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Nigeria loses N1.76tn after missing OPEC quota

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Nigeria’s oil sector lost an estimated N1.76tn in potential crude oil revenue due to its failure to meet the production quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from January 2025 to January 2026.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission revealed that the country’s crude oil production fell below the OPEC-set target of 1.5 million barrels per day in nine months in 2025 and repeated the same in the first month of 2026, even as global crude prices remained moderately strong.

According to the figures, Nigeria produced 1.54 mbpd in January 2025, exceeding its quota by about 40,000 barrels per day. Production also slightly exceeded the quota in June and July, with daily outputs of 1.51 mbpd, translating to surpluses of approximately 10,000–30,000 barrels per day.

However, production in February (1.47 mbpd), March (1.40 mbpd), April (1.49 mbpd), May (1.45 mbpd), August (1.43 mbpd), September (1.39 mbpd), October (1.40 mbpd), November (1.43 mbpd), and December (1.42 mbpd) fell below the benchmark.

The monthly shortfalls against the OPEC quota ranged from 10,000 barrels per day in April to 110,000 barrels per day in September, with the largest deficit recorded in September.

In February, average production stood at 1.47 mbpd. Over 28 days, this amounted to 41.16 million barrels, compared to the 42 million barrels expected under the quota, leaving a shortfall of 840,000 barrels. Output dropped further to 1.4 mbpd in March. Total production for the month was 43.4 million barrels instead of 46.5 million barrels, resulting in a deficit of 3.1 million barrels.

According to the data, crude production averaged 1.43 million barrels per day in April. Across 30 days, this translated to 42.9 million barrels, leaving a gap of 2.1 million barrels from the 45 million-barrel target for the month.

The fifth month recorded approximately 1.45 million barrels per day. Over the 31 days of May, Nigeria produced 44.95 million barrels against a quota requirement of 46.5 million barrels, leaving a deficit of 1.55 million barrels.

In August, production slipped to about 1.48 million barrels per day, yielding 45.88 million barrels compared to the expected 46.5 million barrels, creating a shortfall of 620,000 barrels. In September, production fell to 1.39 mbpd — the lowest in the year. Over 30 days, output reached 41.7 million barrels instead of 45 million barrels, leaving a shortfall of 3.3 million barrels.

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Similarly, in October, average production of 1.44 million barrels per day resulted in 44.64 million barrels compared to 46.5 million barrels expected. The shortfall was 1.86 million barrels.

November recorded an average output of 1.46 mbpd; total production was 43.8 million barrels versus 45 million barrels under the quota. The deficit was 1.2 million barrels. In December, production hovered around 1.47 million barrels per day. Over the 31 days, Nigeria produced 45.57 million barrels instead of 46.5 million barrels, resulting in a gap of 930,000 barrels.

Cumulatively, these nine months produced a gross shortfall of approximately 18.7 million barrels.

However, January, June, and July recorded slight surpluses above the quota. After deducting the combined surplus from those three months, the net annual production deficit stood at 16.85 million barrels.

In January 2026, crude production stood at an average of 1.459 mbpd, resulting in a daily shortfall of 41,000 barrels per day. This translated to a shortfall of about 1.27 million barrels for the month. Consequently, from January 2025 to January 2026, Nigeria’s OPEC shortfalls accumulated to 18.12 million barrels.

According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, traded at elevated levels in the early part of the year before easing in the second quarter.

Bonny Light crude sold at an average of $80.76 per barrel in January 2025, declining to $77.08 in February and $74.44 in March. Prices dropped further in April to $69.07 and reached a low of $65.90 in May, reflecting softer global oil market conditions.

Prices recovered in June to $73.50 and remained largely stable in the third quarter, averaging $73.18 in July, $70.55 in August, and $70.20 in September, before falling again to $66.15 in October, the latest month for which CBN data were available.

Using the simple average of the 10 monthly Bonny Light prices published by the CBN, crude prices averaged $72.08 per barrel over the period under review. Multiplying 18.12 million barrels by $72.08 gives an estimated lost revenue of $1.31bn. At the prevailing exchange rate of N1,353 per dollar, this translates to approximately N1.76tn.

This loss came despite Nigeria’s total oil production for 2025 reaching 530.41 million barrels, generating gross revenue of about N55.5tn at the same average price and exchange rate.

Analysts noted that this figure represented gross inflows and did not account for production costs, joint venture cash calls, production-sharing contract cost recoveries, domestic obligations, or oil theft.

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According to them, the underperformance against the OPEC quota highlights structural challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, including operational disruptions, infrastructure constraints, security issues in the Niger Delta region, and fluctuations in production efficiency across different fields.

For comparison, Nigeria produced 1.54 mbpd in January 2025, exceeding the quota by 38,700 barrels per day, while the largest deficit occurred in September, when production averaged 1.39 mbpd, leaving a shortfall of about 110,000 barrels per day. These fluctuations underline the volatility that continues to affect Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.

The shortfall also provides context for the 2026 oil benchmark, which is more conservative. The government has set a projected daily oil (crude and condensate) production of 1.84 million barrels, a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, and an average exchange rate of N1,400 per dollar, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in global oil markets and domestic production challenges. However, the January 2026 figure is not a good start for the 2026 budget.

An energy expert, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, said meeting oil production targets would depend far less on ambitious projections and far more on practical, on-the-ground actions.

Iledare told The PUNCH that the government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity.

According to Iledare, Nigeria earned about N55tn from crude oil in 2025, up from roughly N50tn in 2024. “While this is an improvement, it still fell short of what the Federal Government expected for the year,” he said.

The don noted that the main issue was not oil prices but production. He explained that the government planned to produce 766.5 million barrels in 2025 but managed to produce only about 599.6 million barrels, meaning close to 167 million barrels were not produced, and the revenue that could have come with them was lost.

“Looking ahead to 2026, meeting oil production targets will depend far less on ambitious projections and far more on practical, on-the-ground actions. The government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity,” he stated.

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He added that supporting investment in maintenance and infill drilling — while ensuring policy consistency — will be critical to converting planned barrels into actual barrels.

The expert called on the Independent Petroleum Producers Group to lead the charge by reopening shut-in wells. “In this regard, the IPPG holds a key role in near-term production expansion. With appropriate economic and policy incentives, re-entry into shut-in wells in the onshore and shallow-water basins could deliver meaningful production gains within the year,” Iledare explained.

A professor of economics, Segun Ajibola, said crude production volume is dependent on several factors, many of which are beyond the immediate control of the government.

According to him, the government can deploy resources towards oil exploration, but the overall impact depends on technical cooperation by partners, joint ventures, developments in the global oil market, and environmental conditions, among others.

Ajibola maintained that the Nigerian situation is complex, as the key agency in charge, the NNPC, has been enmeshed in controversies over the period.

Meanwhile, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced about 1.46 million barrels of crude oil per day in January 2026, though output rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.46 mbpd in January.

Despite the marginal improvement, production remained below the 1.5 mbpd quota, marking the sixth straight month the country has missed its OPEC target, spanning August 2025 to January 2026.

However, the new Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, pledged to increase oil production. The NUPRC boss said her vision for the upstream sector rests on three pillars: production optimisation and revenue expansion; regulatory predictability and speed; and safe, governed and sustainable operations.

According to her, the agenda aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and the administration’s plan to grow Nigeria’s crude oil production to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030.

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GenCos deny NLC’s ‘extortion’ claims, warn of looming power crisis

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Power generation companies in Nigeria have dismissed allegations by the Nigeria Labour Congress that electricity firms were engaged in “institutionalised extortion,” describing the claims as misleading and damaging to efforts aimed at stabilising the country’s fragile power sector.

The reaction was contained in a statement issued on Wednesday by the Chief Executive Officer of the Association of Power Generation Companies, Joy Ogaji.

Ogaji faulted recent remarks by the President of the NLC, Joe Ajaero, saying they did not reflect the realities of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry.

Ogaji stated, “While we acknowledge the frustrations of Nigerians regarding unstable electricity supply, we must firmly reject the characterisation of the sector’s challenges as robbery and a grand deception. Such allegations are a misrepresentation of the facts and a disservice to ongoing efforts to stabilise the power sector.”

According to the association, power generation companies remain the most financially exposed segment of the electricity value chain because they generate electricity that is not fully paid for due to revenue shortfalls across the market.

She added, “GenCos face the greatest risk in the electricity value chain, with outstanding unpaid invoices now exceeding N6tn. Rather than castigate operators, attention should be focused on addressing the liquidity crisis that threatens the sustainability of electricity supply.”

The association also rejected claims that proposed government financial support for the sector amounted to a political arrangement, insisting that intervention funds were necessary to prevent further deterioration.

“We strongly refute the insinuation that proposed government support for the sector is a clandestine plan to settle the boys. Such claims are baseless and undermine the critical liquidity interventions required to keep the lights on,” the statement added.

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The GenCos said they were open to scrutiny and willing to subject their financial records to independent forensic examination if required.

“If the NLC or any other institution considers it necessary, our books are available for any form of investigation. What is important is to identify the real causes of the sector’s challenges and work collaboratively toward sustainable solutions,” Ogaji said.

The development follows recent comments by the NLC accusing electricity firms of exploiting Nigerians through tariff adjustments and alleged hidden subsidies.

The power generators urged organised labour to engage constructively with stakeholders, warning that inflammatory rhetoric could discourage investment and worsen electricity shortages.

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No power, no growth, Dangote warns govt

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The President and Chairman of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday called on the Federal Government to urgently convene a national retreat to resolve Nigeria’s persistent electricity crisis, warning that widespread power outages could undermine the country’s industrialisation drive and economic growth.

Dangote made the appeal at the official national launch of the National Industrial Policy 2025 in Abuja, themed “From Policy to Productivity: Implementing Nigeria’s Industrial Future.”

The policy emerged against the backdrop of a weak manufacturing sector, which, due to poor electricity supply, high production costs, limited access to finance, infrastructure deficits, and heavy reliance on imports, has been constrained.

The event was attended by top government officials, captains of industry, and development partners, with President Bola Tinubu represented by Vice President Kashim Shettima.

In his goodwill message, Dangote stressed that without stable electricity, Nigeria would struggle to create jobs, drive industrial productivity, or achieve sustainable economic growth.

“One of the things that I want to advise Your Excellency, Mr Vice President, is to call a national forum where we will have a one- or two-day retreat and resolve the issues of power. Because without power, Mr Vice President, there is no way in any country you can create growth or create jobs. So, power means growth. No power, no growth. So we must make sure that we tackle this issue,” he said.

His comments were greeted with applause from participants, including the Vice President. Dangote noted that while government policies to support industrialisation were commendable, the electricity challenge remained the single most critical constraint to manufacturing and job creation.

“We know what you call industrial policy; it is actually very, very important because the government cannot create jobs. They can only facilitate. And I think they have already given us whatever we need to create jobs. The policies that they have put in place are very good. Nigeria is a very big market. Not only that, this is a market where we are supposed to be serving other African nations,” he added.

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However, he stressed that policy incentives alone were insufficient without strong infrastructure and protection of domestic industries.

“But one thing that we need is not only the policy. The policy is there. If you look at the incentives that we have for people to invest in Nigeria, actually, they are even more than what we need. The only thing that is remaining is the protection of industries.”

According to him, excessive importation remained a major threat to local manufacturing. “Even if you give us zero-interest loans, free land and power, if there is no protection, there is no way any industry will thrive here. Importation of anything is importation of poverty and exportation of jobs,” Dangote stated.

The billionaire industrialist lamented that many manufacturers now spend more on power generation than on production due to erratic electricity supply.

“So, people who are buying diesel, I would have loved to sell more diesel, but that is not the right way. The right way is to make sure there is power. Some factories spend more money generating electricity than producing goods. You have to set up your own power plant and also a standby. That does not make sense. There is nowhere you can get prosperity that way,” he added.

Dangote’s remarks came amid a recent five-day power supply disruption linked to gas maintenance activities, which triggered widespread blackouts across several parts of the country and heightened concerns among manufacturers and businesses.

Seven power plants across Nigeria experienced gas supply constraints between February 12 and 15, 2026, as Seplat Energy shut down a major facility for scheduled maintenance, leading to nationwide generation shortfalls.

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His comments reflected ongoing concerns in the organised private sector following the recent gas supply maintenance shutdown that affected power generation and led to load shedding across the country.

Stakeholders have repeatedly warned that frequent outages are forcing companies to rely on diesel and alternative energy sources, significantly raising production costs and contributing to inflation.

Dangote also highlighted the dominance of the private sector in Nigeria’s economy, urging stronger collaboration between government and businesses. “Nigeria is the only country in Africa where the private sector is bigger than the government. When you look at GDP, the private sector contributes almost 90 per cent, compared to the government’s 10 per cent,” he said. “We have what it takes to create massive consumption, massive industry, and disposable income.”

He added that entrepreneurs must also support national development by paying taxes and complying with regulations. “When we do our business, we must pay our taxes. It is a joint venture. The government is the major shareholder in every business. Today, the government makes more money in our cement business than anybody. But that is okay, so far they allow us to expand and prosper.”

Dangote further said recent economic reforms had improved investor confidence and currency stability. “With the policies that this government has implemented, people are beginning to see the results. Manufacturers are happy. The stability of the currency is encouraging investors to come into Nigeria,” he said.

He projected that the naira could strengthen further if import dependence is reduced. “We should manufacture what we consume. That is the only way to create jobs. If we block unnecessary imports and support local production, the naira will get stronger,” he said.

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He further urged the government to strengthen policies protecting domestic manufacturers from dumping and unfair competition. “If you allow imports, take into consideration our own constraints — high interest rates, infrastructure deficits, and electricity challenges. If dumping is allowed, nobody will survive,” he said.

Dangote added that the current policy direction was already attracting investors and boosting confidence in the Nigerian economy.

“The trajectory that we are on now is very high. Many people are trying to invest in Nigeria. The only thing that the government must emphasise is the protection of local industries. Once we do that, we will create jobs and reduce the burden on the government.”

He concluded by reiterating the need for urgent reforms in the power sector. “It takes a truly patriotic person to say, I love to produce diesel, but if I have my way, I would rather there is constant power, and I will not produce diesel again,” he said.

Nigeria has continued to grapple with electricity supply challenges, with power generation frequently disrupted by gas shortages, infrastructure vandalism, and maintenance shutdowns. The recent gas maintenance exercise led to a temporary drop in generation capacity and widespread outages, affecting households, manufacturers, and businesses.

Experts say a stable power supply remains critical to the success of the National Industrial Policy 2025, which seeks to boost local production, reduce imports, and position Nigeria as a manufacturing hub in Africa.

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Naira could hit N1,100 to $1 in 2026, says Dangote

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The Aliko Dangote, Chairman of the Dangote Group, has predicted a significant strengthening of the naira, saying the currency could reach N1,100 to a dollar this year.

According to Channels TV, Dangote made the remarks on Tuesday during the launch of the Nigeria Industrial Policy in Abuja, an event attended by Vice President Kashim Shettima and other dignitaries.

While the naira currently trades around ₦1,300 to a dollar, Dangote said government reforms signal better days ahead.

“I mean, today, if you look at it, Your Excellency, I believe with the policies that you have implemented in government, people now have started seeing the result, and manufacturers are very, very happy,” he said.

He added, “Today, the dollar is N1,340. Mr Vice-President, I can assure you that, with what I know, by blocking all this importation, the currency this year will be as low as N1,100 if we are lucky.

“The only thing is for, maybe, the government to stop the naira from getting stronger so that they will keep collecting more naira.

“But it’s a catch-22 situation where, now, if the naira gets stronger, it means that everything will go down. Everything will go down because we are an import-based country, which we shouldn’t be. What we should be doing is manufacturing all the things that we need.”

Dangote also called for stronger protection for local investors through incentives and infrastructure, highlighting power supply as a persistent challenge.

“While the policy is in order, it must be backed with full protection for industrialists to drive the nation’s goal for industrialisation, job creation, and economic growth,” he said.

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The remarks come as Nigerian stocks continue to perform strongly.

Bloomberg reported that Nigerian equities delivered the world’s second-best dollar returns in 2026, climbing 31% and recovering $21 billion in market value lost after the naira’s sharp devaluation in 2024.

Total market capitalisation on the Lagos Exchange now stands at about $84 billion, roughly 58% higher than before the naira’s collapse.

Otedola had previously predicted that the naira could trade below ₦1,000 to the US dollar before the end of 2026, following the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaching its full production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

He described the refinery’s output as “transformational for Nigeria and Africa” and said its ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily would shift the country’s energy narrative and conserve foreign exchange.

“I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below ₦1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach,” Otedola had said.

The naira has recently strengthened, trading around ₦1,354 to the dollar at the official foreign exchange market and about ₦1,430–₦1,440 on the parallel market — its strongest levels in more than two years, according to market sources.

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