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Dangote faces price war as NNPC backs fuel imports

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has told the Federal High Court sitting in Lagos that petroleum products from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE are sold at “significantly high and fluctuating market prices”, warning that granting the refinery’s requests could hand it monopoly control of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

The national oil company stated this in a counter-affidavit in opposition to Dangote refinery’s originating summons in Suit No: FHC/L/CS/857/2026 before the Federal High Court, Lagos Judicial Division.

Similarly, marketers under the aegis of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria supported the NNPC, saying competition must be allowed in the petroleum sector to prevent what it called price exploitation, saying multiple sources privy would bring about a reduction in fuel prices.

In the counter-affidavit, a copy of which was obtained by our correspondent, the NNPC asked the court to dismiss or strike out the suit on grounds that it was incompetent, premature, disclosed no cause of action, and constituted an abuse of court process.

Dangote tackles importers

The PUNCH reports that the Dangote refinery had challenged the issuance of petrol import licences to marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

The PUNCH reports that the NMDPRA recently approved licences for the importation of over 700,000 metric tonnes of petrol despite claims that the Dangote refinery now supplies more than 90 per cent of the nation’s daily PMS consumption.

The Dangote refinery had dragged the Attorney-General and the NNPC before the court, asking it to void import permits granted by the NMDPRA to fuel importers, arguing that the licences violated existing regulations and an earlier court order to maintain the status quo.

Dangote had accused the NNPC and others of sabotaging the $20bn investment, especially by denying it crude supplies and resorting to fuel importation when it has the capacity to produce what the country needs in terms of petrol, diesel, and others.

NNPC responds

Responding, the NNPC said it would raise a preliminary objection challenging the competence of the suit and the refinery’s locus standi. “The plaintiff’s suit is premature; the plaintiff lacks locus standi,” the affidavit said.

The state oil company declared that Dangote refinery’s petroleum products were already expensive and subject to price swings dictated by commercial interests. “The plaintiff’s petroleum products are already sold at significantly high and fluctuating market prices, dictated by its commercial interests,” the company said.

NNPC accused the refinery of forum shopping, saying, ”The institution of multiple actions by the plaintiff in respect of substantially the same subject matter and reliefs constitutes an abuse of court process and amounts to forum shopping.”

The company argued that the Dangote refinery had earlier filed a similar action before the Abuja Judicial Division of the Federal High Court in Suit No. FHC/ABJ/CS/1324/2024 against the NMDPRA and six others over import licences and levies before later withdrawing the case and instituting another action in Lagos.

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NNPC maintained that there was no evidence showing the refinery could independently satisfy Nigeria’s petroleum product demand. “There is no credible, independent, or verifiable evidence before this honourable court establishing that the plaintiff presently satisfies the petroleum product demands of Nigeria,” NNPC argued.

The national oil company added that the refinery failed to provide independently verified evidence establishing the country’s actual daily consumption needs or proof of its ability to guarantee an uninterrupted nationwide supply.

“The plaintiff has failed to place before this Honourable Court any comprehensive or independently verified evidence establishing the actual daily national consumption rate of petroleum products in Nigeria or the plaintiff’s ability to guarantee uninterrupted nationwide petroleum supply independently,” it was said.

NNPC also argued that the refinery’s production claims were insufficient to justify restricting imports, stressing, “The plaintiff’s alleged production figures are selective, incomplete, and incapable of establishing nationwide product sufficiency.”

The company stressed that fuel supply obligations go beyond refining capacity alone, as they necessarily involve logistics, strategic storage, product evacuation, distribution, haulage, transportation, and strategic reserve management.

NNPC warned that depending on a single operator for national fuel supply would endanger Nigeria’s energy security. “Reliance on a single supplier within the petroleum industry poses grave risks to national energy security,” it was stated.

The company added that restricting imports in the manner sought by the refinery could trigger severe supply crises nationwide. “Restricting importation channels in the manner sought by the plaintiff would expose Nigeria to severe risks of petroleum shortages, supply disruptions, price instability, distribution failures, and national energy crises,” the affidavit read.

NNPC further told the court that any operational interruption, shutdown, or disruption affecting the Dangote refinery operations in Nigeria would result in severe petroleum shortages if alternative importation and supply channels are eliminated.

The company accused the refinery of attempting to edge out other participants in the downstream supply chain. It warned that granting the refinery’s requests could create monopoly control in the petroleum sector.

“The reliefs sought by the plaintiff are aimed at substantially restricting or eliminating other participants within the petroleum importation and supply chain. The grant of the plaintiff’s reliefs would effectively expose Nigeria’s petroleum sector to monopoly control and undermine competitive participation within the industry,” the affidavit stated.

NNPC warned the court that a monopoly in the sector would hurt consumers and destabilise the economy by distorting market competition, undermining pricing stability, reducing supply flexibility, and exposing the Nigerian economy to “substantial risks”.

The company defended the continued issuance of import licences by regulators, insisting they were lawful and necessary for energy security and market stability, saying this does not contravene Section 317(9) of the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021.

The oil company told the court that Section 317(8) of the PIA merely gave regulators discretionary powers regarding backward integration policy and did not impose a mandatory ban on imports.

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“Section 317(9) of the Petroleum Industry Act expressly contemplates the issuance of import licences to companies with active local refining licences or proven track records in international crude oil and petroleum products trading.

“Section 317(8) of the Petroleum Industry Act merely provides that the Authority may apply a Backwards Integration Policy in the downstream petroleum sector, thereby conferring discretionary powers on the regulatory authorities rather than imposing a mandatory prohibition on petroleum importation,” it added.

NNPC specifically defended the roles of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and the NMDPRA in the dispute, saying, “The 2nd Defendant, NMDPRA, NUPRC and other relevant agencies of government have not frustrated the plaintiff in the execution of its business objectives or refinery operations in any manner whatsoever.”

NNPC also denied allegations of sabotage and deliberate denial of crude oil supply to the refinery. “The government and the 2nd Defendant have not deliberately denied the plaintiff a crude oil supply,” the company stated.

It added, “Contrary to the plaintiff’s allegations, the 2nd Defendant has not sabotaged the plaintiff’s refinery operations.”

According to the affidavit, crude oil supply arrangements are influenced by “operational realities, commercial arrangements, security considerations, production levels, logistical constraints, and contractual obligations.”

The company insisted that all actions relating to importation, licensing, supply, and distribution were undertaken strictly in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, market realities, and national interest considerations.

NNPC further argued that the refinery was only one of several operators in the industry and could not override the rights of other participants, saying it is the supplier of last resort.

The latest court battle is the second significant legal confrontation yet between Dangote refinery and major government oil agencies since the commencement of operations at the multibillion-dollar Lekki-based refinery owned by billionaire businessman Aliko Dangote.

The Dangote refinery withdrew the 2024 suit following the Federal Government’s intervention. The dispute is rooted in disagreements over petroleum importation, crude oil supply arrangements, market competition, and the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act following the deregulation of Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

Since the removal of the petrol subsidy in 2023, fuel prices have been largely determined by market forces, forcing marketers, importers, refiners, and regulators into intense competition over supply control and pricing.

The Dangote refinery had once been attacked by some marketers over incessant petrol price reductions, which they said impacted their sales negatively. The refinery, which commenced petrol production in 2024 after years of delay and huge capital investment, has repeatedly pushed for stronger government support for local refining and restrictions on fuel imports, arguing that continued importation undermines domestic refining capacity.

The refinery had earlier accused regulatory authorities of issuing import licences despite local refining output being able to meet domestic demand.

However, NNPC, oil marketers, and regulators have consistently maintained that Nigeria still requires multiple supply channels because of distribution challenges, emergency supply considerations, strategic reserve obligations, and uncertainties surrounding nationwide consumption levels.

See also  Dangote now supplies 92% of petrol as FG pauses imports

Marketers back NNPC

It was gathered that the NMDPRA and some marketers are planning to join the suit.

Speaking, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, stated that while every corporate organisation has the constitutional right to seek legal redress, the downstream petroleum sector must continue to encourage healthy competition, market stability, and energy security in the overall interest of Nigerians.

According to him, competition remains a critical pillar “for ensuring product availability, price moderation, efficiency, and sustainability within the petroleum distribution value chain”.

He emphasised that Nigeria’s energy market must not be allowed to tilt towards monopoly, regardless of the scale of investment or refining capacity of any single operator.

The PETROAN boss reiterated that Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector must remain open, competitive, and balanced in order to “prevent supply shocks and protect consumers from artificial scarcity or price exploitation”.

Gillis-Harry acknowledged the significant investment made by the Dangote refinery and commended its contribution to local refining capacity, job creation, and reduction in fuel import dependence.

However, he stressed that a liberalised downstream market remains essential, where multiple operators can function fairly under the regulatory supervision of the Federal Government. He said one of the benefits of healthy competition in the downstream petroleum sector is the “reduction in fuel prices through competitive pricing”.

He outlined the disadvantages of monopoly in the sector, including arbitrary and exploitative pricing, limited choices for consumers, and reduced efficiency due to a lack of competition.

Gillis-Harry, therefore, reaffirms that the issuance of import licences is not only lawful but also a regulatory necessity provided by law to prevent scarcity and ensure continuous fuel availability across Nigeria.

Refiners oppose imports

The Crude Oil Refineries Association of Nigeria had also challenged fuel importers and clashed with marketers over the continued importation of refined petroleum products.

The CORAN Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, recently told our correspondent that commitment to the sector should be measured by capital invested and long-term risk exposure, not trading activity.

“Who has truly demonstrated faith in Nigeria’s downstream sector—local refinery companies or petroleum importers? The answer is not ideological. It is grounded in evidence, capital behaviour, and long-term commitment,” CORAN stated.

The association said local refinery companies had demonstrated belief in Nigeria by committing capital to fixed industrial assets located within the country. “Local refinery companies—spanning large-scale, mid-scale, and modular refineries—have demonstrated belief in Nigeria’s downstream sector by committing capital to fixed industrial assets located within the country,” it said.

CORAN described refining as one of the most capital-intensive and risk-exposed segments of the petroleum value chain, saying investors must contend with construction and commissioning risk, crude oil supply uncertainty, foreign exchange volatility, power, logistics, and evacuation constraints, and regulatory and policy inconsistency.

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Nigerians spend N50bn on US visa applications

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Nigerians spent more than N50bn on US visa applications between 2023 and 2024, despite a sharp decline in approvals as Washington tightened immigration controls and increased scrutiny of applicants.

An analysis of the Intelpoint report, using data from the US Department of State, shows that 201,200 non-immigrant visas were issued to Nigerians between 2023 and 2024. At a standard application fee of $185 per applicant, Nigerians spent approximately $37.2m, equivalent to N50.7bn at an average exchange rate of N1,360 to the dollar.

Visa issuances declined by about 23 per cent, falling to 87,300 in 2024 from 113,900 in 2023, a reduction of 26,600 visas. The PUNCH could not obtain comparable figures for 2025 at the time of reporting.

Business and tourism travel dominated approvals in 2024, with B1/B2 visas accounting for 83 per cent of total issuances, while student visas (F1) represented about seven per cent. Exchange visitor visas (J1) and other temporary categories made up the remainder.

Africa’s most populous nation remained a significant source market for the United States, accounting for about 0.8 per cent of global non-immigrant visa issuances in 2024, the data showed.

Former President of the National Association of Nigeria Travel Agencies, Susan Akporiaye, said Nigerians’ travel behaviour is driven by more than economic conditions, noting a strong cultural inclination toward mobility.

“People would say it’s because of the economy, but I share a different view. Nigerians are generally migrants; they love travelling.

We are like the Chinese of Africa,” Akporiaye told The PUNCH.

The executive argued that most Nigerians who travel abroad return home, and only a small proportion remain outside the country permanently. “There is so much noise of Nigerians staying back. The ones who travel and return are far more than those who stay back. It’s not up to 10 per cent that don’t return,” she stated.

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The decline in visa issuances comes amid a series of policy changes introduced after Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, which have gradually tightened requirements for Nigerian applicants.

In July 2025, the US Department of State announced that most non-immigrant and non-diplomatic visas issued to Nigerian citizens would be restricted to single-entry permits valid for three months, with existing visas unaffected.

In August, applicants were required to disclose all social media usernames used over the previous five years on DS-160 forms, with officials warning that omissions could lead to visa denial or ineligibility.

Akporiaye also noted that travel demand cuts across income levels, from affluent individuals to ordinary citizens travelling for social events. “Nigerians like to explore. We travel for birthdays, weddings, and other ceremonies. I’m not talking about people like Dangote or Otedola, but ordinary Nigerians you don’t even know,” she said.

The expert, however, acknowledged that demand for US travel has softened relative to other destinations, citing operational and policy-related constraints.

“The demand has reduced for some destinations like the US, and it’s becoming worse now. Conditional requirements and operational changes at the US Embassy in Abuja have made access more difficult, including the consolidation of services in Lagos,” she stated.

“There are stories about visas being cancelled or Nigerians getting deported, and that makes people a bit sceptical. But other destinations are still booming.”

Further tightening followed in December 2025, when the US Mission in Nigeria said Washington expanded travel restrictions to include partial limitations on Nigeria and five other countries, effective January 1, 2026.

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An executive at Travel and Tours Limited, Maureen Chimaobi, said securing a US visa has become increasingly difficult over the past year, with many first-time applicants facing steep odds despite completing all required procedures.

“Last year, getting a US visa drastically reduced, especially if you are a first-time traveller or first-time applicant. It’s almost a no-go area,” Chimaobi told our correspondent.

She noted that applicants continue to pay visa fees, schedule appointments and attend interviews, but approvals have become far less predictable. “You pay your visa fee, book your appointment and go for submission. Most of the time, they don’t give it,” the agent said.

The trend reflects growing concerns among travel operators about declining approval rates for Nigerian applicants, even as demand for overseas travel remains strong. Chimaobi said rejection levels have remained high throughout the period under review, particularly for individuals with limited international travel history.

The tougher environment is also influencing destination choices. More Nigerians are turning to countries where visa approvals are perceived to be more attainable, provided applicants can demonstrate sufficient financial capacity and present strong documentation.

“I think most countries still offer a 70 to 80 per cent chance of getting a visa, depending on the quality of your documents and your financial status,” Chimaobi revealed.

She identified the United Kingdom as one of the destinations with relatively stronger approval prospects, although she cautioned that British authorities have also hardened their assessment processes in recent months.

France and other countries within the Schengen area, once considered more accessible to Nigerian travellers, have become increasingly selective, especially toward first-time applicants, she added.

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“Before now, France used to issue visas more easily, but most Schengen countries have become difficult over time, particularly for first-time travellers,” Chimaobi said.

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Petrol imports crash by N2tn to N87bn; see why

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Nigeria’s spending on the importation of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol, plunged by over 96 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, marking a dramatic shift in the country’s fuel supply landscape and signaling the growing impact of local refining capacity.

Latest foreign trade statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that only N87.401bn was spent on the importation of Motor Spirit Ordinary, the official trade classification for petrol, between January and March 2026.

The figure represents a sharp decline of N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, compared to the N2.271tn spent on petrol imports during the corresponding period of 2025. The development is particularly significant as petrol, which had consistently ranked among Nigeria’s most imported commodities for years, was completely absent from the list of the country’s top traded products in the first quarter of 2026.

An analysis of the NBS data by our correspondent showed that petrol did not feature among the top 19 traded products with the rest of the world, Africa, or West Africa during the review period.

Instead, the leading traded products included crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, gas oil, durum wheat, machines for reception, conversion and transmission of data, used vehicles, motorcycles, agricultural seeders, medicaments, aircraft parts, butanes, petroleum bitumen, sugar cane, herbicides and fuel additives.

The report read, “The value of total imports stood at N13,619.33bn in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 18.17 per cent decrease from the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 (N16,644.42bn) and a 21.05 per cent decrease compared to the value recorded in Q4 2025 (N17,250.93bn).

“Analysis of Nigeria’s import trade reveals that China remained the leading source of imports in the first quarter of 2026, followed by the United States of America, India, Germany, and the United Arab Emirates. The most imported commodities during the quarter were petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals (crude), gas oil, durum wheat, machines for the reception, conversion, and transmission of voice, images, or data, and used vehicles with diesel or semi-diesel engines.

See also  Dangote now supplies 92% of petrol as FG pauses imports

“The value of other oil products imported in Q1 2026 stood at N748.10bn, reflecting an 85.05 per cent decrease from N5,005.22bn in Q1 2025 and an 81.38 per cent decrease from N4,018.31bn recorded in Q4 2025.”

The latest import figure is also the lowest quarterly amount spent on petrol imports since at least 2022, according to available trade records reviewed by our correspondent.

Data from previous years showed that Nigeria spent N2.694tn on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2022. The import bill declined by N661bn, or 24.5 per cent, to N2.033tn in the corresponding period of 2023.

However, petrol import spending surged by N1.780tn in 2024 to N3.813tn, representing an increase of 87.6 per cent year-on-year. The figure later dropped by N1.542tn, or 40.4 per cent, to N2.271tn in the first quarter of 2025 before plunging by a massive N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, to N87.401bn in the first quarter of 2026.

The latest figure means that for every N100 spent on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2025, only about N4 was spent during the same period in 2026. The NBS data also highlighted the changing structure of Nigeria’s petrol import trade profile over the years.

According to the report, the total trade value involving the petroleum product stood at N7.705tn in 2022. This declined marginally by N194bn, or 2.5 per cent, to N7.511tn in 2023.

Trade value, however, more than doubled in 2024, rising by N7.907tn, or 105.3 per cent, to N15.418tn, the highest level during the period under review. The figure subsequently fell by N5.045tn, or 32.7 per cent, to N10.373tn in 2025, reflecting changing trade dynamics in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

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The PUNCH reports that the sharp reduction in petrol imports reflects the increasing contribution of domestic refining facilities to fuel supply, reducing Nigeria’s dependence on foreign suppliers and helping conserve foreign exchange.

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported petrol despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, owing largely to the poor performance of state-owned refineries and inadequate domestic refining capacity.

The trend began to change following investments in local refining and the gradual increase in output from domestic refineries, which have reduced the need for large-scale fuel imports.

The sharp decline in petrol imports in the first quarter of 2026 comes amid growing domestic refining capacity, particularly from the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began supplying petrol to the Nigerian market in 2024.

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported Premium Motor Spirit despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer. The country’s state-owned refineries operated far below capacity for years, forcing marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company to spend trillions of naira annually importing fuel to meet domestic demand.

The commissioning of the 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery in Lekki, Lagos, marked a turning point in the downstream petroleum sector. Since commencing petrol production, the refinery has steadily increased output, supplying marketers, industrial users and fuel distributors across the country.

In January, the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported that Dangote refinery supplied an average of 40.1 million litres of petrol daily, accounting for 61.78 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol supply. Imported fuel contributed 24.8 million litres per day during the month.

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It increased significantly in February as imports collapsed. The refinery supplied about 36.5 million litres per day, while imports dropped to roughly 3.1 million litres per day, meaning locally refined fuel accounted for more than 92 per cent of national supply.

According to the NMDPRA March fact sheet, Dangote remained the sole domestic supplier of petrol, supplying 34.2 million litres per day. Imports rose slightly to 5.9 million litres daily, bringing total supply to about 40.1 million litres per day.

Supply rebounded strongly in April. Dangote supplied 40.7 million litres per day to the domestic market, while imports declined further to 3.7 million litres daily. Total petrol supply stood at 44.4 million litres per day, giving the refinery a market share of approximately 92 per cent of locally consumed fuel and about 80–92 per cent of overall supply, depending on the methodology used.

The disappearance of petrol from the list of top imported products is expected to strengthen arguments that local refining is beginning to alter Nigeria’s trade patterns, lower import dependence and reshape the country’s foreign exchange requirements.

The sustained reductions in fuel imports could improve Nigeria’s trade balance, reduce pressure on the naira and retain more value within the domestic economy, provided local production continues to meet demand.

The first-quarter data therefore represents one of the clearest indications yet of a major shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, with petrol imports falling to levels not seen in more than four years.

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Nigerian workers deserve a living wage; read details

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THIS is a debate that never goes away for too long: what is due to Nigerian workers? The renewed agitation over workers’ wages, triggered by a fresh Nigeria Governors’ Forum proposal to raise the national minimum wage to N100,000 per month, only confirms that the country is trapped in an endless cycle of wage adjustments that inflation quickly renders meaningless.

This means that the issue is not just about the size of the minimum wage. Rather, it is about whether Nigerian workers can afford to live with dignity.

That is why the conversation must shift from a statutory minimum wage to a genuine living-wage regime – and a stable economy.

The proposal by the Chairman of the NGF, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, has already been rejected by organised labour.

The Nigeria Labour Congress, through its spokesman, Benson Upah, dismissed N100,000 as grossly inadequate and argued that, given current realities, a realistic wage would be closer to N1 million per month!

The Federal Workers Forum also condemned the proposal as a “Greek gift,” insisting that it bears little relationship to prevailing economic conditions.

While the NLC’s N1 million demand may appear excessive to many, the underlying argument deserves serious attention.

The current N70,000 minimum wage approved in July 2024 has already been overtaken by inflation. Like every previous wage increase in Nigeria’s history, its real value has been rapidly eroded.

The country’s minimum wage trajectory elucidates this. It rose from N18,000 in 2011 to N30,000 in 2019 and then to N70,000 in 2024. Yet each increase was followed by soaring inflation that wiped out most of the gains.

It is alleged that some states have yet to implement the minimum wage for grassroots workers, local government employees and primary school teachers.

Dataphyte estimates that the real value of the previous N30,000 wage had collapsed to barely N11,708 by mid-2024. The current N70,000 wage is clearly following the same path.

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The CBN reported that workers lost N2.79 trillion in purchasing power in 2024 alone due to inflation. That explains why workers who celebrated the 133 per cent wage increase in 2024 now find themselves struggling to survive less than two years later.

Nothing illustrates the crisis more vividly than the National Bureau of Statistics and Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition Cost of a Healthy Diet data.

According to an analysis by The Whistler, a healthy diet for one adult now costs an average of N1,541 per day or N46,230 per month, excluding meal preparation costs.

This means that a worker earning N70,000 is left with just N23,770 after feeding only himself.

For an average Nigerian household of 5.06 persons, the monthly cost of a healthy diet rises to N233,923 — equivalent to 334 per cent of the current minimum wage.

In other words, the average worker cannot afford the minimum nutritional requirements recommended by global health standards.

Even the governors’ proposed N100,000 wage would still leave most families far below the subsistence level. It is therefore difficult to dispute labour’s argument that Nigeria’s wage structure has become detached from economic reality.

However, raising wages alone cannot solve the problem.

The organised private sector has raised legitimate concerns about its ability to pay across the board.

The president of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said the private sector should not be compelled to pay the same wage level as the government if businesses could not afford it.

The Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Adewale Oyerinde, points out that the process for arriving at a National Minimum Wage is “rooted in widely acclaimed tripartite negotiations and consultation and not just political statements, without any empirical data to back up the quantum of increase.”

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise warned that many businesses are already struggling under crushing energy costs, logistics bottlenecks, foreign exchange challenges, multiple taxation and weak consumer demand. All this needs to be addressed.

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Indeed, any wage increase that is unsupported by productivity growth and economic reforms risks fuelling another inflationary spiral. Businesses facing higher wage bills often pass costs to consumers, thereby worsening the very inflation the wage increase seeks to offset.

Nigeria must therefore avoid the false choice between workers’ welfare and business survival.

The real objective should be a living-wage framework tied to measurable economic indicators and supported by aggressive cost-of-living reduction policies.

This is the model increasingly adopted across many countries. In South Africa, the national minimum wage is approximately 28.79 rand per hour, translating to well over N250,000 monthly at prevailing exchange rates.

Algeria’s minimum wage is around 20,000 dinars (N204,000) monthly, while Egypt recently increased its public-sector minimum wage to 7,000 Egyptian pounds (N184,000).

Kenya’s minimum wage varies by sector and location, but the average of 16,113 Kenyan Shillings (N169,500) remains significantly higher in purchasing power terms than Nigeria’s.

Nigeria should not be setting wage policy as though inflation were a temporary inconvenience.

Food inflation remains the principal driver of household hardship, standing at 16.06 per cent YoY and higher than headline inflation of 15.69 per cent as of April.

Massive investments in agricultural productivity, rural roads, storage infrastructure and security in farming communities are urgently needed.

The absurd situation where healthy diets are more expensive in some rural communities than in urban centres because of poor roads must end.

The government must also address transport costs through investments in rail, inland waterways and public transportation systems.

Electricity tariffs remain a major burden on both households and businesses. Lowering energy costs would immediately improve living standards while enhancing business competitiveness.

Investments in health by ramping up health insurance enrolment and better access to quality care, and in education, via massive infrastructure improvements and teacher recruitment, will reduce household expenditure on these essentials.

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Furthermore, labour’s argument regarding improved government revenues deserves scrutiny.

Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, higher oil prices have boosted Nigeria’s earnings. It is estimated that the windfall has added more than N5 trillion to government coffers.

Whether that figure is an exaggeration or not, governments are receiving historically high FAAC allocations, averaging over a 50 per cent surge for states in 2025 and all tiers sharing up to N2 trillion in 2026.

Nigerians deserve to see some direct benefit from these gains through targeted subsidies for food production and transportation, public transit and essential services.

More fundamentally, wage determination should no longer depend on sporadic political negotiations every few years.

The National Minimum Wage Act should be amended to provide for automatic annual adjustments linked to inflation, productivity and cost-of-living indicators. Such a mechanism would prevent workers from suffering prolonged erosion of purchasing power before the government responds.

Above all, policymakers must remember that they are insulated from the hardships confronting ordinary citizens.

Governors, legislators, political appointees and senior public officials enjoy humongous allowances, subsidised accommodation, official vehicles, security details and generous expense accounts.

They do not queue for transport. They do not worry about school fees after buying food. They do not feel inflation in the same way as the average worker.

That disconnect explains why debates over N70,000, N100,000 or even N1 million often miss the central issue.

The goal of wage policy is not simply to keep workers alive so that the job is done. It is to ensure that honest labour can provide a decent standard of living.

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