Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product rose by 4.23 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest figures released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The performance was stronger than the 3.48 per cent growth recorded in the same period of 2024, showing that the economy gained momentum despite persistent structural challenges. The bureau explained that the quarterly estimates followed the rebasing of GDP using 2019 as the base year, allowing comparisons to track the pace of expansion across sectors.

The report read, “Following the rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product using 2019 as the base year, previous quarterly GDP estimates were benchmarked to the rebased annual estimates to align the old series with the new rebased estimates.

“This procedure provided a new quarterly GDP series, which is compared to the 2025 second quarter estimates. Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.23 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the second quarter of 2025.

This growth rate is higher than the 3.48 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2024.”

But senior officials of the Nigeria Labour Congress challenged the credibility of the figures, arguing that they failed to capture the worsening conditions faced by workers and households.

“When we talk about GDP growth, the key question is how it impacts the lives of the people.

If the figure is in doubt, or if it does not translate into better living conditions, then it is meaningless. That is what we call growth without development,” an NLC official, who spoke to one of our correspondents in confidence due to lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, stated.

The official added, “Right now, many people are being manipulated because of upcoming elections. The GDP figures being quoted are based on the 2019 rebasing. But when statistics do not reflect realities on the ground, they are useless to the citizenry. Any economic indicator that fails to capture reality loses credibility.”

The President of the Trade Union Congress, Festus Osifo, did not respond to a request for comment.

Another senior NLC official took aim at Nigeria’s reported unemployment data, which put the jobless rate at about four per cent. “That is a falsehood, a construct of neoliberalism to mask the impact of failed policies being pushed on developing countries,” the official said. “We know unemployment is far higher than four per cent. So as long as these statistics fail to reflect reality, they are useless for economic planning.”

The union leader added, “Do you see the 4.23 per cent GDP growth in your life? I don’t. Conditions are worsening, workers are suffering, yet officials claim the economy is growing. The economy is not growing. An economy must be managed for the people. When it is not, politicians invent stories to justify their claims, and this is one of them.”

Meanwhile, the NBS report stated that the value of the economy stood at N100.73tn in nominal terms, up from N84.48tn in the second quarter of 2024, representing a 19.23 per cent increase. Much of the growth came from the oil sector, which rebounded on the back of higher crude output.

Average daily production climbed to 1.68 million barrels per day, compared with 1.41 million barrels per day in the same quarter of 2024 and 1.62 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025. This lifted the oil sector’s real growth to 20.46 per cent, a sharp turnaround from the 1.87 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter.

Its contribution to the overall economy rose to 4.05 per cent, up from 3.51 per cent a year earlier. Mining and quarrying, which includes crude petroleum, coal, and other minerals, also posted strong numbers, expanding by 20.86 per cent in real terms, with quarrying up by 50.41 per cent and coal mining higher by 32.59 per cent.

Still, the non-oil economy maintained its dominance, accounting for 95.95 per cent of total output. It grew by 3.64 per cent in real terms, compared with 3.26 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2024 and 3.19 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.

The expansion was driven by agriculture, telecommunications, real estate, finance, trade, construction, and energy-related services. Agriculture grew by 2.82 per cent, a recovery from the marginal 0.07 per cent reported in the first quarter, though its share of the economy slipped to 26.17 per cent from 26.53 per cent a year earlier.

Industry recorded growth of 7.45 per cent, more than double the 3.72 per cent growth posted in the same period last year. Manufacturing, however, slowed to 1.60 per cent and its share of GDP dropped to 7.81 per cent.

Construction expanded by 5.27 per cent but contracted sharply on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The services sector grew by 3.94 per cent, up from 3.83 per cent in the same quarter of 2024.

Trade contributed 18.28 per cent to the economy, but growth slowed to 1.29 per cent from 1.82 per cent a year ago. Information and communication rose by 6.61 per cent, contributing 11.18 per cent to GDP, while finance and insurance surged by 16.13 per cent, raising its share to 3.23 per cent.

Transportation and storage grew by 22.09 per cent, higher than the 0.56 per cent contribution recorded in the previous year. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply also expanded by 11.47 per cent, while water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation grew by 10.60 per cent.

Together, they boosted the utilities subsector’s contribution to the wider economy. The latest figures confirm that while oil provided a major lift to overall growth in the second quarter, the non-oil sector continues to anchor the economy.

Earlier in July 2025, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, stated that Nigeria needs to achieve at least a seven per cent annual economic growth to significantly improve the lives of its poorest and most vulnerable citizens.

Referring to the country’s GDP, the minister said, “To really help the poorest and most vulnerable, we need to be doing around seven per cent per annum.” In May 2025, Edun charged top management staff of the Federal Ministry of Finance to drive reforms that will accelerate Nigeria’s GDP growth to seven per cent per annum in line with the Renewed Hope Agenda of the Tinubu administration.

Economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said Nigeria’s economy is on the path of recovery following the latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

“The GDP numbers point to the fact that the economy is on a recovery path. You can see that there’s an improvement in the GDP figures from what we had in Q1. In Q1, we had a 3.13 per cent GDP. In Q2, we have a 4.23 per cent GDP growth. This is quite remarkable, and it shows that quite a number of the policies of governments are actually on course,” he said.

OPS reacts

Members of the organised private sector urged the Federal Government to prioritise growth in the real sector of the economy, despite Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product recording a 4.23 per cent increase in the second quarter of 2025.

They expressed reservations about the implications of these figures in the real-time finances of the consuming public. In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, private sector operators warned that the figures mask underlying weaknesses in critical areas.

The President of the Association of Small Business Owners, Dr Femi Egbesola, cautioned that macroeconomic growth was not translating into tangible benefits for households and businesses.

Egbesola stated, “GDP is growing and it has been stable for some time now, and it is a sign of hope. However, as much as we have macroeconomic growth, I think it is important to see it reflected in businesses, in households, and in the individual lives of citizens. That is not happening at the moment.”

He described the state of the real sector, especially manufacturing, as a “red flag,” warning that the collapse of smaller businesses could worsen hardship.

He added, “That’s supposed to be the engine that drives the economy. When the manufacturing sector of any economy is challenged, it’s a red flag. If it continues like this, eventually you will see growth in larger corporations, or deaths in small businesses, and suffering in households.”

Egbesola also pointed out that trade had shrunk in the latest report, citing reduced consumer purchasing power and persistent trade barriers as key challenges. He stressed that “government should not just look at the books and become happy and complacent by increasing GDP, but begin to look inward on how they can help average Nigerians and average businesses.”

The National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, said real sector growth remained the critical yardstick for measuring economic progress.

Kuti-George said, “The growth in GDP is a positive development. However, it would have been better if it were in the real sector. Growth in services is very welcome, but what they call real growth is actually in the real sector. So, if that is not growing, more attention should be given to it.”

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