.1 million litres per day, totalling 1.56 billion litres, while domestic refinery output averaged 19.5 million litres daily, amounting to 585 million litres.

In December, petrol consumption surged to its highest level of the year, averaging 63.7 million litres per day and reaching 1.97 billion litres in total. Imports accounted for an average of 42.2 million litres per day, or 1.31 billion litres, while domestic refineries recorded their strongest performance of the year, supplying an average of 32.0 million litres daily, totalling 992 million litres.

Since the Dangote Petroleum Refinery began phased commercial operations in late 2024, its officials and some industry stakeholders have repeatedly asserted that the facility has the capacity to satisfy Nigeria’s petrol needs and reduce, if not eliminate, the need for imports.

Built with an ambitious 650,000‑barrel‑per‑day capacity, the plant has been positioned by its backers as a potential game‑changer for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector

In a statement outlining the refinery’s production profile, Anthony Chiejina, Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, said the plant was already producing above current national demand. He stated:

“Our refinery is currently loading over 45 million litres of PMS and 25 million litres of diesel daily, which exceeds Nigeria’s demand.”

Chiejina added that the refinery’s output was supporting nationwide supply stability and reducing dependency on imported products, with improved local production helping to moderate foreign exchange outflows and strengthen the naira.

Recently, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, revealed that marketers had been sourcing all their petrol supplies from Dangote and that “nobody is importing now,” even during high‑demand periods such as the Christmas season. He said:

“Well, since Dangote has reduced his price, and we have not complained of a shortage of products. There is no importation. So all the supplies we are getting now are from Dangote.”

Also, in earlier remarks reported in 2025, the Dangote group chairman, Aliko Dangote, asserted that the refinery had sufficient refined products in storage to meet domestic needs, saying:

“Right now, we have more than half a billion litres in storage. The refinery is producing enough refined products, gasoline, diesel, and kerosene to meet all of Nigeria’s needs.”

However, these claims remain contested. While some marketers and refinery officials describe importation as unnecessary under current supply arrangements, others note that domestic refining capacity has not yet consistently matched national consumption, and that imports continue to play a role in bridging supply gaps.

Commenting in an earlier report, renowned energy economist Professor Wumi Iledare, noted that Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol has declined but has not been eliminated. He also warned against claims that fuel importation has ended following increased domestic supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

In a personal note titled “Dangote Refinery, Petrol Imports, and Market Reality,” Iledare said recent assertions that Nigeria no longer imports petrol reflect “understandable optimism” but overstate the economic reality of the downstream oil market.

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“Recent claims that petrol importation into Nigeria has ended because Dangote Refinery now meets domestic demand reflect understandable optimism, but they overstate economic reality.

Dangote Refinery has significantly improved domestic supply conditions and reduced Nigeria’s marginal reliance on imported petrol. However, neither Dangote Refinery nor petroleum marketers determine national supply outcomes,” he said.

Iledare, who also serves as Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Abuja, acknowledged that the Dangote Refinery has significantly improved domestic supply conditions and reduced Nigeria’s marginal dependence on imported petrol.

However, he stressed that neither the refinery nor the petroleum marketers determines national supply outcomes. According to him, Nigeria’s downstream petrol market operates within an oligopolistic, import-parity–anchored framework, where prices and supply stability are shaped by the option to import, rather than the physical presence of imported cargoes.

“Nigeria’s downstream petrol market operates within an oligopolistic, import-parity–anchored framework, where prices and supply stability are disciplined by the option to import, not merely the act of importing.

Even when no petrol cargoes are landing, the credible threat of imports remains the market anchor. Importation also continues to serve as a risk-management tool for stock security, demand surges, logistics disruptions, and refinery operational risks,” Iledare said, adding that importation continues to function as a risk-management tool for stock security, demand surges, logistics disruptions, and refinery operational risks.

The energy economist further noted that the Petroleum Industry Act entrenches liberalisation and competition in the downstream sector, leaving no room for discretionary declarations that petrol imports have ended.

“The PIA does not permit discretionary declarations that imports have ended. Sustainable price stability and energy security arise from market discipline, infrastructure efficiency, foreign exchange liquidity, and regulatory credibility, not announcements,” he said.

Iledare argued that the appropriate policy narrative should focus on reduced marginal import dependence, rather than import elimination, warning that imprecise language could undermine policy credibility.

“The correct policy framing, therefore, is reduced marginal import dependence, not import elimination. Precision in language matters because credibility in energy policy is built on economic fundamentals, not celebratory headlines,” he added.

In his expert opinion, the Chief Executive Officer of petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said the new data indicates that Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has grown significantly over the past three years, rising from less than five per cent in 2022 to about 40 per cent in 2025.

Olatide, who disclosed this in a telephone conversation on Sunday, described the development as a major milestone in the country’s long-standing quest to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.

“In 2022, local refining was less than five per cent. But three years later, it has increased to around 40 per cent according to NMDPRA. I think that is good, significant, and a big milestone,” Olatide said.

He explained that while the progress was commendable, Nigeria must push further to achieve meaningful macroeconomic stability. According to him, domestic refining must account for at least 70 per cent of national fuel consumption, with imports limited to 30 per cent.

“Local refining needs to be 70 per cent while import takes 30 per cent. That is the point where this would have direct influence on our economy, create more jobs, stabilise our naira, and deliver other benefits,” he stated.

Olatide noted that 2025 marked a turning point for the sector, largely driven by improved refinery performance and policy shifts aimed at boosting local supply.

He expressed optimism that subsequent industry reports would reflect further improvements. “By and large, I think in the year 2025, we have had a massive improvement and surge in local refining. Hopefully, subsequent reports will go up from the local refining angle, because that is what we need for economic stability,” he added.

He also identified crude oil availability as a critical constraint, particularly for the Dangote Refinery, which plays a dominant role in Nigeria’s refining landscape. Olatide said increasing crude allocation to the refinery could significantly reduce fuel imports.

“I hope in the new year, Dangote would have further access to crude, up from 30 to 40 per cent. More access to crude will really help, and then importation will reduce. The reason importation is still competing is largely because of pricing,” he explained.

Despite the positive outlook, Olatide raised concerns over conflicting production figures being reported by industry stakeholders. He pointed to recent claims by the new Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Refinery, David Bird, who said the refinery was loading about 1,000 trucks daily, equivalent to roughly 50 million litres of petroleum products.

“If you put those figures together, it suggests Dangote alone is doing about 60 to 70 per cent of our daily consumption,” Olatide said.

However, he noted that official figures from the NMDPRA paint a different picture. “NMDPRA is saying local refineries, including Dangote, are doing between 37 and 40 per cent. So clearly, there are conflicts in the reporting.”

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Businesses expect CBN to hold rates as MPC meets today

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Organised Private Sector leaders and economists have projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee will most likely retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent when it meets on Monday and Tuesday, citing heightened geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on inflation.

The stakeholders noted that Nigerian businesses would welcome a rate cut to ease borrowing costs and support investment, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which has struggled under high interest rates.

Their position comes despite a recent CBN Inflation Expectations Survey showing that 61.1 per cent of Nigerians want interest rates reduced ahead of the MPC meeting.

In telephone interviews with The PUNCH, economists and business leaders, including the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said prevailing global uncertainties, particularly the renewed conflict involving the United States and Iran, made it too early for the apex bank to begin further monetary easing.

“What I expect is a hold because it is possibly too soon to relax the MPR because of the current geopolitical issues. We have seen a very dramatic escalation, and this has implications for major macroeconomic indicators, particularly the general price level. Energy prices feed strongly into inflationary pressures, and crude oil prices have risen above $84. The inflation outlook is looking very disturbing,” Yusuf said.

He added, “It is unlikely there will be a rate cut. It is also not likely that there will be a further increase because the last inflation figure showed only a marginal deceleration. Although I don’t mind a rate cut because interest rates are too high, given the prevailing global conditions, especially the Middle East conflict, people hoping for a rate cut should exercise more patience.”

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The President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said businesses would benefit significantly from lower borrowing costs, noting that high interest rates remained a major component of the cost of doing business.

“Everyone wants a reduced interest rate. Interest rate is a major part of the cost of doing business because everybody needs funds for their business. If the interest rate is high, the cost of business will be very high. The lower the interest rate, the better. It will allow businesses to plan and borrow money instead of relying on short-term loans that ultimately increase costs for consumers,” Kupoluyi said.

He, however, urged caution ahead of the MPC decision, saying, “Let’s see what they come up with. We have to look at it both ways. But definitely, for interest rates to come down, it is for the benefit of industry, businesses, and ultimately the customer.”

A Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, also predicted that the committee would likely maintain the current rate because of the uncertainty created by the US-Iran conflict.

“Many people would like a reduced interest rate because the MPR is the anchor rate for bank lending. But my worries are the US-Iran war. We don’t know when it is going to end. For that reason, I suspect they might keep the rate the same for a while,” Ekpo said.

He warned that the conflict could worsen inflationary pressures. “If I were with the MPC, I would hold the rate the way it is for now and wait for the next meeting. With the Iran-US war, inflation may go up. When inflation goes up, the MPC would be inclined to increase rates to contain inflation. The government should instead focus on the manufacturing sector so that we can create jobs,” he added.

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The Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, said while businesses and households desired lower interest rates, the MPC would likely base its decision on data unavailable to the public.

“Every reasonable person wants to see lower interest rates. We have seen stable exchange rates, and inflation has hovered around 15 per cent for six months. But the committee will determine whether this is the right time to ease policy. I don’t have access to the information they have, so I will wait for them to explain whatever decision they take,” Teriba said.

He noted that the conflict in the Middle East had not significantly altered Nigeria’s inflation trend so far but cautioned against pre-empting the committee’s decision. “I’d like to see the monetary policy rate and the CRR come down, but I accept my limitation that I don’t have access to the information available to the MPC. I will wait to be informed by them,” Teriba said.

Businesses have repeatedly argued that high borrowing costs have constrained investment, especially in the manufacturing sector, where operators say access to affordable long-term credit remains critical for expansion, job creation and increased production.

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States pocket N2.37tn VAT under new tax regime

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State governments received N2.37tn from Value Added Tax revenue generated in the first half of 2026, representing an increase of N451.25bn compared with the corresponding period of 2025, an analysis by The PUNCH has shown.

The figure indicates that states’ VAT allocation rose by 23.48 per cent from N1.92tn in the first six months of 2025, according to Federation Account Allocation Committee reports and data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation collated by The PUNCH on Sunday.

The analysis covered VAT generated from January to June 2026, although the proceeds were distributed at FAAC meetings held between February and July. Under the FAAC arrangement, revenue earned in a particular month is shared among the three tiers of government in the following month. This means that January revenue was distributed in February, while June revenue was shared in July.

A total of N4.31tn in distributable VAT revenue was shared among the Federal Government, states and local government councils during the first half of 2026. This was N471.07bn, or 12.26 per cent, higher than the N3.84tn distributed in the corresponding period of 2025.

The H1 2026 distributable VAT pool accounted for 33.09 per cent of the N13.04tn total distributable federation revenue shared during the six-month period.

In comparison, VAT represented about 37.99 per cent of the N10.12tn shared in the first half of 2025. This means that although VAT revenue increased in absolute terms in 2026, its share of total FAAC distributions declined because statutory and other federation revenues grew at a faster pace.

The N13.04tn shared from revenue generated between January and June 2026 was N2.92tn, or 28.86 per cent, above the N10.12tn distributed from revenue generated in the corresponding period of 2025.

The rise in states’ VAT receipts was driven by higher distributable VAT collections in four of the six months and the implementation of a new vertical sharing formula that increased the collective share allocated to states.

Before the commencement of the new tax regime on January 1, 2026, distributable VAT was shared 15 per cent to the Federal Government, 50 per cent to states, and 35 per cent to local government councils.

Under the new tax laws, the Federal Government’s share was reduced to 10 per cent, while the states’ portion increased to 55 per cent. The local governments’ allocation remained unchanged at 35 per cent.

The tax reforms took effect as scheduled from January 1, 2026, following the signing of the new tax laws in June 2025. The adjustment transferred five percentage points of the distributable VAT pool from the Federal Government to the states.

Based on the N4.31tn VAT distributed in H1 2026, the Federal Government gave up about N215.72bn to the states because of the change in the formula.

Had the previous 15 per cent formula remained in place, the Federal Government would have received about N647.15bn from the H1 VAT pool. Under the current 10 per cent allocation, its expected share was about N431.43bn.

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States would have collectively received N2.16tn under the old 50 per cent formula. However, the current 55 per cent allocation raised their share to about N2.37tn, giving them an additional N215.72bn.

The local governments’ 35 per cent share was unaffected by the adjustment. They received about N1.51tn from the distributable VAT pool during the six months.

In January 2026, whose revenue was distributed in February, states received N551.77bn from VAT. This was the highest monthly VAT allocation to states in the first half of the year. The amount was N192.38bn, or 53.53 per cent, higher than the N359.39bn allocated to states from January 2025 VAT revenue.

The distributable VAT pool for January 2026 stood at about N1tn, against N718.78bn in January 2025, representing an increase of N284.44bn, or 39.57 per cent.

The January VAT surge was followed by a decline in February. States received N340.52bn from February 2026 VAT revenue, which was shared in March. This represented a month-on-month fall of N211.26bn, or 38.29 per cent, from the January allocation.

Despite the monthly reduction, the February figure was N35.80bn, or 11.75 per cent, higher than the N304.72bn received by states from VAT generated in February 2025.

FAAC distributed N619.12bn in VAT revenue for February 2026, compared with N609.43bn in the corresponding month of 2025. The distributable pool therefore increased by N9.69bn, or 1.59 per cent, year on year.

States’ VAT allocation declined further to N283.47bn from March 2026 revenue, which was shared at the April FAAC meeting.

The March amount was N57.05bn, or 16.75 per cent, below the February allocation. It was also N13.41bn, or 4.52 per cent, lower than the N296.88bn received from March 2025 VAT revenue.

The total distributable VAT revenue for March 2026 fell to N515.39bn, down by N78.36bn, or 13.20 per cent, from N593.75bn in March 2025. The trend changed in April, when states received N410.90bn from VAT revenue shared in May. This represented a month-on-month increase of N127.43bn, or 44.96 per cent, from the March figure.

Compared with the N299.04bn allocated from April 2025 VAT revenue, the April 2026 figure rose by N111.86bn, or 37.41 per cent. The distributable VAT pool increased to N747.09bn in April 2026, from N598.08bn in the corresponding month of 2025. This amounted to a year-on-year increase of N149.01bn, or 24.92 per cent.

The OAGF said gross VAT revenue increased to N806.62bn in April from N664.43bn in March, reflecting increased collections before deductions for collection costs and other adjustments. States received N378.83bn from May 2026 VAT revenue distributed in June. This was N32.07bn, or 7.80 per cent, lower than the April allocation.

On a year-on-year basis, however, the amount was N32.98bn, or 9.53 per cent, higher than the N345.86bn received from VAT generated in May 2025. The May 2026 distributable VAT pool stood at N688.79bn, marginally below the N691.71bn recorded in May 2025. The N2.93bn difference represented a decline of 0.42 per cent.

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In June, states’ VAT receipts recovered to N407.40bn. The revenue, shared in July, was N28.57bn, or 7.54 per cent, higher than the May allocation. It also exceeded the N315.75bn received from VAT generated in June 2025 by N91.64bn, representing an increase of 29.02 per cent.

The distributable VAT pool for June 2026 rose to N740.72bn, up by N109.22bn, or 17.29 per cent, from N631.51bn in June 2025. The monthly pattern showed that states received more VAT revenue year on year in January, February, April, May, and June. March was the only month in which their VAT allocation fell below the corresponding 2025 level.

Beyond VAT, the three tiers also benefited from increased overall FAAC distributions during the first half of the year. The Federal Government received N4.57tn from revenue generated between January and June 2026. This was N1.17tn, or 34.47 per cent, above the N3.40tn allocated to it in the corresponding period of 2025.

The Federal Government’s monthly allocations were N577.91bn from January revenue, N675.09bn in February, N789.16bn in March, N787.35bn in April, N818.68bn in May and N923.44bn in June.

Its allocation rose during most of the period despite the reduction in its VAT share because statutory federation revenue and other components of the distributable pool increased.

State governments received a total of N4.47tn in general FAAC allocations during H1 2026, excluding the separate 13 per cent derivation payments to oil-producing states. This represented an increase of N1.05tn, or 30.58 per cent, over the N3.43tn received by the states during the first half of 2025.

Their monthly general allocations stood at N794.01bn from January revenue, N651.53bn in February, N657.60bn in March, N772.36bn in April, N759.14bn in May, and N838.21bn in June.

Local government councils received N3.13tn during the six-month period, up from N2.50tn in H1 2025. This represented an increase of N625.42bn, or 24.98 per cent.

Their monthly allocations were N537.88bn from January revenue, N456.47bn in February, N468.83bn in March, N540.15bn in April, N534.28bn in May, and N591.39bn in June.

Oil-producing states also received N864.89bn as 13 per cent mineral revenue derivation during H1 2026. The amount was N73.57bn, or 9.30 per cent, higher than the N791.33bn paid as derivation revenue in the corresponding period of 2025.

The monthly derivation payments rose from N90.19bn in January to N110.95bn in February and N120.76bn in March. They increased to N157.25bn in April, N188.13bn in May, and N197.61bn in June. The figures show that the new VAT formula delivered an immediate gain to states while reducing the Federal Government’s claim on consumption tax revenue.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Nigeria Economic Summit Group warned that the Federal Government could face revenue shortfalls if it does not increase the value-added tax rate as part of the ongoing tax reform process.

The Chief Executive Officer of NESG, Dr Tayo Aduloju, made this statement during an interactive media session in Abuja. He emphasised that while reforms to the VAT system are essential, maintaining the current VAT rate without an increase could result in a significant loss of revenue for the government.

See also  Dangote dumps naira, begins petrol sales in dollars

According to him, simply reducing the number of taxes without adjusting the VAT rate could weaken the government’s revenue base.

Also, in its 2025 Consultation Report on Nigeria, the International Monetary Fund noted that although the recent tax reforms approved by the National Assembly and President Bola Tinubu represent a major step forward in modernising the VAT and Company Income Tax regimes, the choice to maintain the current VAT rate would lead to an immediate revenue shortfall.

It stated that the Federal Government may lose as much as 0.5 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product in revenue following its decision not to raise the VAT rate.

According to the Fund, unless alternative financing options are found, subnational governments may be forced to either scale back spending or ramp up their own revenue efforts. The IMF, however, acknowledged the government’s justification for delaying a VAT hike, particularly at a time of worsening poverty and food insecurity.

Speaking earlier at the launch of the BudgIT State of States 2025 Report in Abuja, where he delivered the keynote address, the current Minister of Finance and the Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, projected that states could earn more than N4tn annually from 2026 when new Value Added Tax reforms take effect.

He said, “With VAT reforms kicking in from 2026, states’ share will rise to 55 per cent. That could amount to over N4tn in 2026. The question is: will this money be spent, or will it be invested?”

Economic analysts earlier called on state governments to intensify efforts to unlock internal revenue as their allocations under the revised sharing formula increase.

A former Chairman of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Prof Segun Ajibola, called for transparency in the use of the increased allocations, adding, “If a state government wants to be accountable, each state government should set up a desk to account for the increase in the VAT allocation and make the report known to the public. There is so much to spend on agriculture and other public utilities.”

Also, the Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, earlier said VAT historically replaced state sales tax and originally belonged to states. “The tax belonged to the states. It is for ease of collection that the federal government decides to collect on behalf of the states,” Teriba noted.

He further cautioned states against overdependence on statutory allocations, advising, “Not to make a mountain out of a molehill (as) these are smaller amounts for the states.”

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Marketers halt Dangote fuel loading, FG steps in on Dollar sale row

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Marketers of petroleum products have stated that the loading of fuel has been put on hold at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery following the facility’s decision to sell fuel in dollars.

Many marketers told The PUNCH on Sunday that the facility was not even loading its trucks, sparking fear of possible fuel tightness across the country. But the refinery denied the claim, arguing that fuel loading was ongoing within the Lekki-based plant.

Petroleum marketers said they suspended large-scale fuel loading in the last few days as they await clarity on the new pricing template being adopted by the refinery. They also await the cost of newly imported petroleum products.

The development heightened uncertainty in the downstream petroleum sector, with marketers wary of buying large volumes of petrol at the prevailing prices only to see the cost of the product fall shortly after.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, in a telephone interview on Sunday, said marketers were being forced to adopt a cautious approach because of the uncertainty surrounding the next price of petrol.

“The issue is simple; marketers are not buying because they are trying to look at the market dynamics. Whatever we are using today is existing products in tank farms, which we are buying around N1,250 and N1,300,” Ukadike said.

He said the uncertainty had been worsened by the expected arrival of new crude supplies and imported petrol, whose pricing templates remained unclear.

“The problem we are now facing is that this new crude oil that they are bringing- what will be the template? Also, those who have brought in petroleum products and are given licences are also estimated to place their price at N1,350, which marketers are also wary of,” he stated.

Ukadike said marketers were therefore reluctant to load large volumes because they could not predict whether the price of petrol would rise or fall after they had purchased the product.

“So everyone is just sceptical about loading products because when you load, you don’t know the next price, if it is going to reduce or go higher. You are still expected by consumers to sell at the prevailing price,” he said.

According to him, the uncertainty has not completely halted the distribution of petrol, but has significantly reduced the volume being loaded by marketers.

He urged the Federal Government to intervene and resolve the dispute over the pricing template, warning that continued uncertainty could further disrupt the downstream market. “The Federal Government has to look inward and resolve this issue once and for all. This template issue should be resolved immediately,” Ukadike said.

In a report by NAN, marketers in the South-West confirmed that the uncertainty over petrol prices has forced many to halt fresh purchases, leading to the temporary closure of some filling stations.

The Zonal Chairman of IPMAN, Western Zone, Oyewole Akanni, disclosed this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria on Sunday in Ibadan. Akanni said the situation was triggered by the suspension of loading of Premium Motor Spirit at the Dangote refinery about four days ago.

He said the development had forced marketers to source products from private depots at significantly higher prices. According to him, the cheapest ex-depot price at private depots in Lagos currently ranges between N1,200 and N1,220 per litre, excluding transportation costs.

He added that marketers who bought products on Friday paid between N1,210 and N1,220 per litre. “The non-availability of fuel at some filling stations and the closure of others are due to fluctuations in the price of lifting fuel from depots.

“Since the Dangote refinery stopped selling PMS about four days ago, private depot owners have increased their prices. Many filling stations that have exhausted their stock are waiting to see whether prices will come down when the Dangote refinery resumes sales or increase further. Only a few marketers are buying products for now because of the uncertainty,” he said.

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Akanni, however, maintained that there was no fuel scarcity, urging motorists and other consumers not to engage in panic buying. “There is no fuel scarcity. Members of the public should not panic. Although there is a possibility of an increase in the pump price if the current situation persists,” he said.

The zonal chairman said the Dangote refinery neither gave prior notice nor explained the reason for the suspension of PMS sales to marketers. Akanni said four truckloads of petrol meant for his filling stations had remained at the refinery since the suspension of loading.

“I was supposed to have received four truckloads of PMS four days ago, but that has not happened because the trucks are at the Dangote refinery, which has not been selling. The company is not even loading its own trucks. They are all parked there,” he said.

The IPMAN chief said the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited was also affected because it sourced products from the Dangote Refinery. According to him, private depots are now selling PMS for as much as N1,250 per litre, while marketers can obtain products from NIPCO and Aiteo at about N1,200 per litre.

“The major issue now is the fluctuation in depot prices, which has created uncertainty in the market,” Akanni said.

Official denies claim

However, a spokesman for the Dangote Group dismissed the report as “fake news”, accusing some marketers of spreading false information. The spokesman told one of our correspondents that the refinery had not stopped loading petroleum products.

“The refinery is loading. Anybody can go there to check. That’s fake news to say we are not loading,” the official, who pleaded not to have his name in print due to the sensitive nature of the matter, stated.

He noted that marketers importing petrol were finding it difficult to compete because prices in Lomé, Togo, had risen, making it increasingly difficult to match Dangote’s prices.

FG vs Dangote

The PUNCH reports that the Federal Government and the Dangote Petroleum Refinery have yet to reach an agreement on the issues that prompted the refinery to adopt a dollar-based pricing template, a development that could prolong uncertainty in the downstream petroleum sector and lead to a further increase in the price of Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol.

A senior government official involved in the ongoing discussions revealed on Sunday. The PUNCH gathered that the ongoing standoff is caused by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery grievance on the continued issuance of import licences to marketers and a row on the modalities of crude oil supply.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations, said the dispute had gone beyond the price of petrol, stressing that it was also linked to the volume of crude supplied to the refinery and the proportion of crude sold to it in naira.

According to the official, the refinery has been unhappy with the Federal Government over the continued issuance of import licences to some oil marketers despite its ability to refine large volumes of petrol for the domestic market.

The official said Dangote was also dissatisfied with the volume of crude supplied to the refinery by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, as well as the relatively small proportion of the crude purchased in naira.

“So the issue is that Dangote is unhappy about two things; one is that the government gave import permits. They issued import permits to some companies while his refinery is capable. So he was already angry on that level.

“Then number two is that the refinery is saying that it is not getting enough crude oil even from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. The percentage of naira for crude that they are giving to the facility is not a lot.

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“Number one is that the facility is still not getting enough, according to him. And number two is that the portion they are selling to him in naira is still a little. So he still has to do most purchases in dollars. So the facility is saying that if the government cannot increase the crude they are giving to him in naira, the new dollar pricing template is what he will do. So those are the two issues.”

This movement has raised fresh concerns over the stability of petrol prices, with the refinery’s decision to price its products in dollars potentially exposing domestic fuel prices to movements in the foreign exchange market.

Already, this uncertainty over petrol prices has forced many marketers to halt fresh purchases, leading to the temporary closure of some filling stations, according to the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria.

The official said the Federal Government had continued to engage the refinery’s management in a bid to prevent the dispute from escalating. He, however, warned that the government could not allow any single player to hold the country to ransom by demanding restrictions on imports while the parties continued to disagree over crude supply and pricing.

“The government has been discussing this matter. He said he was going to do this (dollar sale of fuel). He said this two weeks ago. And the government was asking for patience. Let us keep engaging now. So now that the new dollar pricing template has been done, the government will still keep engaging,” the official said.

The official also argued that the Dangote refinery’s location within a free trade zone gave it considerable flexibility in determining how it conducted its commercial operations, including the currency in which it sold its products.

“Unfortunately, the facility is in a free trade zone, so the refinery is actually allowed to sell in any currency it wants to sell. The refinery is in a free trade zone. And there are so many taxes not paid,” he said.

“Yes, the refinery still pays, but there are a lot of taxes the refinery is excluded from, because it is in a free trade zone. Those are the benefits you get when you are in a free trade zone.”

FCCPC rejects dollar

However, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission has said the naira remains Nigeria’s only lawful currency for domestic commercial transactions, amid reports that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is considering pricing petroleum products in US dollars.

The Director of Corporate Affairs, FCCPC, Ondaje Ijagwu, stated this in a response to enquiries on Sunday. On the reported proposal to price petroleum products in dollars, Ijagwu said, “The commission’s position is clear. The Nigerian naira is the legal tender in Nigeria and remains the lawful currency for domestic commercial transactions.”

On what would be the government’s next step if an agreement is not reached, the top official said, “If there is no agreement and he does not want to listen, the next step will be to allow more imports to come in. It is not possible to hold anybody to ransom

“Cement remains a good case study. The government banned cement importation. Has the cement price gone down? No. This is clear. So, why will he bring it down? He already controls the market. He’s not going to bring it down. So, that’s it.”

The official said Nigeria had imported petrol for decades and could continue to do so if necessary to guarantee adequate supply and prevent a monopoly in the downstream market. “This country has been importing petrol for over 35 years. The world did not stop,” he said.

The warning comes amid a legal challenge by three major oil marketers, Matrix Energy Group, AA Rano Nigeria and AYM Shafa Holdings, over the continued issuance and renewal of licences for the importation of petroleum products.

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According to a report by African Intelligence, the companies are seeking an order of the Federal High Court in Abuja directing the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to continue granting, issuing, extending, renewing or re-issuing licences, permits and authorisations for midstream and downstream operations relating to petroleum product imports.

The marketers argued that they had invested billions of dollars in storage, logistics, and distribution infrastructure and had played a major role in supplying petroleum products to Nigerians for decades.

Their legal action has further complicated the Federal Government’s attempt to balance the protection of domestic refining.

The government official said the legal action was significant because the government could not simply prevent marketers from importing products if domestic supply was insufficient or if the courts ordered regulators to continue issuing the relevant licences.

“Already, some people have gone to court to try to stop the government from banning the importation of petrol. I hope you are aware. So, in case the government wants to bend to Dangote’s will, some marketers have gone to court to get a court order banning the government from stopping imports,” he said.

The official added that the government could not simply sell all crude to domestic refiners in naira without considering the foreign exchange implications.

“So this is the issue. What’s our main source of foreign exchange? It’s still crude. And where is it coming from? Royalty and crude sales. So NNPC is the one that is bringing in these things. So if they then sell everything in naira, where is the dollar going to come from to do other things?” he asked.

The official said the refinery had previously been receiving a significant portion of its crude supply in naira, although the government had to balance the arrangement against its own foreign exchange requirements.

“The last time it was checked, the refinery was getting at least 35 per cent to 40 per cent of its crude in naira of what was being sold to him. Because where will the country then get the dollar from if everything is sold in dollars?” he said.

The official said the Federal Government’s attempt to prevent the refinery from adopting a dollar-based pricing model had therefore not fully resolved the underlying dispute.

“At the end of the day, what the government was trying to avoid is still the same thing that has happened. He had been threatening before it was done, but engagement continues,” he said.

Speaking further, the FCCPC also expressed concern that the recent decline in international crude oil prices had not been reflected proportionately in the prices of petrol sold to consumers.

According to the FCCPC director, “The FCCPC remains concerned that recent declines in international crude oil prices have not been reflected proportionately in retail petrol prices. As the commission stated in its 28 June public statement, pump prices increased rapidly when crude oil prices rose, yet the subsequent decline in international crude oil prices has not translated into corresponding reductions for consumers.”

Ijagwu said the commission’s concerns had prompted the Federal Government to convene a stakeholders’ meeting involving regulators, refiners, marketers and other participants in the petroleum industry.

Ijagwu added, “The commission stands by this position and expects that, within a reasonable period, the benefits of lower international crude oil prices will be reflected in corresponding reductions in pump prices where market conditions justify such adjustments.

“The FCCPC will continue to monitor developments closely and will not hesitate to take appropriate enforcement action where there is credible evidence of anti-competitive conduct, consumer exploitation or any other contravention of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act.”

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