Business

Petrol war: Importers outpace domestic refineries with 62% supply in 2025

Published

5 months ago

January 19, 2026

Petrol importation remained the dominant source of fuel consumed in Nigeria in 2025, accounting for 62.47 per cent of the country’s total Premium Motor Spirit consumption.

This trend persisted despite the commencement of operations, steady ramp-up in production and distribution of petrol by domestic refineries, notably the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, alongside state-owned refineries and several modular facilities, as revealed in the latest midstream and downstream sector factsheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

According to the newly released NMDPRA factsheet on the state of the midstream and downstream petroleum sector, as analysed by our correspondent on Sunday, total national petrol consumption by Nigerians stood at approximately 18.97 billion litres in 2025, with oil marketing companies accounting for 11.85 billion litres through imports, highlighting the market’s continued dependence on foreign supply.

This means that nearly two-thirds of petrol consumed by Nigerians in 2025 was sourced from imports, while domestic refineries contributed about 7.54 billion litres, representing 37.53 per cent of total consumption, the regulator stated.

These totals were derived by applying the daily average consumption to the number of days in each month. The data, which are based on volumes trucked into the domestic market, underscore Nigeria’s continued dependence on fuel imports, even as the Dangote refinery, currently the country’s only operational large-scale refinery, ramped up supply during the year.

Meanwhile, the volume of petrol imports is expected to decline significantly in 2026 if the Federal Government proceeds with the planned implementation of a 15 per cent import tariff on Premium Motor Spirit, slated to take effect in the first quarter of 2025, in line with a policy memo approved by President Bola Tinubu.

For decades, Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer, relied almost entirely on imported petrol following the prolonged underperformance of its state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. This dependence deepened after the refineries became largely dormant, forcing the country to meet domestic demand through imports financed with scarce foreign exchange and, for years, supported by a costly petrol subsidy regime.

The structure of the market began to shift in late 2024 with the commencement of operations at the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, widely regarded as a potential turning point for Nigeria’s downstream sector. The refinery, alongside smaller modular refineries and limited output from state-owned facilities, was expected to significantly cut import volumes, improve energy security, and stabilise fuel supply across the country.

However, regulatory data from the regulatory Authority show that while domestic refining and distribution improved steadily in 2025, imports remained dominant. The NMDPRA attributes this to factors including the gradual ramp-up of refining operations, crude supply arrangements, logistics constraints, and demand fluctuations following the full deregulation of petrol pricing.

2025 represents the first full year of large-scale domestic Premium Motor Spirit supply, limiting year-on-year comparisons, particularly as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery only commenced petrol distribution in the final quarter of 2024.

Regulatory data showed that between October and December 2024, total petrol consumption stood at 4.77 billion litres, out of which imports accounted for 3.61 billion litres, while domestic refineries supplied about 1.17 billion litres.

Against this backdrop, the latest midstream and downstream factsheet provides one of the clearest regulatory snapshots yet of Nigeria’s petrol market in a post-subsidy environment, highlighting both the gains made in domestic supply and the structural challenges that continue to sustain the country’s reliance on imported fuel.

A breakdown of the factsheet showed that Dangote refinery accounted for virtually all domestic PMS supply in 2025, supplying an average of between 17 million and 32 million litres per day, depending on the month, and a total of 7.534.9 billion litres for the entire year.

Based on its supply framework with the regulator and the Federal Government, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery was expected to deliver about 600 million litres of petrol monthly, translating to an annual benchmark of 7.2 billion litres.

However, NMDPRA data showed that the refinery supplied 7.54 billion litres in 2025, representing a shortfall of about 336 million litres, or roughly 4.7 per cent below the annual target, despite improved output towards the end of the year.

In December 2025, domestic supply rose sharply to 32 million litres per day, the highest monthly average for the year, while total domestic deliveries reached 992 million litres, signalling gradual stabilisation of operations.

The factsheet showed that total petrol consumption fluctuated significantly throughout the year, rising from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December, reflecting seasonal demand, logistics dynamics, and pricing conditions.

A month-on-month breakdown showed that Nigeria’s petrol consumption showed wide fluctuations throughout 2025, rising from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December, representing an overall increase of about 23.7 per cent over the year.

Total consumption declined sharply by 11.6 per cent, from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.41 billion litres in February, before rebounding by 11.8 per cent in March to 1.58 billion litres. Demand rose further in April to 1.66 billion litres, a 5.0 per cent increase, and peaked in May at 1.69 billion litres, up 1.8 per cent.

This was followed by a steep 14.6 per cent drop in June to 1.44 billion litres. Consumption recovered modestly in July (1.46 billion litres, up 1.6 per cent) and August (1.50 billion litres, up 2.5 per cent), before falling to its lowest level of the year in September at 1.31 billion litres, a 12.4 per cent decline.

Demand then surged by 33.8 per cent in October to 1.76 billion litres, dipped by 9.7 per cent in November to 1.59 billion litres, and climbed strongly by 24.4 per cent in December to 1.97 billion litres, the highest monthly level recorded in 2025.

Petrol imports by oil marketing companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited tracked these consumption movements and remained the dominant source of supply throughout the year.

Imports rose from 765.7 million litres in January to 770 million litres in February, an increase of 0.6 per cent, before jumping by 15.5 per cent in March to 889.7 million litres. Volumes dipped slightly by 3.2 per cent in April to 861 million litres, but surged sharply in May to 1.20 billion litres, representing a 39 per cent increase and accounting for about 71 per cent of total consumption for the month.

Imports declined by 18.3 per cent in June to 978 million litres, rose again by 14.4 per cent in July to 1.12 billion litres, and fell by 26.9 per cent in August to 818.4 million litres. September imports dropped further by 16.3 per cent to 685.1 million litres, before climbing by 30.8 per cent in October to 895.9 million litres.

November recorded a sharp spike to 1.56 billion litres, a 74.4 per cent increase, making imports equivalent to almost 98 per cent of total consumption that month. Imports eased in December to 1.31 billion litres, down 16.3 per cent, but still represented about two-thirds of monthly demand.

Similarly, domestic refinery supply, largely from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, showed a gradual but uneven improvement over the year. Supply rose from 592.1 million litres in January to 694.4 million litres in February, an increase of 17.3 per cent, and edged up further to 709.9 million litres in March, up 2.2 per cent. Output declined in April by 9.1 per cent to 645 million litres, and fell further in May by 11.1 per cent to 573.5 million litres.

The downward trend continued in June and July, with supply dropping to 543 million litres (down 5.3 per cent) and 511.5 million litres (down 5.8 per cent), respectively. Domestic supply rebounded in August by 20.0 per cent to 613.8 million litres, dipped slightly in September by 11.1 per cent to 545.6 million litres, and eased further in October to 530.1 million litres, down 2.8 per cent.

Output improved again in November to 585 million litres, a 10.4 per cent increase, before surging sharply in December to 992 million litres, representing a 69.6 per cent month-on-month rise and the strongest domestic supply performance of the year.

A further breakdown showed that in January, imports accounted for about 48 per cent of daily petrol consumption, while domestic refineries supplied around 37 per cent. Import dependence widened significantly in May, with marketers meeting about 71 per cent of daily demand, while domestic refineries contributed just 34 per cent. However, by December, domestic supply rose to about 50 per cent of daily consumption, narrowing the gap with imports, which accounted for roughly 66 per cent, reflecting the highest level of domestic participation recorded in 2025.

Imports consistently exceeded domestic supply in most months. In May, for instance, marketers imported 1.20 billion litres, representing about 71 per cent of total consumption for that month, while domestic refineries supplied just 573.5 million litres.

In contrast, December recorded the narrowest gap, with imports of 1.31 billion litres against the domestic supply of 992 million litres, as Dangote ramped up output and daily consumption rose to 63.7 million litres.

A further breakdown of the data showed that in January 2025, Nigeria recorded a daily average petrol consumption of 51.5 million litres, translating to 1.60 billion litres for the month. Of this volume, petrol importing marketers supplied an average of 24.7 million litres per day, amounting to 765.7 million litres. In comparison, domestic refineries delivered an average of 19.1 million litres daily, or 592.1 million litres in total.

In February, daily average consumption moderated to 50.4 million litres, with total monthly demand of 1.41 billion litres. Imports accounted for an average of 27.5 million litres per day, or 770 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 24.8 million litres daily, amounting to 694.4 million litres.

For March, average daily consumption rose slightly to 50.9 million litres, bringing total demand to 1.58 billion litres. Petrol imports averaged 28.7 million litres per day, totalling 889.7 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 22.9 million litres daily, or 709.9 million litres for the month.

In April, consumption increased further to a daily average of 55.2 million litres, with total demand of 1.66 billion litres. Importers supplied 28.7 million litres per day, amounting to 861 million litres, while domestic refinery output averaged 21.5 million litres daily, totalling 645 million litres.

Data for May showed average daily consumption of 54.4 million litres, translating to 1.69 billion litres for the month. Imports rose sharply to an average of 38.6 million litres per day, or 1.20 billion litres, while domestic refinery supply declined to 18.5 million litres daily, amounting to 573.5 million litres.

In June, daily average consumption fell to 48.0 million litres, with total demand of 1.44 billion litres. Petrol imports averaged 32.6 million litres per day, totalling 978 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 18.1 million litres daily, or 543 million litres.

For July, average daily consumption declined slightly to 47.2 million litres, bringing monthly demand to 1.46 billion litres. Importers supplied 36.1 million litres per day, amounting to 1.12 billion litres, while domestic refineries delivered 16.5 million litres daily, totalling 511.5 million litres.

In August, daily consumption improved to 48.4 million litres, with a total demand of 1.50 billion litres. Imports averaged 26.4 million litres per day, or 818.4 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 19.8 million litres daily, amounting to 613.8 million litres.

September recorded the lowest consumption levels of the year, with daily average demand at 43.8 million litres and total consumption of 1.31 billion litres. Import volumes averaged 22.1 million litres per day, totalling 685.1 million litres, while domestic refinery supply stood at 17.6 million litres daily, or 545.6 million litres.

In October, consumption rebounded sharply to a daily average of 56.7 million litres, translating to 1.76 billion litres for the month. Imports averaged 28.9 million litres per day, amounting to 895.9 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 17.1 million litres daily, totalling 545.6 million litres.

For November, average daily consumption eased to 52.9 million litres, with total demand of 1.59 billion litres. Importing marketers supplied an average of 52.1 million litres per day, totalling 1.56 billion litres, while domestic refinery output averaged 19.5 million litres daily, amounting to 585 million litres.

In December, petrol consumption surged to its highest level of the year, averaging 63.7 million litres per day and reaching 1.97 billion litres in total. Imports accounted for an average of 42.2 million litres per day, or 1.31 billion litres, while domestic refineries recorded their strongest performance of the year, supplying an average of 32.0 million litres daily, totalling 992 million litres.

Since the Dangote Petroleum Refinery began phased commercial operations in late 2024, its officials and some industry stakeholders have repeatedly asserted that the facility has the capacity to satisfy Nigeria’s petrol needs and reduce, if not eliminate, the need for imports.

Built with an ambitious 650,000‑barrel‑per‑day capacity, the plant has been positioned by its backers as a potential game‑changer for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector

In a statement outlining the refinery’s production profile, Anthony Chiejina, Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, said the plant was already producing above current national demand. He stated:

“Our refinery is currently loading over 45 million litres of PMS and 25 million litres of diesel daily, which exceeds Nigeria’s demand.”

Chiejina added that the refinery’s output was supporting nationwide supply stability and reducing dependency on imported products, with improved local production helping to moderate foreign exchange outflows and strengthen the naira.

Recently, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, revealed that marketers had been sourcing all their petrol supplies from Dangote and that “nobody is importing now,” even during high‑demand periods such as the Christmas season. He said:

“Well, since Dangote has reduced his price, and we have not complained of a shortage of products. There is no importation. So all the supplies we are getting now are from Dangote.”

Also, in earlier remarks reported in 2025, the Dangote group chairman, Aliko Dangote, asserted that the refinery had sufficient refined products in storage to meet domestic needs, saying:

“Right now, we have more than half a billion litres in storage. The refinery is producing enough refined products, gasoline, diesel, and kerosene to meet all of Nigeria’s needs.”

However, these claims remain contested. While some marketers and refinery officials describe importation as unnecessary under current supply arrangements, others note that domestic refining capacity has not yet consistently matched national consumption, and that imports continue to play a role in bridging supply gaps.

Commenting in an earlier report, renowned energy economist Professor Wumi Iledare, noted that Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol has declined but has not been eliminated. He also warned against claims that fuel importation has ended following increased domestic supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

In a personal note titled “Dangote Refinery, Petrol Imports, and Market Reality,” Iledare said recent assertions that Nigeria no longer imports petrol reflect “understandable optimism” but overstate the economic reality of the downstream oil market.

“Recent claims that petrol importation into Nigeria has ended because Dangote Refinery now meets domestic demand reflect understandable optimism, but they overstate economic reality.

Dangote Refinery has significantly improved domestic supply conditions and reduced Nigeria’s marginal reliance on imported petrol. However, neither Dangote Refinery nor petroleum marketers determine national supply outcomes,” he said.

Iledare, who also serves as Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Abuja, acknowledged that the Dangote Refinery has significantly improved domestic supply conditions and reduced Nigeria’s marginal dependence on imported petrol.

However, he stressed that neither the refinery nor the petroleum marketers determines national supply outcomes. According to him, Nigeria’s downstream petrol market operates within an oligopolistic, import-parity–anchored framework, where prices and supply stability are shaped by the option to import, rather than the physical presence of imported cargoes.

“Nigeria’s downstream petrol market operates within an oligopolistic, import-parity–anchored framework, where prices and supply stability are disciplined by the option to import, not merely the act of importing.

Even when no petrol cargoes are landing, the credible threat of imports remains the market anchor. Importation also continues to serve as a risk-management tool for stock security, demand surges, logistics disruptions, and refinery operational risks,” Iledare said, adding that importation continues to function as a risk-management tool for stock security, demand surges, logistics disruptions, and refinery operational risks.

The energy economist further noted that the Petroleum Industry Act entrenches liberalisation and competition in the downstream sector, leaving no room for discretionary declarations that petrol imports have ended.

“The PIA does not permit discretionary declarations that imports have ended. Sustainable price stability and energy security arise from market discipline, infrastructure efficiency, foreign exchange liquidity, and regulatory credibility, not announcements,” he said.

Iledare argued that the appropriate policy narrative should focus on reduced marginal import dependence, rather than import elimination, warning that imprecise language could undermine policy credibility.

“The correct policy framing, therefore, is reduced marginal import dependence, not import elimination. Precision in language matters because credibility in energy policy is built on economic fundamentals, not celebratory headlines,” he added.

In his expert opinion, the Chief Executive Officer of petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said the new data indicates that Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has grown significantly over the past three years, rising from less than five per cent in 2022 to about 40 per cent in 2025.

Olatide, who disclosed this in a telephone conversation on Sunday, described the development as a major milestone in the country’s long-standing quest to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.

“In 2022, local refining was less than five per cent. But three years later, it has increased to around 40 per cent according to NMDPRA. I think that is good, significant, and a big milestone,” Olatide said.

He explained that while the progress was commendable, Nigeria must push further to achieve meaningful macroeconomic stability. According to him, domestic refining must account for at least 70 per cent of national fuel consumption, with imports limited to 30 per cent.

“Local refining needs to be 70 per cent while import takes 30 per cent. That is the point where this would have direct influence on our economy, create more jobs, stabilise our naira, and deliver other benefits,” he stated.

Olatide noted that 2025 marked a turning point for the sector, largely driven by improved refinery performance and policy shifts aimed at boosting local supply.

He expressed optimism that subsequent industry reports would reflect further improvements. “By and large, I think in the year 2025, we have had a massive improvement and surge in local refining. Hopefully, subsequent reports will go up from the local refining angle, because that is what we need for economic stability,” he added.

He also identified crude oil availability as a critical constraint, particularly for the Dangote Refinery, which plays a dominant role in Nigeria’s refining landscape. Olatide said increasing crude allocation to the refinery could significantly reduce fuel imports.

“I hope in the new year, Dangote would have further access to crude, up from 30 to 40 per cent. More access to crude will really help, and then importation will reduce. The reason importation is still competing is largely because of pricing,” he explained.

Despite the positive outlook, Olatide raised concerns over conflicting production figures being reported by industry stakeholders. He pointed to recent claims by the new Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Refinery, David Bird, who said the refinery was loading about 1,000 trucks daily, equivalent to roughly 50 million litres of petroleum products.

“If you put those figures together, it suggests Dangote alone is doing about 60 to 70 per cent of our daily consumption,” Olatide said.

However, he noted that official figures from the NMDPRA paint a different picture. “NMDPRA is saying local refineries, including Dangote, are doing between 37 and 40 per cent. So clearly, there are conflicts in the reporting.”

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Business

Abia begins relocation of transport operators to new terminal

Published

2 hours ago

June 17, 2026

Newsbreak365_Admin

The Abia State Government has commenced the enforcement of its new centralised transport system in Umuahia, with the phased relocation of transport operators to the Nnenna Otti Bus Terminal, Umuahia.

The Commissioner for Information, Okey Kanu, made this known at Government House, Umuahia, on Tuesday while briefing newsmen on the outcome of this week’s State Executive Council (EXCO) meeting presided over by Governor Alex Otti.

The commissioner disclosed that, in order to ensure compliance by transport operators, the state government took time to hold a series of meetings with transport stakeholders, during which their concerns were addressed.

Kanu added that, following the steps taken by the government, full operations had commenced at the terminal, with informal transport operators and unions already moved to the facility, despite the normal resistance that accompanies change.

“There appears to be some push backs among some of the operators and this is as a result of the fact that people are not easily giving in to change.

“What is happening is that all the parks in the state have been moved to the bus terminal.

“The Honourable Commissioner for Transport and his team have been holding a series of meetings with all the operators. They had one yesterday. And a few of their anxieties will be addressed very soon. Enforcement also will commence today to bring all the operators into the terminal.

“The first phase of operations involves the operations of the Abia Green Shuttle buses. The second phase involves informal transport operators, while the third phase will involve the formal transport operators,” Kanu stated.

Answering questions from newsmen, the Commissioner for Transport, Dr Chimezie Ukaegbu, said the state government had not taken away anybody’s means of livelihood but had instead introduced a more organised system to sanitise the transport sector and improve it.

He revealed that transport unions and operators were told to bring four of their workers each to the terminal, where they would be properly identified with reflective tags and carried along.

He further noted that the terminal operates a transparent system that allocates loading opportunities on a first-come, first-served basis irrespective of union affiliations, insisting that about 80 to 90 per cent of operators had embraced the initiative. He added that continuous engagements were being held with those yet to fully comply with the government’s transport policy.

He equally noted that the government provided a drivers’ lodge, fully air-conditioned and furnished with seats, while passengers sit in a conducive air-conditioned environment, adding, “what else will you need as a transporter or even as a passenger? I think everything good about transportation is embedded in that Nnenna Otti Bus Terminal,” Ukaegbu stated.

Contributing, the Special Adviser to the Governor on Media and Publicity, Mr Ferdinand Ekeoma, said that the centralisation of transport operations would reduce urban congestion, indiscriminate loading bays, expenses incurred by transport operators on their loading bays, and security challenges associated with the influx of unregulated transport operators, thereby enabling transport operators to make more gains.

He added that, over the years, “we have seen transport operators extort people, by coming up with this organised system, we are solving our problems,” Ekeoma stated.

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Business

Court orders Virgin Atlantic to pay N13m for missed flight

Published

3 hours ago

June 17, 2026

Newsbreak365_Admin

A Federal High Court in Lagos has ordered Virgin Atlantic Airways Limited to pay Mrs. Joy Ezetah the sum of $5,906.50 in damages after it failed to allow her board a scheduled Lagos-London flight, an incident that disrupted her onward trip to Canada and caused her financial loss.

Justice Ibrahim Kala in the judgement delivered on Monday, held that the airline was liable for the losses suffered by the claimant after she was denied boarding at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport on 6 April 2024.

The claimant had asked the court for N100m in general damages, arguing that she bought a business-class ticket through Air Canada for a four-leg trip from Lagos to Toronto and back, but was stopped from boarding the Virgin Atlantic flight “without justification.”

She told the court that she arrived early, completed check-in, and was issued a boarding pass for the Lagos-London leg.

According to her, airline officials later prevented her from boarding, stating they could not connect her ticket to her Air Canada connecting flight from London to Toronto.

Ezetah stated that the airline owed her a duty of care and should have resolved the issue with Air Canada or made other arrangements instead of denying her boarding.

She further maintained that when she later contacted Air Canada, the airline confirmed that her ticket was valid and that she was expected on the connecting flight.

Virgin Atlantic, however, denied liability. It said it was “not the issuing carrier” and insisted that the ticket had been purchased directly from Air Canada under a codeshare arrangement.

The airline also argued that an error code in the reservation system prevented it from issuing a boarding pass for the connecting flight and that it acted professionally by advising the passenger to contact the ticket issuer.

It further contended that the claimant’s inability to complete online check-in before arriving at the airport showed that there was already a problem with the ticket.

After reviewing the evidence, submissions and legal authorities cited by both sides, Justice Kala held that the claimant’s case had merit.

The court awarded $5,906.50 in damages against Virgin Atlantic and ordered that the sum be paid using the prevailing exchange rate published by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Based on the highest official rate of N1,365.50 to a dollar, the award translates to about N8.07m.

Justice Kala also ordered the airline to pay 10 per cent interest per annum on the judgment sum until full liquidation of the debt.

Additionally, the court awarded N5m as costs against Virgin Atlantic, noting that the claimant had been forced to approach the court to enforce her rights.

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Business

States kick as Senate moves to amend Electricity Act; read details

Published

3 hours ago

June 17, 2026

Newsbreak365_Admin

A fresh battle over the control of Nigeria’s electricity sector is brewing, as state electricity regulators have accused the National Assembly of attempting to claw back powers already devolved to states under the Constitution and the Electricity Act 2023.

In a strongly worded memorandum submitted to the Senate Committee on Power and obtained by our correspondent on Tuesday, electricity regulatory commissions and bureaus from 16 states warned that the proposed Electricity Act (Amendment) Bill 2026 could reverse one of the most significant reforms in Nigeria’s power sector.

The regulators argued that the amendment bill, rather than strengthening the electricity market, seeks to restore extensive federal oversight over matters they insist have constitutionally become the responsibility of states.

The concerns were contained in a letter dated May 26, 2026, addressed to the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Power and signed on behalf of the State Electricity Regulatory Commissions and Bureaus.

Signatories to the document included the chairmen and chief executives of electricity regulators in Abia, Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Kogi, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo and Plateau states.

The regulators said they had taken advantage of the Electricity Act 2023 to begin building sub-national electricity markets and had already engaged investors based on the framework created by the law.

They noted that they had earlier met with the Senate committee and were subsequently requested to consolidate their concerns into a single memorandum for the consideration of lawmakers, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission and other stakeholders.

The letter stated, “We represent State Regulatory Commissions/Bureaus that have taken advantage of the Electricity Act 2023 to commence the development of our sub-national electricity markets and sectors.

We are grateful for the audience you granted us to raise concerns on the ongoing consideration of the proposed Amendment Bill 2026 to the Electricity Act 2023.

“As agreed during our discussion, we have collated and consolidated the comments into one document which is hereby attached for the consideration of the Senate and House Committees on Power, NERC and other stakeholders.”

The state electricity regulators said they had identified 17 contentious provisions in the proposed amendments to the Electricity Act that they believed could undermine the constitutional powers already granted to states in the electricity sector.

According to the regulators, the areas of disagreement include the authorisation of State Houses of Assembly to legislate on electricity matters, the supremacy of state laws within state electricity markets, and provisions seeking to retain federal control over all activities connected to the national grid.

Other disputed clauses relate to restrictions on states’ participation in the wholesale electricity market, matters concerning the Nigerian Wholesale Electricity Market, the authority of states over independent transmission and distribution networks, and the establishment and administration of the Power Consumers Assistance Fund.

The regulators also raised concerns over the proposed expansion of the powers of the Nigerian Electricity Management Services Agency, the structure and decisions of the Forum of Electricity Regulators, and the provision granting the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission final administrative appellate jurisdiction on certain issues arising within the forum.

They further opposed provisions designating electricity generation, transmission, distribution and supply as essential services, as well as clauses dealing with government-owned enterprises as licensees and obligations to host communities.

Additional areas of contention include the regulation of intra-state electricity matters that may have implications for the national grid, the imposition of timelines and phased conditions for states transitioning into independent electricity markets, and proposed federal oversight on consumer protection, anti-trust measures and tariff design within state electricity jurisdictions.

The regulators argued that the disputed provisions require further consultation to ensure that the decentralisation objectives of the Electricity Act are not weakened by subsequent amendments.

“A review of the Bill suggests that the general intention is to reverse the devolution of legislative, governance and regulatory powers over electricity matters that occur solely within the respective states to the state governments, in favour of a reconsolidation of powers at the federal level, with the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission retaining full supervisory powers over the market. Effectively, it appears that the intention of the Bill is that Nigeria should continue with the same regime that, for 20 years, has not led to any significant increase in power availability or per capita consumption for Nigerians, despite ever-increasing (and unsustainable) federal debt.”

At the centre of the dispute is the interpretation of the constitutional amendments that allowed states to legislate on electricity matters within their territories. The regulators argued that the proposed amendment bill wrongly assumes that state legislatures derive their powers from the National Assembly rather than directly from the Constitution.

According to them, any attempt by the National Assembly to grant, restrict or redefine those powers through ordinary legislation would amount to a constitutional violation.

The memorandum stated, “Section 2 of the Bill aims to amend Section 2(2)(a)-(e) of the Principal Act. By that section, the National Assembly reserves to itself the power to delegate legislative powers to States’ Houses of Assembly, suggesting that the Bill (or the Principal Act) is the source of the powers of a state to make laws on its electricity markets.

“This provision is based on a shocking miscomprehension of Nigerian constitutional law—it proceeds from the wrong assumption that the NASS, by ordinary legislation and not constitutional amendment, can confer (or restrict) the legislative power of states.

“The constitutional division of powers is fundamental to federalism, ensuring a balance between national unity and state autonomy. There is no legal framework for the NASS to ‘empower’ state governments to make law by ordinary legislation, as the language of the Bill attempts to do.

The regulators described as “a shocking miscomprehension of Nigerian constitutional law” the provisions of the bill that appear to suggest that the National Assembly is the source of states’ authority over electricity matters.

They warned that the proposed law could undermine the principle of federalism by weakening state autonomy. Beyond constitutional concerns, the regulators said the bill could create uncertainty in the electricity market and discourage investors who had already committed resources based on the existing legal framework.

“The clear intention behind the new drafting is to reconsolidate in the Federal Government matters solely within the state electricity markets which had been devolved to the states,” the memorandum stated.

“This will defeat the key objectives of the Electricity Act and the various states’ electricity laws, even before the regime introduced by them has taken any root. It will introduce avoidable disruption in the industry as significant investment decisions have already been taken based on the Electricity Act 2023, and these investments are now put at risk by this proposed amendment.”

The state regulators specifically faulted provisions relating to federal oversight of activities connected to the national grid, restrictions on state authority over wholesale electricity transactions, the proposed expansion of NERC’s powers and changes affecting mini-grids and independent distribution systems.

They argued that allowing NERC to retain overriding authority over electricity activities merely because they have some connection to the national grid would effectively render state powers meaningless.

The memorandum stated, “What is required, in order to attain the full benefits of the decentralisation of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry that is the theme of the Fifth Alteration and provided for in the Principal Act, is proper coordination on transmission matters between NERC and state regulators, and not top-down federal legislation.”

The regulators also rejected provisions that would permit NERC to exercise final administrative appellate jurisdiction over disputes involving state electricity regulators. According to them, NERC and the SERCs are on equal standing within their respective constitutional spheres of authority.

“NERC and the SERCs are on equal standing within their respective constitutional spheres of authority,” the memorandum said. “The National Assembly cannot arrogate to NERC quasi-judicial authority over SERCs, especially where the dispute might be on a matter over which NERC has no authority.”

They further argued that the Constitution already vests judicial powers in the courts and that such responsibilities cannot be transferred to a regulatory agency. The proposed establishment of a Forum of Electricity Regulators also drew criticism.

Although the regulators acknowledged the importance of coordination among electricity regulators, they argued that participation in such arrangements should be voluntary rather than imposed through federal legislation.

“The better approach would be a Memorandum of Understanding or similar instrument jointly negotiated by all relevant regulatory bodies in which the principles of coordination and harmonisation will be agreed,” they said.

The state regulators equally opposed provisions declaring generation, transmission, distribution and supply of electricity as essential services covering both federal and state electricity markets.

According to them, such provisions could inadvertently expand NERC’s jurisdiction into areas already devolved to states, including tariff regulation. “The provision is invidious, regressive and should be expunged,” the memorandum stated.

The regulators also faulted proposals empowering NERC to determine contributions to the Power Consumers Assistance Fund from electricity consumers. They argued that since electricity tariffs and retail supply have become matters for state regulation, decisions relating to subsidies and customer contributions should similarly reside with state authorities.

Other contentious areas identified by the regulators included host community obligations, the role of the Nigerian Electricity Management Services Agency, licensing arrangements involving government-owned electricity enterprises and timelines for states transitioning into independent electricity markets.

The dispute highlights the growing tension between the Federal Government and states over the future structure of Nigeria’s electricity industry. The Electricity Act 2023 was enacted following the Fifth Alteration to the 1999 Constitution, which removed electricity from the Exclusive Legislative List and empowered states to generate, transmit and distribute electricity within their territories.

Since then, several states have enacted electricity laws and established regulatory agencies to oversee emerging sub-national electricity markets. Lagos, Enugu, Ekiti, Ondo, Edo and other states have already commenced varying stages of implementation of their electricity reform programmes.

Energy experts have repeatedly described the decentralisation of the sector as a major opportunity to attract investment, improve efficiency and expand access to electricity. However, the latest amendment proposals appear to have reopened the debate over how regulatory powers should be shared between Abuja and the states.

As the National Assembly continues deliberations on the amendment bill, the position adopted by lawmakers could shape the future direction of Nigeria’s electricity reforms and determine whether the country deepens its experiment with decentralisation or returns to a more centralised regulatory model.

The Electricity Act 2023 was designed to operationalise the constitutional amendments that empowered states to participate directly in electricity generation, transmission and distribution within their boundaries. Since its enactment, several states have passed their own electricity laws and established regulatory commissions.

The proposed Electricity Act (Amendment) Bill 2026 seeks to amend several provisions of the principal legislation. However, state regulators contend that some of the proposed changes amount to an attempt to reverse the gains of decentralisation and restore broad federal control over the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry.

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