Mr President, Nigerians have walked with you through a season of fire. They have endured subsidy removal, foreign exchange shocks, inflation that eats wages before payday, and reforms that have stretched household budgets to their breaking point. They did so because you asked for time — time to rebuild, to reform, to restore.

Now, after this difficult year of sacrifice, the government has confirmed that it will introduce a 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel. Mr President, this decision risks turning faith into fatigue. It is not reform, it is relapse — and it could undo the fragile trust Nigerians have placed in your leadership.

According to the leaked memorandum from the State House dated October 10, 2025, the new tariff is framed as a “market-responsive import framework” meant to “safeguard local refining capacity and stabilise the downstream market”. But Nigerians are not fooled by the language of protection when its result is punishment.

This tariff, applied to the cost, insurance, and freight value of imported fuel, will raise the landing cost of petrol by roughly N150–N175 per litre. That means the average pump price could surge toward N970 or more per litre, a direct hit to every household, every transport operator, every food vendor, every generator owner.

This policy claims to “protect local refineries”, but the reality is different: it protects one refinery, the Dangote Refinery, at the expense of an entire nation. The refinery, which currently supplies only about 22 million litres daily, cannot meet Nigeria’s 50 million-litre daily consumption. So, the rest will still come from imports — but now, imports that must bear a punitive 15 per cent tax, ensuring Dangote’s petrol looks cheaper, even when it isn’t.

That is not protectionism; it is manipulation dressed as policy.

Inside that closed circle lies the new “fuel cabal”, a collection of powerful businessmen who have aligned themselves with the refinery to dictate who lifts petrol, who gets access, and at what price. The market, which deregulation was meant to free, is now being redesigned for control.

We are told this tariff will “stabilise the market.” But, as history teaches us, monopolies do not stabilise; they suffocate. In cement, sugar, and now fuel, the pattern remains the same: establish dominance, then block rivals through state-backed regulations. What we are witnessing is not industrial policy — it is industrial capture.

Every naira added to fuel prices ripples across the economy. Transport fares rise by 20–30 per cent. Food prices follow. Inflation deepens. The middle class shrinks further. The poor lose what little dignity inflation has not already taken. And all this, in the name of protecting an investor who built a “state-of-the-art” refinery but cannot yet supply half the country’s needs.

Economic policy is not a courtroom for the powerful to plead for privilege. It is a covenant between the government and the people. And that covenant is broken when policy tilts toward a single enterprise.

When global oil markets faced deregulation, from the United States to South Korea, competition — not tariffs — built resilience. Local refiners had to innovate, not lobby for protection. In the 1980s, American refiners survived the global glut not because of tariffs, but because the market forced them to be efficient, invest, and adapt. South Korea’s chaebols, initially sheltered, became efficient only after the state opened competition and removed protectionist crutches.

If a refinery built with global expertise and billions in investment cannot compete without government shields, then what is it offering Nigerians? The same Nigerians who have already indirectly funded infrastructure through public concessions, waivers, and policy privileges now face a second tax — at the pump.

The psychological compact between citizens and the state depends on fairness. When people believe that one man or one company is being favoured at their expense, they stop seeing reform as progress. They see it as betrayal.

Mr President, economic theory often hides its human cost. But behind every fuel price increase lies a family’s rationed meal, a trader’s collapsed margin, a farmer’s unaffordable transport. The sociology of hardship is cumulative — people can absorb one reform, perhaps two, but a third breaks faith.

Nigerians are patient, but patience is not infinite. Inflation, currency devaluation, and insecurity already weigh heavily. A 15 per cent tariff on fuel is not a correction — it is cruelty wearing the mask of economic reform.

Those who drafted this proposal insist the tariff is “not revenue-driven” but “corrective.” Yet every indicator shows that the correction benefits one player. The refinery’s own petrol, as of October 20, lands at N929.72 per litre — more expensive than the N802.44 landing cost of imported petrol.

If local refining is truly efficient, why must it be shielded from competition? Why must the public pay a premium to protect inefficiency? The promise of local refining was cheaper fuel, not controlled pricing.

Even more troubling, reports confirm that the Dangote Refinery itself has imported cargoes of petrol in recent weeks, claiming they were “blending components”. If the nation’s premier refinery must import finished products, how then can it claim protection from import competition? Is it a refinery, a blender, or both?

The contradictions are too loud to ignore.

Mr President, Nigerians are not asking for perfection. They are asking for fairness. They are asking that your reform legacy not be hijacked by those who trade influence for policy.

You have often spoken of restoring Nigeria’s credibility in the eyes of investors, citizens, and the global community. That credibility depends not on who we protect, but on what we protect — fairness, transparency, and competition.

You fought cabals before; Nigerians remember. They trusted that you would never allow another to rise under your watch, this time cloaked in refinery smoke. The test is here again.

Viable alternatives exist to protect both the refinery and the community: Promote competition instead of protection by permitting multiple refiners, importers, and marketers to operate simultaneously. Increase transparency by making the cost structures and local refiners’ production capacities publicly accessible. Implement a phased approach, applying tariffs only when domestic supply exceeds dependency on imports. Conduct independent assessments, empowering the FCCPC and NMDPRA to verify if the refinery’s pricing aligns with global standards.

Mr President, every leader is tested by the counsel he keeps. Those urging this tariff are not protecting your legacy; they are protecting their leverage. They are not serving Nigeria; they are serving themselves.

If this tariff goes forward, it will not only raise prices but also fuel resentment. It will feed the belief that the government exists to protect the powerful, not the people.

You still have the chance to prove otherwise. The Nigeria you promised, open, competitive, compassionate, begins not with the policies we announce, but with the ones we refuse to endorse when they betray the people’s trust.

Respectfully submitted,

• Matthew, a policy and governance analyst, writes from Abuja

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria has urged the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited to fast-track the reopening of the country’s refineries before December to avert a possible fuel scarcity and price hike during the festive season.

The association made the call while commending President Bola Tinubu’s approval of a 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel, saying the move could stimulate local refining and strengthen the downstream oil market if properly managed.

The National President of PETROAN, Dr Billy Harry, issued the appeal in Port Harcourt during a courtesy visit to the Pro-Chancellor and Chairman of the Governing Council of the Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Dr Chinyere Igwe.

Harry described the policy as a bold step toward protecting domestic refineries, stabilising the market, and promoting energy security.

He, however, warned that if the measure was poorly implemented, it could cripple fuel importation and render many importers jobless, a situation he said would lead to fuel scarcity.

“NNPC must complete its partnership agreements quickly and start production at Nigeria’s refineries before December to avert any form of fuel scarcity or price hike during the Yuletide season,” he said.

The Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries have been dormant for years despite efforts to revive them.

But the NNPC Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, has expressed strong optimism that the facilities would work again, even after major stakeholders advised that the plants be sold off.

Speaking on the new tariff, Harry cautioned that failure to enforce fair regulation could wipe out importers who have long served as a check on profiteering.

“Importers of petroleum products, which were a price-check mechanism against profiteering, will be out of business if not properly managed. We call on regulatory agencies, especially the NMDPRA, to be on red alert against monopoly. If local refineries are not properly regulated, monopoly could harm the market,” he said in a statement on Friday.

The PETROAN president said while the tariff would boost local refining capacity and promote energy security, the government must ensure a level playing field for all operators.

He urged fuel importers to look inwards and begin to patronise local refineries rather than depend solely on foreign supplies.

Harry also called on the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited to make crude oil available to domestic refineries, warning that the success of the new policy depends on adequate feedstock supply.

He disclosed that PETROAN would collaborate with the Ignatius Ajuru University of Education to expose students to practical aspects of petroleum marketing and energy management. The group, he said, would accept students for industrial training and excursions to filling stations, depots and refineries.

The PUNCH reported earlier that the Federal Government’s decision to impose a 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel is part of efforts to encourage local refining.

Oil marketers had warned that the measure could push petrol prices above N1,000 per litre if local refineries fail to supply enough fuel into the local market.

According to The PUNCH, industry operators cautioned that unless Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries and private facilities such as Dangote Refinery come fully on stream, the duty could lead to fresh supply gaps and higher pump prices nationwide.

Harry maintained that despite potential short-term challenges, the long-term benefits of the policy, such as increased local refining, job creation, a stronger naira and improved energy security, outweigh its disadvantages.

“We believe this policy will ultimately boost the local economy and attract investors. But it must be implemented carefully to avoid hardship,” the PETROAN president said.

The association reiterated its support for the Tinubu administration’s reforms but urged close supervision to ensure the 15 per cent tariff strengthens, rather than destabilises, Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

“This policy will boost local refining, promote economic growth, create more job opportunities, and create a level playing field for domestic refineries. The benefits of this policy include increased local refining capacity, reduced dependence on imported fuel, improved price stability, enhanced energy security, a boost to the local economy, benefits to foreign reserves, benefits to the naira gaining strength, and attracting investors.

“The potential disadvantages include potential price increases, loss of jobs on the side of importing firms, and short-term challenges. The benefits of this policy will outweigh the potential disadvantages. Regulatory agencies such as the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority should be on red alert against monopoly. If local refineries are not properly regulated, it could lead to a monopoly that might harm the market,” he was quoted.

Meanwhile, the Presidency on Friday confirmed that the approved 15 per cent import tariff on petrol and diesel, describing the policy as a strategic step to stimulate local refining and strengthen Nigeria’s energy independence.

According to a statement by the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communications, Sunday Dare, on his official X handle on Friday, the new policy is “a bridge, not a burden,” aimed at transforming Nigeria’s petroleum landscape and securing long-term economic stability.

He described the policy as a strategic measure to end Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and accelerate the country’s path to energy self-sufficiency.

“It’s no longer news that President Tinubu has approved a 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel, a bold and strategic move aimed at reshaping Nigeria’s energy landscape,” Dare wrote.

He explained that for years, Nigeria had depended heavily on imported fuel despite being one of the world’s leading crude oil producers, a situation that drained foreign exchange, hindered job creation, and stifled local refining investments.

“For years, the nation has depended heavily on imported fuel despite being a leading crude oil producer, draining foreign exchange and exporting jobs that should have been created at home. This new policy is designed to reverse that trend by encouraging local refining, boosting domestic capacity, and ensuring that Nigeria’s oil wealth translates directly into national prosperity,” the statement added.

Dare said the policy seeks to make imported products less competitive while tilting the market in favour of locally refined fuel from the Dangote Refinery, Port Harcourt Refinery, and modular plants under construction across the country.

“By making imported fuel less competitive, the government is tilting the market in favour of local refineries such as Dangote and other modular plants, laying the groundwork for a self-sustaining and resilient energy sector,” he stated.

He added that as domestic refining ramps up, supply will strengthen, and pump prices are expected to stabilise over time. The policy, according to him, will also stimulate industrial activity, create jobs, and attract fresh investments into the downstream petroleum value chain.

“As local refining ramps up and supply strengthens, prices are expected to moderate while jobs, investment, and industrial activity expand. This policy is therefore not a burden, but a bridge, from dependence to independence, from vulnerability to strength,” Dare said.

The presidential aide’s comment marks a departure from the position of petroleum marketers, who have warned that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol, could rise above N1,000 per litre following President Tinubu’s approval of a 15 per cent ad-valorem import tariff on fuel imports.

The new policy, which takes effect after a 30-day transition period expected to end on 21 November 2025, is part of the government’s strategy to protect local refiners and reduce the influx of cheaper imported products that threaten domestic refining investments.

PUNCH Online reports that the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority indicate that petrol imports still accounted for about 69 per cent of the country’s total fuel demand over the 15 months between August 2024 and 10 October 2025.

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The Presidency has said that recent media reports about alleged coup plots are damaging the country’s economy and discouraging foreign investment.

Speaking on Arise News’ Prime Time programme on Thursday evening, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, argued that unverified reports about national security could extinguish investor confidence and harm Nigeria’s image abroad.

“When a country is looking for investment and the media are shouting ‘coup attempt,’ it scares investors away.

“Stories like that can destroy the country’s reputation and economy. We need to wait for facts, evidence, not rumours,” Onanuga said.

He called for restraint, urging the media and the public to allow official investigations to conclude before publishing sensitive stories.

According to him, while the military had confirmed an ongoing investigation into some arrests, no credible evidence had yet been established linking them to a coup attempt.

He argued that leaping to conclusions before official confirmation portends grave national consequences.

Onanuga also faulted what he described as a growing appetite for sensationalism and online traffic, noting that not every piece of information is “fit to print.”

“Some media outlets ran with the story for clicks and attention. But as patriotic Nigerians, we must know that what we report has implications for our economy and stability,” he said.

He added that the government was aware of citizens’ growing distrust of official statements but insisted that such skepticism did not justify publishing unverified claims.

“It’s true people don’t always trust government, that happens everywhere in the world. But the media also have a social responsibility to be cautious and wait for facts,” he said.

Onanuga’s comments come barely two weeks after an October 19 report by Sahara Reporters alleging that some officers were plotting to overthrow the government, a claim later dismissed by the Defence Headquarters.

The Director of Defence Information, Brig. Gen. Tukur Gusau, said the alleged arrests linked to a coup were “issues of indiscipline” within the ranks, describing the report as “intended to cause unnecessary tension and distrust among the populace.”

The Defence Headquarters urged the public to disregard rumours of political motives, reiterating that Nigeria’s military remains loyal to the constitution and committed to democracy.

The controversy comes amid heightened anxiety following a wave of coups in West Africa, including Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali where juntas have toppled elected governments.

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