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FG eyes N796bn annually from 5% petrol surcharge

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• Consumers decry new fuel tax after subsidy removal as law begins Jan. 2026

The Federal Government may rake in N796bn annually from the introduction of a five per cent surcharge on locally produced and imported petrol, based on its new tax policy slated to take effect from January 1, 2026.

The five per cent surcharge on refined petroleum products is contained in the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, one of four tax reform bills signed into law by President Bola Tinubu on June 26, 2025. Our correspondent obtained a copy of the Act on Wednesday.

However, consumers have opposed the move, stressing that the government had earlier removed fuel subsidies and now plots to impose a five per cent surcharge on fuel, without considering the harsh economic realities nationwide.

This came as oil marketers stated that the five per cent surcharge may further hike the pump prices of refined petroleum products.

The surcharge forms part of government efforts to shore up non-oil revenues and promote fiscal sustainability amid mounting public debt and subsidy-related costs. The policy targets fossil fuel products provided or produced in Nigeria.

Fossil fuel products include petrol, diesel, kerosene, aviation fuel, and Compressed Natural Gas, among others. They are derived from the processing of fossil fuels such as coal, petroleum, and natural gas.

However, items exempted from the new tax are clean or renewable energy products, as well as household kerosene, cooking gas, and Compressed Natural Gas.

Findings by The PUNCH showed that the government would garner about N796bn annually from only petrol once the five per cent surcharge takes effect.

An analysis by our correspondent, using the volume of imported and refined petrol, showed that the government could earn N796bn based on the 2024 estimates of national consumption and refining capacity production data provided by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

This N796bn is purely for petrol and doesn’t include other fossil fuel derivatives such as diesel and aviation fuel.

A breakdown of data from the NMDPRA shows that the total volume of petrol consumed by Nigerians reached 18.75 billion litres in 2024. NMDPRA, an agency of the Federal Government, is the mid- and downstream regulator of the oil and gas industry.

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The 18.75 billion litres of petrol translates to about N15.93tn, using the average price of N850 for a litre of petrol consumed in Nigeria during the review period. Five per cent of N15.93tn represents N796bn, which is the sum that the Federal Government may rake in annually from only petrol once it implements the planned surcharge.

This, therefore, implies that the government’s earnings from the proposed surcharge on fossil fuel products (petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel) would be more than N796bn once the five per cent surcharge policy on refined petroleum products takes effect, after being approved by the Minister of Finance, as stated in the Act.

According to the law, the surcharge will be imposed on all “chargeable fossil fuel products” and will be calculated based on the retail price of the product. The Act stipulates that the surcharge will apply to a “chargeable transaction” such as the supply, sale, or payment for the product, “whichever occurs first”.

The law read in part, “A surcharge is imposed at five per cent on chargeable fossil fuel products provided or produced in Nigeria, and shall be collected at the time a chargeable transaction occurs.

“(1) For the purpose of imposing a surcharge on fossil fuel products, the chargeable transaction shall be the supply, sale, or payment, whichever occurs first. (2) Surcharge shall be computed based on the retail price of all chargeable fossil fuel products.”

The implementation date, however, remains undecided and is now subject to the approval of the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun. “The minister may, by an Order issued in the Official Gazette, indicate the effective date of commencement of the administration of the surcharge on fossil fuel products under this Chapter,” the Act said.

“The Service shall administer and collect the surcharge every month and may issue regulations for its administration,” a section of the Act reads. A surcharge is an additional fee or tax added to the price of a good or service beyond the base price.

The law tasks the Federal Inland Revenue Service, which will be renamed the Nigeria Revenue Service by 2026, with administering and collecting the surcharge every month. It also empowers the agency to issue further regulations for effective implementation.

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It further stated, “The surcharge under this Chapter shall not apply to the following fossil fuel products: (a) clean or renewable energy products; (b) household kerosene; (c) cooking gas; and (d) Compressed Natural Gas.

“(2) For the purpose of this section, ‘clean or renewable energy’ means energy from solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, or plant and animal waste, which are naturally replenishing, produce little or no environmental pollution or greenhouse gas emissions, and do not deplete over time.”

The Nigeria Tax Act is one of four tax laws signed into law by President Tinubu to overhaul the country’s tax framework. The others include the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Law, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, and the Nigeria Tax Administration Act.

The laws are aimed at enhancing revenue collection efficiency, promoting fiscal transparency, and supporting the implementation of Nigeria’s medium-term revenue strategy.

With rising government borrowing and growing fiscal pressures, the surcharge is expected to form part of new efforts to boost non-oil revenue, though its real impact will depend largely on how and when it is implemented.

Consumers kick

However, marketers, transport workers, farmers, human rights advocates, and civil society groups across Nigeria have raised opposition to the proposed implementation of the five per cent users’ charge on petrol and diesel pump prices.

The National Chairman of the Joint Drivers Welfare Association, Akintade Abiodun, accused the government of using Nigerians as “lab rats” for unpopular economic decisions.

The Association of Nigerian Refineries Petroleum Marketers also raised an alarm recently over the Federal Government’s plan to enforce a five per cent user charge on fuel pump prices through the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency, warning of severe operational and economic consequences for marketers and consumers.

The association’s National Chairman of the Board of Trustees, Usman Ali, disclosed this at a press conference. The association acknowledged the past failures of the subsidy system, which it described as riddled with corruption, inefficiency, and massive fiscal leakages.

It warned that the removal of the subsidy must be matched with robust regulatory frameworks to avoid a resurgence of malpractice in the downstream sector. The association called for digital tracking systems, transparent procurement procedures, and effective enforcement to improve accountability and reduce losses

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The association, however, expressed conditional support for the proposed levy, stating that while improving Nigeria’s road infrastructure was necessary, the charge must be implemented with caution and tied to visible and immediate road rehabilitation.

“The powers that be in this country are taking us for a ride. They think we won’t react just because we were quiet the last time they increased fuel. Now they want to add another cost on top of the already expensive pump price. This must be reversed,” he said.

On its part, the Chancellor of the International Society for Social Justice and Human Rights, Jackson Omenazu, chided the government for pursuing policies that are “anti-people.” He warned that growing public frustration could explode if authorities continue to ignore the sufferings of citizens.

Omenazu said, “How can lawmakers sit in the comfort of their offices, after increasing their own allowances, to approve policies that will send poor Nigerians to early graves? What kind of leadership is this?

IPMAN reacts

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria has warned that the five per cent surcharge on petroleum products may lead to an increase in the pump price of fuel across the country.

The association explained that although the new levy would be factored into the pre-pricing structure by industry players such as refineries and marketers, the financial impact would eventually be transferred to consumers.

National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Chief Chinedu Ukadike, who spoke in an interview with The PUNCH on Wednesday, said the development could complicate Nigeria’s already fragile downstream pricing environment.

“The only implication is that industry players like the refineries will add it to their pre-pricing costs, but not post-pricing costs,” Ukadike said. “But indirectly, it would also lead to an increase in the pump price.” He said the association is closely monitoring how the policy will be implemented.

According to him, “Any additional charge on the cost of importation or refining of petroleum products will, by extension, reflect in the final retail price. This is because marketers operate on thin margins and cannot absorb such levies without a ripple effect.”

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Nigeria crude output misses OPEC quota eighth straight month

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Nigeria’s average daily crude production is still below the 1.5-million-barrel quota set for the country by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

According to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report released in April, Nigeria’s crude production in March was 1.38 mbpd. While there was a 69,000 bpd increase from the 1.31 mbpd recorded in February, the figure is still 117,000 bpd below the OPEC quota.

The figures for February indicate a month-on-month decline of 146,000 barrels per day, widening the country’s shortfall from its OPEC production allocation. This is the eighth consecutive month the country has failed to meet the OPEC quota since July 2025.

It could be recalled that although Nigeria recorded a marginal improvement in January, when production rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459 mbpd, the rebound was short-lived as output fell significantly in February.

Earlier data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission had also shown that crude oil production weakened at the end of 2025. Production declined from 1.436 mbpd in November 2025 to 1.422 mbpd in December, before recovering slightly in January.

In 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell below its OPEC quota in nine months of the year, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July. Nigeria opened 2025 strongly, producing 1.54 mbpd in January, about 38,700 barrels per day above its OPEC allocation.

However, production slipped below the quota in February at 1.47 mbpd and weakened further in March to 1.40 mbpd, marking one of the widest shortfalls during the year.

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Although output recovered modestly in April (1.49 mbpd) and May (1.45 mbpd), Nigeria remained below its OPEC ceiling until June, when production edged up to 1.51 mbpd, slightly exceeding the quota.

The country sustained the momentum in July with 1.51 mbpd before falling below the benchmark again in subsequent months.

Our correspondent reports that the figures recorded in the first quarter of 2026 are below the government’s budget benchmark.

Recently, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission said oil production (crude and condensate) reached 1.8 mbpd in March.

However, an official of the commission told The PUNCH that the recovery started in mid-March after all assets on turnaround maintenance resumed operations. The official expressed optimism that crude production would meet the OPEC quota in April.

The PUNCH reports that Nigeria’s inability to meet its OPEC production quota is not only affecting its oil export earnings but also adversely impacting domestic refineries that are starved of feedstock for their operations.

Recall that The PUNCH exclusively reported on March 9, 2026, that the Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, had begun moves to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through third-party international traders in a bid to sustain domestic refining operations.

“Leveraging our global crude trading network, we are sourcing third-party crude for the refinery at prices that are competitive with prevailing international market rates,” a senior official at NNPC, who spoke in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, had told The PUNCH.

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The report showed that several heavyweight OPEC producers implemented sharp cuts. Saudi Arabia’s output plunged by 2.35 mbpd to 7.76 mbpd, while Iraq slashed production by 2.23 mbpd to 1.9 mbpd.

The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait also posted steep declines of 1.48 mbpd and 1.380 mbpd, respectively.

Venezuela increased production by 75,000 bpd to 1.1 mbpd, Congo added 16,000 bpd to reach 307,000 bpd, and Libya gained 15,000 bpd to 1.3 mbpd. Algeria recorded a marginal drop of 2,000 bpd.

The report noted that totals for the entire OPEC group were not available due to independent rounding and incomplete data for some members. It also clarified that Saudi Arabia’s supply to the market in March stood at 7.76 mbpd, while its actual production was 6.97 mbpd. Nothing was recorded for Gabon and the crisis-ridden Iran.

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Dangote plans pan-African IPO for $20bn refinery

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The President of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, is planning a landmark cross-border public offering of his $20bn oil refinery, in a move that could reshape capital markets across Africa and deepen regional investor participation, a new report by Bloomberg revealed on Monday.

The proposed listing, which will see shares of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals floated on multiple African stock exchanges, is being positioned as the first pan-African initial public offering of its scale.

Details of the plan emerged following a high-level meeting in Lagos, which involved Dangote and the chief executives of several African bourses under the umbrella of the African Securities Exchanges Association.

Chief Executive Officer of the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Frank Mwiti, who attended the meeting, disclosed that discussions centred on structuring a cross-border listing framework that would allow investors across the continent to participate in the refinery’s ownership.

“The plan is to structure a pan-African IPO,” Mwiti said after the meeting, noting that the initiative would require coordination among exchanges to ease regulatory barriers and facilitate seamless trading across jurisdictions.

A spokesman for the Dangote Group confirmed that the meeting took place but declined to provide further details on the structure and timeline of the proposed offering.

The development comes months after Dangote unveiled plans to list about 10 per cent of the refinery on the Nigerian Exchange Group in 2026, a move widely seen as part of efforts to unlock value and broaden the company’s investor base.

To drive the offering, Dangote has appointed a consortium of financial advisers, including Stanbic IBTC Capital Limited, Vetiva Advisory Services Limited, and FirstCap Limited.

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Chief Executive Officer of FirstCap, Ukandu Ukandu, confirmed the appointments, stating that the advisers were already working on the transaction structure.

The report noted that multi-exchange listing could significantly deepen liquidity in African capital markets, while positioning Nigeria as a major hub for cross-border investments, especially as the country eyes a return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Markets Index.

They added that the offering could also provide much-needed capital to support Dangote’s aggressive expansion strategy.

Currently, the refinery, the largest single-train facility in the world, has a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. However, Dangote plans to more than double this to 1.4 million barrels per day within the next three years, a scale that would rival global refining giants, including facilities owned by Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani.

To fund this expansion, the company recently secured backing from the African Export-Import Bank, which underwrote $2.5bn out of a $4bn syndicated financing facility.

The refinery expansion forms part of a broader $40bn investment programme outlined by Dangote over the next five years, covering petrochemicals, fertiliser production, and energy infrastructure.

The pan-African IPO is also being driven by rising demand for refined petroleum products across the continent, as several African countries continue to face supply challenges exacerbated by global geopolitical tensions.

Since commencing operations, the Lagos-based refinery has begun exporting refined fuel to multiple African markets, helping to reduce reliance on imports from Europe and the Middle East.

Further discussions on the proposed listing were also held between Dangote and officials of the Nigerian Exchange Group, alongside representatives of member exchanges of the African Securities Exchanges Association, focusing on frameworks that would allow investors from different jurisdictions to seamlessly access the IPO.

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The deal could mark a turning point for Africa’s financial markets by fostering greater integration, improving capital mobilisation, and offering retail and institutional investors across the continent a rare opportunity to own a stake in one of Africa’s most strategic industrial assets.

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Electricity Power subsidy hits N418bn, losses exceed N300bn

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The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission has disclosed that the Federal Government incurred a subsidy obligation of N418.79bn in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as inefficiencies across the electricity value chain led to losses exceeding N300bn during the period.

This was contained in the commission’s 2025 fourth-quarter report, which also highlighted declining remittances, high distribution losses, grid instability, and a marginal drop in available generation capacity.

According to the report, total invoices issued by generation companies for electricity produced in the quarter amounted to N804.93bn. However, due to non-cost-reflective tariffs, the government absorbed 52.30 per cent of the cost.

The commission stated, “It is important to note that due to the absence of cost-reflective tariffs across all DisCos, the government incurred a subsidy obligation of N418.79bn; this represents a N39.96bn (-8.71 per cent) reduction in FGN subsidy compared to 2025/Q3.”

The report added that the subsidy covered more than half of generation costs, leaving distribution companies to pay only N386.13bn. “The government subsidy accounted for 52.30 per cent of the total GenCo invoice, which is a 6.60pp decrease compared to 2025/Q3,” the commission noted.

Despite the intervention, the sector recorded significant commercial losses. While the total value of electricity supplied to distribution companies stood at N969.19bn, only N795.06bn was billed to customers.

“The naira value of the total energy offtake by all DisCos in 2025/Q4 was N969.19bn, and the total energy billed was N795.06bn, which translates to a billing efficiency of 82.03 per cent.

The billing efficiency of 82.03 per cent recorded during the quarter represents a decrease of 0.66pp compared to 2025/Q3 (82.69 per cent). At an aggregate level, DisCos cumulatively recorded billing losses of N174.12bn in 2025/Q4,” the report said.

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In addition, high aggregate technical, commercial, and collection losses further weakened sector finances. “The weighted average ATC&C loss across all DisCos in 2025/Q4 was 34.9 per cent, translating to a cumulative revenue loss of N139.19bn across all DisCos,” the report noted.

Combined, the billing losses of N174.12bn and ATC&C revenue losses of N139.19bn indicate inefficiency-driven losses of over N300bn during the quarter. The report also showed that distribution companies received 7,991.22GWh of electricity but billed customers for only 6,614.57GWh, indicating persistent energy accounting inefficiencies.

“Although the total energy received by all DisCos in 2025/Q4 was 7,991.22GWh, the energy billed to end-use customers was only 6,614.57GWh,” it stated.

Collection performance also declined compared to the previous quarter. Market remittances to upstream participants also weakened. DisCos were required to remit N471.66bn but paid only N437.27bn, leaving an outstanding balance of N34.39bn.

This translates to a remittance performance of 92.71 per cent in 2025/Q4 compared to the 95.21 per cent recorded in 2025/Q3.

On operational performance, the commission said available generation capacity averaged 5,400.38 megawatts, representing a slight decline from the third quarter, with several plants recording reduced output.

Seventeen power plants recorded decreases in available generation capacities in 2025/Q4 relative to 2025/Q3, it said.

However, energy generation improved during the quarter. Average hourly generation increased to 4,452.71MWh/h, resulting in total generation of 9,831.58GWh. “The average hourly generation of the grid-connected power plants increased by 273.56MWh/h (+6.55 per cent),” the report stated.

Grid stability concerns also persisted. System frequency and voltage levels fell outside prescribed operating limits. “In 2025/Q4, the average lower daily (49.38Hz) and average upper daily (50.65Hz) system frequencies were outside the normal operating limits,” the commission said.

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The report stated that there was one incident of system disturbance on the national grid in 2025/Q4. A partial collapse of the grid occurred on December 29. The commission warned that the current subsidy regime exposes government finances to uncertainty.

“The current open-ended subsidy regime leaves the FGN exposed to indeterminate subsidy obligation,” it stated, citing generation cost variations and supply mix as key drivers.

The report added that the Q4 subsidy declined partly due to increased energy allocation to premium customers on Band A feeders. “The key driver of this reduction is the increase in energy allocated to Band A customers from 40 per cent to 45 per cent,” the commission said.

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