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NBS announces 4.23% economic growth, labour disagrees

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Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product rose by 4.23 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest figures released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The performance was stronger than the 3.48 per cent growth recorded in the same period of 2024, showing that the economy gained momentum despite persistent structural challenges. The bureau explained that the quarterly estimates followed the rebasing of GDP using 2019 as the base year, allowing comparisons to track the pace of expansion across sectors.

The report read, “Following the rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product using 2019 as the base year, previous quarterly GDP estimates were benchmarked to the rebased annual estimates to align the old series with the new rebased estimates.

“This procedure provided a new quarterly GDP series, which is compared to the 2025 second quarter estimates. Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.23 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the second quarter of 2025.

This growth rate is higher than the 3.48 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2024.”

But senior officials of the Nigeria Labour Congress challenged the credibility of the figures, arguing that they failed to capture the worsening conditions faced by workers and households.

“When we talk about GDP growth, the key question is how it impacts the lives of the people.

If the figure is in doubt, or if it does not translate into better living conditions, then it is meaningless. That is what we call growth without development,” an NLC official, who spoke to one of our correspondents in confidence due to lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, stated.

The official added, “Right now, many people are being manipulated because of upcoming elections. The GDP figures being quoted are based on the 2019 rebasing. But when statistics do not reflect realities on the ground, they are useless to the citizenry. Any economic indicator that fails to capture reality loses credibility.”

The President of the Trade Union Congress, Festus Osifo, did not respond to a request for comment.

Another senior NLC official took aim at Nigeria’s reported unemployment data, which put the jobless rate at about four per cent. “That is a falsehood, a construct of neoliberalism to mask the impact of failed policies being pushed on developing countries,” the official said. “We know unemployment is far higher than four per cent. So as long as these statistics fail to reflect reality, they are useless for economic planning.”

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The union leader added, “Do you see the 4.23 per cent GDP growth in your life? I don’t. Conditions are worsening, workers are suffering, yet officials claim the economy is growing. The economy is not growing. An economy must be managed for the people. When it is not, politicians invent stories to justify their claims, and this is one of them.”

Meanwhile, the NBS report stated that the value of the economy stood at N100.73tn in nominal terms, up from N84.48tn in the second quarter of 2024, representing a 19.23 per cent increase. Much of the growth came from the oil sector, which rebounded on the back of higher crude output.

Average daily production climbed to 1.68 million barrels per day, compared with 1.41 million barrels per day in the same quarter of 2024 and 1.62 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025. This lifted the oil sector’s real growth to 20.46 per cent, a sharp turnaround from the 1.87 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter.

Its contribution to the overall economy rose to 4.05 per cent, up from 3.51 per cent a year earlier. Mining and quarrying, which includes crude petroleum, coal, and other minerals, also posted strong numbers, expanding by 20.86 per cent in real terms, with quarrying up by 50.41 per cent and coal mining higher by 32.59 per cent.

Still, the non-oil economy maintained its dominance, accounting for 95.95 per cent of total output. It grew by 3.64 per cent in real terms, compared with 3.26 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2024 and 3.19 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.

The expansion was driven by agriculture, telecommunications, real estate, finance, trade, construction, and energy-related services. Agriculture grew by 2.82 per cent, a recovery from the marginal 0.07 per cent reported in the first quarter, though its share of the economy slipped to 26.17 per cent from 26.53 per cent a year earlier.

Industry recorded growth of 7.45 per cent, more than double the 3.72 per cent growth posted in the same period last year. Manufacturing, however, slowed to 1.60 per cent and its share of GDP dropped to 7.81 per cent.

Construction expanded by 5.27 per cent but contracted sharply on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The services sector grew by 3.94 per cent, up from 3.83 per cent in the same quarter of 2024.

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Trade contributed 18.28 per cent to the economy, but growth slowed to 1.29 per cent from 1.82 per cent a year ago. Information and communication rose by 6.61 per cent, contributing 11.18 per cent to GDP, while finance and insurance surged by 16.13 per cent, raising its share to 3.23 per cent.

Transportation and storage grew by 22.09 per cent, higher than the 0.56 per cent contribution recorded in the previous year. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply also expanded by 11.47 per cent, while water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation grew by 10.60 per cent.

Together, they boosted the utilities subsector’s contribution to the wider economy. The latest figures confirm that while oil provided a major lift to overall growth in the second quarter, the non-oil sector continues to anchor the economy.

Earlier in July 2025, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, stated that Nigeria needs to achieve at least a seven per cent annual economic growth to significantly improve the lives of its poorest and most vulnerable citizens.

Referring to the country’s GDP, the minister said, “To really help the poorest and most vulnerable, we need to be doing around seven per cent per annum.” In May 2025, Edun charged top management staff of the Federal Ministry of Finance to drive reforms that will accelerate Nigeria’s GDP growth to seven per cent per annum in line with the Renewed Hope Agenda of the Tinubu administration.

Economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said Nigeria’s economy is on the path of recovery following the latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

“The GDP numbers point to the fact that the economy is on a recovery path. You can see that there’s an improvement in the GDP figures from what we had in Q1. In Q1, we had a 3.13 per cent GDP. In Q2, we have a 4.23 per cent GDP growth. This is quite remarkable, and it shows that quite a number of the policies of governments are actually on course,” he said.

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OPS reacts

Members of the organised private sector urged the Federal Government to prioritise growth in the real sector of the economy, despite Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product recording a 4.23 per cent increase in the second quarter of 2025.

They expressed reservations about the implications of these figures in the real-time finances of the consuming public. In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, private sector operators warned that the figures mask underlying weaknesses in critical areas.

The President of the Association of Small Business Owners, Dr Femi Egbesola, cautioned that macroeconomic growth was not translating into tangible benefits for households and businesses.

Egbesola stated, “GDP is growing and it has been stable for some time now, and it is a sign of hope. However, as much as we have macroeconomic growth, I think it is important to see it reflected in businesses, in households, and in the individual lives of citizens. That is not happening at the moment.”

He described the state of the real sector, especially manufacturing, as a “red flag,” warning that the collapse of smaller businesses could worsen hardship.

He added, “That’s supposed to be the engine that drives the economy. When the manufacturing sector of any economy is challenged, it’s a red flag. If it continues like this, eventually you will see growth in larger corporations, or deaths in small businesses, and suffering in households.”

Egbesola also pointed out that trade had shrunk in the latest report, citing reduced consumer purchasing power and persistent trade barriers as key challenges. He stressed that “government should not just look at the books and become happy and complacent by increasing GDP, but begin to look inward on how they can help average Nigerians and average businesses.”

The National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, said real sector growth remained the critical yardstick for measuring economic progress.

Kuti-George said, “The growth in GDP is a positive development. However, it would have been better if it were in the real sector. Growth in services is very welcome, but what they call real growth is actually in the real sector. So, if that is not growing, more attention should be given to it.”

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NNPC serviced $3bn loan with N991bn crude – Report

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December 6, 2025

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has serviced part of its $3bn forward-sale loan from the African Export-Import Bank with crude oil worth N991bn in 2024, according to its 2024 financial statement report. The repayment was tied to Project Gazelle, a forward crude oil supply agreement signed in 2023.

On August 17, 2023, The PUNCH reported that the NNPC announced it had secured a $3.3bn emergency loan to repay crude oil obligations from Afreximbank. It explained that the loan would be used by the oil company to support the Federal Government in stabilising Nigeria’s exchange rate.

“The NNPC Ltd. and AFREXIM bank have jointly signed a commitment letter and Termsheet for an emergency $3bn crude oil repayment loan,” NNPC said in a statement.

“The signing, which took place today at the bank’s headquarters in Cairo, Egypt, will provide some immediate disbursement that will enable the NNPC Ltd. to support the Federal Government in its ongoing fiscal and monetary policy reforms aimed at stabilising the exchange rate market,” it added.

Under the deal, NNPC committed to deliver 90,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Production Sharing Contract assets to back a funding facility. According to the 2023 financial statement, a drawdown of $2.25bn had already been achieved by 31st December 2023, with principal repayment scheduled to begin in June 2024.

The funding carried an interest rate of 3-month LIBOR plus 6.5 per cent, with a 6 per cent margin and 0.5 per cent liquidity premium.

According to the 2024 financial statement, the drawdown on the facility had reached N4.9tn out of a total available N5.1tn, while N991bn worth of crude oil had been lifted in repayment, leaving an outstanding balance of N3.8tn at the end of 2024.

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The report read, “In December 2023, NNPC Limited entered into a forward sale agreement with Project Gazelle Funding Limited to supply 90,000 bbl. of crude oil per day from Production Sharing Contract Assets for the settlement of a 5-year N2.7tn funding.

“The funding was utilised by the company to finance an advance payment of future taxes and royalty obligations due to the federation on PSC assets managed by the Company on behalf of the Federation.

“As at 31st December 2024, a drawdown of N4.9tn has been achieved from the initial facility of N5.1tn. The interest rate for the facility is 3-month SOFA plus 6.5 per cent while the margin and Liquidity Premium of 0.5 per cent respectively. A total value of Crude Oil worth N991bn has been lifted with a balance of N3.8tn as at 31st December 2024.”

The repayment was made between June and December 2024. However, NNPC did not disclose the identity of the offtakers or exact delivery volumes fulfilled in 2024.

The Project Gazelle arrangement has become one of NNPC’s most significant forward-sale financing vehicles, following a trend of oil-backed loans designed to shore up government revenues, refinance legacy debts, and meet budgetary obligations amid limited fiscal buffers.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the NNPC Ltd is burdened with crude-backed loan obligations estimated at N8.07tn.

The liabilities stretch across multiple forward-sale and project-financing arrangements that are expected to be serviced through substantial crude oil and gas deliveries. The commitments have become a major pillar of NNPCL’s funding structure following years of fiscal pressure, volatile crude production, and declining upstream investment.

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Several of the facilities were used to refinance older debts, fund refinery rehabilitation, support cash flow, and meet government revenue obligations.

When assessed together, the company’s major crude-for-loan facilities—Eagle Export Funding (21,000 bpd), Project Yield (67,000 bpd), Project Leopard (35,000 bpd), and Project Gazelle (90,000 bpd)—represent a combined commitment of 213,000 barrels per day, in addition to separate gas-delivery obligations under the NLNG arrangement.

The volume equates to a sizeable share of Nigeria’s daily crude output, underscoring the long-term implications of these arrangements for government revenue, export allocation, and operational flexibility.

The PUNCH also reported that Nigeria’s gross profit from crude oil and gas sales plunged by N824.66bn in 2024 despite a rebound in oil production, according to figures from the Budget Implementation Report for the fourth quarter of 2024 released by the Budget Office of the Federation.

Data from the report revealed that gross profit from crude and gas sales fell to N1.08tn during the year, from N1.90tn in 2023, representing a 43.32 per cent decline.

The Chief Executive Officer of AHA Strategies and oil and gas expert, Mr Ademola Adigun, earlier linked Nigeria’s declining oil earnings to opaque crude-for-cash agreements and undisclosed loan repayments that have tied up part of the country’s crude output.

He said some of the government’s oil barrels were already committed to debt settlements and forward-sale contracts, reducing the actual volume that brought fresh revenue into the Federation Account.

Adigun said, “Some of our crude is already tied up in loan agreements. The problem is that Nigeria doesn’t know the full details of these transactions because there’s little transparency around them.”

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He explained that several crude-backed projects, such as Project Gazelle, were carried out without proper public disclosure or parliamentary scrutiny.

He added that the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative should strengthen its audits to determine how much of the country’s crude is being used for debt repayment or swap transactions.

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Yuletide: Dangote assures Nigerians of stable fuel supply

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December 6, 2025

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Chairman of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, on Friday said Nigerians will no longer experience fuel queues during the Christmas and New Year seasons.

Briefing State House correspondents after meeting with President Bola Tinubu at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja, Dangote said his refinery has formally notified the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority of its readiness to deliver 50 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily, far above national consumption.

He said, “Historically, Nigeria has battled fuel queues since 1972. For the first time, we are eliminating those queues, not through imports but by producing locally.

“Even when we were servicing the refinery, there were no queues. I can assure you that queues are now history.”

Dangote stated that the refinery will soon produce surplus volumes, adding that by February, it will supply 15–20 million litres more than Nigeria needs.

This, he argued, will allow exports to neighbouring countries, reducing the incidence of fuel scarcity across West Africa.

The industrialist also disclosed that domestic manufacturers, especially in the plastics industry, will now enjoy reliable access to locally produced feedstock, ending years of reliance on imports estimated at $400m annually.

Dangote also announced an expansion programme that will raise refinery capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028, surpassing India’s Reliance refinery, the world’s largest, at 1.25 million barrels per day.

“We have already signed the necessary agreements.

“Construction piling begins before the end of January, and we will deliver on schedule,” he announced.

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He revealed plans to scale up the company’s urea production to 12 million tonnes annually, positioning Nigeria to overtake Russia and Qatar as the world’s leading producer.

“Our goal is to use our fertilizer company to supply the entire African continent,” Dangote said.

Dangote attributed the recent drop in petrol and diesel prices to increased competition and reduced smuggling.

“Prices are going down because we must compete with imports.

“Luckily, smuggling has dropped significantly, though not completely,” he explained.

He noted that the refinery business is a long-term national investment, saying, “We’re not here to recover $20 billion overnight.

“The legacy I want to leave is that whatever Nigerians need, fuel, fertiliser, power, we will be part of delivering it.”

Dangote further highlighted logistics constraints affecting Nigeria’s solid minerals sector, particularly the congestion of major ports.

“Apapa is full. Tin Can is full. Lekki is mainly for containers.

“You cannot export coal or copper if you have nowhere to ship from,” he noted.

To curb this, he explained that the Group is developing what would become West Africa’s largest deep-sea port at Olokola, expected to be completed in two to two-and-a-half years.

The Kano-born businessman expressed support for the Tinubu administration’s naira-for-crude initiative, describing it as a patriotic move to strengthen the economy, although he acknowledged pushback from international oil companies.

According to him, “It’s a teething problem, but it will be resolved, either through legislation or administrative action.”

On concerns about global competition, Dangote maintained that the refinery will thrive.

He said, “What we want is to make Nigeria the refining hub of Africa. All African countries import fuel. We want what we consume to be produced here.”

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He also endorsed the government’s Nigeria-first industrial policy and urged wealthy Nigerians to channel resources into productive investment rather than luxury spending.

“If you have money for a private jet, invest in industries and create jobs,” he stated, adding that domestic investors must drive industrialisation to attract foreign capital.

Dangote acknowledged past hurdles, policy instability, smuggling, and factory closures, but expressed optimism that the country is now on a stable path toward sustainable industrial growth.

“Domestic investors must lead the way. Once they do, foreign investors will follow.

“Nobody advertises a good restaurant; when the food is good, word spreads,” he explained.

He described his meeting with President Tinubu as a routine consultation on the economy and business environment, noting that it was “a very fruitful meeting.”

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OPay secures double honours at Tech Innovation Awards

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2 days ago

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December 5, 2025

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Nigeria’s premier financial technology company, OPay, has been named Fintech Company of the Year and Best Fintech in Cybersecurity at the ninth Tech Innovation Awards.

In a statement on Thursday, OPay said the award was in recognition of its innovation and security leadership.

The awards ceremony, held on 29 November 2025, in Lagos, convened top organisations and industry leaders who shape the country’s digital landscape.

Speaking after receiving the honours, Chief Compliance Officer at OPay, Chukwudinma Okafor, said, “These awards are a testament to our relentless pursuit of excellence in fintech and our unwavering commitment to user security. Every innovation we introduce, from secure payments to advanced compliance measures, is designed to give millions of Nigerians the confidence to transact safely. This recognition belongs as much to our dedicated team as it does to the users who inspire us to continually raise the bar for excellence in fintech and cybersecurity.”

Highlighting OPay’s proactive approach to security, Chief Commercial Officer Elizabeth Wang said, “We are incredibly proud to receive both Fintech Company of the Year and Best Fintech in Cybersecurity at the 9th Tech Innovation Awards, two recognitions that highlight our dedication to security and user protection. At OPay, we believe that equipping users with the knowledge and advanced tools is essential to building trust and promoting financial inclusion. This was demonstrated through our OPay Security Vote Campaign some months ago, a dynamic social media initiative that educated users on our in-app security features. The campaign has helped millions of Nigerians understand how to protect their accounts and transact safely, reinforcing that security is central to everything we do. Hence, these awards recognise not only our leadership in fintech but also our commitment to keeping every transaction secure and our customers confident in their financial journey.”

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OPay was established in 2018 as a leading financial institution in Nigeria with the mission to make financial services more inclusive through technology. The company offers a wide range of payment services, including money transfer, bill payment, card service, airtime and data purchase, and merchant payments, among others. Renowned for its fast and reliable network and strong security features that protect customers’ funds, OPay is licensed by the Central Bank of Nigeria and insured by the Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation with the same insurance coverage as commercial banks.

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