The Federal Government has lifted its ban on fuel imports, granting six new licences for the importation of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), following concerns over supply amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The move marks a sharp reversal of Nigeria’s recent policy aimed at reducing dependence on imported fuel.

This comes as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery grapples with mounting foreign exchange losses, highlighting the challenges of the naira-for-crude arrangement. A senior management official of the $20bn Lekki-based firm disclosed that the deal’s inefficiency has eroded potential earnings, even as regulators seek to stabilise domestic fuel supply.

Consequently, oil marketers and domestic crude refiners have called on the Federal Government to boost crude supply to Dangote and other local refineries to shield the country from fuel scarcity, as is being reported in other countries due to the Middle East crisis.

A new report by S&P Global obtained on Wednesday revealed that the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority granted licences for the importation of about 180,000 metric tonnes of petrol. This comes barely weeks after the regulator insisted that domestic refining capacity was sufficient to meet Nigeria’s fuel demand.

A senior official at the regulator confirmed that the decision was taken to address a sudden supply gap triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The report read, “Nigeria has relaxed its gasoline import restrictions for the first time since October by issuing a round of new licenses to local marketers, according to an official at its downstream regulator.

“The NMDPRA did not issue import licenses for gasoline in February on the strength of the improved domestic supply then. But the Middle East crisis came, and we have had a shortfall. So to bridge the gap, import licenses were issued.”

The spokesperson of the NMDPRA, George Ene-Ita, did not respond to enquiries when contacted to confirm the report, up to the time this report was filed.

Further findings by one of our correspondents revealed that the importing marketers include Bono Energy, Pinnacle, AYM Shafa, Matrix, A.A. Rano, and Nipco, each expected to import about 30,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit, equivalent to approximately 40.5 million litres and a total of 243 million litres.

The development signals a shift in the government’s downstream strategy, which had recently leaned towards reducing dependence on imported fuel following increased output from local refineries.

On March 11, the NMDPRA announced a pause in the issuance of petrol import licences, citing improved domestic production. Industry data at the time showed that local refineries supplied about 36.5 million litres of petrol per day in February 2026, compared to just three million litres contributed by imports.

Officials had argued that the country no longer needed fuel imports, raising expectations of a gradual transition to self-sufficiency.

“It’s correct that we’ve not issued import licences this year. It is obvious that local production has met national requirements. So, there’s no need for importation,” a source at the NMDPRA had earlier told The PUNCH.

However, the latest approvals suggest that supply stability remains fragile, especially in the face of global disruptions.

The Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, confirmed that the midstream and downstream regulatory authority has started issuing import permits. He said the number of permits issued so far is low, showing that local refining is still dominant. However, he noted that imports are needed to stabilise the market.

According to him, energy insecurity could weaken Nigeria’s economy, so a balance between local supply and imports is necessary.

He said, “Yes, it’s true. NMDPRA has begun issuing import permits; the number of permits issued lately is relatively low, which shows local refining still dominates, but we need to stabilise the market through imports. Energy insecurity could collapse Nigeria’s economy, so Importation is needed for a balance.”

Dangote FX losses

The senior management official of the Dangote Group, who spoke to The PUNCH in confidence due to the sensitive nature of the matter, stated that the Dangote refinery was supposed to supply the same volume of crude it gets under the naira-for-crude deal back to the Nigerian market as refined petroleum products.

However, the official said the company now supplies more than what it gets from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited instead of exporting the same to earn dollars. While commending President Bola Tinubu for approving the naira-for-crude deal, the source maintained that foreign exchange would have been earned if the refinery had focused on exporting its products.

“The naira-for-crude deal was conceived by His Excellency, the President. He wanted us to supply the petroleum products in naira to the extent crude is supplied to us in naira. But we are ending up supplying much more products than the crude we receive, thus losing forex which we would have gained if we had exported the products,” the official stated.

The source stressed that the refinery was not just asking that crude should be sold in naira, but was requesting that the feedstock be made available to the facility in compliance with the Petroleum Industry Act, which enforces the sale of crude to local refineries before export.

“Under the Petroleum Industry Act, export of crude before meeting the local demand is clearly prohibited. So, we are only asking for the supply of crude to meet the primary purpose of the refinery, which is to add value to the raw materials from the country, instead of exporting the raw material. We are not asking anyone to accept the payment in naira,” he stated.

Meanwhile, during a live television programme on Arise News TV on Wednesday, the Chief Executive Officer of the Dangote refinery, David Bird, said the facility was buying Nigerian crude in foreign markets at a premium after it had earlier requested the product locally before being shipped abroad.

According to Bird, the company receives far below its agreed crude oil supply under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude deal. Bird stated that the refinery currently gets only five cargoes of crude monthly instead of the expected 13 to 15 cargoes.

He said the shortfall has been affecting the refinery’s ability to optimise local crude as it keeps importing feedstock from other countries.

“What we see under that agreement, we should be getting about 13 to 15 cargoes a month. And that’s what we could process to meet the domestic fuel requirements of Nigeria. Currently, we’re only getting five. So, that’s an underperformance against that pre-agreed volume contract,” he said.

According to him, the gap has forced the refinery to source preferred Nigerian crude grades from the international market at a premium while also paying freight costs and other costs that add to the prices of fuel at the gantry and the pumps.

The CEO explained that the naira-for-crude policy was designed to stabilise Nigeria’s foreign exchange market rather than provide financial advantages to the refinery, noting that the company still purchases crude at international benchmark prices. He clarified to Nigerians that buying crude in naira is not a subsidy, as it is being thought by some people.

“The naira-for-crude deal is not there to benefit the Dangote refinery. That is a fundamental misunderstanding. The programme is to provide resilience to foreign exchange. It is the benefit of the country to process domestic crude in the domestic currency,” Bird said.

Despite the supply challenges, Bird said the refinery is currently operating at its full installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, supplying both domestic and regional markets.

He, however, noted that global oil market disruptions, particularly tensions in the Middle East, have increased operational costs across the refinery’s value chain, including freight, insurance, and logistics.

Bird added that fuel pricing remains tied to international market forces. He emphasised that the refinery operates without subsidies or discounts on crude inputs. He called for improved crude allocation and long-term strategic planning, including building national reserves, to strengthen supply chain resilience in Nigeria’s oil sector.

Supporting the call for crude supply to domestic refineries, Olatide stressed that adequate crude supply to local refineries is non-negotiable, as it will help reduce fuel prices, stabilise the naira, and support economic growth.

He added that the naira-for-crude policy is not working effectively and should be reviewed. He also suggested considering subsidised crude to protect pump prices from global oil shocks.

“I have advocated severally that adequate crude supply to local refineries is non-negotiable as it will help drive pump prices down, stabilise our naira and grow our economy. The naira-for-crude policy is practically inefficient, and it needs to be reviewed. Also, subsidised crude should be considered as it is the only way oil shocks won’t have a direct effect on our pump prices,” he added.

Domestic crude demand

Oil marketers and refiners on Wednesday called for increased crude supply to domestic refineries as part of urgent measures to address the rising cost of petroleum products, warning that continued price increases were placing pressure on households and businesses.

They said rising fuel prices in Nigeria can be curtailed if the government adopts a holistic value-chain approach and increases crude allocation to domestic refineries.

The spokesperson for the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, said in a chat with our correspondent that refining alone would not automatically reduce pump prices. Idoko identified three key drivers of petrol prices in the country, namely international crude oil prices, exchange rate pressure, and cost of logistics and distribution.

He added that domestic refining would not sufficiently lower prices if these factors remained unresolved. “So even with local refining, if these factors are not addressed, pump prices will still rise,” he stated.

The CORAN spokesperson, however, stressed that increasing crude supply to local refineries would help reduce costs if properly implemented. “More crude allocation to Dangote and other modular refineries will definitely help, but it must be done properly and strategically,” he said.

He urged the government to strictly enforce the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation. “Strictly enforce the domestic crude supply obligation. Local refineries must get priority access to crude before export. This ensures a steady feedstock supply and reduces dependence on imports,” he said.

Idoko also called for a fair domestic pricing model for crude supplied to local refineries, saying, “Crude sold to Nigerian refineries should not carry full international export costs (like freight and insurance). A fair local pricing template will reduce refining costs and ultimately pump prices,” he said.

He further recommended stabilising the naira-for-crude framework and boosting crude production. “Refineries should be able to buy crude in naira (or with reduced FX exposure). This will limit the impact of exchange rate volatility on fuel prices. More production means more barrels available for both export and local refining without supply tension,” he added.

The CORAN spokesman also urged support for modular refineries alongside the Dangote refinery. “While Dangote is critical due to its size, the government must also support modular refineries (Waltersmith, Aradel, Duport, etc.) to create competition and improve supply stability,” he said.

He also highlighted high logistics costs as a major contributor to pump prices, arguing that high transportation, port charges, road issues, and multiple levies all add to pump prices. Fixing these, he urged, will significantly reduce the final cost to consumers.

On whether more crude allocation would help, Idoko said it would make a major difference, but it must be structured properly. “Yes—very significantly. But it must be predictable, fairly priced, and extended to all operational refineries,” he said.

He concluded that strategic allocation and pricing of crude remained key to long-term stability. “Nigeria must not just refine locally but must also price and allocate crude strategically for domestic energy security. That is the real way to sustainably bring down fuel prices,” CORAN recommended.

Meanwhile, in a statement issued on Wednesday by the spokesperson of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Joseph Obele, the association urged the Federal Government to implement temporary interventions to cushion the effect of higher fuel prices across the country.

The retailers said the recent steady increase in the pump price of petrol had placed “significant financial pressure on citizens, businesses, and the broader economy”. According to the National President of PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry, the ripple effects were already visible nationwide.

He said, “The ripple effects are evident in rising transportation costs, increased prices of goods and services, and a general strain on the cost of living.”

PETROAN noted that while global crude oil price fluctuations influence domestic pricing, urgent steps were required to mitigate hardship. Gillis-Harry warned that without timely intervention, the economic burden could worsen.

“Without timely intervention, the economic burden on households and small businesses may worsen, leading to reduced productivity and heightened economic instability,” he said.

The marketers specifically called for improved crude supply to strengthen local refining, urging the government to enhance the framework of the naira-for-crude policy. They stated that one of the urgent measures required was a “strategic intervention to boost the supply framework of the Naira-for-Crude policy to enhance local refining and stabilise pricing”.

The association also asked the government to direct the NNPC to fully restart operations at the Port Harcourt refinery to “dismantle monopolistic tendencies and improve domestic supply”.

Other recommendations by the association included transportation relief for Nigerians, temporary food subsidies, and accelerated promotion of alternative fuels such as compressed natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas.

PETROAN further called for sustained engagement with stakeholders to ensure energy security, pricing stability, and a resilient supply chain. The statement added that the association remained committed to working with the government and industry players to ensure the availability and efficient distribution of petroleum products nationwide.

“While we acknowledge the ongoing reforms in the sector, we appeal for urgent and decisive action to alleviate current hardships and protect the welfare of Nigerians,” PETROAN said.