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NBS announces 4.23% economic growth, labour disagrees

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Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product rose by 4.23 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest figures released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The performance was stronger than the 3.48 per cent growth recorded in the same period of 2024, showing that the economy gained momentum despite persistent structural challenges. The bureau explained that the quarterly estimates followed the rebasing of GDP using 2019 as the base year, allowing comparisons to track the pace of expansion across sectors.

The report read, “Following the rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product using 2019 as the base year, previous quarterly GDP estimates were benchmarked to the rebased annual estimates to align the old series with the new rebased estimates.

“This procedure provided a new quarterly GDP series, which is compared to the 2025 second quarter estimates. Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.23 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the second quarter of 2025.

This growth rate is higher than the 3.48 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2024.”

But senior officials of the Nigeria Labour Congress challenged the credibility of the figures, arguing that they failed to capture the worsening conditions faced by workers and households.

“When we talk about GDP growth, the key question is how it impacts the lives of the people.

If the figure is in doubt, or if it does not translate into better living conditions, then it is meaningless. That is what we call growth without development,” an NLC official, who spoke to one of our correspondents in confidence due to lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, stated.

The official added, “Right now, many people are being manipulated because of upcoming elections. The GDP figures being quoted are based on the 2019 rebasing. But when statistics do not reflect realities on the ground, they are useless to the citizenry. Any economic indicator that fails to capture reality loses credibility.”

The President of the Trade Union Congress, Festus Osifo, did not respond to a request for comment.

Another senior NLC official took aim at Nigeria’s reported unemployment data, which put the jobless rate at about four per cent. “That is a falsehood, a construct of neoliberalism to mask the impact of failed policies being pushed on developing countries,” the official said. “We know unemployment is far higher than four per cent. So as long as these statistics fail to reflect reality, they are useless for economic planning.”

The union leader added, “Do you see the 4.23 per cent GDP growth in your life? I don’t. Conditions are worsening, workers are suffering, yet officials claim the economy is growing. The economy is not growing. An economy must be managed for the people. When it is not, politicians invent stories to justify their claims, and this is one of them.”

Meanwhile, the NBS report stated that the value of the economy stood at N100.73tn in nominal terms, up from N84.48tn in the second quarter of 2024, representing a 19.23 per cent increase. Much of the growth came from the oil sector, which rebounded on the back of higher crude output.

Average daily production climbed to 1.68 million barrels per day, compared with 1.41 million barrels per day in the same quarter of 2024 and 1.62 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025. This lifted the oil sector’s real growth to 20.46 per cent, a sharp turnaround from the 1.87 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter.

Its contribution to the overall economy rose to 4.05 per cent, up from 3.51 per cent a year earlier. Mining and quarrying, which includes crude petroleum, coal, and other minerals, also posted strong numbers, expanding by 20.86 per cent in real terms, with quarrying up by 50.41 per cent and coal mining higher by 32.59 per cent.

Still, the non-oil economy maintained its dominance, accounting for 95.95 per cent of total output. It grew by 3.64 per cent in real terms, compared with 3.26 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2024 and 3.19 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.

The expansion was driven by agriculture, telecommunications, real estate, finance, trade, construction, and energy-related services. Agriculture grew by 2.82 per cent, a recovery from the marginal 0.07 per cent reported in the first quarter, though its share of the economy slipped to 26.17 per cent from 26.53 per cent a year earlier.

Industry recorded growth of 7.45 per cent, more than double the 3.72 per cent growth posted in the same period last year. Manufacturing, however, slowed to 1.60 per cent and its share of GDP dropped to 7.81 per cent.

Construction expanded by 5.27 per cent but contracted sharply on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The services sector grew by 3.94 per cent, up from 3.83 per cent in the same quarter of 2024.

Trade contributed 18.28 per cent to the economy, but growth slowed to 1.29 per cent from 1.82 per cent a year ago. Information and communication rose by 6.61 per cent, contributing 11.18 per cent to GDP, while finance and insurance surged by 16.13 per cent, raising its share to 3.23 per cent.

Transportation and storage grew by 22.09 per cent, higher than the 0.56 per cent contribution recorded in the previous year. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply also expanded by 11.47 per cent, while water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation grew by 10.60 per cent.

Together, they boosted the utilities subsector’s contribution to the wider economy. The latest figures confirm that while oil provided a major lift to overall growth in the second quarter, the non-oil sector continues to anchor the economy.

Earlier in July 2025, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, stated that Nigeria needs to achieve at least a seven per cent annual economic growth to significantly improve the lives of its poorest and most vulnerable citizens.

Referring to the country’s GDP, the minister said, “To really help the poorest and most vulnerable, we need to be doing around seven per cent per annum.” In May 2025, Edun charged top management staff of the Federal Ministry of Finance to drive reforms that will accelerate Nigeria’s GDP growth to seven per cent per annum in line with the Renewed Hope Agenda of the Tinubu administration.

Economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said Nigeria’s economy is on the path of recovery following the latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

“The GDP numbers point to the fact that the economy is on a recovery path. You can see that there’s an improvement in the GDP figures from what we had in Q1. In Q1, we had a 3.13 per cent GDP. In Q2, we have a 4.23 per cent GDP growth. This is quite remarkable, and it shows that quite a number of the policies of governments are actually on course,” he said.

OPS reacts

Members of the organised private sector urged the Federal Government to prioritise growth in the real sector of the economy, despite Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product recording a 4.23 per cent increase in the second quarter of 2025.

They expressed reservations about the implications of these figures in the real-time finances of the consuming public. In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, private sector operators warned that the figures mask underlying weaknesses in critical areas.

The President of the Association of Small Business Owners, Dr Femi Egbesola, cautioned that macroeconomic growth was not translating into tangible benefits for households and businesses.

Egbesola stated, “GDP is growing and it has been stable for some time now, and it is a sign of hope. However, as much as we have macroeconomic growth, I think it is important to see it reflected in businesses, in households, and in the individual lives of citizens. That is not happening at the moment.”

He described the state of the real sector, especially manufacturing, as a “red flag,” warning that the collapse of smaller businesses could worsen hardship.

He added, “That’s supposed to be the engine that drives the economy. When the manufacturing sector of any economy is challenged, it’s a red flag. If it continues like this, eventually you will see growth in larger corporations, or deaths in small businesses, and suffering in households.”

Egbesola also pointed out that trade had shrunk in the latest report, citing reduced consumer purchasing power and persistent trade barriers as key challenges. He stressed that “government should not just look at the books and become happy and complacent by increasing GDP, but begin to look inward on how they can help average Nigerians and average businesses.”

The National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, said real sector growth remained the critical yardstick for measuring economic progress.

Kuti-George said, “The growth in GDP is a positive development. However, it would have been better if it were in the real sector. Growth in services is very welcome, but what they call real growth is actually in the real sector. So, if that is not growing, more attention should be given to it.”

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Reps to mediate in PENGASSAN, Dangote refinery dispute

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The House of Representatives on Tuesday resolved to intervene in the recent face-off between members of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria and the Dangote Refinery, which had disrupted petroleum product distribution nationwide.

The resolution of the House followed the consideration and adoption of a motion of urgent public importance co-sponsored by Kano and Sokoto lawmakers, Alhassan Doguwa and Abdussamad Dasuki, respectively, at Tuesday’s plenary.

Titled: “Need to protect private investment from adversarial unionism,” the lawmakers drew the attention of their colleagues to the significance of the Dangote Refinery, describing it as the largest private petroleum refinery in Africa.

The face-off between PENGASSAN and the Dangote Refinery led to an industrial action which commenced on September 29, 2025, disrupting the operations at the $20bn refinery.

It also led to a disruption in Nigeria’s crude oil production, with a reported daily loss of approximately 200,000 barrels over three days.

The disruption worsened the petroleum supply situation across the country, resulting in scarcity and long queues at filling stations in several states, resulting in severe hardship for millions of Nigerians.

Speaking on the motion, Doguwa, who represents Doguwa/Tudun Wada Federal Constituency, Kano State, stressed the need to protect the Dangote Refinery given its strategic significance to the nation’s economy.

He said, “The House is aware that the Dangote Refinery is a strategic private investment of immense national importance, with the potential to guarantee energy security, reduce import dependency, generate employment, and conserve foreign exchange.

“We are aware that the Dangote Refinery operates within a Free Trade Zone, and therefore falls under the regulatory framework of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority, particularly Section 18(5) of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Act which clearly states that ‘Employment in the free zone shall be governed by rules and regulations made by the Authority and not subject to the provisions of any enactments relating to employment matters.’

“The House is concerned that actions by labour unions that disregard the legal protections conferred on Free Zones under the NEPZA Act not only constitute a breach of law but also create a hostile investment environment that may deter future local and foreign investors;

“We are worried that if private investments of strategic national importance are continually subjected to unlawful disruptions by adversarial unionism, Nigeria risks not only the failure of key economic assets but also the erosion of investor confidence necessary for national growth and development.”

In his contribution, the member representing Chibok/Damboa/Gwoza Federal Constituency, Ahmad Jaha, urged the House to tread carefully, adding that the call for a probe as prayed by the motion was ill-timed.

Following the adoption of the motion, the House urged its leadership to broker peace between the two parties in the interest of the nation.

It also urged the Federal Ministries of Labour and Employment, Industry, Trade and Investment, as well as Justice, to “Jointly develop and implement a national framework or set of policies to safeguard private investments of strategic national importance from adversarial and unlawful union actions.”

It further charged the Federal Ministry of Justice and NEPZA to ensure full enforcement and compliance with the provisions of Section 18(5) of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Act in all relevant Free Zone operations.

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Debt dispute: Drama as Max Air pilot refuses to fly

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Drama unfolded at Maiduguri International Airport on Monday as over 100 Max Air’s passengers of were left stranded for hours due to a face-off between the airline’s pilots and management over unpaid debts.

The incident caused panic and confusion among travellers who had already boarded the aircraft and were awaiting departure.

According to an eyewitness who refused to give her name for fear of the unknown, the pilots refused to proceed with the flight, which the flight attendants blamed solely on the pilot’s unpaid entitlements.

This shocking development held the scheduled airline to ransom for some hours, sparking tension among the passengers, with the development forcing them to disembark in frustration after being informed of the dispute and refusal of the pilot to fly.

Another eyewitness who gave his name simply as Shola told The PUNCH that the pilots were protesting unresolved financial issues with the airline.

The traveller who was aboard the affected flight confirmed that boarding had been completed when the airline staff members suddenly instructed passengers to leave the aircraft and return to the terminal.

“We had all taken our seats and were waiting to take off when they asked us to disembark,” the source said.

According to the same source, passengers waited for several hours in uncertainty before the matter was eventually resolved.

“There was tension initially, but after some time, we were told the issue had been settled. We were later asked to re-board the aircraft,” the traveller said.

Confirming the development, the Director of Public Affairs and Consumer Protection at the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority, Michael Achimugu, confirmed the incident, adding that the dispute appeared to have been resolved amicably by both parties without regulatory intervention.

“The flight later departed around past 2:00 pm, which means the issue was resolved. Since it was an internal matter, and the aircraft eventually flew, we consider it closed.”

The NCAA spokesman said. “We typically don’t intervene in salary-related disputes unless a formal report is submitted.”

He further emphasised that while the NCAA regulates safety and operational standards, issues such as wage disputes between staff and management are typically handled internally by the airline unless safety is compromised.

Max Air’s Executive Director, Shehu Wada, also confirmed the development, describing it as a result of miscommunication.

“It is a communication gap issue, and it has been resolved. That is how I can describe it basically,” he said.

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Petrol tops Nigeria’s imports with 613.6m litres in one year

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Nigerians consumed a total of 613.62 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol, for transportation, power generation, and other domestic uses between October 2024 and October 10, 2025.

This is according to fresh data obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority obtained by our correspondent on Monday in Abuja.

Despite the ramp-up in operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other local plants, imported petrol still accounted for a larger share of the country’s total fuel supply during the period under review.

Out of the total 613.62 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit consumed between October 2024 and October 10, 2025, the NMDPRA data revealed that 236.08 million litres were supplied by domestic refineries, while 377.54 million litres came through imports.

The figures indicate that imported petrol still accounted for the bulk of Nigeria’s fuel needs within the period, with imports dominating supply, contributing about 63 per cent of Nigeria’s PMS needs.

While local refineries, led by the 650,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery, provided the remaining 37 per cent, marking a significant improvement from the previous year’s levels.

The NMDPRA data further indicated that domestic production rose steadily from 9.62 million litres per day in October 2024 to 18.93 million litres per day by October 2025, showing a near 100 per cent increase within the one-year period.

Conversely, import volumes declined sharply from 46.38 million litres per day in October 2024 to 15.11 million litres per day in October 2025, reflecting a 67 per cent drop.

A monthly breakdown of the data revealed a steady decline in petrol importation and a gradual rise in local supply. Import volumes dropped from 46.38 million litres in October 2024 to 36.39 million litres in November and 38.90 million litres in December.

By January 2025, import figures had fallen further to 24.15 million litres, and though there were slight fluctuations in subsequent months – 26.79 million litres in February, 25.19 million litres in March, and 23.73 million litres in April – imports rebounded temporarily to 37.37 million litres in May.

Thereafter, volumes declined again, with 28.54 million litres imported in June, 35.07 million litres in July, 20.66 million litres in August, 19.26 million litres in September, and a year-low of 15.11 million litres as of October 10, 2025.

In contrast, domestic refining output showed notable improvement within the same period, rising from 9.62 million litres in October 2024 to 19.36 million litres in November and 13.13 million litres in December.

The upward trend continued into 2025, with local supply climbing to 22.66 million litres in January and 22.42 million litres in February and maintaining over 20 million litres in both March (20.65 million litres) and April (20.35 million litres).

Though there were minor dips to 17.85 million litres in May, 17.82 million litres in June, and 16.50 million litres in July, output surged again to 21.19 million litres in August before stabilising at 18.93 million litres in October 2025.

The figures reflect a gradual but significant shift in Nigeria’s fuel supply structure, with local refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, steadily closing the gap on imports within just one year of operation.

The document further showed that total petrol supply averaged 46.6 million litres per day, comprising 29.5 million litres from imports and about 17.1 million litres from local production.

The reduction in petrol imports has also eased pressure on Nigeria’s foreign reserves, as the country spends less on importing refined products. Previously, importers required billions of dollars monthly to settle letters of credit and cover freight and insurance costs.

However, the report noted fluctuations in overall supply, with volumes dipping from 55.21 million litres in May 2025 to 34.04 million litres in October 2025, a sign that logistical constraints and periodic maintenance still affect consistent nationwide distribution.

Oil and gas analysts say the improvement coincides with the first full year of operations of the Dangote Refinery, which began large-scale production earlier in 2025 and now contributes between 15 and 20 million litres of PMS daily to the domestic market.

Since its commissioning in May 2023 and subsequent ramp-up through 2024, the Dangote Refinery has been under global scrutiny as the flagship of Nigeria’s industrial revival agenda.

In its first year of sustained operation, the refinery’s growing output has reshaped Nigeria’s fuel supply structure, reduced foreign exchange exposure, and rekindled confidence in local refining after decades of failed turnarounds at the government-owned Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries.

Commenting, the Chief Executive Officer of Petroleum.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, said that Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has recorded remarkable progress in the past year, with the Dangote Refinery now supplying about 40 per cent of the country’s daily petrol consumption.

Speaking in reaction to new supply data released by the NMDPRA, the analyst said the progress underscores the growing impact of local refineries on Nigeria’s energy security.

He, however, stressed that the Dangote Refinery and other local refiners require uninterrupted access to crude oil in naira to scale up production and reduce pump prices nationwide.

“The fact that import remains the country’s major source of refined products shows that there are still unresolved issues. In the last year, domestic supply championed by Dangote Refinery has made tremendous progress with about 40 per cent of our daily consumption. Dangote Refinery needs 100 per cent access to crude in naira to increase domestic supply and drive down prices at the pump,” he said.

He lamented that despite being Africa’s biggest crude oil producer and host to the continent’s largest refinery, Nigeria still imports about 60 per cent of its daily petrol needs, a situation he described as inconsistent with the country’s energy potential.

The Petroleum.ng chief urged the Federal Government and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to strengthen policies that guarantee local refineries full access to domestic crude supply.

“Nigeria, the biggest producer of crude in Africa with the biggest refinery in Africa, should not be importing about 60% of its daily fuel consumption; thus, our pump prices should be amongst the lowest in the world.

The FG, through NUPRC, should continue to formulate frameworks that would allow local refiners access to crude 100 per cent. For me, that’s the recipe for availability and affordability,” he added.

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