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FG eyes N796bn annually from 5% petrol surcharge

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• Consumers decry new fuel tax after subsidy removal as law begins Jan. 2026

The Federal Government may rake in N796bn annually from the introduction of a five per cent surcharge on locally produced and imported petrol, based on its new tax policy slated to take effect from January 1, 2026.

The five per cent surcharge on refined petroleum products is contained in the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, one of four tax reform bills signed into law by President Bola Tinubu on June 26, 2025. Our correspondent obtained a copy of the Act on Wednesday.

However, consumers have opposed the move, stressing that the government had earlier removed fuel subsidies and now plots to impose a five per cent surcharge on fuel, without considering the harsh economic realities nationwide.

This came as oil marketers stated that the five per cent surcharge may further hike the pump prices of refined petroleum products.

The surcharge forms part of government efforts to shore up non-oil revenues and promote fiscal sustainability amid mounting public debt and subsidy-related costs. The policy targets fossil fuel products provided or produced in Nigeria.

Fossil fuel products include petrol, diesel, kerosene, aviation fuel, and Compressed Natural Gas, among others. They are derived from the processing of fossil fuels such as coal, petroleum, and natural gas.

However, items exempted from the new tax are clean or renewable energy products, as well as household kerosene, cooking gas, and Compressed Natural Gas.

Findings by The PUNCH showed that the government would garner about N796bn annually from only petrol once the five per cent surcharge takes effect.

An analysis by our correspondent, using the volume of imported and refined petrol, showed that the government could earn N796bn based on the 2024 estimates of national consumption and refining capacity production data provided by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

This N796bn is purely for petrol and doesn’t include other fossil fuel derivatives such as diesel and aviation fuel.

A breakdown of data from the NMDPRA shows that the total volume of petrol consumed by Nigerians reached 18.75 billion litres in 2024. NMDPRA, an agency of the Federal Government, is the mid- and downstream regulator of the oil and gas industry.

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The 18.75 billion litres of petrol translates to about N15.93tn, using the average price of N850 for a litre of petrol consumed in Nigeria during the review period. Five per cent of N15.93tn represents N796bn, which is the sum that the Federal Government may rake in annually from only petrol once it implements the planned surcharge.

This, therefore, implies that the government’s earnings from the proposed surcharge on fossil fuel products (petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel) would be more than N796bn once the five per cent surcharge policy on refined petroleum products takes effect, after being approved by the Minister of Finance, as stated in the Act.

According to the law, the surcharge will be imposed on all “chargeable fossil fuel products” and will be calculated based on the retail price of the product. The Act stipulates that the surcharge will apply to a “chargeable transaction” such as the supply, sale, or payment for the product, “whichever occurs first”.

The law read in part, “A surcharge is imposed at five per cent on chargeable fossil fuel products provided or produced in Nigeria, and shall be collected at the time a chargeable transaction occurs.

“(1) For the purpose of imposing a surcharge on fossil fuel products, the chargeable transaction shall be the supply, sale, or payment, whichever occurs first. (2) Surcharge shall be computed based on the retail price of all chargeable fossil fuel products.”

The implementation date, however, remains undecided and is now subject to the approval of the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun. “The minister may, by an Order issued in the Official Gazette, indicate the effective date of commencement of the administration of the surcharge on fossil fuel products under this Chapter,” the Act said.

“The Service shall administer and collect the surcharge every month and may issue regulations for its administration,” a section of the Act reads. A surcharge is an additional fee or tax added to the price of a good or service beyond the base price.

The law tasks the Federal Inland Revenue Service, which will be renamed the Nigeria Revenue Service by 2026, with administering and collecting the surcharge every month. It also empowers the agency to issue further regulations for effective implementation.

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It further stated, “The surcharge under this Chapter shall not apply to the following fossil fuel products: (a) clean or renewable energy products; (b) household kerosene; (c) cooking gas; and (d) Compressed Natural Gas.

“(2) For the purpose of this section, ‘clean or renewable energy’ means energy from solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, or plant and animal waste, which are naturally replenishing, produce little or no environmental pollution or greenhouse gas emissions, and do not deplete over time.”

The Nigeria Tax Act is one of four tax laws signed into law by President Tinubu to overhaul the country’s tax framework. The others include the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Law, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, and the Nigeria Tax Administration Act.

The laws are aimed at enhancing revenue collection efficiency, promoting fiscal transparency, and supporting the implementation of Nigeria’s medium-term revenue strategy.

With rising government borrowing and growing fiscal pressures, the surcharge is expected to form part of new efforts to boost non-oil revenue, though its real impact will depend largely on how and when it is implemented.

Consumers kick

However, marketers, transport workers, farmers, human rights advocates, and civil society groups across Nigeria have raised opposition to the proposed implementation of the five per cent users’ charge on petrol and diesel pump prices.

The National Chairman of the Joint Drivers Welfare Association, Akintade Abiodun, accused the government of using Nigerians as “lab rats” for unpopular economic decisions.

The Association of Nigerian Refineries Petroleum Marketers also raised an alarm recently over the Federal Government’s plan to enforce a five per cent user charge on fuel pump prices through the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency, warning of severe operational and economic consequences for marketers and consumers.

The association’s National Chairman of the Board of Trustees, Usman Ali, disclosed this at a press conference. The association acknowledged the past failures of the subsidy system, which it described as riddled with corruption, inefficiency, and massive fiscal leakages.

It warned that the removal of the subsidy must be matched with robust regulatory frameworks to avoid a resurgence of malpractice in the downstream sector. The association called for digital tracking systems, transparent procurement procedures, and effective enforcement to improve accountability and reduce losses

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The association, however, expressed conditional support for the proposed levy, stating that while improving Nigeria’s road infrastructure was necessary, the charge must be implemented with caution and tied to visible and immediate road rehabilitation.

“The powers that be in this country are taking us for a ride. They think we won’t react just because we were quiet the last time they increased fuel. Now they want to add another cost on top of the already expensive pump price. This must be reversed,” he said.

On its part, the Chancellor of the International Society for Social Justice and Human Rights, Jackson Omenazu, chided the government for pursuing policies that are “anti-people.” He warned that growing public frustration could explode if authorities continue to ignore the sufferings of citizens.

Omenazu said, “How can lawmakers sit in the comfort of their offices, after increasing their own allowances, to approve policies that will send poor Nigerians to early graves? What kind of leadership is this?

IPMAN reacts

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria has warned that the five per cent surcharge on petroleum products may lead to an increase in the pump price of fuel across the country.

The association explained that although the new levy would be factored into the pre-pricing structure by industry players such as refineries and marketers, the financial impact would eventually be transferred to consumers.

National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Chief Chinedu Ukadike, who spoke in an interview with The PUNCH on Wednesday, said the development could complicate Nigeria’s already fragile downstream pricing environment.

“The only implication is that industry players like the refineries will add it to their pre-pricing costs, but not post-pricing costs,” Ukadike said. “But indirectly, it would also lead to an increase in the pump price.” He said the association is closely monitoring how the policy will be implemented.

According to him, “Any additional charge on the cost of importation or refining of petroleum products will, by extension, reflect in the final retail price. This is because marketers operate on thin margins and cannot absorb such levies without a ripple effect.”

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NNPC urged to revive refineries after Dangote snub

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The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, has tackled the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) over its attempt to increase its stake in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery despite the poor state of government-owned refineries.

Ukadike stated this while reacting to comments by the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, that the refinery rejected requests by the NNPC to increase its 7.25 per cent stake in the $20bn facility.

Dangote had disclosed this during an interview with the Chief Executive Officer of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, Nicolai Tangen, monitored by our correspondents on Wednesday.

Reacting to the development, Ukadike questioned why the national oil company was seeking to invest more funds in the privately-owned refinery when the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries under its control had remained largely inactive despite billions of dollars spent on rehabilitation.

“Why is NNPC trying to invest money in the Dangote refinery when it has three refineries that are not working? Why is NNPC not investing that money in those ones?” Ukadike asked.

He added, “The NNPC did not revive our refineries, but they want to look for where the refinery is already working to put money into it. Does that make sense?”

The IPMAN spokesman said Dangote had the right to reject the offer from the NNPC if he considered it unsuitable for his business interests.

“If Dangote refused to sell more stakes to NNPC, he must have his reasons. Dangote is a businessman. He doesn’t want issues, unnecessary crises, and nepotism. He knows what he wants, and I also think he has enough cash to fund his business,” he stated.

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Ukadike further urged the national oil company to focus on reviving critical oil infrastructure across the country instead of pursuing additional ownership of the refinery. “The NNPC should repair the pipelines and revive the refineries instead of eyeing the Dangote refinery,” he said.

Dangote had stated during the interview that the NNPC was interested in acquiring more shares in the refinery after previously purchasing a 7.25 per cent stake for $1bn in 2021. According to him, the request was rejected because the company planned to list the refinery publicly and allow more Nigerians to own shares in the project.

“The other biggest risk is government inconsistencies in policies, and we are addressing that one because if you look at our refinery, the national oil company already owns 7.25 per cent, and they are trying to buy more. We are the ones that said no; we want to now spread it and have everybody be part of it,” Dangote said.

The NNPC had initially planned to acquire a 20 per cent stake in the refinery, but later reduced its ownership to 7.25 per cent after failing to pay the balance before the June 2024 deadline.

Dangote had explained this in 2024, saying, “The agreement was actually 20 per cent, which we had with NNPC, and they did not pay the balance of the money up until last year; then we gave them another extension up until June (2024), and they said that they would remain where they had already paid, which is 7.2 per cent. So NNPC owns only 7.2 per cent, not 20 per cent.”

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However, a stakeholder in the petroleum sector who pleaded for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter held that the interest of the nation is well served by NNPC having a 20 per cent stake in the Dangote refinery.

“I think Nigeria is better served by NNPC being a shareholder. If NNPC could have taken 20 per cent of that refinery, Nigeria as a country would be better served,” the stakeholder said.

According to him, the fact that the NNPC failed to get the 20 per cent take before does not mean it could not get it again. He said Dangote refused NNPC’s offer because he wants to remain in control.

“You know Dangote is planning to value his company at $50bn. I think he’s going to sell 10 per cent only, so he remains in control, making a lot of money for himself. Selling only 10 per cent means he has 90 per cent. If NNPC were there with 20 per cent, then NNPC would have two directors. These two directors would have some say,” he said.

The stakeholder added that such an important asset cannot exist in a country without the government’s involvement.

“You can’t have such a big asset in the country, and then the government or the government’s agent has no say in the decisions of that company. It can’t happen. It’s wrong. I’m not saying the government must have a say in all the big companies, but in a company that is so big that it can influence whether the sun rises or falls in that country, the government must have a say.

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“The refinery is big. In any case, NNPC is also the supplier of last resort. It’s the national oil company. That has some meaning. I think that in the best interest of the country, if we all agree that Dangote is too big to fail, then it means that Nigerians as a people need to be inside the Dangote refinery to make sure it does not fail,” the operator said.

Meanwhile, a senior official of the NNPC said the NNPC is proud of its current stake in the Dangote refinery.

“The NNPC is proud and happy that we own a 7.2 per cent stake in Dangote. And whatever we own as a stake in Dangote as a national oil company is on behalf of the entire Nigeria. So, when the opportunity presents itself in the long term, yes.

“But right now, we are proud of the 7.2 per cent stake we own in the Dangote refinery. Apart from that, the quality and level of collaboration that is currently going on between NNPC and Dangote is in the interest of the entire Nigeria,” the official said, begging not to be mentioned because he was not authorised to speak on the matter.

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2027 poll spending may trigger inflation, MPC warns

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Members of the Monetary Policy Committee have warned that rising political and election-related spending ahead of the 2027 general elections could undermine the country’s disinflation gains and trigger fresh inflationary pressures.

The warnings were contained in the personal statements of MPC members released by the apex bank and obtained by The PUNCH on Thursday. The MPC, at its 304th meeting held on February 23 and 24, 2026, reduced the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points from 27 per cent to 26.5 per cent, while retaining other key monetary parameters.

CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, had earlier warned in the MPC communiqué that election-related fiscal spending could threaten the inflation outlook despite the current moderation in prices.

According to the communiqué signed by Cardoso, “The outlook indicates that the current momentum of domestic disinflation will continue in the near term. This is premised on the lagged impact of previous monetary policy tightening, sustained stability in the foreign exchange market and improved food supply. However, increased fiscal releases including election-related spending could pose upside risk to the outlook.”

Also, in his personal statement, he noted “Growing fiscal pressures, from reduced government fiscal headroom and the approaching 2027 election cycle, warrant particular attention given the well-established link between pre-election fiscal expansion and inflation.”

CBN Deputy Governor for Economic Policy, Dr Muhammad Abdullahi, also highlighted election-related spending as a major risk to the inflation outlook. He said, “As political activities intensify ahead of the 2027 elections, increased fiscal injections and consumption spending could elevate demand-side inflation.”

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Abdullahi added that “the fiscal deficit has already increased significantly, and election-related spending is likely to exacerbate this trend in 2026 and early 2027.” According to him, stronger fiscal-monetary coordination would be needed to manage the liquidity impact of rising government spending.

Similarly, the CBN Deputy Governor for Operations, Emem Usoro, warned that the pre-election environment could worsen liquidity conditions and inflation expectations. Usoro stated, “Crucially, the pre-election environment increases the risk of liquidity surges, higher FX demand and a drift in inflation expectations.”

She added that the risks justified maintaining tight liquidity conditions despite the moderate rate cut. According to her, “These considerations support small, cautious adjustments and the retention of strong liquidity and prudential buffers.”

Also raising concerns was the newly appointed Deputy Governor, Lamido Yuguda, who said increased fiscal releases and election spending could disrupt the disinflation trend.

Yuguda, who was a former Director General of the Securities and Exchange Commission, noted, “The 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public deposits remains critical, particularly given the potential for increased fiscal releases as implementation of Executive Order 9 advances.”

He further warned that, “Potential increases in fiscal spending associated with the electoral cycle could generate demand pressures and disrupt the disinflation trajectory.”

A member of the MPC, Dr Aloysius Ordu, warned that political spending tied to the elections could put pressure on foreign exchange demand and test the resilience of the economy. He said, “Domestically, rising political spending and FX demand pressures associated with the 2027 elections will test the resilience of the economy.”

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Ordu added that although reforms such as Executive Order 9 were expected to improve fiscal transparency and strengthen reserves, high debt servicing costs and political-cycle spending remained major concerns for macroeconomic management.

Another MPC member, Bandele Amoo, also expressed concern over excess liquidity from fiscal injections and early political activities ahead of the elections. He said, “My primary concern is the persistence of excess liquidity from fiscal injections, which could undermine disinflation gains and exchange rate stability.”

Amoo further noted that “fiscal spending pressures linked to the 2026 budget cycle, and early political activities ahead of the 2027 elections may heighten risks.”

Another committee member, Professor Murtala Sagagi, said the main domestic risks to inflation included fiscal slippages and election-related spending. He said, “Upside risks to the inflation outlook warrant monitoring, particularly increased fiscal releases including election-related spending and any pass-through from global oil price volatility to domestic fuel prices.”

Sagagi added that “the primary domestic risks are fiscal slippage and the possibility of election-related spending which are medium-term in nature.” He urged stronger fiscal discipline and closer coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities.

The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to hold on Tuesday, May 19 and Wednesday, May 20, 2026. This would be about four days after the National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release the country’s Consumer Price Index report for April 2026 on May 15.

Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 15.38 per cent in March 2026, marking a reversal in the recent easing trend, as increases in food, transport, and accommodation costs pushed prices higher. The PUNCH observed that this was the first time the headline inflation rate had increased since March 2025.

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In its Inflation Forecast report for April 2026, the Financial Market Dealers Association projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation would rise to 16.42 per cent year-on-year in April 2026, as sustained pressure from food prices, higher energy costs and elevated global commodity prices continue to shape the domestic price environment.

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Presidential fleet operations gulp N4.24bn in six months – Read report details

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The Presidential Air Fleet received at least N4.24bn in disbursements between June and December 2025, the latest updates on GovSpend, a civic technology platform that tracks and analyses Federal Government spending, have revealed.

Findings by The PUNCH also revealed that the disbursements, made into the Presidential Air Fleet naira transit account operated by the Presidential Air Fleets (State House), were recorded in eight separate transactions across three months of June, July and December 2025, with the bulk of the transfers concentrated in July, when four transactions totalling N2.43bn were made in the space of a week.

A breakdown of the transactions shows that N1.285bn was disbursed on June 12, followed by N430m on July 24, N1.28bn on July 25, N92m on July 29, and N626m on July 31.

In December, three further disbursements were recorded. They include N9m on December 18, described in the GovSpend database as “Presidential Air Fleet forex transit funds,” N343.9m on December 30 and N90.9m on December 31.

Four of the eight transactions carry no accompanying description, listed simply as “None,” a pattern consistent with previous disbursements to the transit account.

Most disbursements to the Presidential Air Fleet transit account are labelled “Forex Transit Funds,” typically funds allocated for foreign exchange requirements to facilitate international transactions, covering expenses related to operations outside the country, including fuel purchases, maintenance or services in foreign currencies.

The new figures add to a growing cumulative spend that has accelerated significantly since Tinubu assumed office.

At least N26.38bn was spent on the operations of the Presidential Air Fleet from July 2023 to December 2024, with N14.15bn disbursed in 2024 alone.

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The Presidential Air Fleet’s total budget allocation stood at N17.32bn in 2025, declining to N14.70bn in 2026.

The reduction was driven mainly by decreased capital expenditure.

Engine overhaul projects across the fleet consumed N4.58bn in 2024, N8.65bn in 2025 and N6.05bn in 2026, bringing the three-year aggregate to N19.27bn.

Since 2017, under the Buhari administration, budgetary allocations for the fleet have shown a growing trend, with one exception in 2020, rising from N4.37bn in 2017 to N20.52bn in 2024, a 370 per cent increase in running costs over seven years.

In an interview with our correspondent, the General Secretary of the Aviation Round Table, Olumide Ohunayo, had blamed the meteoric rise on the age of some of the aircraft in the fleet and the declining value of the naira, as well as the “commercial use” of aircraft by the Nigerian Air Force.

Ohunayo explained, “The cost will definitely increase over the years because, for one, this issue of the naira against the dollar.

“As the naira keeps falling to the dollar, we will see a rise in cost because most of the costs of training crew and engineers and replacing aircraft parts are all in dollars.

“Also, some of these aircraft are not new. The older the aircraft, the higher the cost of maintenance and operation.

“Lastly, during these past years, terrorism and insecurity have increased in Nigeria, which has also affected the cost of insuring the aircraft.”

In late April 2024, Tinubu was compelled to charter a private jet to continue his journey to Saudi Arabia after the state-owned Gulfstream 550, which had been assigned to carry him, developed an unspecified technical fault in the Netherlands, forcing him to abandon the aircraft mid-tour.

See also  Nigeria’s Non-Oil Exports Hit $3.225bn In H1 2025

The episode had prompted the House of Representatives Committee on National Security and Intelligence to recommend the procurement of two new presidential aircraft.

In August 2024, the official Boeing 737 business jet for the President was replaced with an Airbus A330 purchased for $100m through service-wide votes.

The nearly 15-year-old plane, an ACJ330-200, VP-CAC (MSN 1053), is “spacious and furnished with state-of-the-art avionics, customised interior and communications system,” Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, said, adding “it will save Nigeria huge maintenance and fuel costs, running into millions of dollars yearly.”

From February through July 2025, the President flew a San Marino-registered BBJ (REG: T7-NAS).

Sources who spoke to one of our correspondents confirmed that the primary aircraft had been flown to South Africa to change its colours to reflect the office of the President. It was flown back in July 2025.

The Presidential Air Fleet comprises a fixed-wing fleet that includes the Airbus ACJ330-200, a Gulfstream G550, a Gulfstream G500, two Falcon 7Xs, a Hawker 4000 and a Challenger 605, three of which are reportedly unserviceable.

The rotor-wing fleet includes two Agusta 139s and two Agusta 101s, operated by the Nigerian Air Force under the supervision of the Office of the National Security Adviser.

The CEO of Centurion Security Limited, John Ojikutu, argued that the disbursements for the air fleet operations were justified considering all related expenses.

“That’s not a big deal. If they are going for repair, particularly for C-checks. It’s always around that range.

“They will fly it abroad, buy fuel, catering, and hotel bills are also involved; pilots will fly it back, and the figure likely includes far more than the direct cost of repairing the aircraft,” Ojikutu explained, adding that the figure likely includes far more than the direct cost of operating the aircraft.

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The Presidency did not respond to inquiries on the nature of the specific disbursements captured in the recent data.

As of the time of filing this report, calls to the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, went unanswered.

In an earlier interview with our correspondent, Onanuga had argued that the costs of maintaining the air fleet are not for the President but in the interest of Nigerians.

“It’s not President Tinubu’s plane; it belongs to the people of Nigeria, it is our property…the President did not buy a new jet; what he has is a refurbished jet, but it is a much newer model than the one President Buhari used.

“Nigerians should try to prioritise the safety of the President. I’m not sure anybody wishes our President to go and crash in the air.

“We want his safety so that he can hand it over to whoever wants to take over from him,” Onanuga said.

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