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Nigeria loses N1.76tn after missing OPEC quota

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Nigeria’s oil sector lost an estimated N1.76tn in potential crude oil revenue due to its failure to meet the production quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from January 2025 to January 2026.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission revealed that the country’s crude oil production fell below the OPEC-set target of 1.5 million barrels per day in nine months in 2025 and repeated the same in the first month of 2026, even as global crude prices remained moderately strong.

According to the figures, Nigeria produced 1.54 mbpd in January 2025, exceeding its quota by about 40,000 barrels per day. Production also slightly exceeded the quota in June and July, with daily outputs of 1.51 mbpd, translating to surpluses of approximately 10,000–30,000 barrels per day.

However, production in February (1.47 mbpd), March (1.40 mbpd), April (1.49 mbpd), May (1.45 mbpd), August (1.43 mbpd), September (1.39 mbpd), October (1.40 mbpd), November (1.43 mbpd), and December (1.42 mbpd) fell below the benchmark.

The monthly shortfalls against the OPEC quota ranged from 10,000 barrels per day in April to 110,000 barrels per day in September, with the largest deficit recorded in September.

In February, average production stood at 1.47 mbpd. Over 28 days, this amounted to 41.16 million barrels, compared to the 42 million barrels expected under the quota, leaving a shortfall of 840,000 barrels. Output dropped further to 1.4 mbpd in March. Total production for the month was 43.4 million barrels instead of 46.5 million barrels, resulting in a deficit of 3.1 million barrels.

According to the data, crude production averaged 1.43 million barrels per day in April. Across 30 days, this translated to 42.9 million barrels, leaving a gap of 2.1 million barrels from the 45 million-barrel target for the month.

The fifth month recorded approximately 1.45 million barrels per day. Over the 31 days of May, Nigeria produced 44.95 million barrels against a quota requirement of 46.5 million barrels, leaving a deficit of 1.55 million barrels.

In August, production slipped to about 1.48 million barrels per day, yielding 45.88 million barrels compared to the expected 46.5 million barrels, creating a shortfall of 620,000 barrels. In September, production fell to 1.39 mbpd — the lowest in the year. Over 30 days, output reached 41.7 million barrels instead of 45 million barrels, leaving a shortfall of 3.3 million barrels.

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Similarly, in October, average production of 1.44 million barrels per day resulted in 44.64 million barrels compared to 46.5 million barrels expected. The shortfall was 1.86 million barrels.

November recorded an average output of 1.46 mbpd; total production was 43.8 million barrels versus 45 million barrels under the quota. The deficit was 1.2 million barrels. In December, production hovered around 1.47 million barrels per day. Over the 31 days, Nigeria produced 45.57 million barrels instead of 46.5 million barrels, resulting in a gap of 930,000 barrels.

Cumulatively, these nine months produced a gross shortfall of approximately 18.7 million barrels.

However, January, June, and July recorded slight surpluses above the quota. After deducting the combined surplus from those three months, the net annual production deficit stood at 16.85 million barrels.

In January 2026, crude production stood at an average of 1.459 mbpd, resulting in a daily shortfall of 41,000 barrels per day. This translated to a shortfall of about 1.27 million barrels for the month. Consequently, from January 2025 to January 2026, Nigeria’s OPEC shortfalls accumulated to 18.12 million barrels.

According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, traded at elevated levels in the early part of the year before easing in the second quarter.

Bonny Light crude sold at an average of $80.76 per barrel in January 2025, declining to $77.08 in February and $74.44 in March. Prices dropped further in April to $69.07 and reached a low of $65.90 in May, reflecting softer global oil market conditions.

Prices recovered in June to $73.50 and remained largely stable in the third quarter, averaging $73.18 in July, $70.55 in August, and $70.20 in September, before falling again to $66.15 in October, the latest month for which CBN data were available.

Using the simple average of the 10 monthly Bonny Light prices published by the CBN, crude prices averaged $72.08 per barrel over the period under review. Multiplying 18.12 million barrels by $72.08 gives an estimated lost revenue of $1.31bn. At the prevailing exchange rate of N1,353 per dollar, this translates to approximately N1.76tn.

This loss came despite Nigeria’s total oil production for 2025 reaching 530.41 million barrels, generating gross revenue of about N55.5tn at the same average price and exchange rate.

Analysts noted that this figure represented gross inflows and did not account for production costs, joint venture cash calls, production-sharing contract cost recoveries, domestic obligations, or oil theft.

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According to them, the underperformance against the OPEC quota highlights structural challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, including operational disruptions, infrastructure constraints, security issues in the Niger Delta region, and fluctuations in production efficiency across different fields.

For comparison, Nigeria produced 1.54 mbpd in January 2025, exceeding the quota by 38,700 barrels per day, while the largest deficit occurred in September, when production averaged 1.39 mbpd, leaving a shortfall of about 110,000 barrels per day. These fluctuations underline the volatility that continues to affect Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.

The shortfall also provides context for the 2026 oil benchmark, which is more conservative. The government has set a projected daily oil (crude and condensate) production of 1.84 million barrels, a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, and an average exchange rate of N1,400 per dollar, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in global oil markets and domestic production challenges. However, the January 2026 figure is not a good start for the 2026 budget.

An energy expert, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, said meeting oil production targets would depend far less on ambitious projections and far more on practical, on-the-ground actions.

Iledare told The PUNCH that the government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity.

According to Iledare, Nigeria earned about N55tn from crude oil in 2025, up from roughly N50tn in 2024. “While this is an improvement, it still fell short of what the Federal Government expected for the year,” he said.

The don noted that the main issue was not oil prices but production. He explained that the government planned to produce 766.5 million barrels in 2025 but managed to produce only about 599.6 million barrels, meaning close to 167 million barrels were not produced, and the revenue that could have come with them was lost.

“Looking ahead to 2026, meeting oil production targets will depend far less on ambitious projections and far more on practical, on-the-ground actions. The government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity,” he stated.

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He added that supporting investment in maintenance and infill drilling — while ensuring policy consistency — will be critical to converting planned barrels into actual barrels.

The expert called on the Independent Petroleum Producers Group to lead the charge by reopening shut-in wells. “In this regard, the IPPG holds a key role in near-term production expansion. With appropriate economic and policy incentives, re-entry into shut-in wells in the onshore and shallow-water basins could deliver meaningful production gains within the year,” Iledare explained.

A professor of economics, Segun Ajibola, said crude production volume is dependent on several factors, many of which are beyond the immediate control of the government.

According to him, the government can deploy resources towards oil exploration, but the overall impact depends on technical cooperation by partners, joint ventures, developments in the global oil market, and environmental conditions, among others.

Ajibola maintained that the Nigerian situation is complex, as the key agency in charge, the NNPC, has been enmeshed in controversies over the period.

Meanwhile, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced about 1.46 million barrels of crude oil per day in January 2026, though output rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.46 mbpd in January.

Despite the marginal improvement, production remained below the 1.5 mbpd quota, marking the sixth straight month the country has missed its OPEC target, spanning August 2025 to January 2026.

However, the new Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, pledged to increase oil production. The NUPRC boss said her vision for the upstream sector rests on three pillars: production optimisation and revenue expansion; regulatory predictability and speed; and safe, governed and sustainable operations.

According to her, the agenda aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and the administration’s plan to grow Nigeria’s crude oil production to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030.

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Court freezes N448m assets in Keystone Bank debt recovery suit

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The Federal High Court in Lagos has ordered the freezing of funds and assets valued at N448,263,172.41 in a debt recovery suit instituted by Keystone Bank Limited against five defendants.

The order was made on March 26, 2026, by Justice Chukwujekwu Aneke following an ex parte application moved by Keystone Bank’s counsel Mofesomo Tayo-Oyetibo (SAN), against Relic Resources, Olufunmilayo Emmanuella Alabi, Uwadiale Donald Agenmonmen, The Magnificent Multi Services Limited, and Raedial Farms Limited.

In his ruling, Justice Aneke granted a Mareva injunction restraining the defendants, whether by themselves, their agents, privies, or assigns, from withdrawing, transferring, dissipating, or otherwise dealing with funds, shares, dividends, and other financial instruments standing to their credit in any bank or financial institution in Nigeria, up to the sum in dispute.

The court further directed all banks and financial institutions within the jurisdiction to forthwith preserve any funds belonging to the defendants upon being served with the order.

The said institutions were also ordered to depose to affidavits within seven days of service, disclosing the balances in all accounts maintained by the defendants, together with the relevant statements of account.

In addition, the court granted a preservative order restraining the defendants from disposing of, alienating, or otherwise encumbering any movable or immovable property, including any future or contingent interests, up to the value of the alleged indebtedness.

The court also granted leave for substituted service of the originating and other court processes on the second and third defendants by courier delivery to their last known addresses.

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The matter was adjourned to April 9, 2026, for mention.

According to the originating processes before the court, the suit arises from a N500 million overdraft facility granted by the claimant to the first defendant on March 28, 2023, for a tenure of 365 days at an interest rate of 32 per cent per annum.

The claimant averred that the facility, initially secured by a $200,000 cash collateral and subsequently by a mortgaged property located at Itunu City, Epe, Lagos, expired on March 27, 2024, leaving an outstanding indebtedness of N448,263,172.41 as at October 31, 2024.

In the affidavit in support of the application, the claimant alleged that the facility was diverted for personal use by the third defendant and channelled through the fourth and fifth defendant companies.

It further contended that the first defendant is no longer a going concern and has failed, refused, and neglected to liquidate the outstanding indebtedness despite several demands made between May and October 2025.

The claimant also expressed apprehension that the defendants may dissipate or conceal their assets, thereby rendering nugatory any judgment that may be obtained in the suit, and consequently urged the court to grant the reliefs sought in the interest of justice.

After considering the application and submissions of learned silk, Justice Aneke granted all the reliefs sought and adjourned the matter to April 9, 2026, for further proceedings.

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Sanwo-Olu unveils Lagos 2026 economic blueprint, vows inclusive growth

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The Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, on Tuesday unveiled the 2026 edition of the Lagos Economic Development Update, reaffirming his administration’s commitment to driving inclusive growth and ensuring that economic progress translates into tangible benefits for all residents of the state.

The unveiling of this year’s outlook, held in Ikeja, provides an in-depth analysis of the state’s economic trajectory, capturing global, national, and local developments shaping Lagos’ growth outlook.

Represented by his deputy, Obafemi Hamzat, the governor described the report as more than a policy document, noting that it serves as a strategic compass for guiding economic direction and strengthening decision-making.

He added that despite global economic headwinds — including post-pandemic recovery challenges, inflationary pressures, and exchange rate fluctuations — the state has remained resilient through deliberate policies, fiscal discipline, and sustained investment in critical infrastructure.

“It is with a deep sense of responsibility and optimism that I join you today to officially launch the third edition of the Lagos Economic Development Update — LEDU 2026.

“This platform has evolved beyond a mere policy document; it has become a compass guiding our economic direction, shaping decisions, and reinforcing our commitment to building a resilient, inclusive, and prosperous Lagos,” he said.

He noted that while the global economic environment has remained unpredictable, Lagos has stayed on course through “clarity, discipline, and foresight,” anchored on the T.H.E.M.E.S+ Agenda.

According to him, the state had strengthened its fiscal framework, improved revenue generation, and invested in infrastructure critical to long-term growth.

Sanwo-Olu further highlighted progress recorded since the inception of LEDU, including the expansion of the state’s economic base driven by innovation, entrepreneurship, and digitalisation; improved efficiency in revenue systems; and sustained infrastructure development spanning roads, ports, energy, and urban planning.

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He added that continued investment in human capital remains central, as “people are the true engine of growth.”

Speaking on the theme of this year’s report, “Consolidating Resilience, Advancing Competitiveness, Delivering Shared Prosperity,” the governor said it reflects Lagos’ current economic priorities.

He explained that consolidating resilience involves strengthening institutions and fiscal discipline, while advancing competitiveness requires boosting productivity, innovation, and investment.

Delivering shared prosperity, he added, means ensuring growth translates into jobs, expanded opportunities, and improved livelihoods for residents.

Looking ahead, he reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to economic diversification, private sector-led growth, data-driven governance, sustainable urban development, and social inclusion.

He also stressed the importance of partnerships with the private sector, development institutions, civil society, and the international community in achieving the state’s development goals.

“As we launch this edition of LEDU, I urge all stakeholders to engage actively, strengthen collaboration, and align with our shared vision.

“We have built resilience; now we must translate it into sustained competitiveness and ensure that growth delivers tangible prosperity for every Lagosian,” he said.

Also speaking, the state Commissioner for Economic Planning and Budget, Ope George, said Lagos has demonstrated remarkable resilience in navigating both global and domestic economic challenges.

“Lagos is not just responding to economic shocks — we are building systems that make us stronger because of them,” he said, noting that deliberate policies, disciplined fiscal management, and strategic investments have reinforced the state’s position as a leading subnational economy in Africa.

He added that the state would continue to prioritise economic diversification, private sector growth, sustainable urban development, and social inclusion, stressing that growth must be measured not only by numbers but also by its impact on people’s lives.

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In his goodwill message, Chief Consultant at B. Adedipe Associates Limited, Biodun Adedipe, described the LEDU initiative as a credible framework for tracking economic performance and refining development strategies.

He noted that Lagos remains central to Nigeria’s economy, adding that its continued growth signals broader national progress.

“If Lagos works, a significant share of Nigeria’s commerce works,” he said, expressing optimism about the state’s economic future.

Meanwhile, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, Tayo Adeloju, urged the state government to prioritise affordable housing as a critical driver of shared prosperity.

He noted that high housing costs could limit upward mobility for low-income earners, stressing that making housing more accessible would enhance living standards and support inclusive growth.

Adeloju added that sustained fiscal discipline, improved service delivery, and a broader productive base would further strengthen Lagos’ position among Africa’s leading megacity economies.

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Airlines in pricing limbo amid 180% Jet A1 price surge

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Airfares have remained stagnant in Nigeria despite the rising cost of aviation fuel by 184 per cent in the last two months, occasioned by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

However, sources in different airlines who did not want their names in print, considering the sensitivity of the matter, told The PUNCH on Tuesday that the “pressure of competition” among local carriers kept the airfares low.

Aviation fuel, which was sold at N900 per litre in January, increased to N1,121 per litre as of 26 February 2026 and now sells for N2,557 per litre.

Aviation fuel is the highest consuming commodity of airlines’ finances, taking about 40 per cent of airlines’ resources. This is closely followed by aircraft maintenance.

Despite the spike in fuel prices and the financial burden on airlines, competition has been keeping the airlines in check against upping their ticket prices. Between January and March 30, the product has increased by 184 per cent; yet, airfares still sell for between N106,286 and N147,000 across major routes in the domestic market.

A search on the booking portal of Ibom Air, for instance, shows the Lagos-Abuja flight for April 4 goes for N114,600, while Uyo to Abuja on the same airline and date also sells for the same N114,500.

For United Nigeria Airlines’ portal, the Kano-Lagos flight from April 1 to April 7 sells for N142,500 for a one-way ticket, while the Lagos-Port Harcourt flight for the same date goes for the same N142,500 on the airline’s portal.

Besides, the Lagos-Abuja flight for April 4 on Aero Contractors goes for N106,286, while the Asaba-Abuja flight on the same airline sells for N102,179.

However, Air Peace is the most expensive on the local scene, with Lagos to Abuja air tickets for April 3 bookings selling for N147,000, while the return ticket – Abuja to Lagos – also goes for the same rate.

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The airline source said that instead of the fares going up, the operators had kept them at the same price as two months ago, yet they were struggling to remain in business.

The source also attributed the situation to the number of scheduled indigenous operators, in spite of low passenger traffic.

As of the time of filing this report, there are about 15 scheduled operators, while another two airlines in February and March, Enugu Air and Binani Airlines, respectively, secured Air Operators’ Certificates from the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority, which would enable them to operate.

Nigeria’s passenger traffic has been on a steady decline in recent years. The industry recorded 15.6 million passenger movements on domestic and international routes in 2024, 15.8 million in 2023 and 16.2 million in 2022.

One of the sources said, “It’s the pressure of competition. Instead of going up, the pressure on pricing is downwards because of the number of players and the pricing they have entered the market with. It’s simply competitive pressure that keeps airfares stagnant.”

He, however, said that his airline was reviewing the current situation and would come up with a position in the coming weeks.

Data obtained from major fuel marketers in Nigeria indicated that aviation fuel currently goes for N2,557 per litre at Sokoto Airport, making it the airport with the most expensive sales of the product in Nigeria.

This is followed by Kano, which sells the product at N2,554 per litre, while both Port Harcourt and Asaba report rates of N2,543 per litre.

Besides, the product goes for N2,538 per litre at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja; Enugu airport, N2,535 per litre; and Warri airport, N2,530 per litre.

For Anambra airport, the product goes for N2,529 per litre; for Asaba airport, N2,528 per litre, with Lagos recording the cheapest rate of aviation fuel at N2,500 per litre.

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While operators refused to comment on the development despite calls and text messages, industry experts expressed their views. Aviation analyst Olumide Ohunayo warned that even if airlines make fare adjustments, they may not be sufficient to offset the mounting losses triggered by the sharp rise in aviation fuel prices, describing the situation as unsustainable for operators.

Ohunayo, who spoke amid growing concerns over escalating ticket costs, said airlines are caught in a difficult position where even significant fare increases may still fall short of covering operational expenses.

He said, “No matter the increase that they can make now, they may not be able to recoup their losses as a result of the fuel increase. When you compare the prices with other nations, you will discover that the fuel price in Nigeria is on the high side.”

He highlighted the rapid spike in fuel prices within a short period, noting that the trend has placed enormous pressure on airline operations.

The industry expert expressed concern that, unlike other countries, Nigeria has yet to implement measures to ease the burden on both operators and consumers.

He said, “It was about N1,000 in January, N1,500 in February, and it has now moved to over N2,500 in March. And this is the same country where Dangote is exporting this same fuel to Europe, and you will then begin to imagine what incentives are given to cushion this development.

“Other countries are bringing in their reserves to reduce the effects on the citizenry, and they have also reduced their taxes, in some cases up to 50 per cent. An example of that is Australia.”

Ohunayo questioned the response of the Nigerian government, urging authorities to act swiftly to prevent further strain on the aviation sector.

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He called for targeted interventions, including temporary tax reliefs for airlines, to help cushion the impact of rising costs, saying, “What is the Nigerian government doing to reduce the effect of this on Nigerians? So, I feel that no matter the eventual increase from airline operators, it still cannot be enough.

“There must be a way to support operators during this period, maybe by reducing their taxes for three months. There must be a way for the government to come in. Why are the operators the ones bearing the highest cost?”

A retired pilot, Muhammad Badamosi, has said airlines may be reluctant to further increase airfares despite rising operational costs, citing fears of losing passengers to road transport amid the current economic realities.

He said, “Yes, I think it’s the fear of losing passengers because Nigerians currently do not have money, and many may have to resort to road travel. Yes, we understand that that is taking a toll on the operators, but it is what it is. That is the condition Nigeria currently finds itself in.”

Badamosi explained that while airlines are under pressure to adjust fares in response to rising aviation fuel costs, they are also constrained by the risk of pricing themselves out of the market.

According to him, the situation has created a difficult balance for operators, who must navigate between sustaining their businesses and retaining customer patronage.

“For instance, I used to visit Kaduna once every two months, but now I have cut it down to three times a year. My frequency used to be six times a year; now I go there three times a year.”

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