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Big money, small impact: Governors face fire over N9tn FAAC windfall

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Despite receiving an estimated N9tn in Federation Account Allocation Committee inflows in 2025, state governors are facing mounting criticism from labour unions, civil society groups and opposition parties over what many describe as a widening gap between soaring revenues and limited improvements in citizens’ welfare.

FAAC allocations to states surged by over N2tn in one year, according to an analysis of Federation Account disbursement data published by the National Bureau of Statistics and collated by The PUNCH, highlighting the scale of the revenue windfall that flowed to subnational governments in 2025 amid higher federation inflows.

The sharp rise has triggered criticism from organised labour and opposition political parties, with the Nigeria Labour Congress warning that higher allocations have failed to deliver meaningful improvements in citizens’ welfare due to weak governance, misplaced priorities, and corruption at the state level.

Civil society organisations have also faulted state governments, accusing them of mismanaging the inflows and failing to translate increased revenues into visible development outcomes, while calling for stronger accountability and oversight.

Economists, meanwhile, say the surge has expanded states’ fiscal space but caution that heavy dependence on federally shared revenue and poor revenue management continue to undermine sustainable development at the subnational level.

The Federation Account disbursement data show that state governments received a total of N7.315tn from the Federation Account Allocation Committee in 2025, compared with N5.186tn in 2024. The year-on-year increase of roughly N2.13tn represents a jump of about 41 per cent in direct FAAC allocations to states.

When the constitutionally mandated 13 per cent derivation revenue is added, total inflows attributable to states climbed to N8.934tn (about N9tn) in 2025, up from N6.533tn in 2024, a rise of N2.4tn or 36.74 per cent.

This surge came against the backdrop of a sharp expansion in total FAAC distributions. Aggregate allocations to the three tiers of government, including derivation, rose from N15.259tn in 2024 to N21.897tn in 2025.

States therefore captured a substantial share of the overall increase, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of total federation revenues. Without the 13 per cent derivation component, states’ N7.315tn allocation in 2025 accounted for about 33.4 per cent of the N21.897tn total FAAC disbursement for the year, compared with roughly 34.0 per cent in 2024.

When derivation revenue is included, total state-linked receipts of N8.934tn represented about 40.8 per cent of total FAAC disbursements in 2025, down from around 42.8 per cent in 2024, indicating that while inflows grew in nominal terms, their relative share declined as allocations to all tiers expanded.

A closer look at monthly disbursements shows that state allocations improved steadily throughout 2025. States received N498.50bn in January, well above the N396.69bn recorded in January 2024.

Monthly allocations continued to trend higher, peaking at N727.17bn in October before easing to N601.73bn in December. By contrast, only two months in 2024 recorded allocations above N500bn, with the highest monthly figure being N549.79bn in December.

By the end of June 2025, states had already received over N3.32tn, compared with about N2.33tn in the first half of 2024, easing short-term liquidity pressures, particularly for states with heavy wage bills and debt service obligations.

Derivation revenue also played a critical role. In 2025, derivation payments rose to N1.619tn from N1.347tn in 2024, an increase of about N272bn or just over 20 per cent. Monthly derivation inflows were especially strong in September 2025, when oil-producing states shared N183.01bn, compared with N99.47bn in September 2024.

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Despite the surge, states did not disproportionately outpace other tiers. Federal Government allocations rose from N4.951tn in 2024 to N7.613tn in 2025, while local government allocations increased from N3.774tn to N5.351tn.

Nevertheless, the impact on states is particularly significant given their responsibility for delivering education, healthcare, and infrastructure. The additional N2.4tn received in 2025 alone is equivalent to nearly half of what states received from FAAC in total in 2024.

The 10th edition of the BudgIT State of States Report, titled ‘A Decade of Subnational Fiscal Analysis: Growth, Decline and Middling Performance’, revealed that over 30 states rely heavily on FAAC allocations.

An executive of BudgIT said on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme, “At least thirty states, excluding Lagos, Ogun, and Enugu, relied on FAAC for more than sixty per cent of their recurrent revenue. Lagos remains an outlier, but Ogun and Enugu also seem to be performing quite well.

“In total, 31 states depended on FAAC for at least 80 per cent of their current revenue, which shows just how challenging the fiscal situation has become for many of them.

“For example, Lagos’s FAAC allocation rose from N4.24bn to N11.38bn, a massive increase that highlights how significant federation account transfers have become within a single fiscal year. Still, credit should go to the states that recorded strong year-on-year growth, as well as those that grew consistently over the ten-year period we reviewed.”

The report added that 29 states relied on FAAC receipts for at least half of their total revenue, 28 relied on it for at least 55 per cent, and 21 relied on it for over 70 per cent.

The BudgIT executives expressed concern that rising FAAC inflows were discouraging states from expanding internally generated revenue. This is “concerning because the more FAAC money states receive, the less incentive some of them have to develop their own internal revenue sources”.

They noted that “the proportion of IGR within total recurrent revenue declined slightly from 25.27 per cent in 2023 to 20.27 per cent in 2024, indicating continued dependence on federal transfers”.

The Managing Director of Optimus by Afrinvest, Dr Ayodeji Ebo, said, “These revenues are volatile and largely outside state control, making budgets vulnerable to oil price shocks. Over time, this approach also discourages ingenuity, as states become dependent on external inflows rather than building durable local revenue sources.”

A development economist and Chief Executive Officer of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, said subnational governments are creating challenges for the federation through how they manage FAAC allocations.

He suggested “counterpart funding,” where states that increase their IGR receive proportional benefits, warning that without incentives, states would continue to rely heavily on Abuja. Ilias said, “While FAAC allocations are at unprecedented levels, they are not necessarily translating into improved living standards.”

NLC speaks

The country’s biggest labour union said rising FAAC allocations have failed to deliver meaningful benefits to citizens, blaming weak governance, misplaced priorities, and persistent corruption at the state level.

“Very few states are doing well in terms of how they deploy what they receive,” Assistant Secretary-General of the NLC, Onyeka Christopher, told The PUNCH. “The idea behind federal allocations is to bring the government closer to the grassroots, but unfortunately, in many states, this has not translated into the desired results for well-known reasons.”

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The NLC added that, “Once people know there are no consequences, they will continue to steal public funds,” warning that kleptocracy continues to undermine development. “For FAAC to truly benefit the people, the issue of kleptocracy must be addressed. What are the EFCC and ICPC doing?” it asked.

CSOs react

Chairman of the Centre for Accountability and Open Leadership, Debo Adeniran, described subnational governments as “meddlesome interlopers”.

“Because we have been so complacent, we in the civil society, and maybe the media, have not been following the money from the point of release to the point of expenditure,” he said.

“The increase in allocations to states has just increased the financial opportunity for the state governors, not percolating to the level of the people that are supposed to be the final recipients of government charities,” Adeniran added.

The Executive Director of CISLAC, Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, said, “There’s no physical, verifiable, tangible evidence to show that the monies the governments are receiving are touching lives in terms of healthcare, electricity, physical infrastructure, or even agriculture.”

“What you see in the states is that these monies are collected, but it is about decamping, defections, and strategising for 2027,” he said.

Opposition parties lament

As federal allocations to states continue to rise, opposition parties, civil society actors and government officials across several states have expressed sharply differing views on whether the increased revenue has translated into tangible development and improved living conditions for citizens.

In Lagos State, the Chairman of the opposition African Democratic Congress, George Ashiru, said rising federal allocations and internally generated revenue had failed to ease hardship among residents.

According to him, inflationary pressures triggered by federal policies have outweighed gains from increased funding.

“Rents have gone up between 200 and 400 per cent in many areas. Social services have not matched inflationary trends, while infrastructure development still focuses on legacy projects instead of overcrowded inner-city areas,” Ashiru said.

He added that ongoing demolitions appeared to favour high-end housing projects, while public schools, healthcare facilities, intra-city roads and the overall cost of governance continued to suffer neglect.

The Peoples Democratic Party in Sokoto State rated the current development in the state as zero when compared to the huge allocations received from the federal government.

The spokesman of the party in the state, Hassan Sahabi Sanyinnawal, while speaking with our correspondent on the telephone, said the state government, led by Governor Ahmad Aliyu of the All Progressives Congress, only concentrates on two out of the 23 local government areas in the state.

“There is nothing on the ground to show for the huge allocation. We have 23 LGs in the state, but there is absolutely nothing going on in 21 LGs. In the two LGs within the metropolis, they are busy doing roundabouts, street fencing, and beautification.

“They did not do anything that the people of the state needed. Water is no longer running in the metropolis, the health sector is not getting attention, our education is not getting the necessary attention, among many others, but they are beautifying the metropolis.

“The beautification has no economic impact on the people of the state. They need to do better when you compare it with the money being received now,” he added.

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On his part, the Kano State Chairman of the Social Democratic Party, Ali Shettima, said the absence of clear information on state allocations made it difficult to carry out a fair assessment of the government’s performance.

“I don’t even know how much is allocated to the state. I can’t give an accurate assessment based on something I don’t know,” he said.

In Plateau State, the Chairman of the Alternative Democratic Party (ADP), Bitrus Boyi, questioned the visibility of development projects despite claims of increased federal allocation.

“If truly there has been an increment in federal allocations, it has not translated to development. Most of the projects we see are funded by development partners,” he said, urging the state government to ensure that increased revenue benefits residents.

Similarly, the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) in Bauchi State accused the state government of prioritising “luxury and white elephant projects” over education and healthcare.

The party’s chairman, Abbas Abba, described the condition of schools and hospitals as “poor and alarming,” alleging that government spending focused more on propaganda than sustainable impact.

However, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party in Bauchi rejected the claims, insisting that development was evident in regular salary payments, road projects, healthcare revitalisation and school renovations across the state.

In Zamfara State, politicians Alhaji Musa Yankuzo and Mohammed Sani said the state had little to show despite higher federal allocations, accusing governors of mismanaging funds for selfish interests rather than development.

The ADC in Kebbi State also dismissed the achievements of Governor Nasir Idris, with the party’s chairman, Sufiyanu Bala, citing unemployment, dilapidated schools, out-of-school children and weak healthcare services as evidence that increased allocations had failed to improve living standards.

In Gombe State, the PDP said development remained “one-sided,” alleging that the ruling APC focused mainly on capital projects with little direct impact on citizens’ welfare.

“The essence of democracy is to improve education, health, water supply and security. That is not what we are seeing,” PDP spokesman Abdulkadir Ahmad said.

Contrasting views

In contrast, the Labour Party in Nasarawa State commended the Governor Abdullahi Sule-led APC government for infrastructure development, particularly the completion of the over N16bn Lafia flyover and ongoing projects in Akwanga, Keffi and Karu.

LP chairman Alexander Ombugu praised the administration’s prudence and commitment, urging the governor to do more. President Bola Tinubu had commissioned the Lafia flyover in June 2025 alongside other projects, including roads, a new secretariat complex and a solar mini-grid.

In Kwara State, the PDP and APC traded blame over the impact of rising federal revenue.

The PDP accused the state government of concentrating spending in limited areas of Ilorin, the capital city, and neglecting insecurity, workers’ welfare and rural communities.

“We have had huge allocations since 2019, yet the people have benefited close to nothing,” PDP spokesman Olusegun Adewara said, calling for improved security, better wages and investment in the informal sector.

The APC dismissed the claims, insisting that the AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq administration had deployed resources across infrastructure, education, healthcare and social investment programmes in all senatorial districts.

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State police: Federal force can intervene over electoral intimidation — Senate

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The Senate on Sunday said the proposed State Police Bill contains constitutional safeguards that would allow the federal police to intervene in cases of electoral intimidation, serious human rights violations and threats to national security, dismissing concerns that governors could abuse the proposed policing system for political purposes.

The upper chamber also defended the passage of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (Alteration) (State Police) Bill, 2026, revealing that 84 of the 109 senators voted in support of the legislation during its clause-by-clause consideration, describing the outcome as evidence of broad bipartisan backing.

The clarification comes amid growing debate over the proposed decentralisation of policing, with supporters arguing that state police would strengthen security at the grassroots, while critics fear governors could exploit the outfit to intimidate political opponents ahead of elections.

Defending the Senate’s position in a statement issued by his media office on Sunday, the Senate Leader, Opeyemi Bamidele, said the proposed amendment clearly delineates the constitutional responsibilities of the federal and state police to minimise operational conflicts and improve security coordination.

He explained that the federal police would continue to handle the protection of federal institutions, policing of the Federal Capital Territory, counter-terrorism, organised crime, cybercrime, border security, arms trafficking, interstate criminal activities and other national security matters, while state police would be responsible for enforcing state laws, maintaining public order and protecting lives and property within their jurisdictions.

Bamidele said the bill equally contains several safeguards designed to prevent governors from abusing state police.

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He explained that although governors may nominate commissioners of police, such appointments would require recommendations by the National Police Council and approval by a two-thirds majority of the relevant state House of Assembly.

The Senate Leader added that the National Police Council would oversee overall policy, funding and appointments, while an independent State Police Service Commission would regulate state police operations without the control of state governors.

Explaining the circumstances under which the federal police may intervene, Bamidele said such action would only be permissible in exceptional situations.

He said, “The intervention can only be granted when there is an outright breakdown of public order; where a state police service is incapable of functioning; where there are serious abuses of fundamental rights; where there is partisan or electoral intimidation; and when national security is heavily strained and threatened.

“To avoid any form of abuse, the bill creates the State Police Service Commission. In design, the commission will serve as the regulatory authority of the state police system.

“Under this arrangement, the commission will be authorised ‘to, without the approval or control of the governor, make rules regulating its own procedure or conferring powers and imposing duties on any officer or authority for the purpose of discharging its functions under the 1999 Constitution.’”

Continuing, Bamidele dismissed claims that the proposal was politically motivated, insisting that it emerged from extensive consultations with the executive, the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, the Conference of Speakers of State Legislatures and the leadership of the Nigeria Police.

The Ekiti senator added that public hearings conducted across the six geopolitical zones in July 2025 produced overwhelming support for the establishment of state police.

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He said, “The state police bill was subjected to intense debates at the Senate and House of Representatives. Even though the All Progressives Congress is the majority party, opposition legislators actively took part in the process that approved the state police initiative.

“They exercised their discretion in favour of the proposal, mainly in the national interest and not on a parochial basis. In the Senate, for instance, 84 out of 109 members voted clause by clause in support of the Bill. This accounted for 77.06 per cent approval at the Senate alone.”

He maintained that the proposed constitutional amendment was designed to strengthen accountability and ensure that the creation of a state police enhances national security without undermining democratic governance or citizens’ fundamental rights.

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FG warns South Africa, threatens tough action over Xenophobia killings

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The Federal Government has warned that Nigeria may consider additional measures if attacks on its citizens in South Africa persist.

This is as the country condemned the killing of two Nigerian nationals in South Africa and demanded immediate investigations, warning that the continued targeting of foreigners, particularly Nigerians, raises serious concerns about their safety and the resurgence of xenophobic violence in the country.

The victims, Emeka Charles Iroegbu and Musa Yunana Joe, popularly known as Big Joe, were both killed on June 28, 2026.

While Iroegbu was allegedly tortured to death by officers of the Tshwane Metro Police in Sunnyside, Pretoria, Joe was reportedly shot dead by unidentified criminals outside his shop in Witbank, Mpumalanga.

In separate statements issued on Sunday by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Nigerian Consulate General in Johannesburg and the Nigerian Union South Africa, authorities called for prompt, transparent and exhaustive investigations to ensure that those responsible were apprehended and prosecuted without delay.

“We wish to place the Government of South Africa on notice that if the situation continues to persist, all options remain on the table, some of which will be activated if the uncultured and provocative trend of intolerance and apartheid-style behaviour of South Africa against foreigners is not addressed,” the statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated.

The government described the incidents as part of a disturbing pattern of violence against Nigerians in South Africa, noting that the same Tshwane Metro Police officers allegedly implicated in the killing of another Nigerian, Nnaemeka Mathew Andrew Ekpenyong, on April 20, have yet to be arrested despite being known to the South African Police Service.

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In the statement issued on Sunday by the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kimiebi Ebienfa, the government expressed outrage over the deaths.

The statement said, “One victim, Emeka Charles Iroegbu, was reportedly killed by Tshwane Metro Police officers on 28th June 2026, in Sunnyside, Pretoria, using gruesome interrogation techniques.”

The government further recalled that the same officers were allegedly involved in the extrajudicial killing of another Nigerian, Nnaemeka Mathew Andrew Ekpenyong, on April 20, 2026.

“His case is still pending; no arrests have been made, even though the four officers involved are known to the South African Police Service,” the statement added.

The ministry noted that the killings occurred amid rising xenophobic tensions and increasing attacks on foreigners in South Africa, warning against attempts to stereotype Nigerians as criminals.

“These two killings come at a time when foreigners are being unduly targeted in South Africa. This raises questions about a deliberate attempt by some elements to wrongfully generalise and tag well-meaning, hard-working, and respectable Nigerians as criminals,” it stated.

The Federal Government also accused some South African security operatives, particularly officers of the Tshwane Metro Police, of complicity in the attacks.

Nigeria further expressed concern over remarks reportedly made by a spokesperson of the South African government, who allegedly challenged Nigerians leaving the country because of xenophobic protests to reveal where illegal drugs were hidden.

The government described the comments as inflammatory and unacceptable.

“The unguarded public statements are unacceptable and are strongly condemned. Such derogatory, unprofessional and uncensored generalised public statements by highly placed government officials constitute hate speech that influences and incites negative and criminal actions against members of the Nigerian community,” the statement said.

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The Federal Government called on South African authorities to launch immediate investigations into the killings and other unresolved cases involving Nigerian nationals.

“The Government of Nigeria, therefore, calls on the South African authorities to conduct urgent investigations into the two killings and several other pending cases of extrajudicial killings of Nigerian nationals in South Africa, and ensure that the perpetrators of the heinous crimes are brought to justice without further delay,” the ministry stated.

While sympathising with the families of the deceased, the government said it would continue engaging South African authorities at the highest levels until justice is achieved.

The ministry also advised Nigerians residing in South Africa to remain calm, law-abiding and vigilant, urging them to relocate to safer areas and avoid locations prone to violence amid ongoing xenophobic and Afrophobic demonstrations.

The ministry, however, appealed to Nigerians not to engage in retaliatory actions, stressing that the government would continue to pursue dialogue and negotiations in the spirit of African unity, brotherhood and solidarity.

It added that the evacuation process for registered Nigerians willing to leave South Africa remained ongoing.

Another statement signed by the Nigerian Consul General in Johannesburg, Amb Ninikanwa Okey-Uche, revealed that the officers of the Tshwane Metro Police killed Iroegbu, while Joe was murdered by some criminals.

“We continue to call on the South African authorities to investigate the cases and bring the perpetrators of the gruesome acts to justice without further delay,” the statement affirmed.

Also, the Nigerian Union South Africa “demands prompt, transparent and exhaustive investigation to ensure that the perpetrators are apprehended and face the full wrath of the law.”

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The statement by the union’s spokesperson, Akindele Olunloyo, said the community was working with the Nigerian High Commission in Pretoria and the Consulate General of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in Johannesburg to monitor the situation.

“In light of these tragic killings, we urge all Nigerians in South Africa to remain calm, law-abiding and vigilant. Please exercise extreme caution in your daily activities, know your surroundings, and report any suspicious activities to the local police,” it added.

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FG secures $11.4bn World Bank loans in three years

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President Bola Tinubu’s administration has secured $11.40bn in loan approvals from the World Bank in just about three years, putting it on course to surpass the total amount approved under former President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year administration, an analysis of data obtained by The PUNCH from the World Bank has shown.

The analysis showed that the World Bank approved loans worth $11.40bn for Nigeria between June 2023 and June 2026, compared with $14.59bn approved during Buhari’s presidency from May 2015 to May 2023.

The latest figure means Tinubu’s administration has already secured about 78.2 per cent of the total World Bank financing approved during Buhari’s two terms in office and requires another $3.19bn in approvals to exceed that record.

The data further showed that World Bank loans approved under Tinubu have already surpassed those listed under Buhari’s first term by more than $5.8bn. According to the World Bank data, projects approved under Buhari’s first term amounted to about $5.56bn.

Using the figures contained in the World Bank database, Tinubu’s current approvals exceed the Buhari first-term total by about 105 per cent.

However, of the $11.4bn approved under Tinubu, only $2.32bn had been disbursed as of the latest update on the World Bank website, leaving $8.41bn available for disbursement. This represents a disbursement rate of about 20.3 per cent.

By comparison, projects approved during Buhari’s administration have recorded much higher implementation levels. Out of the $14.59bn approved during his presidency, $11.94bn had been disbursed, while $1.53bn remained available.

The figures translate to a disbursement rate of about 81.8 per cent, reflecting the fact that many of the projects have either been completed, are in repayment or are approaching completion.

The World Bank portfolio under Tinubu has been concentrated largely in economic reforms, education, healthcare, agriculture, energy, digital infrastructure, financial inclusion and social protection.

The single largest approval came in June 2024, when the World Bank approved a $2.25bn financing package comprising the $1.5bn Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing and the $750m Nigeria Accelerating Resource Mobilisation Reforms Programme-for-Results.

According to the World Bank, the financing was designed to support Nigeria’s economic reform programme, strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve domestic revenue mobilisation and protect poor and vulnerable households during the implementation of reforms.

The World Bank said the package was intended to support the Federal Government’s ongoing reforms, including exchange rate reforms, fiscal consolidation, and measures aimed at strengthening public finances.

The World Bank data showed that the RESET programme has been fully disbursed, while the ARMOR programme had recorded disbursements of $280.55m, leaving $469.45m available.

The reform package attracted public attention because it coincided with the implementation of major economic reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, both of which contributed to sharp increases in inflation and the cost of living.

The World Bank has consistently maintained that the reforms are necessary to restore macroeconomic stability and place public finances on a more sustainable path, although several labour unions, civil society groups and opposition politicians have criticised the pace of the reforms and their impact on households.

Another major addition to Tinubu’s World Bank portfolio came on June 29, 2026, when the bank approved the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration programme. The programme consists of two facilities worth $500m and $750m respectively, bringing total financing under the initiative to $1.25bn.

Announcing the approval, the World Bank said the financing formed part of its new Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria covering 2026 to 2032. According to the bank, the framework aims to support private sector-led growth, improve job creation, expand energy access, strengthen digital infrastructure, and improve agricultural productivity.

Agriculture also accounts for a significant share of the approvals under Tinubu. In March 2026, the World Bank approved a $500m credit for the Nigeria Sustainable Agricultural Value-Chains for Growth project.

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The bank said the project is expected to improve agricultural productivity, strengthen value chains, increase market access for smallholder farmers and create employment opportunities across participating states. The facility had yet to record any disbursement, according to the World Bank data.

In December 2024, the bank also approved three separate credits worth $357m, $57m and $86m for the Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project Scale-Up, bringing total financing under the programme to $500m. The facilities were still awaiting disbursement.

The power sector has also remained one of the largest recipients of World Bank financing under Tinubu. In June 2023, shortly after the inauguration of the administration, the World Bank approved $750m for the Power Sector Recovery Performance-Based Operation through separate facilities of $301m and $449m.

The World Bank data showed that the facilities had disbursed $28.10m and $41.24m, respectively. In December 2023, the bank approved another $750m for the Nigeria Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up Project. The project comprises three facilities worth $350m, $250m, and $150m.

The World Bank said the programme is expected to provide new or improved electricity access to about 17.5 million Nigerians through distributed renewable energy solutions. The data showed that only the $350m facility had recorded disbursement, amounting to $97.71m, while the remaining two facilities had yet to record any drawdown.

In September 2024, the World Bank approved another $500m for the Sustainable Power and Irrigation for Nigeria Project. According to the World Bank, the project is designed to improve dam safety, strengthen irrigation infrastructure, and increase hydropower generation in selected locations across the country.

The World Bank data showed that $33m had been disbursed under the project, leaving $467m available. Nigeria’s power sector has remained one of the most heavily financed sectors by the World Bank over the past decade. However, implementation challenges have also persisted.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Federal Government and the World Bank agreed to cancel about $717m in undisbursed financing under the Power Sector Recovery Operation following changes in implementation arrangements and unmet programme conditions, including reforms linked to electricity tariffs and sector financing.

Education and healthcare also account for a substantial portion of Tinubu’s World Bank borrowing. In September 2023, the World Bank approved the $700m Adolescent Girls Initiative for Learning and Empowerment project. The project had recorded a disbursement of $148.35m, while $558.22m remained available.

The Nigeria for Women Programme Scale-Up Project, approved in June 2023, received $500m. The World Bank data showed that $109.62m had been disbursed, while $393.67m remained available.

The World Bank expanded its support for Nigeria’s human capital development in September 2024 with the approval of three major projects valued at $1.5bn. The projects comprised the $500m Nigeria Human Capital Opportunities for Prosperity and Equity Governance programme, the $500m Primary Healthcare Provision Strengthening Programme and the $500m Sustainable Power and Irrigation for Nigeria Project.

According to the World Bank, the HOPE programmes are expected to improve access to quality basic education and primary healthcare services while strengthening governance and accountability in the delivery of public services. An analysis of the World Bank data showed that implementation of the projects remains at an early stage.

The HOPE Governance project had recorded disbursement of $3m out of the approved $500m, leaving $497m available. The Primary Healthcare Provision Strengthening Programme had disbursed $75.35m, while $424.65m remained available. The Sustainable Power and Irrigation Project had drawn $33m, leaving $467m yet to be disbursed.

Combined, the three projects had received disbursements of $111.35m, representing about 7.4 per cent of the approved financing.

The World Bank also approved another package of projects in March 2025 covering education, community resilience and nutrition. The package included the $500m HOPE for Quality Basic Education for All project, the $500m Community Action for Resilience and Economic Stimulus Programme, and the $80m Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria 2.0 project.

The financing was intended to improve education quality, support vulnerable households, and address malnutrition among women and children. The World Bank data showed that none of the projects had recorded any disbursement as of the latest update.

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Financial inclusion and digital infrastructure also featured prominently in the Tinubu administration’s World Bank portfolio. In December 2025, the World Bank approved the Fostering Inclusive Finance for MSMEs in Nigeria project comprising a $400m International Bank for Reconstruction and Development facility and a $100m International Development Association credit.

The bank said the project is expected to expand access to finance for micro, small and medium enterprises, strengthen financial institutions and mobilise private capital. Neither component had recorded any disbursement.

In October 2025, the World Bank approved the $500m Building Resilient Digital Infrastructure for Growth project to improve broadband connectivity and digital infrastructure across Nigeria.

The bank said the project would help increase broadband penetration, improve digital public infrastructure and support digital inclusion. The project remained at the effective stage with no disbursement recorded.

The World Bank also approved $250m for the Health Security Programme in Western and Central Africa, Nigeria Phase II, in September 2025 to strengthen disease surveillance and emergency preparedness following lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic. The facility was listed as signed and had yet to record any disbursement.

A sectoral analysis of the Tinubu administration’s World Bank portfolio showed that economic reforms, power, agriculture, education, healthcare and social protection account for the bulk of the financing approved since June 2023.

By comparison, Buhari’s World Bank borrowing was spread across fiscal reforms, electricity, agriculture, social investment, education, health, erosion control, mining, water resources, livestock development, business reforms, and COVID-19 response.

An analysis of annual approval trends showed that Tinubu’s administration has averaged about $3.7bn in World Bank approvals per year since assuming office in May 2023. By comparison, Buhari’s administration averaged about $1.82bn annually over eight years.

The figures indicate that World Bank financing approvals have accelerated under the current administration, although implementation remains at an earlier stage than projects approved during the previous administration.

The PUNCH recently reported that Nigeria’s debt to the World Bank rose by $2.08bn in one year to $19.89bn as of December 31, 2025, according to an analysis of external debt stock data released by the Debt Management Office.

The figure represents an 11.7 per cent increase from the $17.81bn owed to the global lender as of December 31, 2024. The World Bank debt comprises loans from the International Development Association and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

The IDA provides concessional grants and loans to low-income countries, while the IBRD provides financial products and policy advice mainly to middle-income and creditworthy developing countries.

DMO data showed that Nigeria’s IDA debt rose from $16.56bn in 2024 to $18.51bn in 2025, an increase of $1.94bn or 11.73 per cent. IBRD exposure also increased from $1.24bn to $1.38bn, representing an increase of $141.84m or 11.41 per cent.

The increase means World Bank loans accounted for 38.36 per cent of Nigeria’s total external debt stock of $51.86bn as of the end of 2025.

Reacting to the rising World Bank commitments to Nigeria, Lagos-based economist Adewale Abimbola said loans from multilateral institutions such as the World Bank are largely concessionary, with interest rates typically below market levels and longer repayment tenors.

He noted that the critical question is not whether Nigeria should be borrowing, but whether the loans are structured and deployed effectively. “If it’s concessionary and tied to viable projects with medium-term revenue prospects, I don’t think it’s a bad idea,” Abimbola explained. “Borrowing isn’t bad; what matters is utilisation.”

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He stressed that the economic impact of such loans depends on how well they are channelled into projects that can generate sustainable growth, strengthen revenue, and improve public services over time.

Development economist and CEO of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, expressed strong reservations about Nigeria’s rising debt profile in light of the World Bank’s fresh commitments.

While acknowledging that borrowing is not inherently bad for an economy, he questioned the rationale for taking on more debt at a time when the government claims to have higher revenues.

According to him, the impact of the current borrowing spree is being felt in reduced public service delivery, particularly in capital expenditure, as debt servicing now consumes a significant portion of available revenue.

He warned that this crowding-out effect limits job creation, fuels inflation, and worsens Nigeria’s foreign-exchange imbalance, with the naira trading at historically low levels.

He argued that given the claimed revenue surpluses, the Tinubu administration should not have needed to borrow within its first two years in office, let alone at the scale currently being witnessed.

Economist and CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said that borrowing should always be backed by sound economic reasoning and clear development priorities. Yusuf emphasised that the key issue is debt sustainability, which depends primarily on the country’s revenue capacity to service its obligations.

Without strong cash flow to meet repayment schedules, he warned, Nigeria risks falling into a vicious cycle of borrowing to service existing loans, thereby perpetuating fiscal vulnerability. He said it is essential that projects funded by loans directly support the economy’s capacity to repay.

According to him, Nigeria should be cautious with foreign loans due to the exchange rate risks they pose, noting that domestic debt is generally easier to manage. He stressed that a disciplined approach to debt sustainability will be crucial for Nigeria to avoid long-term fiscal distress.

Responding to an enquiry by The PUNCH recently on the delay in loan disbursements, the Senior External Affairs Officer at the World Bank, Mansir Nasir, noted that funds for projects financed by the institution were not disbursed at once but in instalments, depending on the nature of the project and financing instruments.

“Projects financed by the World Bank run for a certain time, which varies depending on the specific project. The total amount of the project is not disbursed as a one-off, but rather in instalments depending on the financing instruments—e.g., IPF or PforR—which require certain milestones for specific disbursement values.

“If you look at the portal, you will see the specific disbursement timelines and values,” Nasir added. He further stated that before a new project can begin disbursement, it must meet certain agreed conditions between the Federal Government and the World Bank.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, recently faulted Nigerians, especially analysts and commentators, for criticising government borrowing without considering the purpose, cost and expected returns of such debt.

Oyedele said, “When analysts go on TV and join the populist view to accuse the government of borrowing, you are doing a disservice. The relevant question is never simply how much debt.

“It is always debt for what and at what cost, against what return, and repaid on what terms. A nation, a state, or a business that borrows to finance a productive asset generating returns above the cost of that capital is not behaving recklessly; it is behaving rationally.”

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