The Sunday Magazine – Political Desk Feature

As Nigeria moved closer to the 2007 general elections, political attention was heavily focused on the complex relationship between President Olusegun Obasanjo and his Vice President, Atiku Abubakar. A front-page headline from The Sunday Magazine captured the debate succinctly: “Why Atiku Abubakar Cannot Succeed Obasanjo.” The article reflected the prevailing political tensions, intra-party struggles, and the battle for succession within the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Background: The Obasanjo-Atiku Partnership

Atiku Abubakar, a seasoned politician and businessman from Adamawa State, rose to national prominence in the late 1990s. As Obasanjo’s running mate, he played a critical role in the PDP’s victory in the 1999 and 2003 elections. Initially, their partnership seemed mutually beneficial: Obasanjo brought national appeal as a former military Head of State, while Atiku commanded grassroots loyalty, particularly in the North, and maintained extensive political networks.

However, by the second term of the administration, their alliance had begun to fracture. Ideological differences, conflicting ambitions, and control over the PDP machinery became flashpoints. By 2005, tensions had escalated to the point where open rivalry was undeniable.

The Third Term Agenda and Its Fallout

One of the central issues straining their relationship was the alleged “Third Term Agenda.” Reports suggested that Obasanjo and his loyalists were exploring a constitutional amendment that would allow him to remain in power beyond 2007. Atiku was among those who resisted this move, positioning himself as a defender of democratic succession.

This resistance came at a political cost. Obasanjo’s allies within the PDP began sidelining Atiku, undermining his access to party structures. The Sunday Magazine article emphasized that this political rift significantly reduced Atiku’s chances of emerging as Obasanjo’s chosen successor.

The PDP Machinery and Atiku’s Challenge

The PDP, as Nigeria’s dominant political party at the time, was the main platform for electoral success. However, its control rested in the hands of the President and the party’s National Executive Committee. The magazine noted that the “National Chairman of the All Peoples Liberation Party (APLP)” even weighed in, observing that without Obasanjo’s blessing, Atiku’s path to the presidency through the PDP was nearly impossible.

The article highlighted how Obasanjo, through influence over party primaries, campaign funding, and state apparatus, could effectively block Atiku’s candidacy. Internal suspensions, corruption allegations, and orchestrated media attacks further weakened the Vice President’s standing.

The Road to 2007 and Atiku’s Dilemma

As the 2007 elections approached, Atiku faced mounting obstacles. His strained relationship with Obasanjo, the loss of influence within the PDP, and the possibility of disqualification due to corruption probes all combined to erode his political prospects.

The Sunday Magazine analysis argued that even though Atiku commanded significant grassroots support and had loyalists across the North, these factors alone were insufficient to overcome the machinery of the ruling establishment. The conclusion was clear: Obasanjo was unlikely to hand over power to his Vice President, and without Obasanjo’s endorsement, Atiku’s chances of succeeding him were slim.

Legacy of the Rift

History later confirmed much of this analysis. Atiku eventually defected from the PDP and joined the Action Congress (AC), under which he contested the 2007 presidential election. He finished third, behind Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (the PDP candidate) and Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). Obasanjo, true to predictions, had instead endorsed Yar’Adua as his successor, ensuring Atiku was sidelined.

This episode marked a turning point in Nigerian politics, exposing the fragility of alliances built on convenience rather than trust. It also showcased the dominance of incumbency and party machinery in shaping succession.

The Sunday Magazine headline, “Why Atiku Abubakar Cannot Succeed Obasanjo,” was not mere speculation—it reflected the political reality of the time. Despite Atiku’s popularity and ambition, the combination of Obasanjo’s resistance, PDP’s internal structures, and lingering corruption allegations ultimately blocked his path. The struggle between the two men remains one of the defining stories of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, underlining the often bitter and personal nature of political succession in the country.

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