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FG cancels $717m World Bank power loan amid blackouts; read details

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The Federal Government has cancelled $717.7m in undisbursed World Bank financing for Nigeria’s troubled electricity sector, effectively terminating the remaining portion of a $1.52bn power sector recovery programme amid mounting tariff shortfalls, worsening financial pressures, and persistent implementation challenges across the industry.

Documents obtained by The PUNCH from the World Bank website on Monday showed that the cancellation followed a formal request by the Federal Government and a joint decision by both parties to discontinue financing under the Power Sector Recovery Performance-Based Operation due to evolving sector realities and the inability to achieve key reform milestones.

According to the World Bank restructuring paper, the cancelled amount represents the entire undisbursed balance remaining under the programme. “The restructuring will result in the cancellation of the entire undisbursed balance in the amount of $717.7m equivalent, and no further disbursements will be made under the Program following approval of this restructuring,” the bank stated.

The bank also disclosed that the programme’s closing date had been brought forward from June 30, 2027, to May 31, 2026, effectively ending the operation more than a year ahead of schedule. The cancelled facility formed part of a broader World Bank intervention designed to revive Nigeria’s struggling power sector.

The original Power Sector Recovery Performance-Based Operation was approved on June 23, 2020, with financing of about $752.5m equivalent. The programme was structured to improve electricity supply reliability, strengthen the sector’s financial and fiscal sustainability, and enhance accountability among key institutions in the electricity value chain.

Following initial progress recorded under the programme, the World Bank approved an Additional Financing package of approximately $763.5m equivalent on June 9, 2023, to consolidate earlier gains and support a new phase of reforms. The financing became effective on June 19, 2024, and extended the project’s closing date to June 30, 2027.

Together, the original financing and the additional facility amounted to about $1.52bn.

However, while the parent programme achieved substantial results and largely disbursed its resources, the additional financing struggled to meet critical reform conditions, resulting in limited disbursements and eventual cancellation of the remaining funds.

The World Bank noted that Nigeria’s electricity sector continues to face deep-rooted structural challenges despite years of reforms and significant financial support.

The report stated that the sector still suffers from weak distribution performance, transmission bottlenecks, underutilisation of available generation capacity, and persistent financial imbalances.

According to the bank, high technical, commercial, and collection losses across the distribution segment, combined with inadequate cost recovery, have created a recurring mismatch between revenues generated by the sector and its actual operating costs.

“These constraints have created recurrent financing gaps, most notably in the form of tariff shortfalls, which generate liquidity pressures across the value chain and weaken the operational and financial performance of sector institutions,” the report said.

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The Federal Government developed the Power Sector Recovery Programme as a framework to restore the sector’s financial viability and reduce its fiscal burden on public finances.

The programme included plans to progressively eliminate tariff shortfalls, improve operational performance among power sector institutions, and strengthen regulatory oversight and accountability mechanisms.

According to the World Bank, implementation of the original operation delivered notable results. The report stated that tariff shortfalls fell by 71 per cent between 2019 and 2022, declining from N581bn to N166bn.

During the same period, regulatory cost recovery improved significantly from 56 per cent to 94 per cent, while annual electricity supplied to the distribution grid increased by 13 per cent between 2018 and 2021.

The bank said all standard disbursement-linked indicators and global indicators attached to the original programme were fully achieved. “Implementation of the parent operation was satisfactory, brought substantial results, and fully disbursed the PforR component as all DLRs were achieved,” the report stated.

Encouraged by those gains, the World Bank approved the additional financing package to address remaining structural weaknesses and deepen reforms under the Power Sector Recovery Programme.

The new facility was expected to support the development of a sustainable financing framework for the sector, improve operational performance through implementation of performance improvement plans, and strengthen governance arrangements among electricity institutions, particularly the Transmission Company of Nigeria.

However, the anticipated reforms failed to materialise within the expected timeframe. The World Bank attributed much of the setback to major macroeconomic developments that dramatically altered the operating environment.

According to the report, the liberalisation of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market in June 2023 triggered a sharp depreciation of the naira, leading to a substantial increase in the cost of natural gas used for electricity generation.

The bank explained that more than 70 per cent of electricity supplied into Nigeria’s national grid is generated using natural gas, whose pricing is denominated in United States dollars.

“The liberalisation of the foreign exchange market in June 2023 led to a significant depreciation of the local currency Naira, which resulted in a big increase in prices of natural gas used to produce above 70 per cent of electricity injected in the national power system,” the report stated.

At the same time, electricity tariffs for most consumers remained largely unchanged despite rising generation costs. The World Bank noted that electricity tariffs had effectively been frozen since early 2023, except for Band A customers, whose tariffs were adjusted to cost-reflective levels in April 2024.

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This widening gap between actual electricity production costs and revenues collected from consumers resulted in a sharp increase in tariff shortfalls. According to the report, annual tariff shortfalls rose from a low of N140bn in 2022 to approximately N1.9tn in both 2024 and 2025.

“Due to the mismatch between the electricity generation costs and the sector tariff revenues, the tariff shortfalls increased sharply in the last 3 years, moving from a low of N140bn in 2022 to a high of N1.9tn per year in 2024 and 2025, putting serious pressure on the limited Federal Government of Nigeria’s fiscal space,” the World Bank said.

The report explained that the sharp deterioration in sector finances prevented Nigeria from achieving key global indicators attached to the additional financing package.

The bank noted that the required indicators were not achieved in 2023, 2024 or 2025 because authorities failed to establish a credible and fiscally sustainable financing plan capable of addressing the growing tariff deficits.

According to the report, the absence of a comprehensive financing framework and a declining trajectory of tariff shortfalls made it impossible to satisfy major programme conditions.

The bank stated, “Recent financing plans have not fully identified sufficient sources of funding to cover tariff shortfalls, nor established a credible trajectory for their reduction.”

Apart from financing challenges, implementation delays also contributed to the programme’s difficulties. The World Bank cited delays in aligning performance improvement plans with eligible expenditures, particularly those involving the Transmission Company of Nigeria, as well as challenges linked to verification requirements for key sector institutions.

“These constraints have limited the ability to trigger disbursements even where elements of progress have been achieved,” the report stated.

As a result, broader disbursements under the additional financing arrangement failed to materialise as expected. The World Bank disclosed that overall implementation progress under the additional financing remained “Moderately Unsatisfactory.”

Financial data contained in the restructuring document illustrates the extent of the programme’s underperformance. Under the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development component, the World Bank had committed $449m. However, only $41.24m had been disbursed, leaving $407.76m undisbursed and a disbursement rate of just 9.18 per cent.

Under the International Development Association component, $754.82m had been disbursed out of a total commitment of $1.063bn, leaving $308.53m undisbursed. The bank further noted that while about 95 per cent of the parent operation had been successfully disbursed, only around nine per cent of the additional financing package had been released.

“Of the AF combination of a loan and a credit totalling $763.5m equivalent, only 9 per cent, corresponding to prior results of the PforR, have been disbursed,” the report stated.

The World Bank concluded that the programme’s original design had become increasingly misaligned with prevailing realities in Nigeria’s electricity sector. “Taken together, these developments point to a misalignment between the design of the operation and the evolving implementation context,” the report stated.

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According to the bank, achieving the programme’s objectives required coordinated progress across fiscal, policy, and operational dimensions, conditions that proved difficult to realise within the expected timeframe.

The Accountant-General of the Federation, Dr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, earlier warned that Nigeria may reject loan facilities from the World Bank if delays in approval and disbursement persist, saying prolonged timelines could undermine the country’s willingness to proceed with such arrangements.

The warning was contained in a press statement last week by the Director of Press and Public Relations at the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, Bawa Mokwa.

Ogunjimi, who spoke in Abuja during a courtesy visit by a World Bank delegation led by Mrs Treed Lane, stressed that Nigeria expects timely processing of funding requests, given that the facilities are loans and not grants.

He said, “If approvals take more than six months, the Nigerian Government may no longer honour such arrangements,” highlighting concerns over bureaucratic delays in accessing development financing.

The AGF noted that as a responsible borrower, Nigeria should not be subjected to prolonged approval processes that could affect project execution timelines and broader development objectives. He therefore urged the World Bank to “expedite the approval and disbursement of project funds to Nigeria” to support the country’s priorities.

Ogunjimi emphasised that the loans carry repayment obligations, making it imperative that disbursement processes align with project schedules and fiscal planning frameworks.

However, the Senior External Affairs Officer at the World Bank, Mansir Nasir, earlier told The PUNCH that funds for projects financed by the institution were not disbursed at once but in instalments, depending on the nature of the project and financing instruments.

The PUNCH further learnt that Nigeria retained its position as the International Development Association’s third-largest borrower in the first quarter of 2026, despite a slight decline in its exposure to the World Bank’s concessional lending arm from $18.7bn in December 2025 to $18.5bn as of March 31, 2026.

The latest IDA financial statements showed that only Bangladesh, with $22.7bn, and Pakistan, with $19.2bn, ranked ahead of Nigeria, whose exposure accounted for about eight per cent of the institution’s $230.8bn loan portfolio.

However, on a year-on-year basis, Nigeria’s exposure rose by $1.2bn, or 6.9 per cent, from $17.3bn in March 2025, underscoring the country’s continued reliance on concessional World Bank financing.

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Businesses expect CBN to hold rates as MPC meets today

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Organised Private Sector leaders and economists have projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee will most likely retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent when it meets on Monday and Tuesday, citing heightened geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on inflation.

The stakeholders noted that Nigerian businesses would welcome a rate cut to ease borrowing costs and support investment, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which has struggled under high interest rates.

Their position comes despite a recent CBN Inflation Expectations Survey showing that 61.1 per cent of Nigerians want interest rates reduced ahead of the MPC meeting.

In telephone interviews with The PUNCH, economists and business leaders, including the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said prevailing global uncertainties, particularly the renewed conflict involving the United States and Iran, made it too early for the apex bank to begin further monetary easing.

“What I expect is a hold because it is possibly too soon to relax the MPR because of the current geopolitical issues. We have seen a very dramatic escalation, and this has implications for major macroeconomic indicators, particularly the general price level. Energy prices feed strongly into inflationary pressures, and crude oil prices have risen above $84. The inflation outlook is looking very disturbing,” Yusuf said.

He added, “It is unlikely there will be a rate cut. It is also not likely that there will be a further increase because the last inflation figure showed only a marginal deceleration. Although I don’t mind a rate cut because interest rates are too high, given the prevailing global conditions, especially the Middle East conflict, people hoping for a rate cut should exercise more patience.”

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The President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said businesses would benefit significantly from lower borrowing costs, noting that high interest rates remained a major component of the cost of doing business.

“Everyone wants a reduced interest rate. Interest rate is a major part of the cost of doing business because everybody needs funds for their business. If the interest rate is high, the cost of business will be very high. The lower the interest rate, the better. It will allow businesses to plan and borrow money instead of relying on short-term loans that ultimately increase costs for consumers,” Kupoluyi said.

He, however, urged caution ahead of the MPC decision, saying, “Let’s see what they come up with. We have to look at it both ways. But definitely, for interest rates to come down, it is for the benefit of industry, businesses, and ultimately the customer.”

A Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, also predicted that the committee would likely maintain the current rate because of the uncertainty created by the US-Iran conflict.

“Many people would like a reduced interest rate because the MPR is the anchor rate for bank lending. But my worries are the US-Iran war. We don’t know when it is going to end. For that reason, I suspect they might keep the rate the same for a while,” Ekpo said.

He warned that the conflict could worsen inflationary pressures. “If I were with the MPC, I would hold the rate the way it is for now and wait for the next meeting. With the Iran-US war, inflation may go up. When inflation goes up, the MPC would be inclined to increase rates to contain inflation. The government should instead focus on the manufacturing sector so that we can create jobs,” he added.

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The Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, said while businesses and households desired lower interest rates, the MPC would likely base its decision on data unavailable to the public.

“Every reasonable person wants to see lower interest rates. We have seen stable exchange rates, and inflation has hovered around 15 per cent for six months. But the committee will determine whether this is the right time to ease policy. I don’t have access to the information they have, so I will wait for them to explain whatever decision they take,” Teriba said.

He noted that the conflict in the Middle East had not significantly altered Nigeria’s inflation trend so far but cautioned against pre-empting the committee’s decision. “I’d like to see the monetary policy rate and the CRR come down, but I accept my limitation that I don’t have access to the information available to the MPC. I will wait to be informed by them,” Teriba said.

Businesses have repeatedly argued that high borrowing costs have constrained investment, especially in the manufacturing sector, where operators say access to affordable long-term credit remains critical for expansion, job creation and increased production.

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States pocket N2.37tn VAT under new tax regime

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State governments received N2.37tn from Value Added Tax revenue generated in the first half of 2026, representing an increase of N451.25bn compared with the corresponding period of 2025, an analysis by The PUNCH has shown.

The figure indicates that states’ VAT allocation rose by 23.48 per cent from N1.92tn in the first six months of 2025, according to Federation Account Allocation Committee reports and data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation collated by The PUNCH on Sunday.

The analysis covered VAT generated from January to June 2026, although the proceeds were distributed at FAAC meetings held between February and July. Under the FAAC arrangement, revenue earned in a particular month is shared among the three tiers of government in the following month. This means that January revenue was distributed in February, while June revenue was shared in July.

A total of N4.31tn in distributable VAT revenue was shared among the Federal Government, states and local government councils during the first half of 2026. This was N471.07bn, or 12.26 per cent, higher than the N3.84tn distributed in the corresponding period of 2025.

The H1 2026 distributable VAT pool accounted for 33.09 per cent of the N13.04tn total distributable federation revenue shared during the six-month period.

In comparison, VAT represented about 37.99 per cent of the N10.12tn shared in the first half of 2025. This means that although VAT revenue increased in absolute terms in 2026, its share of total FAAC distributions declined because statutory and other federation revenues grew at a faster pace.

The N13.04tn shared from revenue generated between January and June 2026 was N2.92tn, or 28.86 per cent, above the N10.12tn distributed from revenue generated in the corresponding period of 2025.

The rise in states’ VAT receipts was driven by higher distributable VAT collections in four of the six months and the implementation of a new vertical sharing formula that increased the collective share allocated to states.

Before the commencement of the new tax regime on January 1, 2026, distributable VAT was shared 15 per cent to the Federal Government, 50 per cent to states, and 35 per cent to local government councils.

Under the new tax laws, the Federal Government’s share was reduced to 10 per cent, while the states’ portion increased to 55 per cent. The local governments’ allocation remained unchanged at 35 per cent.

The tax reforms took effect as scheduled from January 1, 2026, following the signing of the new tax laws in June 2025. The adjustment transferred five percentage points of the distributable VAT pool from the Federal Government to the states.

Based on the N4.31tn VAT distributed in H1 2026, the Federal Government gave up about N215.72bn to the states because of the change in the formula.

Had the previous 15 per cent formula remained in place, the Federal Government would have received about N647.15bn from the H1 VAT pool. Under the current 10 per cent allocation, its expected share was about N431.43bn.

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States would have collectively received N2.16tn under the old 50 per cent formula. However, the current 55 per cent allocation raised their share to about N2.37tn, giving them an additional N215.72bn.

The local governments’ 35 per cent share was unaffected by the adjustment. They received about N1.51tn from the distributable VAT pool during the six months.

In January 2026, whose revenue was distributed in February, states received N551.77bn from VAT. This was the highest monthly VAT allocation to states in the first half of the year. The amount was N192.38bn, or 53.53 per cent, higher than the N359.39bn allocated to states from January 2025 VAT revenue.

The distributable VAT pool for January 2026 stood at about N1tn, against N718.78bn in January 2025, representing an increase of N284.44bn, or 39.57 per cent.

The January VAT surge was followed by a decline in February. States received N340.52bn from February 2026 VAT revenue, which was shared in March. This represented a month-on-month fall of N211.26bn, or 38.29 per cent, from the January allocation.

Despite the monthly reduction, the February figure was N35.80bn, or 11.75 per cent, higher than the N304.72bn received by states from VAT generated in February 2025.

FAAC distributed N619.12bn in VAT revenue for February 2026, compared with N609.43bn in the corresponding month of 2025. The distributable pool therefore increased by N9.69bn, or 1.59 per cent, year on year.

States’ VAT allocation declined further to N283.47bn from March 2026 revenue, which was shared at the April FAAC meeting.

The March amount was N57.05bn, or 16.75 per cent, below the February allocation. It was also N13.41bn, or 4.52 per cent, lower than the N296.88bn received from March 2025 VAT revenue.

The total distributable VAT revenue for March 2026 fell to N515.39bn, down by N78.36bn, or 13.20 per cent, from N593.75bn in March 2025. The trend changed in April, when states received N410.90bn from VAT revenue shared in May. This represented a month-on-month increase of N127.43bn, or 44.96 per cent, from the March figure.

Compared with the N299.04bn allocated from April 2025 VAT revenue, the April 2026 figure rose by N111.86bn, or 37.41 per cent. The distributable VAT pool increased to N747.09bn in April 2026, from N598.08bn in the corresponding month of 2025. This amounted to a year-on-year increase of N149.01bn, or 24.92 per cent.

The OAGF said gross VAT revenue increased to N806.62bn in April from N664.43bn in March, reflecting increased collections before deductions for collection costs and other adjustments. States received N378.83bn from May 2026 VAT revenue distributed in June. This was N32.07bn, or 7.80 per cent, lower than the April allocation.

On a year-on-year basis, however, the amount was N32.98bn, or 9.53 per cent, higher than the N345.86bn received from VAT generated in May 2025. The May 2026 distributable VAT pool stood at N688.79bn, marginally below the N691.71bn recorded in May 2025. The N2.93bn difference represented a decline of 0.42 per cent.

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In June, states’ VAT receipts recovered to N407.40bn. The revenue, shared in July, was N28.57bn, or 7.54 per cent, higher than the May allocation. It also exceeded the N315.75bn received from VAT generated in June 2025 by N91.64bn, representing an increase of 29.02 per cent.

The distributable VAT pool for June 2026 rose to N740.72bn, up by N109.22bn, or 17.29 per cent, from N631.51bn in June 2025. The monthly pattern showed that states received more VAT revenue year on year in January, February, April, May, and June. March was the only month in which their VAT allocation fell below the corresponding 2025 level.

Beyond VAT, the three tiers also benefited from increased overall FAAC distributions during the first half of the year. The Federal Government received N4.57tn from revenue generated between January and June 2026. This was N1.17tn, or 34.47 per cent, above the N3.40tn allocated to it in the corresponding period of 2025.

The Federal Government’s monthly allocations were N577.91bn from January revenue, N675.09bn in February, N789.16bn in March, N787.35bn in April, N818.68bn in May and N923.44bn in June.

Its allocation rose during most of the period despite the reduction in its VAT share because statutory federation revenue and other components of the distributable pool increased.

State governments received a total of N4.47tn in general FAAC allocations during H1 2026, excluding the separate 13 per cent derivation payments to oil-producing states. This represented an increase of N1.05tn, or 30.58 per cent, over the N3.43tn received by the states during the first half of 2025.

Their monthly general allocations stood at N794.01bn from January revenue, N651.53bn in February, N657.60bn in March, N772.36bn in April, N759.14bn in May, and N838.21bn in June.

Local government councils received N3.13tn during the six-month period, up from N2.50tn in H1 2025. This represented an increase of N625.42bn, or 24.98 per cent.

Their monthly allocations were N537.88bn from January revenue, N456.47bn in February, N468.83bn in March, N540.15bn in April, N534.28bn in May, and N591.39bn in June.

Oil-producing states also received N864.89bn as 13 per cent mineral revenue derivation during H1 2026. The amount was N73.57bn, or 9.30 per cent, higher than the N791.33bn paid as derivation revenue in the corresponding period of 2025.

The monthly derivation payments rose from N90.19bn in January to N110.95bn in February and N120.76bn in March. They increased to N157.25bn in April, N188.13bn in May, and N197.61bn in June. The figures show that the new VAT formula delivered an immediate gain to states while reducing the Federal Government’s claim on consumption tax revenue.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Nigeria Economic Summit Group warned that the Federal Government could face revenue shortfalls if it does not increase the value-added tax rate as part of the ongoing tax reform process.

The Chief Executive Officer of NESG, Dr Tayo Aduloju, made this statement during an interactive media session in Abuja. He emphasised that while reforms to the VAT system are essential, maintaining the current VAT rate without an increase could result in a significant loss of revenue for the government.

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According to him, simply reducing the number of taxes without adjusting the VAT rate could weaken the government’s revenue base.

Also, in its 2025 Consultation Report on Nigeria, the International Monetary Fund noted that although the recent tax reforms approved by the National Assembly and President Bola Tinubu represent a major step forward in modernising the VAT and Company Income Tax regimes, the choice to maintain the current VAT rate would lead to an immediate revenue shortfall.

It stated that the Federal Government may lose as much as 0.5 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product in revenue following its decision not to raise the VAT rate.

According to the Fund, unless alternative financing options are found, subnational governments may be forced to either scale back spending or ramp up their own revenue efforts. The IMF, however, acknowledged the government’s justification for delaying a VAT hike, particularly at a time of worsening poverty and food insecurity.

Speaking earlier at the launch of the BudgIT State of States 2025 Report in Abuja, where he delivered the keynote address, the current Minister of Finance and the Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, projected that states could earn more than N4tn annually from 2026 when new Value Added Tax reforms take effect.

He said, “With VAT reforms kicking in from 2026, states’ share will rise to 55 per cent. That could amount to over N4tn in 2026. The question is: will this money be spent, or will it be invested?”

Economic analysts earlier called on state governments to intensify efforts to unlock internal revenue as their allocations under the revised sharing formula increase.

A former Chairman of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Prof Segun Ajibola, called for transparency in the use of the increased allocations, adding, “If a state government wants to be accountable, each state government should set up a desk to account for the increase in the VAT allocation and make the report known to the public. There is so much to spend on agriculture and other public utilities.”

Also, the Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, earlier said VAT historically replaced state sales tax and originally belonged to states. “The tax belonged to the states. It is for ease of collection that the federal government decides to collect on behalf of the states,” Teriba noted.

He further cautioned states against overdependence on statutory allocations, advising, “Not to make a mountain out of a molehill (as) these are smaller amounts for the states.”

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Marketers halt Dangote fuel loading, FG steps in on Dollar sale row

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Marketers of petroleum products have stated that the loading of fuel has been put on hold at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery following the facility’s decision to sell fuel in dollars.

Many marketers told The PUNCH on Sunday that the facility was not even loading its trucks, sparking fear of possible fuel tightness across the country. But the refinery denied the claim, arguing that fuel loading was ongoing within the Lekki-based plant.

Petroleum marketers said they suspended large-scale fuel loading in the last few days as they await clarity on the new pricing template being adopted by the refinery. They also await the cost of newly imported petroleum products.

The development heightened uncertainty in the downstream petroleum sector, with marketers wary of buying large volumes of petrol at the prevailing prices only to see the cost of the product fall shortly after.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, in a telephone interview on Sunday, said marketers were being forced to adopt a cautious approach because of the uncertainty surrounding the next price of petrol.

“The issue is simple; marketers are not buying because they are trying to look at the market dynamics. Whatever we are using today is existing products in tank farms, which we are buying around N1,250 and N1,300,” Ukadike said.

He said the uncertainty had been worsened by the expected arrival of new crude supplies and imported petrol, whose pricing templates remained unclear.

“The problem we are now facing is that this new crude oil that they are bringing- what will be the template? Also, those who have brought in petroleum products and are given licences are also estimated to place their price at N1,350, which marketers are also wary of,” he stated.

Ukadike said marketers were therefore reluctant to load large volumes because they could not predict whether the price of petrol would rise or fall after they had purchased the product.

“So everyone is just sceptical about loading products because when you load, you don’t know the next price, if it is going to reduce or go higher. You are still expected by consumers to sell at the prevailing price,” he said.

According to him, the uncertainty has not completely halted the distribution of petrol, but has significantly reduced the volume being loaded by marketers.

He urged the Federal Government to intervene and resolve the dispute over the pricing template, warning that continued uncertainty could further disrupt the downstream market. “The Federal Government has to look inward and resolve this issue once and for all. This template issue should be resolved immediately,” Ukadike said.

In a report by NAN, marketers in the South-West confirmed that the uncertainty over petrol prices has forced many to halt fresh purchases, leading to the temporary closure of some filling stations.

The Zonal Chairman of IPMAN, Western Zone, Oyewole Akanni, disclosed this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria on Sunday in Ibadan. Akanni said the situation was triggered by the suspension of loading of Premium Motor Spirit at the Dangote refinery about four days ago.

He said the development had forced marketers to source products from private depots at significantly higher prices. According to him, the cheapest ex-depot price at private depots in Lagos currently ranges between N1,200 and N1,220 per litre, excluding transportation costs.

He added that marketers who bought products on Friday paid between N1,210 and N1,220 per litre. “The non-availability of fuel at some filling stations and the closure of others are due to fluctuations in the price of lifting fuel from depots.

“Since the Dangote refinery stopped selling PMS about four days ago, private depot owners have increased their prices. Many filling stations that have exhausted their stock are waiting to see whether prices will come down when the Dangote refinery resumes sales or increase further. Only a few marketers are buying products for now because of the uncertainty,” he said.

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Akanni, however, maintained that there was no fuel scarcity, urging motorists and other consumers not to engage in panic buying. “There is no fuel scarcity. Members of the public should not panic. Although there is a possibility of an increase in the pump price if the current situation persists,” he said.

The zonal chairman said the Dangote refinery neither gave prior notice nor explained the reason for the suspension of PMS sales to marketers. Akanni said four truckloads of petrol meant for his filling stations had remained at the refinery since the suspension of loading.

“I was supposed to have received four truckloads of PMS four days ago, but that has not happened because the trucks are at the Dangote refinery, which has not been selling. The company is not even loading its own trucks. They are all parked there,” he said.

The IPMAN chief said the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited was also affected because it sourced products from the Dangote Refinery. According to him, private depots are now selling PMS for as much as N1,250 per litre, while marketers can obtain products from NIPCO and Aiteo at about N1,200 per litre.

“The major issue now is the fluctuation in depot prices, which has created uncertainty in the market,” Akanni said.

Official denies claim

However, a spokesman for the Dangote Group dismissed the report as “fake news”, accusing some marketers of spreading false information. The spokesman told one of our correspondents that the refinery had not stopped loading petroleum products.

“The refinery is loading. Anybody can go there to check. That’s fake news to say we are not loading,” the official, who pleaded not to have his name in print due to the sensitive nature of the matter, stated.

He noted that marketers importing petrol were finding it difficult to compete because prices in Lomé, Togo, had risen, making it increasingly difficult to match Dangote’s prices.

FG vs Dangote

The PUNCH reports that the Federal Government and the Dangote Petroleum Refinery have yet to reach an agreement on the issues that prompted the refinery to adopt a dollar-based pricing template, a development that could prolong uncertainty in the downstream petroleum sector and lead to a further increase in the price of Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol.

A senior government official involved in the ongoing discussions revealed on Sunday. The PUNCH gathered that the ongoing standoff is caused by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery grievance on the continued issuance of import licences to marketers and a row on the modalities of crude oil supply.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations, said the dispute had gone beyond the price of petrol, stressing that it was also linked to the volume of crude supplied to the refinery and the proportion of crude sold to it in naira.

According to the official, the refinery has been unhappy with the Federal Government over the continued issuance of import licences to some oil marketers despite its ability to refine large volumes of petrol for the domestic market.

The official said Dangote was also dissatisfied with the volume of crude supplied to the refinery by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, as well as the relatively small proportion of the crude purchased in naira.

“So the issue is that Dangote is unhappy about two things; one is that the government gave import permits. They issued import permits to some companies while his refinery is capable. So he was already angry on that level.

“Then number two is that the refinery is saying that it is not getting enough crude oil even from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. The percentage of naira for crude that they are giving to the facility is not a lot.

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“Number one is that the facility is still not getting enough, according to him. And number two is that the portion they are selling to him in naira is still a little. So he still has to do most purchases in dollars. So the facility is saying that if the government cannot increase the crude they are giving to him in naira, the new dollar pricing template is what he will do. So those are the two issues.”

This movement has raised fresh concerns over the stability of petrol prices, with the refinery’s decision to price its products in dollars potentially exposing domestic fuel prices to movements in the foreign exchange market.

Already, this uncertainty over petrol prices has forced many marketers to halt fresh purchases, leading to the temporary closure of some filling stations, according to the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria.

The official said the Federal Government had continued to engage the refinery’s management in a bid to prevent the dispute from escalating. He, however, warned that the government could not allow any single player to hold the country to ransom by demanding restrictions on imports while the parties continued to disagree over crude supply and pricing.

“The government has been discussing this matter. He said he was going to do this (dollar sale of fuel). He said this two weeks ago. And the government was asking for patience. Let us keep engaging now. So now that the new dollar pricing template has been done, the government will still keep engaging,” the official said.

The official also argued that the Dangote refinery’s location within a free trade zone gave it considerable flexibility in determining how it conducted its commercial operations, including the currency in which it sold its products.

“Unfortunately, the facility is in a free trade zone, so the refinery is actually allowed to sell in any currency it wants to sell. The refinery is in a free trade zone. And there are so many taxes not paid,” he said.

“Yes, the refinery still pays, but there are a lot of taxes the refinery is excluded from, because it is in a free trade zone. Those are the benefits you get when you are in a free trade zone.”

FCCPC rejects dollar

However, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission has said the naira remains Nigeria’s only lawful currency for domestic commercial transactions, amid reports that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is considering pricing petroleum products in US dollars.

The Director of Corporate Affairs, FCCPC, Ondaje Ijagwu, stated this in a response to enquiries on Sunday. On the reported proposal to price petroleum products in dollars, Ijagwu said, “The commission’s position is clear. The Nigerian naira is the legal tender in Nigeria and remains the lawful currency for domestic commercial transactions.”

On what would be the government’s next step if an agreement is not reached, the top official said, “If there is no agreement and he does not want to listen, the next step will be to allow more imports to come in. It is not possible to hold anybody to ransom

“Cement remains a good case study. The government banned cement importation. Has the cement price gone down? No. This is clear. So, why will he bring it down? He already controls the market. He’s not going to bring it down. So, that’s it.”

The official said Nigeria had imported petrol for decades and could continue to do so if necessary to guarantee adequate supply and prevent a monopoly in the downstream market. “This country has been importing petrol for over 35 years. The world did not stop,” he said.

The warning comes amid a legal challenge by three major oil marketers, Matrix Energy Group, AA Rano Nigeria and AYM Shafa Holdings, over the continued issuance and renewal of licences for the importation of petroleum products.

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According to a report by African Intelligence, the companies are seeking an order of the Federal High Court in Abuja directing the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to continue granting, issuing, extending, renewing or re-issuing licences, permits and authorisations for midstream and downstream operations relating to petroleum product imports.

The marketers argued that they had invested billions of dollars in storage, logistics, and distribution infrastructure and had played a major role in supplying petroleum products to Nigerians for decades.

Their legal action has further complicated the Federal Government’s attempt to balance the protection of domestic refining.

The government official said the legal action was significant because the government could not simply prevent marketers from importing products if domestic supply was insufficient or if the courts ordered regulators to continue issuing the relevant licences.

“Already, some people have gone to court to try to stop the government from banning the importation of petrol. I hope you are aware. So, in case the government wants to bend to Dangote’s will, some marketers have gone to court to get a court order banning the government from stopping imports,” he said.

The official added that the government could not simply sell all crude to domestic refiners in naira without considering the foreign exchange implications.

“So this is the issue. What’s our main source of foreign exchange? It’s still crude. And where is it coming from? Royalty and crude sales. So NNPC is the one that is bringing in these things. So if they then sell everything in naira, where is the dollar going to come from to do other things?” he asked.

The official said the refinery had previously been receiving a significant portion of its crude supply in naira, although the government had to balance the arrangement against its own foreign exchange requirements.

“The last time it was checked, the refinery was getting at least 35 per cent to 40 per cent of its crude in naira of what was being sold to him. Because where will the country then get the dollar from if everything is sold in dollars?” he said.

The official said the Federal Government’s attempt to prevent the refinery from adopting a dollar-based pricing model had therefore not fully resolved the underlying dispute.

“At the end of the day, what the government was trying to avoid is still the same thing that has happened. He had been threatening before it was done, but engagement continues,” he said.

Speaking further, the FCCPC also expressed concern that the recent decline in international crude oil prices had not been reflected proportionately in the prices of petrol sold to consumers.

According to the FCCPC director, “The FCCPC remains concerned that recent declines in international crude oil prices have not been reflected proportionately in retail petrol prices. As the commission stated in its 28 June public statement, pump prices increased rapidly when crude oil prices rose, yet the subsequent decline in international crude oil prices has not translated into corresponding reductions for consumers.”

Ijagwu said the commission’s concerns had prompted the Federal Government to convene a stakeholders’ meeting involving regulators, refiners, marketers and other participants in the petroleum industry.

Ijagwu added, “The commission stands by this position and expects that, within a reasonable period, the benefits of lower international crude oil prices will be reflected in corresponding reductions in pump prices where market conditions justify such adjustments.

“The FCCPC will continue to monitor developments closely and will not hesitate to take appropriate enforcement action where there is credible evidence of anti-competitive conduct, consumer exploitation or any other contravention of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act.”

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